What future generations need from us

What do future generations need from us? Various procedures, including individual and group role playing at 13 locations in nine countries, can help us answer this question. In general, future generations need equal opportunity (a legacy as beneficial as ours was), our caring about their well-being, and attention to their needs in our legislatures and parliaments. Their particular needs are for us to focus on peace and security, the environment, the worst risks of all, governance, the knowledge base, children and learning. The needs of future generations may provide the centrepiece for a new global ethic that improves our prospects for a positive future.     

Public Pension Reform in the United Kingdom: What Effect on the Financial Well‐Being of Current and Future Pensioners?*

Unlike many tax and benefit changes, reforms to public pension programmes take many years to have their full effect. This paper examines the effect of reforms to the public pension programme in the United Kingdom on the state retirement incomes of current generations of pensioners and on the prospective state incomes of future generations of pensioners. We show that, for an individual with lifetime earnings close to male average earnings, the UK pension system is at its most generous to those reaching the state pension age around the year 2000, but that the introduction of the state second pension and the pension credit postpones this peak for individuals on lower incomes and for those with substantial periods out of paid employment spent with caring responsibilities. We also consider how the ‘mix’ of benefits, particularly between the contributory and income‐tested sectors, could change over time, and the impact that this would have on incentives to save for retirement.     

Democracy in the ageing society: Quest for political equilibrium between generations

The ageing of society looms large as having a huge impact on the future political landscape, and is increasingly being acknowledged as a serious threat to the sustainability of democracy. The ageing of the voting electorate is contributing to the political imbalance between the old and young generations, and has the potential to levy excessive burden on future generations. With this background in mind, this research seeks to point out, through reform of the electoral system, the problems of silver democracy caused by societal ageing, and to suggest ways to achieve political equilibrium between generations. Key suggestions are: 1) changing the basis of electoral districts from geographic area to age-cohort; 2) establishment of a new future generations district which can speak for the rights of those who are currently underage; and 3) weighting of votes cast by the younger generations, who may be at a numerical disadvantage in elections.     

论市场经济发展中生态道德理念的完善

当今人们对生态环境问题十分关注,这种关注出自人们各种各样的情感,集中表现为对社会的忧虑感,对子孙后代的责任感,对土地、淡水资源滥用的危机感等等,使得人们对生态环境的未来感到困惑和恐惧。在市场经济发展的过程中建立完善的全球共同遵循的生态道德理念,对保护人类生态环境、实现人与自然的和谐发展是非常必要的。     

Wenn nicht jetzt, wann dann? Zur Reform der Pflegeversicherung

The recent reform of the German compulsory long-term care insurance provides for an adjustment of the benefits. According to our calculations, the reform proposal will fail to ensure constant benefits in real terms, due to an increase of the demand for long-term care associated with population ageing. Furthermore, as long-term care insurance is payroll based and pay-as-you-go financed, it will substantially burden future generations. For this reason, further reforms are needed if sustainability is to be achieved. A transition from a pay-as-you-go to a funded system would disburden future generations almost completely, at the cost of transitory generations whose payments would markedly increase. Delaying the reform even a few years would however increase the burden for future generations again.     

What's in a name: Reflections on Ziauddin Sardar's ‘the namesake’

This paper argues that the semantic difficulties surrounding the term ‘futures’ and its many variants have significantly impacted this field's legitimacy in public policy circles, as viewed from the experiences of this author. Lacking legitimacy, it has been difficult to build the number of academic programs in the United States needed to improve the field's legitimacy, branding, and quality. In addition to issue of semantics, the field needs to improve its central messages while maintaining its core strengths; diversity of thought and commitment to future generations.     

Financing climate policies through climate bonds – A three stage model and empirics

The funding of climate mitigation and adaptation policies has become an essential issue in climate negotiations. Emissions trading schemes (ETS) and carbon tax policies are widely discussed as viable mitigation strategies, the revenue from which might then be used for adaptation efforts. In most current models, the burden of enacting mitigation and adaptation policies falls on current generations. This paper expands on a recent article by Sachs (2014) that proposes intertemporal burden sharing, suggesting that implementation of climate policies would represent a Pareto improving strategy for both current and future generations. In particular, this paper proposes that green bonds (also referred to as climate bonds) represent an immediately implementable opportunity to initiate Sachs’ plan; the issuance of green bonds could fund immediate investment in climate mitigation such that the debt might be repaid by the future generations, those who benefit most from reduced environmental damages. The Sachs model is a discrete time overlapping generations model which we generalize and turn into a continuous time version exhibiting three major stages. We solve this three phase model by using a new numerical procedure called NMPC that allows for finite horizon solutions and phase changes. We show that the issued bonds can be repaid and the debt is sustainable within a finite time horizon. We also study econometrically whether the current macroeconomic environment is conducive to successfully phasing in such climate bonds.     

