收入增长和分配对我国农村减贫的影响—方法、特征与证据

改革开放30年来,在农村居民收入水平快速增长的大背景下,农村减贫进程却表现出明显的波动性和不一致性。基于此,本文在贫困分解的基础上,运用贫困弹性的动态特征,从理论和实证的角度探讨了收入增长和收入分配对贫困减少的影响,解释上述问题。文章发现：（1）人均收入水平越高,贫困越有可能和收入不平等联系在一起;（2）收入不平等越严重的地区,贫困对收入不平等的反应越迟钝;（3）1998年是我国农村反贫困性质发生改变的拐点。文章建议,今后农村反贫困政策的重点应从以促进收入增长的开发式扶贫向以改善收入分配为重点的社会保护式扶贫政策转变。     

收入增长和收入分配对城市减贫的影响

本文基于对贫困的分解,运用贫困弹性的动态特征,选取《中国统计年鉴》相关年份城市住户分组数据,深入分析收入增长和收入分配因素对中国1991-2009年间城市绝对贫困和相对贫困的影响。结果表明:(1)高速的经济增长对我国城市绝对贫困率下降起决定性作用,但收入分配恶化对城市相对贫困率上升有显著影响。(2)收入水平越高,则收入因素对城市减贫的促进作用越强,且分配因素所引起的贫困变动越大;收入分配越不平等,则收入因素对城市减贫的促进作用越弱,且分配因素所引起的贫困变动越小。因此,我国今后的城市减贫,应在继续保持经济较快增长的同时,以改善收入分配不平等为重点。     

中国农村居民收入增长和分配与贫困减少——兼论农村内部收入不平等

文章采用模型分析和基尼系数分解方法,基于2000年以来分省的农村居民收入增长和分配及贫困减少数据,分析我国农村居民收入增长和分配的减贫效应,并探讨农村内部收入不平等状况及来源。发现2000年以来我国农村居民收入增长依然对农村贫困减少发挥着显著的促进作用,但是收入分配的恶化会部分抵消收入增长的减贫作用;农村内部收入不平等程度明显高于城镇,工资性收入是农村内部收入不平等的主要影响因素,家庭经营收入次之,财产性收入和转移性收入对收入不平等的贡献率则相对较低。     

经济增长、收入分配对农村贫困变动的影响

文章利用了基于Lorenz曲线进行贫困测度及其分解的方法,实证研究了1985～2003年中国农村的贫困变动,以及经济增长和收入分配对贫困变动的影响.结果表明,经济增长使农村居民收入增加,大幅度减少了贫困,但农村居民的收入差距逐渐拉大,收入不平等加剧部分地抵消了经济增长的减贫成效.     

收入增长与不平等对我国贫困的影响

本文运用两组家计调查数据,采用夏普里(Shaley)分解法实证分析了20世纪90年代收入增长和收入分配的变化在我国贫困变动中的作用,并特别考虑了不同贫困线、贫困指标及等价规模对实证结果的影响。分析结果表明,90年代前半期农村减贫的成功主要归因于收入的增长和不平等的下降。在90年代后半期,农村和城市都经历了不平等的快速上升和收入的缓慢增长。因此,这段时间减贫的速度下降,甚至贫困有所增加。     

中国金融发展水平与居民收入分配的实证分析

本文利用1978-2003年的时序数据对我国金融发展与全国、城镇、农村以及城乡居民收入分配的关系进行实证探讨。研究表明:(1)我国金融发展与全国、农村以及城乡居民收入分配之间存在单向因果关系,但与城镇居民收入分配之间的因果关系不显著;(2)我国金融发展显著扩大了全国、农村以及城乡居民收入不平等程度,这与我国金融发展滞后密切相关;(3)金融发展与全国居民收入分配差距的实证结果具有鲁棒性,金融发展显著且稳定地扩大全国居民收入分配差距。本文研究结论对我国收入分配政策以及宏观金融政策的制定与调整有借鉴意义。     

