IPOs’ signalling effects for speculative stock detection: evidence from the Stock Exchange of Thailand

Using a unique data set from the Thai stock market about the so-called, ‘Turnover List (TOL)’ of speculative stocks spanning the period 2004–2012, we investigate and provide new evidence on the relationship between IPOs’ pricing effects and subsequent classification as speculative investments. To be more specific, we examine the signalling effects for the detection of speculative stocks in relation to the degree of their prior IPOs underpricing. We also employ the market-feedback hypothesis to investigate this signalling process. Our results reveal a significant positive relationship between the magnitudes of the IPO underpricing and the probability of an IPO firm being classified officially as speculative on the TOL. Furthermore, we find that a 6-month abnormal return after going public increases the probability of speculative dealing in the IPOs. Next, we consider all listed firms in the Thai stock market and highlight the role of both abnormal return and trading volume in the transmission of probability for appearing on the TOL. In addition, we find that IPOs and non-dividend paying companies further increase the risk of being on the TOL.     

基于市场周转率的股票市场收益预测

我国许多股票交易者在交易时追求流行,偏爱交易高周转率的热门股票,偏爱在市场火热时入市。这种行为使高周转率的股票以及高周转率的市场时期可能具有超额利润。我们利用两个自回归求积移动平均法模型成功地发现中国股票市场的周转率可以预测股票收益。     

Evidence of Stock Returns and Abnormal Trading Volume: A Threshold Quantile Regression Approach

This paper presents a capital asset pricing model‐based threshold quantile regression model with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic specification to examine relations between excess stock returns and “abnormal trading volume”. We employ an adaptive Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method with asymmetric Laplace distribution to study six daily Dow Jones Industrial stocks. The proposed model captures asymmetric risk through market beta and volume coefficients, which change discretely between regimes. Moreover, they are driven by market information and various quantile levels. This study finds that abnormal volume has significantly negative effects on excess stock returns under low quantile levels; however, there are significantly positive effects under high quantile levels. The evidence indicates that each market beta varies with different quantile levels, capturing different states of market conditions.     

Market Underreaction and Overreaction of Technology Stocks

Several studies have assessed stock market under- or overreaction of stocks and there is some agreement among them. However, there is much disagreement about what constitutes market underreaction or overreaction, and the conditions that cause it. The substantial variation in results among studies may be partially attributed to the types of firms that are contained in any sample. We investigate this premise by focusing on a sample of technology stocks that experienced an extreme change in stock price, along with a corresponding control sample of non-technology stocks that experienced a similar extreme change in stock price on the same day.

Based on the subsequent stock price behavior of each sample, we find a greater degree of overreaction within extreme positive changes in technology stock prices (winners) than in non-technology stock prices. In addition, we find a greater degree of underreaction within extreme negative changes in technology stock prices (losers) than in non-technology stock prices. When considering winners and losers collectively for technology and non-technology firms, it appears the market is overoptimistic when it initially revalues technology stock prices relative to non-technology stock prices.

The degree of under- or overreaction of technology stocks varies within the sample of technology stocks, and is conditioned on firm-specific characteristics. Overall, our results suggest that technology stocks exhibit unique stock price behavior subsequent to an extreme change in price, and that this unique behavior can even vary among technology firms according to firm-specific characteristics.     

Attribution of hedge fund returns using a Kalman filter

Hedge funds offer attractive investment possibilities because they engage in investment styles and opportunity sets which – because they are different from traditional asset class funds – generate different risk exposures. Conventional wisdom holds that hedge funds add value and provide unique investment opportunities because of their ability to invest in disparate risk exposures, and via the manager’s skill in selecting stocks and timing the market. In this article, a Kalman filter is used to decompose the time series of hedge fund returns into market timing and stock selection factors to establish whether fund managers really do generate statistically significant abnormal profits. Compelling evidence supports an alternative interpretation for the market timing return constituent. This work represents the first time the Kalman filter has been used to extract a time series of the capital asset pricing model’s dynamic variables for determining return component magnitudes.     

