Estimating national road crash fatalities using aggregate data

Injuries and fatalities from road traffic crashes have emerged a major public health challenge in Pakistan. Reliable estimates of road crash fatalities (RCF) of a country, is a vital element needed for identification and control of key risk factors, road-safety improvement efforts and prioritizing national health. Reliability of current annual RCF estimates for Pakistan becomes highly questionable due to serious underreporting. This study aimed to predict annual RCF for Pakistan using data from World Health Organization and International Road Federation sources. An ordinary least square (OLS) regression model that relates fatality rate with different explanatory variables was developed. RCF were predicted for Pakistan for year 2012 and 2013, and results were compared with national police reported estimates. Study results indicated that there is serious underreporting of RCF in Pakistan and immediate measures are needed to improve the existing road crash recording and reporting system at the national and subnational levels.     

Assessment of vehicle speeds on different categories of roadways in Ghana

Empirical evidence from road safety literature suggests that vehicular speed is an important risk factor in the incidence and severity of road traffic crashes globally. Speed studies are at rudimentary stages in developing countries, thus making vehicular speed research imperative. The main aim of the study was to establish two major speed parameters, namely, the mean and dispersion, and their implications for more extensive and long-term speed monitoring in Ghana. Research workers stationed themselves in a parked car and used a radar gun to unobtrusively measure the travelling speeds of 28,489 vehicles at 15 different inter-urban locations on three highway categories. Excessive speeding is very pervasive on all highway categories in Ghana. Travelling speeds through settlements where a speed limit of 50 km/hour is mandatory were particularly excessive. Generally, 98%, 90% and 97% of vehicles exceeded the posted speed limit of 50 km/hour on national, inter-regional and regional roads respectively. Mean speeds and speed dispersions (as assessed by the standard deviations) through built-up areas were 81.3 +/- 17.3 km/hour on national roads, 64.7 +/- 12.3 km/hour on inter-regional roads and 72.6 +/- 13.4, km/hour on regional roads. On rural undivided highways with an 80 km/hour speed limit, mean and speed dispersions were 90 +/- 18.9 km/hour on national roads, 80.1 +/- 16 km/hour on inter-regional roads and 84.4 +/- 15.6 on regional roads; also translating into 66%, 47% and 60% of vehicles exceeding recommended speeds. In all cases, speed dispersions were notably higher than the value of 10 km/hour generally found in developed countries. Excessive speeding and wide speed dispersions are highly prevalent on Ghana's highways. These factors likely account for the high incidence of traffic crashes and fatalities in Ghana. An integrated speed monitoring and control programme and by-passing small and medium settlements would be required for the reduction of speed-related crashes, fatalities and injuries.     

Speed control in developing countries: issues,challenges and opportunities in reducing road traffic injuries

Speed has been determined to be one of the most common contributing factors in vehicle crashes. This study explores vehicle speed as a factor in the causation of road traffic crashes, using the example of Ghana. It examines the effectiveness of various speed control measures, based on policereported traffic crashes in Ghana and published works on speed control measures in both industrialized and developing countries. In Ghana, pedestrians were the main victims of road traffic injuries. The dominant driver error assigned by traffic police was loss of control, with the underlying factor being excessive vehicle speeds. The ‘speed factor’ alone accounted for more than 50% of all Ghanaian road traffic crashes between 1998 and 2000. While the enforcement of speed limits by traffic police may not be affordable for most developing countries, rumble strips and speed humps were found to be effective on Ghanaian roads. Rumble strips installed on the main Accra-Kumasi highway reduced crashes by about 35% and fatalities by about 55%. Reducing vehicle speeds may be one of the most effective interventions to stem traffic crashes in low-income countries. However, setting lower speed limits is not an effective intervention without the traffic law enforcement resources to ensure that limits are followed. Developing countries must also look to other speed reduction measures such as speed bumps and rumble strips, roads that segregate high- and low-speed users, and technological solutions such as speed governors, as well as greater public awareness of the problem.     

