90年代国际资本流动的特征与趋势

国际资本流动已经成为当今世界各国的经济跨越国家界限、超越制度规范、相互依存，向运行整体进发的重要纽带与巨大动力。本文研究国际资本流动的特征及其成因，不仅有助于认识当今国际投资格局的动态变化，更将有利于把握全球经济发展的趋势：证券化融资在国际资本流动中将继续保持较大发展；发展中国家和转型国家在国际资本流动中的影响将有所提高；国际协调和国际多边机制越来越成为处理国际金融风险和国际债务危机的主导方式     

国际制裁与目标国技术创新——基于跨国数据的经验分析

本文研究了国际制裁对目标国技术创新的作用机制和影响效果，并基于1988—2018年91个国家非平衡面板数据及系列计量方法对理论命题进行了实证检验。结果表明：样本期间，国际制裁显著抑制了目标国技术创新水平的提升，这一结果在更换解释变量、被解释变量、采取不同的模型设定及对内生性进行处理后仍然成立；从驱动因素来看，制裁的发生能够通过减少或取消国际人员交流、阻碍国际贸易和国际资本流动来降低目标国的技术创新水平；进一步分析表明，公共教育投资越多、产业结构越发达以及金融发展水平越高的国家，国际制裁对技术创新的不利影响越小。本文还根据研究结论，就目标国如何应对国际制裁和提高技术创新水平提出了相应政策建议。     

人口老龄化对储蓄、投资和国际资本流动的影响：一个初步的文献综述

本文就人口老龄化对储蓄、投资和国际资本流动影响的相关文献进行了回顾。根据生命周期假说和永久收入假说,人口老龄化将带来储蓄的下降,并依据新古典经济增长理论,导致投资的减少。然而在人口老龄化对储蓄和投资影响的实证研究方面存在混合结论。由于人口老龄化对储蓄和投资的相对影响程度不同,将引发储蓄一投资失衡,并在全球经济一体化及老龄化不平衡的背景下。造成国际收支失衡,由此推动资本进行跨界流动。不过,国际资本的流动也在一定程度上缓和了人口老龄化给一国经济和金融带来的冲击。     

货币政策外生冲击与国际直接投资流动

本文基于企业跨国生产决策行为，通过构建动态一般均衡模型，分析了汇率内生变化条件下货币政策冲击对国际直接投资流动的影响。根据1980—2018年国别面板数据构建的PVAR模型和根据中国数据构建的VAR模型的研究显示：第一，汇率渠道是货币政策影响国际直接投资流动的关键机制，东道国扩张性的货币政策冲击会通过影响其货币对外贬值进而促进国际直接投资流入。第二，汇率制度和资本账户管制是影响货币政策的国际直接投资流动效应的重要因素，固定汇率制度和资本账户管制降低了货币政策对国际直接投资流动的影响。汇率制度作用于货币政策冲击对汇率变动的影响，资本账户管制作用于汇率变动对国际直接投资流动的影响。第三，中国货币政策冲击对国际直接投资流入的影响幅度更大，国际直接投资投入对中国货币政策冲击的反应速度更快且持续时间更长，货币政策变化是解释中国国际直接投资流入变动的重要因素。     

基于我国养老金财务平衡与可持续性的研究

养老金体系是影响资本市场发展的重要因素,它关系到每个公民的切身福祉,是优化个人资源在退休前后的跨期配置,也是社会稳定的基石,充分体现了金融学的灵魂。而现行基本养老保险制度在目前老龄化危机持续加深背景下,在未来是否具有足够的债务偿付能力,是关系我国社会稳定与发展大局。文章分析了人口老龄化背景下基础养老金缺口的财政支付能力,提出政府建立起稳定的养老金财政补贴机制等建议。     

人口结构、利率政策与养老金替代率

养老金替代率是衡量养老代际公平的核心参数之一。通过构建内生个人养老金的两期世代交叠模型，考察了不同人口结构下利率变动对中国多支柱养老金替代率的影响机制。研究结果表明，人口结构转变会令中国总和养老金替代率趋于下行，实际利率走低将导致第三支柱替代率进一步下跌，二者叠加将使得总和养老金替代率与社会平均收入的增长背道而驰。政策干预下，延迟退休有望延缓总和养老金替代率下降并扩大降息的政策空间，但非长久之策；提高第三支柱参与率可减轻人口老龄化对总和养老金替代率的负向压力，但增强了替代率的利率敏感性。因此，政府应尽快落实个人养老金制度、鼓励提高第三支柱参与率，同时审慎评估降息对代际公平的外溢性负效应。     