中国证券投资基金羊群行为的实证研究

本文基于封闭式基金2000年6月～2003年12月完整的投资组合数据,采用LSV(1992)的方法以及Wermers(1999)修正的方法测度了中国股票市场证券投资基金羊群行为的程度.并采用分组比较以及回归分析的方法研究了基金的羊群行为与股票上市年龄,流通股市值,股票超常收益(同期、前期及后期)以及财务表现等特征之间的关系.     

Irrational Mutual Fund Managers: Explaining Differences in Their Behavior

Documenting the disposition effect for a large sample of mutual fund managers in the United States, we find that stock-level characteristics explain the cross-sectional variation of the effect. The disposition effect, which is the tendency to sell winner stocks too early and hold on to loser stocks for too long, is more pronounced for fund managers who invest in stocks that are more difficult to value. Using different measures of stock and market uncertainty, we show that mutual fund managers display a stronger disposition-driven behavior when stocks are more difficult to value. We also find that the level of the disposition effect is monotonically increasing with the level of systematic risk (i.e., beta). In addition, we document that the trading behavior of mutual fund managers is partly driven by attention-grabbing stocks (dividend-paying stocks). Overall, our results suggest that stock-level uncertainty and trading of attention-grabbing stocks amplify the disposition effect and that differences in the effect can be explained by mutual fund managers' investment styles. Given that mutual funds hold a large fraction of the U.S. equity market, our findings add to the ongoing discussion whether professional investors can create stock mispricings and shed new light on market efficiency.     

Evolving Efficiency of Dually-Listed Indian Stocks: A Nonlinear Perspective

This paper examines the degree of efficiency of Indian ADRs and their underlying stocks trading in NSE/BSE from an adaptive markets hypothesis (AMH) perspective that is theoretically grounded in nonlinear serial dependence. For this purpose, the authors employ the windowed as well as the rolling hinich bicorrelation test procedures on ADRs and the underlying stocks issued by Indian firms such as, and limited to, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Wipro, Tata Motors, and Sterlite Industries. The study’s findings indicate that the degree of market efficiency witnessed at the level of individual scrips (ADRs or underlying domestic stocks) differs considerably from the degree of efficiency of the broader stock market in which such scrips trade. Further, the degree of efficiency witnessed amidst all US and Indian scrips considered for this study was found to be heterogeneous in nature and in-turn warrants a ranking approach. Lastly, the degree of efficiency witnessed in certain (not all) dually-listed Indian scrips was found to be homogenous across trading locations. However, this does not happen to be the case for all other dually-listed scrips considered for this study. The study’s findings bring to light the need for disaggregated, firm level market efficiency studies aimed at examining firm-level market efficiency at different trading locations and in-turn identifying the antecedents behind homogeneity (or lack-thereof) in firm-level market efficiency across multiple trading locations.

     

An examination of the dynamic behavior of aggregate bond and stock issues

Using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model, this article examines the dynamic behavior of aggregate bond issues and aggregate stock issues and how interest rates, stock market returns, and aggregate capital expenditures influence them. We find that an increase in stock market returns causes an increase in stock issues that persists over one quarter, while a decrease in interest rates leads to an increase in bond issues that persists over a full year. Aggregate capital expenditures have an immediate effect, but not a long-term effect, on bond issues. We also find that the financing process spreads over a period of at least 1 year. In the short run, an increase in aggregate bond issues leads to a decrease in aggregate stock issues, but in the long run (6 months to 1 year), an issue of either stocks or bonds makes subsequent financing by either stocks or bonds more likely.     

A novel measure of liquidity premium: application to the Korean stock market

This study proposes a novel measure for an asset’s liquidity premium. Applying Brownian first-passage time distribution properties, we derive an explicit form of liquidity premium embedded in the asset price. Our liquidity premium measure is intuitive because it assesses the extent to which the value of the asset should be increased from the current market price if investors were allowed to retain the asset until they achieve an investment goal. This measure is readily available for assessing an asset’s liquidity because it does not require information on the asset’s transactional characteristics. Our empirical experiment using Korean stock market data suggests that the liquidity premium in this study is inversely related to Amihud’s (2002) illiquidity ratio, which is commonly used to measure stocks’ illiquidity.     

