Autoverkopen en autopark in Nederland, 1950–1970

Summary This is a study of the demand for the ownership of new or firsthand cars, i.e. the demand of ‘first owners’ who habitually buy new cars which are then traded in long before they are obsolescent. Upon combining the evidence of various surveys with time-series for 1950-64 it is found that this ownership has an income elasticity of 2 and a price elasticity of – 1.25 in respect of the constant-quality index of new car prices earlier provided. On the average new cars are traded in after three years so that roughly one third of the existing stock is replaced every year. These values together determine an equation for purchases of new cars which accurately predicts new registrations in 1965 and 1966. Projections for the years 1967-70 are provided. In the model employed the total number of cars (including used cars) is determined by the active demand exerted by ‘first owners’ on one hand and by the hitherto fairly constant scrappage rates on the other. Projections of the overall ownership rate can therefore be derived from the forecasts of new registrations. The ownership rate will approach 80% around 1970, and it is likely that at that stage the current scrappage rates will cease to apply in view of the greater predilection for comparatively younger cars.     

Levensduur en sloop van personenauto's in Nederland, 1950–1964*

Summary The life distribution of motorcars is examined over the period from 1950 to 1964. Age-specific survival rates, derived from Dutch registrations, are averaged and lead to the life table shown in table 4. The deviations from average age-specific survival rates show no significant variation over time nor over successive car generations. Since the registrations include an increasing number of used cars imported from Germany this apparent stability hides compensating changes in car scrap page. Since before the war the life expectancy of motorcars has increased from 8 to 11 years, and it is argued that this is due to the widening of the used car market. In the next stage, which is already well under way in Germany, new cars replace used cars, and rising apparent scrappage rates reflect the disposal of the latter by export.     

论所有者权益列报之改进

对于所有者权益的信息,现有三张会计报表的反映都不够充分:损益表与现金流量表仅仅从不同方面反映一个时期的公司利益状况;而资产负债表,虽然对所有者权益进行了分项排列,但是其静态报表的性质无法揭示更多的权益信息。现实中,“资本三原则”的应用实现了对债权人的保护,而通过对所有者权益信息的动态、历史的改进,可以满足外部股东的需求,故而是资产负债表中所有者权益排列格式的改进方向,从而提高会计报表信息的决策有用性。     

Structural Analysis of Electricity Demand and Supply Interactions*

We specify a structural asymmetric vector error‐correction model to identify and estimate the demand and supply functions in hourly day‐ahead wholesale electricity markets. In doing so, we provide, inter alia, new insights into a well‐established but unresolved issue concerning the extent of the demand elasticity to price in these markets. We show that whilst demand appears to be inelastic in the short‐run, the quantity traded on the market is significantly influenced by the price level and responds to previous disequilibria in the supply curve through an asymmetric error‐correction mechanism, reacting to a positive disequilibrium but not to a negative one.     

An empirical analysis of effects of gasoline price change on transportation behavior in Japan,with consideration of regional differences

This empirically analyzes the effect of gasoline price change on various aspects of surface transport behavior comprehensively, with consideration of regional differences as to whether or not the region includes a major metropolitan agglomeration area (hereafter, “megalopolis”), by means of carefully arranging yearly time-series data from fiscal 1987 to fiscal 2008 in Japan. The aim is to look at common as well as different effects among regions and to draw policy implications relating to fuel price, as well as to fuel tax, towards developing a low-carbon transport system, which are applicable to other countries including emerging countries where a demographic disparity between megalopolis areas and rural areas might be increasing. The methodology includes the multiple regression models complemented by the 1st order auto-regressive models of error terms, where the elasticities of gasoline price and those of income regarding usage of personal automobiles, of public transport and of passenger railways with or without periodic tickets, and fuel consumption on cars, as well as ownership of various types of cars, are estimated for individual gross-regions. In both gross-regions, higher gasoline prices are commonly shown to be related to lower ownership of larger private passenger cars, higher ownership of light cars, lower ownership of the total private passenger cars, lower passenger-km per capita in cars, lower fuel consumption on cars and higher transit ridership. The result suggests general automobile-fuel-price policy implications, the extent of which is differentiated by spatial characteristics, and estimates the adverse effect of the possible abolition of the provisional gasoline tax rate on the emissions in both gross-regions. The application of result is also tried in exploring effect of other policy measures such as expressway tolls.     

Is the secondary loan market valuable to borrowers?

In recent years, the secondary loan market has developed into an over-the-counter market where loans are not only sold but also subsequently traded. This shift away from traditional banking is altering the business of lending. Loan sales are valuable to banks because they free up capital, generate fee-based income and facilitate risk management; but they may be costly to borrowers because they negatively affect bank monitoring incentives. In this paper, however, we argue that there is another potential benefit to borrowers from loan sales. Borrowers with trading loans, in particular those with liquid loans, may “demand” a share of bank benefits from loan sales when they take out new loans as it will be easier for banks to sell these loans afterwards. We investigate this potential benefit of the secondary loan market by comparing the interest rates borrowers pay before their loans start to trade with the interest rates they pay on loans originated post-trading. Our results show that, on average, borrowers pay higher spreads on the loans they take out after the onset of trading on their loans. Importantly, our results also show that borrowers with liquid trading loans are able to borrow at lower interest rates after the onset of trading on their loans. Thus, while the banks’ decision to sell loans may initially impose a cost on borrowers, those whose loans enter the secondary loan market and become liquid benefit from an interest rate discount on their subsequent loans.     