Time to prioritise safe walking

This study draws on information from two recently published documents on pedestrian safety and global status of road safety to draw attention to the need to prioritize safe walking in planning and policy at local, national and international levels. The study shows that each year, more than 270 000 pedestrians lose their lives on the world's roads. The study argues that this situation need not persist because proven pedestrian safety interventions exist but do not attract the merit they deserve in many locations. The study further shows that the key risk factors for pedestrian road traffic injury such as vehicle speed, alcohol use by drivers and pedestrians, lack of infrastructure facilities for pedestrians and inadequate visibility of pedestrians are fairly well documented. The study concludes that pedestrian collisions, like all road traffic crashes, should not be accepted as inevitable because they are, in fact, both predictable and preventable. While stressing that reduction or elimination of risks faced by pedestrians is an important and achievable policy goal, the study emphasizes the importance of a comprehensive, holistic approach that includes engineering, enforcement and education measures.     

Identifying the factors behind fatal and non-fatal road crashes: a case study of Lahore,Pakistan

ABSTRACT

The study identifies the factors behind fatal and non-fatal road crashes in Lahore, Pakistan, by investigating 461 reported cases to Traffic Police Lahore that occurred during January–November 2014. Road crashes are categorized into fatal and non-fatal crashes and, because of the binary nature of the dependent variable, logistic regression is used to identify the factors behind these crashes. As a follow-up, discriminant analysis is employed to classify the factors related to fatal and non-fatal crashes. The logistic regression results reveal that females are at higher risk of fatalities than male drivers. Among vehicle types, rickshaws and cars are more involved in fatal accidents because both are growing at large on roads. Long trucks and trailers are also involved in fatal accidents, mainly because of their huge size and drivers’ risky driving behaviours. It is also noted that risk of fatalities is higher in case where two vehicles bumped each other. Speeding and overloading are the common behaviours resulting in fatal crashes. Better urban transport systems and strict compliance with traffic rules and regulations may improve road safety in Pakistan.     

Evaluating performance of a Lead Road Safety Agency (LRSA) in a low-income country: a case study from Pakistan

The World Health Organization recommends identifying a Lead Road Safety Agency (LRSA) within the government to coordinate preventive interventions. As LRSAs in developing countries have rarely been evaluated, this case study describes the performance of the LRSA of Pakistan with respect to the World Bank criteria. The designated LRSA, the National Road Safety Secretariat, was put into operation in 2006 and worked for about two years with World Bank funding. The agency had a stand-alone structure headed by an experienced road safety specialist during the first year only and faced difficulty in recruiting other required experts. The LRSA drafted the first National Road Safety Plan, including strategic review of road safety and existing legislation, articulated multisectorial collaboration nationally and provincially, and collected traffic injury data in some districts. Its progress was halted by its dissolution because of funding problems. Currently, two agencies specialising in traffic enforcement and transport research respectively are fulfilling LRSA functions on an ad-hoc basis. Results suggest that sustainability and consistency of LRSAs in developing countries like Pakistan may only be ensured if they are legally protected, inter-ministerial, have permanent funding and are provided with the required expertise through international cooperation, so they can perform their required functions effectively.     

Driving behaviours,traffic risk and road safety: comparative study between Malaysia and Singapore

The present study aims to investigate differences in road safety attitude, driver behaviour and traffic risk perception between Malaysia and Singapore. A questionnaire-based survey was conducted among a sample of Singaporean (n = 187) and Malaysian (n = 313) road users. The data was analysed using confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling applied to measure comparative fit indices of Malaysian and Singaporean respondents. The results show that the perceived traffic risk of Malaysian respondents is higher than Singaporean counterparts. Moreover, the structural equation modelling has confirmed perceived traffic risk performing the role of full mediation between perceived driving skills and perceived road safety for both the countries, while perceived traffic skills was found to perform the role of partial mediation between aggression and anxiety, on one hand, and road safety, on the other hand, in Malaysia and Singapore. In addition, in both countries, a weak correlation between perceived driving skills, aggression and anxiety with perceived road safety was found, while a strong correlation exists with traffic risk perception. The findings of this study have been discussed in terms of theoretical, practical and conceptual implications for both scholars and policy-makers to better understand the young drivers’ attitude and behaviour relationship towards road safety measures with a view to future research.     

