Friendly Fire? The Impact of US Antidumping Enforcement on US Exporters

While there has been considerable interest in recent years in the role of macroeconomic determinants of antidumping actions by the United States and other traditional users, on the one hand, and the determinants of the growing global usage of this trade policy instrument, on the other, there has to date been no systematic exploration of the motivations for the significant number of foreign antidumping cases filed against US exporters. Several observers have remarked that the growing number of foreign users of antidumping might threaten US exporters, but the determinants of these actions have not been examined. That is the purpose of this study. We find that these actions are in part explained by macroeconomic forces and as a response to US export superiority in particular sectors, however a significant role (and larger than found for global antidumping more generally) is played by retaliation for US trade policy actions. JEL no.  F13     

Do Immigrant Groups Differ in Welfare Usage? Evidence from the U.S.

The study of welfare participation in the United States prior to the 1996 Welfare Reform Act and afterward has primarily focused on comparing native and immigrant households. Analyses that have gone beyond this broad classification have focused on comparisons across race, with particular focus on Hispanic immigrants. This paper moves away from the existing literature by investigating whether there is a difference in welfare usage among immigrant based on their birthplace. Using a probit model, we investigate this potential difference by testing two related hypotheses. Our results suggest that the probability of welfare usage for immigrants with similar characteristic, differ for some immigrant groups. We also find that for some immigrant groups, citizen and noncitizens differ with respect to welfare usage.     

U.S.–Japan and U.S.–China trade conflict: Export growth,reciprocity, and the international trading system

First Japan and more recently China have pursued export-oriented growth strategies. While other Asian countries have done likewise, Japan and China are of particular interest because their economies are so large and the size of the associated bilateral trade imbalances with the United States so conspicuous. In this paper we focus on U.S. efforts to restore the reciprocal GATT/WTO market-access bargain in the face of such large imbalances and the significant spillovers to the international trading system. The paper highlights similarities and differences in the two cases. We describe U.S. attempts to reduce the bilateral imbalances through targeted trade policies intended to slow growth of U.S. imports from these countries or increase growth of U.S. exports to them. We then examine how these trade policy responses, as well as U.S. efforts to address what were perceived as underlying causes of the imbalances, influenced the evolution of the international trading system. Finally, we compare the macroeconomic conditions associated with the bilateral trade imbalances and their implications for the conclusions of the two episodes.     

Has Greater Competition Restrained U.S. Inflation?

This paper shows how increased goods market competition affects the behavior of inflation in a multisector economy. By raising the price elasticity of demand, increased goods market competition theoretically lowers inflation and makes the aggregate price level less sensitive to aggregate demand shocks. We find that proxies for the aggregate degree of goods market competition are statistically and economically significant in short-run Phillips curve models of core inflation. Evidence indicates that heightened goods market competition has flattened the slope of the short-run, expectations-augmented Phillips curve and slightly lowered the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU).     

Is U.S. money causing China's output?

This paper tries to answer the long-standing question of whether money causes output. Instead of focusing on domestic monetary policy and output, we analyze U.S. monetary policy and its possible effects on real output in China. Our results indicate that the main monetary instrument in the U.S., the Federal Fund Rate, Granger causes China's output. A second monetary variable, U.S. money supply, does not seem to have a significant effect on China's output. The results are supported by variance decompositions, which indicate that Federal Fund Rate shocks have an effect on China's real output. The findings have important implications for policy makers in China that focus on maintaining a high and stable economic growth.     

The U.S.–China trade war: Tariff data and general equilibrium analysis

The current trade war between the United States and China is unprecedented in modern history. This study introduces a database of tariff increases resulting from the trade war and quantifies the impacts using the canonical GTAPinGAMS model calibrated to the recently released GTAP version 10 accounts. We find that the remaining tariff increases as of March 2020 after the phase one trade deal decrease welfare in China by 1.7% and welfare in the United States by 0.2%. Impacts on sectoral revenue are reported for both countries. China's exports to and imports from the United States are reduced by 52.3% and 49.3%. The trade flow between the United States and China will be diverted to their major trade partners resulting in higher welfare in those countries, including many Asian countries. The estimated impacts are robust to using alternative trade elasticities and are amplified in the absence of the phase one tariff reductions.     

Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined

This paper examines the stability of import and export demand functions for the United States over the 1975q1–2001q2 period. Using the Johansen maximum likelihood approach, an export demand function is readily identified. In contrast, there appears to be a structural break in the import demand function in 1995; specifications incorporating this break pass tests for cointegration, although the price elasticity is not statistically significant. Only when excluding computers and parts from the import series is a stable import demand function detected. The resulting point estimates confirm the persistence of the income asymmetry first noted by Houthakker and Magee, although in a slightly diminished form. One policy implication of these findings is that dollar depreciation—unaccompanied by a realignment of growth trends—is insufficient to substantially reduce the U.S. trade deficit. JEL no. F31, F41     

Decomposing the U.S. Great Depression: How important were loan supply shocks?

We measure the contributions of loan supply shocks and other macroeconomic shocks to U.S. output dynamics during the Great Depression. Using structural vector autoregressions, we impose sign restrictions to identify shocks. We find that loan supply shocks contributed negatively to output growth between 1931 and 1933, at the same time as the U.S. experienced several waves of banking crises. Thus, our results support the view that disruptions in credit availability contributed to the depth and length of the Great Depression. We also find that adverse aggregate demand and monetary policy shocks were important factors in the downturn.     

The Japanese–U.S. trade balance and the yen: Evidence from industry data

While it is often assumed that a country's trade balance will improve in the long-run if its currency is allowed to depreciate, this is not necessarily the case for specific goods. In the short run, the opposite might even take place, as fixed quantities and rising import prices cause the trade balance to deteriorate. In this paper, we apply cointegration methodology to assess the short- and long-run impact of fluctuations in the yen–dollar real exchange rate on Japan's trade balance with the U.S. for 117 industries. We find that depreciation causes the trade balance to improve in the long-run for about one-third of Japanese industries. Most short-run effects are in the same direction, indicating a quick improvement in these industries’ trade balance, rather than a period of deterioration such as a “J-curve.”     

China: How to Fight the Antidumping War?

I. IntroductionSince the erection of WTO in 1995, "dumping" has become a major source of trade disputes among its member countries. The number of antidumping cases pending before various legal forums is climbing up rapidly. According to data on antidumping practice of 2002 released by the WTO Secretariat, 21 member countries initiated 330 antidumping investigations against exports from a total of 64 different countries or customs territories. Of the 330 investigations, there were 182 cases initiated by developed countries and therest of 148 were initiated by developing countries. China,     

Comparison on Venture Capital Mechanism between the U.S. and Japan and Its Implications

Focusing on the mechanism of venture capital in fund-raising, domain, stage, scale, and exit, this paper makes a comparison on the differences of venture capital mechanism between the U.S.A. and Japan. Further, it probes into the causes of these differences in structures of resource and organization and cultural background of venture capital. And finally it summarizes on the policy implications in developing venture capital in China.     

Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilizations: What are the Gains from Cooperation?

In this paper we extend the open-economy stochastic framework of Obstfeld and Rogoff (Q J Econ. 117:503–36, 2002) to include distortionary taxation, when prices are flexible but wages are sticky. We use the model to analyze the optimal design of tax rules that respond to productivity shocks, under non-cooperation and cooperation between the fiscal authorities, and evaluate the gains from coordination. We show that, although monetary policy would be preferred to fiscal policy as a stabilization tool both under competition (Nash) and under cooperation, there is a role for procyclical fiscal stabilization in a monetary union where the monetary authority cannot respond to asymmetric shocks. Moreover, we show that in the Nash game there will be an incentive for the fiscal authorities to try to manipulate the terms-of-trade in their favor, and we estimate the potential gains from fiscal policy coordination. The size of the gains depends crucially on the value of the Frisch elasticity of labor supply. For lower values of the Frisch elasticity (more in line with microeconometric estimates) the gains are relatively small, but for more elastic labor supplies (more in agreement with the business cycle literature) the gains can be very large.

