Optimal variance- and efficiency-balanced designs for one- and two-way elimination of heterogeneity

Summary In this paper, a series ofE-optimal non-binary variance balanced (block or row-column) designs and a series ofE-optimal non-binary efficiency balanced (block or row-column) designs are provided in certain broad classes of competing designs. Furthermore, their high efficiencies by the usualA- andD-optimality criteria are shown.     

A general construction of E(s 2)-optimal large supersaturated designs

A general method for construction of E(s ²)-optimal, two-level supersaturated designs (SSDs) with the equal occurrence property, from supplementary difference sets is introduced. It is proved that SSDs constructed in this way are E(s ²)-optimal. Comparisons are made with previous works and it is shown that the proposed method gives promising results for the construction of E(s ²)-optimal large SSDs.     

A relationship between efficiencies of marginal designs and the product design

We derive theD- andG-efficiencies of product designs in a multifactor experiment in terms of theD- andG-efficiencies of the designs in the marginal models. Work supported by grants Ku 719/2 and 477/645/96 of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft     

Designs for estimating an extremal point of quadratic regression models in a hyperball

This paper is devoted to studying optimal designs for estimating an extremal point of a multivariate quadratic regression model in the unit hyperball. The problem of estimating an extremal point is reduced to that of estimating certain parameters of a corresponding nonlinear (in parameters) regression model. For this reduced problem truncated locally D-optimal designs are found in an explicit form. The result is a generalization of the results of Fedorov and Müller (1997) for onedimensional quadratic regression function in the unit segment. Received February 2002     

Akaike-type criteria and the reliability of inference: Model selection versus statistical model specification

Since the 1990s, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and its various modifications/extensions, including BIC, have found wide applicability in econometrics as objective procedures that can be used to select parsimonious statistical models. The aim of this paper is to argue that these model selection procedures invariably give rise to unreliable inferences, primarily because their choice within a prespecified family of models (a) assumes away the problem of model validation, and (b) ignores the relevant error probabilities. This paper argues for a return to the original statistical model specification problem, as envisaged by Fisher (1922), where the task is understood as one of selecting a statistical model in such a way as to render the particular data a truly typical realization of the stochastic process specified by the model in question. The key to addressing this problem is to replace trading goodness-of-fit against parsimony with statistical adequacy as the sole criterion for when a fitted model accounts for the regularities in the data.     

Estimation of the scale matrix of a multivariate t-model under entropy loss

This paper deals with the estimation of the scale matrix of a multivariatet-model with unknown location vector and scale matrix to improve upon the usual estimators based on the sample sum of product matrix. The well-known results of the estimation of the scale matrix of the multivariate normal model under the assumption of entropy loss function have been generalized to that of a multivariatet-model. The paper is based on the first author’s unpublished Ph.D. dissertation ‘Estimation of the Scale Matrix of a Multivariate T-model’, University of Western Ontario, Canada. Present address: School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia.     

On the construction of trend free row-column 2-level factorial experiments

In this paper we consider experimental situations where a complete or fractional factorial experiment having all factors at 2 levels is to be conducted using a 2 ^m × 2 ⁿ row-column design and where there may be an unknown trend effect that can be expressed as a polynomial function of the position in which observations are obtained in the row-column design. Methods are given for allocating the treatments from a complete or fractional 2-level factorial experiment to rows and columns so that the resulting design yields estimates for main effects that have a high level of resistance against trend effects. Research supported by NSF Grant No. DMS-8700945.     

On the finite sample behavior of testing whether new is better than used of a specified age

Hollander, Park and Proschan (1986) proposed a test of new is better than used of a specified age. It is based on large sample normality of the test statistic. There is, however, no study in the literature on its actual size for small and moderate sample sizes. To shed some lights on this, the results of a Monte Carlo simulation study as well as two real data examples are reported and these indicate that the test can have a quite liberal size, especially for small to moderate sample sizes. In order to improve on this weakness, a modified test is proposed and studied. It is noticed that this modified test seems to over-correct the original test to an extent that it becomes unduly conservative sometimes. Hence we propose another modification that combines the original test and the modified test turns out to have its size quite close to the nominal level and is therefore preferable to both the original and modified tests.     

Chapter 11 bankruptcy and the termination of collective bargaining contracts

In 1984 the Supreme Court ruled that employers can unilaterally break an existing collective bargaining contract upon filing a chapter 11 bankruptcy petition. This ruling changed both the contractual responsibilities of the employer to honor the collective bargaining agreement and the rights that workers have under the National Labor Relations Act. The purpose of this article is to show the conditions under which a Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceeding will lead to the termination of a labor contract. Our results suggest that (a) legal rulings that reduce the costs of bankruptcy will increase the number of contractual dissolutions and (b) a Chapter 11 bankruptcy is more likely to occur when a firm operates in a climate of uncertain expectations.     

Optimising a Probabilistic Model of the Development of Play in Soccer

We present a probabilistic model based on the one developed by Hernández Mendo and Anguera (Revista de Psicologíca Social, 16(1), 71–93, 2001). Here we have tried to break down the interaction contexts that the opposing teams are able to generate and transform during the game. We are aware that a given player or team does not produce consistent behaviour in similar situations. However, a degree of uncertainty is assumed to exist regarding whether the results obtained are a specific function of the analysis used. In order to carry out this research a category system which optimized that used in the previous model was developed. This system should enable the interaction between teams to be observed within the actual play of a soccer game. A lag sequential analysis was performed on the basis of a coding of the behavioural flow. After describing the behavioural patterns obtained a probabilistic model of the development of play in soccer is proposed.     

The density of the parameter estimators when the observations are distributed exponentially

We present the probability density of parameter estimators whenN independent variables are observed, each of them distributed according to the exponential low (with some parameters to be estimated). The numberN is supposed to be small. Typically, such an experimental situation arises in problems of software reliability, another case is a small sample in the GLIM modeling. The considered estimator is defined by the maximum of the posterior probability density; it is equal to the maximum likelihood estimator when the prior is uniform. The exact density is obtained, and its approximation is discussed in accordance with some information-geometric considerations. The main body of the paper has been prepared during the author’s visit in LMC/IMAG Grenoble, France, on the invitation of Université Joseph Fourier in January 1994.     

Economic analysis of the production of ready-to-eat ‘Gbegiri' bean mix powder

Economic evaluation of the industrial production of Gbegiri bean soup mix was conducted using the NPV (net present value) and IRR (internal rate of return) methods. A uniform cash flow over a 10-year plant life with zero salvage value was assumed. Sensitivity analysis was conducted by varying the number of production days (330, 250 and 150 days) at 100% plant capacity and varying the plant capacity (100, 85 and 70%) for a 330-day production schedule. Some components of the operating cost reduced as the number of production days or the plant capacity were reduced. The production cost and product cost per unit increased with reduction in either the plant capacity utilisation or the number of days. The economic performance of the plant when operated for 150 days was not attractive. The results indicated that the plant should not be operated for less than 250 days in the year. Flexibility in the plant capacity utilisation in the range 70–100% yields a good economic performance.