Modelling risk factors for fatal pedestrian crashes in Kolkata,India

Abstract

In developing countries, pedestrian safety is an issue of major concern. Although an extensive body of literature is available on the identification of elements related to the pedestrian’s risk; the studies are primarily conducted in urban areas of developed countries. The findings from these studies may only be partially relevant to the cities of an emerging country such as India. The present study analyzes historical crash records obtained from the “Kolkata Police” and identifies the risk factors at the road network level for the hazardous corridors posing a high risk to the pedestrians. The study findings reveal that pedestrians’ fatalities at intersections are associated with a high vehicular volume, higher pedestrian-vehicular interaction, high approach speed, overtaking tendency of vehicles, certain land-use type, encroachment of footpath, inadequate sight distance, inaccessible pedestrian crosswalk, wider minor carriageway, the absence of a pedestrian signal head, and lack of enforcement. On the other hand, the models outcomes reveal that pedestrians’ fatalities at midblock road segments are associated with low pedestrian volume, high approach speed, overtaking tendency of the vehicle, encroachment of footpath, on-street parking, wider road width, certain land-use type, inadequate sight distance, insufficient lighting, and inadequate pavement markings.     

Progress in pedestrian safety research

Abstract

This paper looks at the pedestrian safety issue and the research that has followed to understand and solve the problem of pedestrian safety in the last 120?years - since the time of the first reported pedestrian fatality in 1899. Researches have studied the epidemiology of pedestrian crashes, pedestrian behaviour, pedestrian movements and pedestrian flows. The suggested strategies to reduce pedestrian crashes have ranged from controlling vehicular speeds to controlling pedestrian behaviour. This study presents a summary of the progress we have made in understanding pedestrian crash patterns. Pedestrian behaviour observed in different regions of the world tend to have similarity in pedestrian behaviour: gap acceptance, preferences of route choice and location for crossing roads. High income countries(HIC) have reported reduction in pedestrian fatalities as compared to low and middle income countries(LMICs), however pedestrian trips have also reduced in these countries leading to concerns about the effectiveness of ‘known’ strategies. Speed control through active measures have been found to have themaximal benefit and education and training programs for altering pedestrian behaviour on the road the least benefits. Low and middle income countries face pedestrian exposure on high speed roads. New research efforts are required to address pedestrian safety in both HIC and LMICs.     

Assessment of safety culture among job positions in high-rise construction: a hybrid fuzzy multi criteria decision-making (FMCDM) approach

The construction industry is known as one of the most dangerous industries, which not only requires sound operation of executive laws and regulations, but also necessitates the safety culture of all workers at workshops. Therefore, the aim of this research is to identify the factors of safety culture and ranking occupations in jobsites based on those factors in order to proactively improve the safety culture of construction projects and subsequently promote safety conditions and worksites. In this study, safety culture criteria are weighted by a combination of Fuzzy Decision Trail and Evaluation Laboratory and Fuzzy ANP methods. Next, different job positions in high-rise projects are ranked using the Fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution method. Findings demonstrated that the project manager, site superintendent and supervisor occupations had the highest and labourers had the lowest level of safety culture in the high-rise construction industry. Furthermore, factors such as safety supervision and training must be considered more seriously in order to create a positive safety culture among workers.     

Good practices on cost – effective road infrastructure safety investments

The paper presents the findings of a research project aiming to quantify and subsequently classify several infrastructure-related road safety measures, based on the international experience attained through extensive and selected literature review and additionally on a full consultation process including questionnaire surveys addressed to experts and relevant workshops. Initially, a review of selected research reports was carried out and an exhaustive list of road safety infrastructure investments covering all types of infrastructure was compiled. Individual investments were classified according to the infrastructure investment area and the type of investment and were thereafter analysed on the basis of key safety components. These investments were subsequently ranked in relation to their safety effects and implementation costs and on the basis of this ranking, a set of five most promising investments was selected for an in-depth analysis. The results suggest that the overall cost effectiveness of a road safety infrastructure investment is not always in direct correlation with the safety effect and is recommended that cost–benefit ratios and safety effects are always examined in conjunction with each other in order to identify the optimum solution for a specific road safety problem in specific conditions and with specific objectives.     