The dynamics of government

We model income redistribution with dynamic distortions as determined by rational voting without commitment among individuals of different types and income realizations. We find that redistribution is too persistent relative to that chosen by a planner with commitment. The difference is larger, the lower is the political influence of young agents, the lower is the altruistic concern for future generations, and the lower is risk-aversion. Furthermore, there tends to be too much redistribution in the political equilibrium. Finally, smooth preference aggregation, as under probabilistic voting, produces less persistence and does not admit multiple equilibria, which occur under majority-voting aggregation.     

Lifetime Generational Accounts for the Netherlands*

Conventional generational accounting only includes future benefits and burdens from the government. This paper's contribution is to include past benefits and burdens as well, and in this way to provide a full lifetime account of how much current and future generations benefit from government, in net terms, under various future policy lines. The calculations are carried out for the Netherlands and for the cohorts born since 1946. The more complete picture may be helpful for political decision‐making on equitable intergenerational policies. A second contribution of this paper is that it uses a more comprehensive benefit concept than other such backward‐looking studies by including non‐cash benefits as well. The results point out that there are substantial differences in net lifetime benefits between generations and these are mainly driven by non‐cash benefits such as education and healthcare, on which expenditure increased substantially after 1946.     

Future generations thinking

Future generations thinking provides a non-Western reading of space, time, nature and self, contrasting itself with the liberal openness of much of futures studies by asserting a non-negotiatable core. This includes a commitment to the family as a basic unit of analysis; inclusion of all sentient beings; belief in the repeatability of time; an inter-generational approach balancing ancestors and future generations; sustainable social and economic practices; a global focus; a spiritual and collective view towards choice and rationality; and the realization of a global ethics beyond postmodernity. In practice, however, future generations thinking often falls short of its claims. Nevertheless, if future generations thinking can become authentically multi-civilizational, it could create a new history for future generations.     

Colonizing mars—An opportunity for reconsidering bioethical standards and obligations to future generations

The exploration and settlement of Mars provides a rare opportunity to reconsider our ethical, political, philosophical, and economic relationships with non-human life (very broadly defined) relatively free of many of the constraints that have framed and limited our analyses throughout our many histories. Manned and robotic exploration throughout and beyond our solar system also fosters reconsideration of our obligations to future generations and allows for expansion of membership in the class that constitutes those generations. This paper argues that the concept of “future generations” should not be limited to Homo sapiens, as currently defined. Opportunities for a higher ethical standard within the context of the discovery of extraterrestrial life are discussed in terms of a thought experiment and mechanisms to allow future generations to be represented in these ethical discussions are suggested.     

Toward governance for future generations: How do we change course?

In 1987, the UN World Commission on Environment and Development—perhaps better known as the Brundtland Commission—concluded that our present societal course is irresponsible toward future generations. Ten years later, we have hardly come closer to a solution of our planet's long-range problems. But how do we change the course? Are there viable pathways that can take us from the present stalemate to a society that cares for future generations? The bottleneck is not a lack of good proposals for approaching sustainability. It is rather the lack of strength to implement them. Discussions about strategies and motors of social change have very often been absent on the `green' agenda, but exceptions do exist. This article will present and analyse main strategic profiles within an expanding flora of literature about sustainability.     

How long might the younger-old live: A predictive model

Life expectancy amongst older people in industrialised countries has been improving over an extended period and still continues to do so. This has ramifications for providers of services to this population, thus necessitating a level of forward planning. Predictive models of remaining life expectancy for older age groups can assist long-term planning processes. This paper presents an extrapolative approach to forecasting remaining life expectancy. Based on logistic modelling of historic mortality and survivorship for the “younger-old” male population of England and Wales over the period 1970-2005, a parsimonious two-parameter model is derived. This model provides a close correspondence to published period life table data. Trends in these parameters are then fitted and extrapolated to enable projections of life expectancy up to 40 years into the future. Alternative assumptions are used to determine a range of future life expectancy trajectories for a 65-year-old male. Occupational pension scheme provision is identified as an area of particular concern in the context of increasing longevity. As an illustration, the life expectancy trajectories are combined with differing discount rate assumptions to generate a number of alternative pension liability scenarios for the extrapolation period.     