New Evidence of Psychological Barrier from the Oil Market

The authors examine how stock returns were affected when the oil price reached the psychological barrier of US$100 per barrel for the first time in history. Using an event study approach, 4 key results emerge. First, the authors show that a psychological barrier event in the oil market does affect stock returns. Second, they show that a psychological barrier event in the oil market is a source of return drift—a phenomenon well explained and understood with respect to nonoil news events. Third, the psychological barrier affects small/medium-sized stocks and not large stocks. Last, the authors show that successful trading strategies can be devised based on the information that the oil price psychological barrier significantly impacts the market and that it contributes to return drift.     

The influence of Taiwan’s stock market on Bitcoin’s price under Taiwan’s monetary policy threshold

ABSTRACT

This study uses a smooth transition autoregressive model with exogenous variables (STARX) to investigate whether there is a nonlinear relationship between Bitcoin and Taiwan’s stock market taking into account Taiwan’s monetary policy threshold during 2 February 2012 to 31 August 2019. The statistical results show there is a threshold effect and confirm a nonlinear relationship between Taiwan’s stock market and Bitcoin, with variations over time and across Bitcoin and Taiwan’s stock market. Specifically, we find that Bitcoin responds asymmetrically to Taiwan’s stock market according to the threshold value. Furthermore, the return on the closing price of TAIEX with a lag of two periods under Taiwan’s monetary policy threshold has a nonlinear impact on the return on the closing price of Bitcoin.     

Inflation news and stock returns: market direction and flow-through ability

Previous studies of the short-run response of daily stock prices to announcements of macroeconomic news could be biased when responses in different scenarios cancel each other out. In our analysis of inflation news in the Spanish stock market, we consider market direction arguments and implement our study based on the sector of activity to control for the ‘flow-through’ ability of the firms in each industry. In general, our results are quite consistent with the ‘market direction’ and the ‘flow-through’ hypotheses. Unanticipated inflation news implies abnormal returns depending on the direction of the news, the state of the economy and the flow-through ability of the sector. The impact of positive surprises affects the abnormal returns of many more sectors than does the impact of negative surprises, especially in the low states of economy. These significant effects are mainly observed in industries that are characterised by low flow-through ability.     

股市投资功能与居民金融资产多元化发展

在中国金融深化和市场化进程中,有许多因素会影响到居民金融资产多元化进程,但深入研究股市的投资功能将更具重要的理论意义和现实意义。本文认为,证券资产持有不足是目前中国居民金融资产多元化进程中存在的主要问题；从表层看,中国居民不愿长期持有股票是由股市在过去年份的异常波动和近几年的持续低迷造成的；从深层次看,导致股市异常波动的重要原因之一是中国股市的投资功能较弱；因此,改善中国股市的投资功能将是推动中国居民金融资产多元化进程的关键。     

Portfolio choice with internal habit formation: a life-cycle model with uninsurable labor income risk

Motivated by the success of internal habit formation preferences in explaining asset pricing puzzles, we introduce these preferences in a life-cycle model of consumption and portfolio choice with liquidity constraints, undiversifiable labor income risk and stock-market participation costs. In contrast to the initial motivation, we find that the model is not able to simultaneously match two very important stylized facts: a low stock market participation rate, and moderate equity holdings for those households that do invest in stocks. Habit formation increases wealth accumulation because the intertemporal consumption smoothing motive is stronger. As a result, households start participating in the stock market very early in life, and invest their portfolios almost fully in stocks. Therefore, we conclude that, with respect to its ability to match the empirical evidence on asset allocation behavior, the internal habit formation model is dominated by its time-separable utility counterpart.     