城镇贫困与综合性反贫困政策框架

９０年代以后,中国的城镇贫困率呈现上升趋势,近期还有进一步恶化的趋势。其原因是：人均收入的增长远远落后于人均ＧＤＰ的增长;财政体系的不平等分配效应;住房市场改革所产生的不平等效应。因此,中国２１世纪的反贫困战略应当进行重新调整,除了收入贫困之外,应当更加关注人类贫困和知识贫困问题;同时,其反贫困政策应当是一个包括就业政策、财政政策、货币政策、区域发展政策在内的一揽子宏观政策体系。     

经济增长、收入分配的减贫效应探析——以新疆为例

运用FGT贫困指数,以新疆为例,基于Lorenz曲线对农村贫困变动进行测算。结果表明,经济增长具有明显的减贫作用,而收入分配不平等加剧则部分地抵消了经济增长的减贫作用。     

林业重点工程对样本农户收入不平等影响的分解与分析

本文采用15个案例县的1995—2006年3 096个样本数据分析林业重点工程对农民收入不平等及其影响程度的作用机理。研究结果显示:(1)在1995—2006年的12年间,样本农户的收入结构发生了重大变化,林业重点工程补贴收入提高了8.03个百分点;(2)林业重点工程补贴收入对样本农户收入的基尼系数的贡献呈现上升态势,从1995年的0.330 7%上升到2006年的3.794 1%;(3)林业工程收入格局与国家工程区域规划有密切关系,工程政策的影响更为显著。因此,适当调整林业重点工程政策可以更好地实现农村扶贫的目标。     

税收竞争、资本外流与投资环境改善——经济增长与收入公平分配并行路径研究

税收竞争和资本外流风险导致辖区政府追求高增长、不分配(低税)政策,但是,良好的投资环境可以在较高税负的前提下吸引住资本,既使经济增长,又使收入公平分配。本文在一个非合作开放经济框架中构建的理论模型表明:(1)资本税负越重,资本外流越严重;(2)如果投资环境改善,资本流入且促进经济增长,工人依附资本取得劳动报酬并在一定程度上抑制收入不平等;如果投资环境恶化,资本进一步流出至外地获取收入并使本辖区经济增长减速,工人失去资本依赖且无法取得收入,在一定程度上扩大了收入不平等。联立方程计量分析验证了理论命题。本文的政策建议是,保持对资本所得的有效税负,改善投资环境,形成经济增长与收入公平分配并行的路径。     

POVERTY AND INCOME INEQUALITY IN LATIN AMERICA DURING THE 1980s

On average, poverty and income inequality increased in Latin America during the 1980s. Forty-six percent of the increase in poverty took place in the cities of Brazil alone, though part of this reflects the migration of poor rural inhabitants to urban areas. There is strong evidence that both income inequality and poverty mirrored the economic cycle, rising during recession and falling during recovery. Economies that grew (e.g. Colombia, Costa Rica) performed better with respect to poverty and income inequality than those that stagnated. In particular, countries that failed to stabilize effectively (e.g. Brazil, Peru) experienced substantial increases in poverty. Educational attainment has the greatest correlation with both income inequality and the probability of being poor. From a policy standpoint, there is a clear association between the provision of education, lessening of income inequality, and poverty reduction.     

THE EFFECT ON POVERTY STATUS IN ISRAEL OF CONSIDERING WEALTH AND VARIABILITY OF INCOME

This paper assesses the effects of including wealth and the variability of income on the incidence of poverty and the degree of income inequality in Israel. A special survey, which includes data on the wealth and income of a national sample of Israeli families in 1963–64 and 1964–65, allows us to go beyond measures based on current income alone.
The first section reviews earlier studies of poverty in Israel. The next section looks at poverty and inequality in terms of current income, current wealth, and a combined measure of income and wealth. The combined measure is the Hansen-Weisbrod measure (HW), which equals income plus the annuity value of wealth, assuming all wealth is just consumed at the time of death. It is interesting that, in spite of the much higher wealth inequality than income inequality, the HW measure was slightly more equally distributed than income. This result occurred because the annuity component made up a low share of the total HW measure and the correlation between income and wealth was well under 1. Although overall inequality and poverty were similar for income and HW measures, the incidence of poverty by subgroup depended on the measure used.
The final section presents a dynamic view of poverty and inequality. Year-to-year changes in poverty were substantial. Because of the use of a relative poverty concept and the rise in real incomes, the real income poverty line rose by 15 percent between 1963 and 1964. Still, of those in income poverty in 1963, 37 percent managed to escape poverty in 1964. The paper shows how the degree to which poverty was stable or transitory varied substantially by age and country of origin.     