养老金参数式改革刍议——国际经验及对中国的启示

近30年来,养老金的庞大开支已成为人口老龄化国家进行养老金制度改革的重要出发点和落脚点之一。养老金参数式改革是将养老金支出分解为覆盖率、替代率、老年赡养率和就业率四个影响因素,以此对影响养老金支出的关键变量进行调整,达到养老金收支平衡的目的。参数式改革已在发达国家得到了广泛应用,建议中国重新审视城镇职工基本养老保险的制度架构,建立养老金自动平衡机制和激励机制,改善中国的养老金收支状况。     

中国工业的资本收益率测算

资本收益率是影响养老金改革的关键因素。在分析养老金改革时，大多数国家采用Feldstein提出的方法测算资本收益率。本首先估算了1982-2000年全国工业企业和国有工业企业的净利息支出，并首次用Feldstein的方法估计1982-2000年全国工业企业和国有工业企业的资本收益率。结果显示从1996年起，全国工业企业的资本收益率基本稳定在6％左右，国有工业企业的资本收益率约低1.5个百分点。     

英国应对人口老龄化的经验及对中国的启示

英国是世界上第一个工业化国家，也是人口老龄化国家。英国在应对人口老龄化方面积累了较为丰富的经验，采取了推迟退休、倡导积极老龄化、利用国际移民、推行以促进就业为导向的社会政策和大力开发人力资源等措施，较为成功地应对了老龄化时代的社会经济问题。但英国的养老金面临较大的财政风险，国际移民面临本土适应问题。中国可以参考英国分权管理、责任下放的政府治理体制，建立有梯度的养老金制度，建立广覆盖、低费用、以社区卫生服务为主的全民基本医疗保障制度。     

新兴市场国家国际资本流动“突然停止”的影响因素分析--基于金融脆弱性的视角

在金融全球化的背景下,脆弱的国内金融体系会波及国际资本市场,导致国际资本流动发生剧烈波动甚至“突然停止”。运用面板Probit模型考察1976-2012年22个新兴市场国家国际资本流动“突然停止”的影响因素,着重探讨一国金融脆弱性对国际资本流动“突然停止”的影响。实证研究结果表明：一国的金融脆弱性对国际资本流动“突然停止”具有显著的负影响;金融开放会放大一国的金融脆弱程度,进一步提高国际资本流动“突然停止”的发生概率。     

Role of Migration in Pension Integration within the European Union

Although the European Union has made notable steps towards completion of the economic and monetary union, fiscal convergence, banking union and capital markets union, potential integration of pensions and social security has not advanced as much. As the European Union countries have experienced increased migration/refugee flows over the last decade, the question is whether migrants/refugees can influence the adequacy of member-state pension schemes and potentially allow for a Pan-European Pension Plan. Consequently, the purpose of this paper is to investigate, as a prelude to pension integration, whether immigration and emigration affect pension assets, liabilities, and the asset-liability gap and to identify the determinants of this gap. Using generalized method of moments estimation, evidence is found that increases in immigration and decreases in emigration (as a percent of the population) lead to an increase in the assets of autonomous pension funds. Analogously, increases in valid permits (as a percent of the population) and decreases in unemployment (as a percent of the labor force) result in a decrease in liabilities (benefits) of autonomous pension funds. The novelties of this study are the identification of factors that affect pension assets, liabilities and the asset-liability gap at a country level and the contribution of immigration from non-EU countries to closing the asset-liability gap. The findings can be used to draft pension and migration policies at a pan-European level.

     

Pension Reform, Capital Markets and the Rate of Return

Abstract. This paper discusses the consequences of population aging and a fundamental pension reform – that is, a shift towards more pre‐funding – for capital markets in Germany. We use a stylized closed‐economy, overlapping‐generations model to compare the effects of the recent German pension reform with those of a more decisive reform that would freeze the current pay‐as‐you‐go contribution rate and thus result in a larger funded component of the pension system. We predict rates of return to capital under both reform scenarios over a long horizon, taking demographic projections as given. Our main finding is that the future decrease in the rate of return is much smaller than often claimed in the public debate. Our simulations show that the capital stock will decrease once the baby‐boom generations enter retirement, even if there were no fundamental pension reform. The corresponding decrease in the rate of return, the direct effect of population aging, is around 0.7 percentage points. While the capital market effects of the recent German pension reform are marginal, the rate of return to capital would decrease by an additional 0.5 percentage points under the more decisive reform proposal.     