The profitability of financial analysts’ recommendations: evidence from an emerging market

This article aims at measuring recommendation value on the Tunisian market and uses a hand-collected database of 6646 recommendations (2005–2009). We apply the methodology of calendar–time portfolio analysis. This consists of simulating a portfolio that would include stocks depending on the recommendations issued by financial analysts. In order to measure abnormal (or ‘excess’) returns, the raw return of the portfolio is then compared to the evolution of the stock index and to the prediction of the Capital Asset-Pricing Model. Some of the portfolios we build earn a positive significant excess risk-adjusted return of 1.19% per month. Beyond the results that are in line with the literature, we provide two original results. First, ‘sell’ signals are informative, whereas ‘buy’ signals are not. We suggest that it is related to large (small) firms having more ‘buy’ (‘sell’) recommendations and to the direction of the market trend over the period. Second, the fact that recommendation levels have more impact than recommendation changes is explained by the specific informational context on that market, which is that recommendations are systematically disclosed each month, whereas on other markets, recommendations are produced only when the analyst has some new information to disclose.     

The impact from changes in stock market valuations on investment: new economy versus old economy

This paper investigates whether there is a different impact from changes in ‘new’ and ‘old’ economy stock valuations on private investment for seven OECD economies. A vector autoregressive model is estimated for each individual country, using quarterly data over the period 1990–2000. It is found that the impact from changes in valuations of new economy stocks to investment is roughly the same in North America and in the United Kingdom as in continental Europe. By contrast, the impact from changes in old economy stock valuations on investment is, in general, larger in North America and in the United Kingdom than in continental Europe. Finally, the results suggest that in continental Europe the impact on investment from changes in the valuation of new economy stocks is bigger than for old economy stocks, whereas for North America and the United Kingdom, the impact is more similar.     

Stock return reversal and continuance anomaly: new evidence from Hong Kong

Using weekly data, this article conducts a comprehensive analysis and presents new empirical evidences on the short-term stock return reversal and continuance anomaly in the Hong Kong stock market. We confirm that winner stocks behave differently from loser stocks in that the return reversal phenomenon is pervasive within past winner stocks only while past loser stocks tend to show weak return continuance. The arbitrage strategy can earn significantly positive contrarian profits, especially for small firms and illiquid stocks. The anomaly varies across different industries and is also sensitive to the market movement. Despite the existence of the anomaly, our results still in general suggest that the Hong Kong stock market is weak-form efficient because arbitrage trading costs would largely overwhelm the available profits in most cases.     

Productivity growth and stock returns: firm- and aggregate-level analyses

A firm’s stock return is affected not only by its own productivity growth rate, but also by other firms’ productivity growth rates. We show that this spillover effect is significant and time-varying, and underlies a fallacy of composition observed in late 20th century U.S. data: stock returns and productivity growth are correlated positively in firm-level data but negatively in aggregate data. This seeming fallacy of composition reflects Schumpeterian creative destruction: a few technology winners’ stocks rise with their rising productivity while many technology losers’ stocks fall with their declining productivity. Thus, most individual firms’ stock returns correlate negatively with aggregate productivity growth. This implies that technological innovation need not be a blessing for all firms and as a result, for investors holding the market. Our findings also provide a firm-level technology innovation-based explanation of prior findings that the market return correlates negatively with aggregate earnings.     

我国沪深股市同配性和网络导航现象研究——基于复杂网络理论

分别按照地区、行业、市值三种分类标准对我国沪深市场股票进行分类,以股票为网络节点,研究了三种分类标准下的股票同配性,进而研究了行业分类标准下的网络导航现象。结果表明:上海市场和深圳主板市场在阈值较高、按行业分类时表现出较为明显的同配性;沪深股市在阈值较低时表现出一定的异配性,而当阈值达到一定程度时表示出较强的同配性;网络导航现象体现了股市中异类股票间的相互影响作用;中国股市存在较多的网络导航现象;在较长时期内造成该现象的主要原因是分类标准不准确、股票涉及共同的炒作概念、具有共同的股权投资对象、新股上市日期相近等,短期内的原因还包括消息面或事件性的驱动因素。