Dealing with existing theory: national fatality rates,vehicle standards and personal safety

Abstract

In this paper we discuss some of the weaknesses in exiting theories and understandings behind road safety interventions and policy making. The paper deals with four main issues: road traffic fatality rates and per capita income of countries, vehicle crashworthiness standards, role of pedestrian and powered two-wheeler share in traffic on fatalities, and safety standards for vehicles other than cars. Recent data indicate that there may not be a strong relationship between income and road safety performance and it is possible for low and middle-income countries (LMIC) to decrease death rates at present income levels. Safer cars have had a major role in reducing fatality rates, but, gains in traffic safety in high income countries may be partly due to reducing exposure of vulnerable road users. Small lightweight vehicles (like tuk-tuks, three-wheeled scooter taxis) operating in many LMIC appear to have low fatality rates though they do not follow any crashworthiness standards. Very different crashworthiness standards need to be developed for low mass vehicles incapable of operating speeds greater than 50?km/h. LMIC may not be able to reduce fatality rates below about 7 per 100,000 population unless there are innovative developments in road design and all vehicle safety standards.     

How much would low- and middle-income countries benefit from addressing the key risk factors of road traffic injuries?

Abstract

Despite strong advocacy, the UN Decade of Action for Road Safety (2011–2020) is ending with most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) no closer to the Sustainable Development Goals target of reducing traffic mortality by half. In contrast, most high-income countries (HICs) have seen large benefits in recent decades from large-scale safety interventions. We aimed to assess how much LMICs would benefit from interventions that address six key risk factors related to helmet use, seatbelt use, speed control, drink driving, and vehicle design for safety of occupants and pedestrians. We use a comparative risk assessment framework to estimate mortality and health loss (disability adjusted life years lost, DALYs) that would be averted if these risks were reduced through intervention. We estimate effects for six countries that span all developing regions: China, Colombia, Ethiopia, India, Iran, and Russia. We find relatively large benefits (27% reductions in road traffic deaths and DALYs) from speed control in all countries, and about 5%-20% reductions due to other interventions depending on who is at risk in each country. To achieve larger gains, LMICs would need to move beyond simply learning from HICs and undertake new research to address risk factors particularly relevant to their context.     

An evaluation of the effectiveness of televised road safety messages in Ghana

The goal was to evaluate the effectiveness of recent televised advertisements conducted by the National Road Safety Commission in Ghana. These concerned speeding and alcohol-impaired driving and were targeted towards commercial drivers. Focus group discussions were conducted with 50 commercial drivers in four cities. Discussions addressed coverage, clarity and appropriateness of messages, including suggestions for improvements. Most discussants indicated that the messages were clear and appropriate. Television reached all participants in this urban group. However, they felt that other modes of communication, such as flyers and radio, should also be used to reach drivers who did not own televisions. A particular problem was language. The advertisements had been in English and Akan (the most common vernacular language). Participants wanted the messages diversified into more of the major Ghanaian languages. Some participants were unclear on the behaviour that the advertisements were telling viewers to take. Participants advocated greater involvement by police in road safety and called for laws banning the sale of alcohol at bus stations. The advertisements reached and were understood by most of the target audience. Opportunities for strengthening the messages included using other media; increasing the number of languages; and stressing the change in behaviour being recommended. Overall road safety activities would be strengthened by increasing accompanying law enforcement activities related to speed and alcohol-impaired driving. To the authors' knowledge this is the first formal evaluation of a road safety social marketing programme in a low-income sub-Saharan African country. This evaluation will hopefully assist Ghana and other similar countries in strengthening road safety work.     

Fatal and serious road crashes involving young New Zealand drivers: a latent class clustering approach

The over-representation of young drivers in road crashes remains an important concern worldwide. Cluster analysis has been applied to young driver sub-groups, but its application by analysing crash occurrence is just emerging. We present a classification analysis that advances the field through a holistic overview of crash patterns useful for designing youth-targeted road safety programmes. We compiled a database of 8644 New Zealand crashes from 2002 to 2011 involving at least one 15–24-year-old driver and a fatal or serious injury for at least one road user. We considered crash location, infrastructure characteristics, environmental conditions, demographic characteristics, driving behaviour, and pre-crash manoeuvres. The analysis yielded 15 and 8 latent classes of, respectively, single-vehicle and multi-vehicle crashes, and average posterior probabilities measured the odds of correct classification that revealed how the identified clusters contain mostly crashes of a particular class and all the crashes of that class. The results raised three major safety concerns for young drivers that should be addressed: (1) reckless driving and traffic law violations; (2) inattention, error, and hazard perception problems; and (3) interaction with road geometry and lighting conditions, especially on high-speed open roads and state highways.     