Insurance-adjusted valuation,decision making,and capital return

Although the insurance industry has a significant economic role, few theoretical studies link insurance with the overlapping generations economy. This study suggests a new overlapping generations model that includes insurance in the agents' economic decisions under the uncertainty of financial losses. In this insurance model, we derive risk-averse workers' optimal insurance purchases and consumption based on the insurance-adjusted valuations, which are the present value of the income streams minus insurance premiums paid in the future. The theoretical equilibrium model predicts capital returns, wealth, labor supply, etc. Our findings show that higher workforce and technological progress increase private insurance demand and reduce the capital-output ratio, and higher losses as a fraction of output increase social insurance demand and reduce the capital-output ratio via numerical comparative statics.     

A vision of futures studies

The article looks at futures studies from the point of view of the author who has spent over 30 years in the field, with special reference to the World Futures Studies Federation. It suggests that visions are essential for conducting futures studies and education in futures studies is vital for preparing future oriented new generations. The author points out that around the world women are developing silent alternatives to the present societies geared to conflict and violence; this may lead to non-violent changes of which many are not aware. Futures studies will also benefit from examining futures of cultures as we seem to be developing a new culture of peace.     

Long-term thinking and the politics of reconceptualization

This essay is a response to the dominance of short-term thinking in Western culture. It begins with a critique of the minimal, or fleeting, present and then explores some possibilities for extending what might be meant by the ‘present’. It suggests that considerable utility may be derived from a more careful and considered use of particular timeframes. It is doubtful whether questions of sustainability, the rights of future generations and, indeed, the disciplined study of futures can be resolved without a number of innovations based on long-term thinking. The latter part of the essay considers two—the creation of institutions of foresight and an international programme of 21st century studies.     

School, images of the futures and social processes in classrooms

Futures studies express a deep concern for the negative effect school education has on young people's images of the future and their proactive attitude to the future. Here, images are regarded as cultural maps and the article attempts to outline a model of interaction in the classroom, which may be useful for understanding how school practices affect images.Given the cultural perspective on images, the analysis focuses on the social processes that organise the creation, negotiation, and distribution of cultural inventories in the classroom, including the meanings and meaningful expressions about future.

Whenever a culture is understood to be a collective phenomenon, it needs a sociology. When this sociology is left implicit, the danger is greater than it is a weak sociology.Ulf Hannerz

     

Science and society, 1915–1945: the best and the worst

So far this series has looked at the sporadic and amateur development of writing about the future. Before 1914 the examination of coming things was for the most part an interest for writers of fiction, journalists, some politicians and some professionals. The devastating effects of technology during World War I made the study of the future too important to be left to amateurs; it began to be a matter of serious concern for experts and for governments. This article examines these developments during the inter-war years, and it suggests that one of the most decisive factors in changing societies has been the power of Oldthink.     

A vision for communities in the 21st century: back to the future

Globalization, in its capitalistic and popular cultural form, is impacting communities around the world. This paper uses two models to show how globalization actually arose several millennia ago and how the process has greatly accelerated in recent times. One model describes the ‘information technology system’ and the second is James Miller’s living systems model. Using these models as a foundation, this paper argues that globalization can severely weaken communities and is antithetical to future-oriented perspectives. If current globalization trends continue unabated, globalization may result in a future world characterized by satiated consumers whose every desire is met by a totally efficient but completely impersonal economic system. In this world, people do not depend directly upon face-to-face interaction for their economic well being. Because of this, community and even culture collapses. Contrasted to this soulless world, it is argued that a new future could evolve where concern about the future replaces individualistic and market-oriented concerns as the prime motivator of public policy. This future has a good probability of occurring since current populations are being socialized to understand the broad concept of globalization. Additionally, new technologies will allow the development of small, mostly self-sufficient communities which will facilitate the re-emergence of community life and obligations.