A dymimic model of housing price determination

This paper presents and estimates a model of the resale housing market. The data are a cross-section of monthly time series obtained from the multiple-listing service for a suburb of San Diego. The model is specified and estimated as a dynamic multiple indicator multiple cause system of equations where the capitalization rate is taken to be an unobservable time series to be estimated jointly with the unknown parameters. These are estimated by maximum likelihood using an EM algorithm based upon Kalman filtering and smoothing.The specification of the model features hedonic equations for each house sale and a dynamic equation for the capitalization rate which is constrained to make the expectation of prices equal the present value of the net returns to home ownership whenever the economic variables stabilize at steady state values. Out of steady state, the capitalization rate slowly adapts to new information.The model attributes a large portion of housing price increases of the 1970's to a fall in the capitalization rate which in turn was driven by rental inflation, tax rates and mortgage rates. Post-sample simulations indicate an initial flattening of housing inflation rates and later a fall brought on by the increase in steady state capitalization rates. In-sample simulations show that although both Proposition 13 and the inflation induced rise in the marginal income tax rates provided partial explanations for the fall in capitalization rates, the single most important factor was the acceleration in price of housing services which interacted with the tax treatment of home ownership to produce an amazing 18% average annual rate of price increase over the last seven years of the 1970's.     

Housing demand in Mexico

This paper analyzes the components of housing demand in Mexico in the context of developing and developed nations. The case of Mexico is particularly interesting given that population and income dynamics, as well as current housing shortages, suggest that the demand for housing will significantly increase in the near future. We use micro-level data from market-based mortgages that originated during the period of 2002 to 2004 for 21 metropolitan areas in Mexico. We find the price elasticity of housing demand to be ?0.3, lower than previous studies for developed countries and within the range for developing countries. Permanent income is a major component of housing demand, with an elasticity of 0.8. In contrast, temporary income has a very low elasticity of 0.04. The mortgage rate elasticity for 25-year mortgages is ?0.39. We believe these results provide important information to policy makers and practitioners in Mexico and other developing nations.     

Household migration: theoretical and empirical results

A consumption theory of migration is developed which supplements the traditional job search models. Migration, seen as an equilibrating reaction to an initially non-optimal location, is analyzed using standard demand theory. When one groups goods into those that are traded between areas and those that are not (weather, racial discrimination, crime rates, etc.) it is clear that only changing demands for the non-traded goods will result in changing optimal locations (assuming supplies are fixed). Illustrating, an increase in family income might lead to an increased demand for the non-traded good “personal safety.” This might result, for example, in the substitution (through migration) of a lower crime suburban neighborhood for a higher crime central city neighborhood.An empirically testable implication of the model is that the probability of migration should be positively related to changes in the absolute value of those exogenous variables which lead to altered demands for non-traded goods. This and other hypotheses were examined using cross-sectional data in a nonlinear maximum likelihood (probit) regression analysis. The results strongly support the model and its implications.     

The impact of nicotine replacement therapies on cigarette demand

Over the past 20 years, several nicotine replacement therapies (NRTs) have been approved for use as smoking cessation aids, with over-the-counter use of these products approved beginning in 1996. To date, only one econometric study has examined the impact of NRT on cigarette demand, providing limited evidence that the availability of these products has reduced cigarette demand. This paper adds to this limited literature by examining the impact of NRT availability, pricing, and use on U.S. cigarette demand, concluding that NRT is a substitute for cigarettes and that the elasticity of cigarette demand with respect to NRT sales is-0.06. Support for this research has been provided by GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare. We thank Stavros Tsipas, Tomas Rinkunas, and Kenneth Jackson for excellent research assistance.     

政府保障房供求补贴的不同效果

解决中低收入人群的基本住房问题是实现社会公平的基本国策之一。为了有效地实施保障性安居工程，通过构建数学模型研究在财政补贴率相同的条件下，住房消费补贴与住房供给补贴的成交价格、成交量与社会福利情况，可以发现这两者之间存在较大的差别，前者的成交价格、成交量和社会福利都高于后者，但前者比后者的财政补贴额更多。如果提高财政补贴率，那么前者成交价格会不断提高，而后者成交价格会不断降低，成交量都会呈现扩大趋势。成交价格、成交量和社会福利不但与财政补贴率及其补贴方式有关，也与住房的需求弹性和供给弹性有关。研究结论的政策意义在于，如果在政府财力有限、住房价格上涨压力较大的条件下，应当采用住房供给补贴；如果在政府财力相对宽松、住房价格上涨压力相对较小、依靠住房拉动经济增长的压力较大的条件下，则应当采用住房消费补贴，同时它还能实现公平与效率兼顾的目的。无论是采用住房消费补贴还是住房供给补贴，都应当增大供给弹性，减小需求弹性。     