News and Events

Our aim is to report the findings of the initial three years of road traffic injuries (RTI) surveillance at Karachi and to compare it with previously published RTI-related data from Pakistan and other low-and middle-income countries. Data were collected through the RTI surveillance programme at Karachi (RTIRP) from the five biggest emergency departments of the city, which receive almost all the major emergencies of the city for the period September 2006 till September 2009. A total of 99,272 victims were enlisted by the RTIRP during the study period. Annual incidence of RTI is calculated to be 184.3 per 100,000 populations and mortality is 5.7 per 100,000 populations. Eighty nine per cent of victims are male and 73% are between 15 and 44 years of age. Commonest road user to be affected is riders of two wheelers (45%). Only 7% of affected motorcyclists were found to be wearing helmets at the time of the accident. Trends of injuries remained uniform over the years. Most frequent injuries were external wounds, followed by orthopaedic injuries. On the basis of our surveillance system, we have presented the largest RTI-related data from a metropolitan city of Pakistan to date.     

Initial results of Pakistan's first road traffic injury surveillance project

Our aim is to report the findings of the initial three years of road traffic injuries (RTI) surveillance at Karachi and to compare it with previously published RTI-related data from Pakistan and other low-and middle-income countries. Data were collected through the RTI surveillance programme at Karachi (RTIRP) from the five biggest emergency departments of the city, which receive almost all the major emergencies of the city for the period September 2006 till September 2009. A total of 99,272 victims were enlisted by the RTIRP during the study period. Annual incidence of RTI is calculated to be 184.3 per 100,000 populations and mortality is 5.7 per 100,000 populations. Eighty nine per cent of victims are male and 73% are between 15 and 44 years of age. Commonest road user to be affected is riders of two wheelers (45%). Only 7% of affected motorcyclists were found to be wearing helmets at the time of the accident. Trends of injuries remained uniform over the years. Most frequent injuries were external wounds, followed by orthopaedic injuries. On the basis of our surveillance system, we have presented the largest RTI-related data from a metropolitan city of Pakistan to date.     

Vision Zero – a road safety policy innovation

The aim of this paper is to examine Sweden's Vision Zero road safety policy. In particular, the paper focuses on how safety issues were framed, which decisions were made, and what are the distinctive features of Vision Zero. The analysis reveals that the decision by the Swedish Parliament to adopt Vision Zero as Sweden's road safety policy was a radical innovation. The policy is different in kind from traditional traffic safety policy with regard to problem formulation, its view on responsibility, its requirements for the safety of road users, and the ultimate objective of road safety work. The paper briefly examines the implications of these findings for national and global road safety efforts that aspire to achieving innovative road safety policies in line with the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020, declared by the United Nations General Assembly in March 2010.     

Vision Zero--a road safety policy innovation

The aim of this paper is to examine Sweden's Vision Zero road safety policy. In particular, the paper focuses on how safety issues were framed, which decisions were made, and what are the distinctive features of Vision Zero. The analysis reveals that the decision by the Swedish Parliament to adopt Vision Zero as Sweden's road safety policy was a radical innovation. The policy is different in kind from traditional traffic safety policy with regard to problem formulation, its view on responsibility, its requirements for the safety of road users, and the ultimate objective of road safety work. The paper briefly examines the implications of these findings for national and global road safety efforts that aspire to achieving innovative road safety policies in line with the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011-2020, declared by the United Nations General Assembly in March 2010.     

Speed in a high-speed society

Abstract

Speed control is the most important aspect of promoting road safety world-wide. The question is how are speeds developing? The European Transport Safety Council concludes: There is little progress on reducing speeds in Europe. Similar conclusions can be drawn from the US and Australia. Attitude surveys show that people’s answers are not very consistent and represent statements without any strong bearing on norms or behaviour. Many factors are ‘pro-speed’: higher performance vehicles, more comfort, media coverage, etc. Enforcement, particularly with cameras and with section control is efficient, but the scale of adoption is too small. Traffic calming is efficient in cities, but the most obvious measure is one that makes it impossible to drive faster than the speed limit. During the last 30 years, a few trials have taken place which are promising; speeds at or below the speed limit, improved behaviour, and attitudes. The predicted effect is a reduction of up to 50% of fatalities in a regulation-driven scenario and a benefit to cost ratio of 3.5 to 4.8. It is time for authorities to see to it that lower speeds with the help of efficient vehicle-based solutions becomes part of the agenda.