浅析新形势下澳大利亚养老基金改革

澳大利亚三大支柱养老保障模式拥有多层次的养老保障基金保证其制度的顺利运行.但是,人口老龄化和全球金融危机为其将来的顺利发展提出了严峻的挑战.为此,澳大利亚政府一方面推出一系列措施对超级年金进行改革,另一方面建立未来基金,专门应对预期可能出现的养老保障资金不足的风险.这些措施值得各国借鉴和学习.     

Social security and economic integration

This letter analyzes the impact of economic integration on capital accumulation and capital flows when countries differ in their social security systems. Funding and early retirement both foster capital accumulation relative to pay-as-you-go pensions with flexible retirement. When economies integrate, both imply capital outflow possibly resulting in utility losses.     

International asset market, nonconvergence, and endogenous fluctuations

We develop an overlapping generations model with re-tradeable paper assets and capital accumulation to analyze the interaction between the real economy and an international asset market. The world consists of two homogeneous countries, which differ only in their initial levels of capital. Consumers who live for two periods transfer wealth over time and across countries by holding international mutual funds which pay stochastic dividends. The optimal portfolio decisions of consumers do not necessarily induce convergence of incomes between the two countries. Moreover, interaction through the asset market induces endogenous fluctuation of capital flows between the rich and the poor country.     

A Solution to Two Paradoxes of International Capital Flows

International capital flows from rich to poor countries can be regarded as either too small(the Lucas paradox in a one-sector model)or too large(when compared with the logic of factor price equalization in a two-sector model).To resolve the paradoxes,we introduce a non-neoclassical model which features financial contracts and firm heterogeneity.In our model,free trade in goods does not imply equal returns to capital across countries.In addition,rich patterns of gross capital flows emerge as a function of financial and property rights institutions.A poor country with an inefficient financial system may simultaneously experience an outflow of financial capital but an inflow of FDI,resulting in a small net flow.In comparison,a country with a low capital-to-labor ratio but a high risk of expropriation may experience an outflow of financial capital without a compensating inflow of FDI.     

Venture Capital Funds, Financial Foreign Direct Investment and the Generation of Local Comparative Advantage in the Technology Sector in Israel

The rapid development of a new comparative advantage in thehi-tech sector in Israel in the period 1995–2005 providesan example of a new form of foreign direct investment (FDI).Unlike traditional FDI, this new form of international investment,that we dubbed financial foreign direct investment (FFDI), involvescapital flows from developed countries to small countries andto the emerging markets. The providers of this capital, definedin our study as "sector-specific capital", are financial andrisk intermediaries like venture capital funds and private equityfunds. Like multinational enterprises they transfer factorsof production across borders seeking to maximize their value.In doing so, they are a part of a process of generating newcomparative advantages. We focus on the case of Israel and showthat, due to the inherent asymmetry, it takes government actionto trigger the process of importing sector-specific capitalto Israel primarily from the US capital market, but once theprocess has begun, it has led to economic growth via reducingtangible and intangible trade costs, creating trust and thusgenerating competitive advantage for innovative technology firmsfrom Israel in the global markets.     

International capital flows and convergence in the neoclassical growth model

To analyze how capital mobility affects economic growth and convergence, this paper will use the analytical solution to the neoclassical growth model with a constant saving rate, beginning with the closed-economy Solow growth model. An introduction to international capital flows will follow. In an open economy, free capital mobility assures an instantaneous convergence in interest rates that, under a perfect competence situation, implies the instantaneous convergence in income levels among homogeneous countries. Taking into account this question and to reconcile these results with empirical evidence, that is, with the gradual convergence observed, the assumption is introduced that in spite of free capital mobility, there are international credit restrictions. In this case, we will show how the rate of convergence depends on the international capital inflows received. The authors would like to thank Maria Isabel Abradelo for her help in translating this paper.     

国际资本流动风险及有效监管

本文通过分析国际间资本流入,尤其是短期的投机资本流入和对外债务资金流入的风险,以及资本流出的风险,揭示了田际资本流动对中国经济所造成的巨大影响,同时,针对目前国际资本流动的主角--私人资本流动的现象进行了剖析,提出了加强对国际资本流动的监管,提高金融监管有效性的政策建议.     

Demographic trends and international capital flows in an integrated world

This paper examines the impact of projected demographic trends on international capital flows. The analysis builds upon a ten-region overlapping generations' model of the world economy where capital is mobile across regions. Results show that, over the first half of the century, emerging regions will finance the demand of capital coming from the developed world where population aging is relatively advanced. In particular, the findings suggest that in the coming decades China will be the world's main creditor region. However, in the second half of the century, India will take over this leading position because of the predicted decline in the Chinese labor force. An additional analysis demonstrates that the economic consequences of demographic changes depend on the degree of capital market integration between regions.