Import Source Reallocation and U.S. Manufacturing Employment, 1972–2001

Examining the US manufacturing sector, we focus on the potential employment effects of shifts in import sources from relatively high- to low-income nations. Data for 384 6-digit NAICS US manufacturing industries that span the years 1972–2001 are utilized. Increased import penetration is found to reduce both production and non-production employment; however, such job loss is countered by export-led job creation. Extending the literature, we report that reallocation of import sources from high- to low-income nations reduces manufacturing employment, and when shifts in import sources coincide with rising import penetration the result is an acceleration of job loss. I wish to thank the editor and the two anonymous referees for their valuable comments and suggestions.     

Are the Responses of the U.S. Economy Asymmetric to Positive and Negative Money Supply Shocks?

We investigate whether the United States economy responds asymmetrically to positive and negative money supply shocks of different magnitude, using a test recently introduced by Kilian and Vigfusson (Quant Econ 2:419–453, 2011) based on impulse response functions. We use quarterly data, over the period from 1967:1 to 2014:1, and the new CFS Divisia monetary aggregates, making a comparison among the narrower monetary aggregates, M1, M2M, MZM, M2, and ALL, and the broad monetary aggregates, M4+, M4-, and M3. We show that there is no statistically significant evidence of asymmetry in the response of the U.S. economy to positive and negative money supply shocks of different magnitude.     

Be All That You Can Be?: Racial Identity Production in the U.S. Military

This analysis applies concepts from Stratification Economics to undertake an empirical investigation of racial identity production in the U.S. military. The theoretical model treats racial identity as a Becker-type commodity produced by combining market goods and services, and time, using a technology based on pre-existing cultural knowledge. The model is estimated using data from the 1996 Armed Forces Equal Opportunity Survey. The findings suggest that pre-military constructions of racial identity and patterns of racial interaction significantly constrain efforts to inculcate an identification with military culture that sublimates the sources of racial conflict. To the extent that racial tensions deteriorate in the civilian sector it is likely that the challenges facing the military in fostering unit cohesion will intensify. Existing interventions designed to promote military identity and diffuse sources of racial tension appear to have limited efficacy.     

Convergence in Revealed Preferences for Automobiles as Differentiated Goods: U.S. and OECD Countries: 1970–1999

Attributes of differentiated goods in personal consumption have both conceptual and policy importance in macroeconomic applications that include obsolescence rates of capital stock, the savings rate, and environmental issues. While there is both direct and indirect evidence of variation in preferences for these attributes across countries, there is also conjecture that recent global integration has reduced this variation. We examine convergence between the U.S. and four OECD countries in the levels of automobile attributes over the 1970–1999 period. Results of panel unit root tests with the U.S. as the comparison country showed convergence in the constructed measures of size, performance and efficiency. In pairwise comparisons between the U.S. and OECD countries, results of our model estimations indicated convergence in size and efficiency with estimated half lives to convergence of between four to six years. Disaggregating the definitional components of performance, results show convergence in horsepower when selected economic variables are controlled. We find that measures of trade, per capita income and price appear to be among the mechanisms through which increasing global integration relates to convergence. Directions for further study of convergence preferences for attribute profiles across countries are discussed.     

Decomposing China–Japan–U.S. trade: Vertical specialization,ownership, and organizational form

We use the US International Trade Commission's uniquely detailed 1995–2007 Chinese Customs data to better understand the pattern of trade between China and its two largest trading partners, Japan and the United States. Our review finds that only a small share of these flows can be characterized as arm's length, one-way trade in final goods. Instead, we find extensive two-way trade, deep vertical specialization, concentration of trade in computer and communication devices, and a prominent role for foreign-invested enterprises. While these characteristics define both bilateral relationships, important differences between the two pairs do emerge, suggesting that trade costs influence the method by which multinationals choose to integrate their production with China. Consequently, we argue that dialogue on East Asian trade liberalization should include the possibility of significant production gains for the US from its inclusion in any regional agreements.     

Comparative productivity of Japanese and U.S. steel producers, 1958–1993

Using historical, firm-level data, this study compares the productivity of Japanese and U.S. integrated steel producers. In recent decades Japanese producers have demonstrated higher labor productivity than their U.S. counterparts, due largely to higher investment. Calculations of multi-factor productivity suggest that the American firms, nevertheless, maintain a small advantage in overall efficiency. One implication is that steel producers in Japan may have invested too heavily in capital equipment, while American companies invested too little. In both countries, productivity differences among integrated steel producers appear small relative to those found among auto manufacturers.