预测铁路旅客运输市场发展趋势的研究

为了准确反映铁路旅客运输市场的波动情况,有必要建立铁路旅客运输市场景气预警监测系统,以对我国铁路客运的宏观管理决策、适时调控和动态监测等提供支持手段。为此根据1987年—2001年我国铁路旅客运输市场的实际状况,建立了景气预警监测系统模型,对系统评价指标的设置、景气指数计算和控制信号灯系统等进行了论述,并对模型进行了实证分析。     

Model of passenger behavior choice under flight delay based on dynamic reference point

Flight delay has always been a concern of scholars, but in previous studies, there has been little discussion of passenger behavior choice after flight delay. The paper based on the prospect theory, taking the Beijing-Shanghai route as an example, constructs the passenger behavior choice model under flight delay, and in order to explore the decision-making behavior of passengers with different attributes under different delay scenarios. The results show that the reference point of passengers' behavioral decision-making is dynamic due to different delay scenarios and passengers' attributes. For the same reason, passengers have different behavioral choices when encountering flight delay. Through empirical analysis, it is found that the choice of passengers based on prospect theory is in line with the actual choice of passengers. The choice model proposed in the paper can effectively describe the passenger's choice behavior.     

Factors of electric vehicle adoption: A comparison of conventional and electric car users based on an extended theory of planned behavior

Increasing the share of battery electric vehicles (BEV) in the total car fleet is regarded as a promising way to reduce local car emissions. Based on online surveys in Denmark and Sweden, this study compares BEV users' (n = 673) and conventional vehicle (CV) users' (n = 1794) socio-demographic profiles, attitudinal profiles, and mobility patterns. In line with previous research, BEV users are typically male, highly educated, have high incomes, and often more than one car in their household. Additionally, BEV users perceive less functional barriers toward BEV use and have more positive attitudes and norms than CV users. The different profiles of these user groups suggest a separate analysis of potential factors of BEV adoption in both groups. In regression analyses, CV and BEV users' intention to use/purchase a BEV is modeled based on factors of the Theory of Planned Behavior extended by personal norm, perceived mobility necessities, and BEV experience. For CV users, symbolic attitudes related to BEVs are the most important factor of intention, while perceived functional barriers in terms of driving range are most relevant for BEV users' intention. How BEV users cope with trips of longer distance seems of particular relevance. In multiple car households, we found the percentage of actual BEV usage related to the type of other cars in the household, perceived functional barriers of BEVs as well as (successful) behavioral adaption to longer trips by BEVs. Based on the results, we discuss ways to increase BEV adoption for current users and non-users.     

A profit-maximization location-capacity model for designing a service system with risk of service interruptions

This paper considers the design of an immobile service system in which each facility’s service process is subject to the risk of interruptions. The location-capacity decisions and allocations are simultaneously made to maximize the difference between the service provider’s profit and the sum of customers’ transportation and waiting costs. An efficient Lagrangian-based solution algorithm is developed, which solves large-sized instances with up to 50 service facilities and 500 customers in a few seconds. Several sensitivity analyses and managerial insights are presented. The model is also applied to a case study on a logistics network design problem in the zinc mining industry.     

Mode choice behavior analysis of air transport on the introduction of remotely piloted passenger aircraft

Remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) are expected to be applied to passenger aircraft; however there is a lack of research which analyzes choice behavior for RPA compared to conventionally piloted aircraft (CPA), in terms of socio-demographic characteristics. The purpose of this paper is to present a model for air travelers’ mode choice behaviors under the assumption that RPAs are introduced to the market. Results show that the fare of RPA should be lowered by a certain amount (i.e., discount factor of RPA) to compete with CPA, and the discount factor should be higher for older, female, and frequent travelers. The results also show that there are still concerns about RPA, and pilot on board is preferred. Through this study, it will be possible to predict the acceptance of newly introduced technology in consideration of socio-demographic characteristics of potential customers.     

Expanding the effect of metro station service coverage by incorporating a public bicycle sharing system

This study examines how metro stations can expand their service coverage for passengers by implementing a public bicycle sharing system (PBSS) in the vicinity. We design a stated preference method questionnaire to determine the choice behavior intention of metro passengers toward PBSS and calibrate the survey data using the mixed logit model. We also use a geographic information system to display this expansion in metro station service coverage following the incorporation of PBSS. We then conduct a cost-benefit analysis of PBSS incorporation into the metro system to determine its cost-effectiveness. The decision criteria for PBSS station allocation strategies as derived in this study can act as useful references for urban planners and PBSS operation agencies when initiating low-carbon and sustainable policies.