Consumer-driven health care: the future is now

Given that managed care seems to have run its course, employers are forced to deal with escalating health care costs by reducing benefits and lowering pay--or are they? Why not bring the power of the responsible, informed consumer to health care? Consumer-driven health care offers a new, economically rational direction that can simultaneously address the needs of both employers and employees. This article reviews the factors leading to the need for consumer-driven health care and describes the characteristics and benefits of its current and next generations of development.     

Why hard-nosed executives should care about management theory

Theory often gets a bum rap among managers because it's associated with the word "theoretical," which connotes "impractical." But it shouldn't. Because experience is solely about the past, solid theories are the only way managers can plan future actions with any degree of confidence. The key word here is "solid." Gravity is a solid theory. As such, it lets us predict that if we step off a cliff we will fall, without actually having to do so. But business literature is replete with theories that don't seem to work in practice or actually contradict each other. How can a manager tell a good business theory from a bad one? The first step is understanding how good theories are built. They develop in three stages: gathering data, organizing it into categories highlighting significant differences, then making generalizations explaining what causes what, under which circumstances. For instance, professor Ananth Raman and his colleagues collected data showing that bar code-scanning systems generated notoriously inaccurate inventory records. These observations led them to classify the types of errors the scanning systems produced and the types of shops in which those errors most often occurred. Recently, some of Raman's doctoral students have worked as clerks to see exactly what kinds of behavior cause the errors. From this foundation, a solid theory predicting under which circumstances bar code systems work, and don't work, is beginning to emerge. Once we forgo one-size-fits-all explanations and insist that a theory describes the circumstances under which it does and doesn't work, we can bring predictable success to the world of management.     

A foresight strategy for future generations

This paper briefly considers three key areas where forward thinking is particularly vital: education, business and government. Drawing mainly upon examples from the Australian context, it suggests a broad rationale for establishing a ‘national foresight strategy’. The latter is supported by a more general model for developing social foresight. A further stimulus to forward thinking and future vision is to consider what advice future generations might offer us if they had the chance.     

What future generations need from us

What do future generations need from us? Various procedures, including individual and group role playing at 13 locations in nine countries, can help us answer this question. In general, future generations need equal opportunity (a legacy as beneficial as ours was), our caring about their well-being, and attention to their needs in our legislatures and parliaments. Their particular needs are for us to focus on peace and security, the environment, the worst risks of all, governance, the knowledge base, children and learning. The needs of future generations may provide the centrepiece for a new global ethic that improves our prospects for a positive future.     

Trusting future generations, trusting life

The paper outlines an experiential philosophy and approach to teaching and learning about future generations and about life. It includes outlines of two processes facilitated by the author as part of a deep ecology workshop.     

Why the computer industry is restructuring now

For over 30 years the computer industry has been a growth sector. Recently major players have run into trouble and many smaller ones have fallen under the onslaught of two major forces. Firstly, what is being sold, to whom, and with what margins is changing rapidly as computing moves from being an immature, high technology market for major corporations and specialists to a mass market for every size of firm. Secondly, the industry has by tradition depended on a confused jumble of proprietary standards to defend market share. Today the phenomenon of open systems is destroying those old defences. Long-term survival will mean not only adjusting to the effects of open systems on reducing traditional margins but also playing by the new rules of the resultant commodity market. Success will depend on rapid readjustment, with exploitation of the internal influences of open systems on the company value chain, in order to slim down yet achieve a new scale of productivity.     

What future generations might say to us

If future generations could speak to us, what might they say to us about our efforts to learn and teach about them? Probably they would ask us to understand their perspective, to feel connected to them, and to care deeply. When we teach about future generations we should affect the head, heart, soul and hands. This learning and teaching should include inspiration, transpersonal bonding, empowerment, a personal affirmation or pledge, a sense of meaning and purpose, and a commitment to action. Certain books and journals can be especially useful for gaining the perspective of future generations.     

会计随想——"巧妇" 因何要为此之"炊"

曾几何时,一旦有人指责中国上市公司“圈钱”,上市公司便辩解曰“巧妇难为无米之炊”。乍一听,颇为理直气壮,潜台词也很清楚,意思就是“我要不圈钱,我哪有钱做事情”。的确,再巧的媳妇,如果没有米怎么做得出饭呢!然而,这只是问题的一个方面。如果我们进一步思考,不禁要问:巧妇为何要为此之“炊”?上市公司凭什么认为自己就是“巧妇”呢?如果上市公司果真是“巧妇”,股东(投资者或股民)又为何要把自家的“米”拿给“巧妇”去“炊”呢?在市场经济环境下,上市公司是最能体现现代市场经济本质特征的企业组织形式。上市公司的理财行为奠基于现代…     

Obligations to future generations and acceptable risks of human extinction

This paper addresses the question, ‘what is the acceptable risk of human extinction?’ Three qualitative obligations to future generations - The Fairness Criterion, The Unfinished Business Criterion, and the Maintaining Options Criterion - are used to produce quantitative estimates of the acceptable risk. The resulting acceptable risks are all at or below 10⁻²⁰, a very stringent standard.     

Colonizing mars—An opportunity for reconsidering bioethical standards and obligations to future generations

The exploration and settlement of Mars provides a rare opportunity to reconsider our ethical, political, philosophical, and economic relationships with non-human life (very broadly defined) relatively free of many of the constraints that have framed and limited our analyses throughout our many histories. Manned and robotic exploration throughout and beyond our solar system also fosters reconsideration of our obligations to future generations and allows for expansion of membership in the class that constitutes those generations. This paper argues that the concept of “future generations” should not be limited to Homo sapiens, as currently defined. Opportunities for a higher ethical standard within the context of the discovery of extraterrestrial life are discussed in terms of a thought experiment and mechanisms to allow future generations to be represented in these ethical discussions are suggested.     

Why panel tests of purchasing power parity should allow for heterogeneous mean reversion

Recent studies of purchasing power parity (PPP) use panel tests that fail to take into account heterogeneity in the speed of mean reversion across real exchange rates. In contrast to several other severe restrictions of panel models and tests of PPP, the assumption of homogeneous mean reversion is still widely used and its consequences are virtually unexplored. This paper analyzes the properties of homogeneous and heterogeneous panel unit root testing methodologies. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we uncover important adverse properties of the panel approach that relies on homogeneous estimation and testing. More specifically, power functions are low and assume irregular shapes. Furthermore, homogeneous estimates of the mean reversion parameters exhibit potentially large biases. These properties can lead to misleading inferences on the validity of PPP. Our findings highlight the importance of allowing for heterogeneous estimation when testing for a unit root in panels of real exchange rates.     

CPI上涨从紧货币政策不能变

正如各方提前预测的一样,受春节和雪灾等因素影响,1月份我国居民消费价格指数（CPI）再创新高。     

不谈法律?

美国的金融创新产品与其说是重在规避风险,不如说是重在规避法律.而投资者热烈欢迎金融创新产品的一个重要原因,正是因为此类产品有助于他们规避监管,规避风险只是其次.金融创新的要害是什么?要害就是不谈法律