基于系统动力学的天津市城市交通能源消耗与碳排放预测

文章基于2000年-2010年的基础数据,利用系统动力学的方法,对公交车、出租车、私家车的数量及能源消耗、碳排放做了定量分析,并对在十二五期间城市交通能源消耗、碳排放进行了预测,通过情景分析认为应当鼓励居民利用公共交通出行,同时提高公交系统的运营能力和运营效率,控制私家车的迅猛增长并逐步淘汰高耗能汽车,鼓励新能源汽车和混合动力汽车的研发。     

An econometric model of new-car demand in the UK

An econometric model which explains the demand for new cars is specified and estimated, and good empirical results are obtained which imply that the model should provide reliable forecasts of new-car demand. Furthermore, these forecasts are likely to be greatly superior to those generated by simple naive models.     

Length of residence discounts,turnover, and demand elasticity. Should long-term tenants pay less than new tenants?

Previous academic work on rental contracts has predicted that landlords will attempt to minimize turnover costs by giving discounts to long-term tenants. If long-term tenants have less elastic demand than short-term tenants, however, landlords might prefer to give discounts to short-term tenants. A model is developed in this paper in which landlords take account of both turnover costs and demand elasticity. Evidence from a survey of apartment managers is consistent with the model and shows that length-of-residence discounts are less common than discounts on the first month’s rent for new tenants.     

住房市场的刚性需求与投资需求测算——以北京市为例

对微观经济学中的需求价格弹性进行了修正,提出了测算住房市场中刚性需求和投资需求的方法,并实际测算了北京市住房市场的刚性需求和投资需求。结果表明,北京市住房市场刚性需求和投资需求的比例在每一年度都不尽相同,部分年份刚性需求占主导地位,部分年份投资需求占主导地位;同时,投资需求和住房价格增长率之间呈现很好的同步关系,在投资需求占主导地位的年份,住房价格增长速度明显加快。     

Consumer Food Co-ops in the Age of Grocery Giants

As the primary purveyors of food within most neighborhoods, food retailers—particularly grocery stores—are key determinants of health. Grocery stores are also an important venue for food producers to access their customers. Over the previous 100 years—and more rapidly over the previous 40 years—ownership among grocery retailers has become concentrated in fewer firms. As a consequence, grocery stores have emerged as food system “gatekeepers.” On one side of the gate are consumers, who depend on these firms to access the food supply. On the other side are the food producers: farmers, ranchers, fishers, processors, and manufacturers. As concentration in the grocery retail sector increases, so too have the grocery giants’ practices enabled them to assume much stronger positions in the buyer-supplier relationship. With a focus on the United States and Canada, this article examines the history and rise to dominance of the largest grocery retailers and the impacts this dominance has had on the food system. Whereas most food retailers are structured under private or publicly traded models of ownership, the cooperative business model—specifically, the consumer-cooperative model—is presented as an important alternative. Cooperatives are a democratic form of ownership that enables the people who most depend on the grocery store (shoppers) to become equal owners in the business along with thousands of others in their community. The importance of consumer-food cooperatives (food co-ops) is examined, including specific case studies of small and large urban centers where food co-ops are providing substantial benefits to the communities they operate in.     

Temporary international migration and the nontraded sector of the labor-importing developing economy

In this paper the author examines the effects of external migration on the nontraded sector of the labor-importing developing economy. It is found that devaluation by the labor-exporting country will reduce the pressure on excess demand for labor and reduce the price of nontraded goods. Increases in the migrant workers’ consumption expenditures, the government expenditures on nontraded goods and the price of traded goods will increase the pressure on excess demand for labor and raise the price of nontraded goods. The effects of an increase in host country nominal wage, however, will remain ambiguous.     

The home field advantage: Implications for the pricing of tickets to professional team sporting events

Existing empirical estimates of the elasticity of demand for tickets to professional team sporting events are consistently inelastic, throwing into question the assumption of profit-maximizing behavior on the part of team management. We provide a new theory of team sport ticket pricing, based on the home field advantage, which implies that the elasticity of demand relevant for profit maximization is more elastic than the traditional ceteris paribus elasticity measure. Thus, the inelastic traditional point estimates are not necessarily inconsistent with team profit maximization.     

The elasticity of derived demand, factor substitution, and product demand: Corrections to Hicks' formula and Marshall's Four Rules

The concept of the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor, introduced by John Hicks and Joan Robinson over 75 years ago, has had important implications in labor economics and several areas of economic inquiry. In his The Theory of Wages (1932/1963), Hicks developed a formula that has proven very useful in relating the substitution elasticity to the derived demand for productive factors, the distribution of factor incomes, and Marshall's Four Rules. This short paper shows that the original and subsequent derivations of Hicks' celebrated formula contained a slip (that factor shares are independent of the substitution elasticity and therefore constant), presents a new derivation and a corrected formula, and demonstrates that, with the corrected formula, Marshall's First Rule based on the substitution elasticity is no longer generally valid.