经济增长、收入差距与农村贫困

我国经济转型过程中同时发生的居民收入增长和收入差距扩大对农村贫困减缓具有不同的影响。本文在住户调查数据的基础上,讨论了不同时期经济增长和收入差距对于农村贫困减缓的作用大小,估算了不同年份经济增长和收入差距的贫困减缓弹性,并根据Shapley分解讨论了分项收入对贫困程度的影响以及分项收入不均等性的贫困减缓弹性。     

GROWTH, POVERTY, AND INEQUALITY IN LATIN AMERICA: A CAUSAL ANALYSIS, 1970–94

Taking advantage of consistent poverty and income inequality data for 12 Latin American countries between 1970 and 1994, we analyze the determinants of changes in the incidence of urban and rural poverty and in Gini coefficients over spells of years, stressing in particular the role of aggregate income growth. We find that income growth reduces urban and rural poverty but not inequality. We also find that income growth is more effective in reducing urban poverty if the levels of inequality and poverty are lower, and the levels of secondary education higher. We show that there is an asymmetry in the impact of growth on poverty and inequality, with recession having strong negative effects on both poverty and inequality. Since growth does not reduce inequality, economic cycles create ratchet effects on the level of inequality. However, post-structural adjustment growth is quite effective at reducing poverty, particularly if inequality is low.     

The impact of financial development,economic growth,income inequality on poverty: evidence from India

This paper examines the impact of financial development, economic growth and income inequality on poverty in India from 1970 to 2015 by employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure. The findings reveal a robust long-run relationship between financial development, economic growth, inequality and poverty. Results show that financial development and economic growth help in poverty reduction in India, whereas income inequality and inflation aggravate poverty. Empirical evidence of the Granger-causality test supports the presence of unidirectional causality from financial development and economic growth to poverty. Moreover, bidirectional causality exists between inequality and poverty. The present study provides evidence on which the policymakers may proceed with detailed investigation of how specific financial sector policies and interventions can be deployed as effective instruments for achieving favorable economic growth and income distribution. The study recommends that policies geared toward increasing financial development and economic growth should be adopted to reduce the high level of poverty and inequality currently prevailing in India.     

THE REDISTRIBUTIVE IMPACT OF ALTERNATIVE INCOME MAINTENANCE SCHEMES: A MICROSIMULATION STUDY USING SWISS DATA

Taking a benchmark scenario, the current situation in Switzerland, and using a microsimulation technique, we compare the effectiveness of various income maintenance schemes for reducing inequality and poverty. A full negative income tax allowance designed to eliminate poverty is shown to reduce income inequality most drastically. An integrated federal linear tax rate of 62 percent is required to make it viable. Aggregate work hours are reduced by approximately 10 percent and average disposable income falls by 9.3 percent under such circumstances. A participation income restricted to adults in employment and covering 50 percent of subsistence costs is however shown to result in an unambiguous social welfare improvement over the current situation in Switzerland.     

Growth,inequality, and poverty reduction in developing countries: Recent global evidence

The study presents comparative global evidence on the transformation of economic growth to poverty reduction in developing countries, with emphasis on the role of income inequality. The focus is on the period since the early-mid-1990s when growth in these countries as a group has been relatively strong, surpassing that of the advanced economies. Both regional and country-specific data are analyzed for the $1.25 and $2.50-level poverty headcount ratios using World Bank Povcalnet data. The study finds that on average income growth has been the major driving force behind both the declines and increases in poverty. The study, however, documents substantial regional and country differences that are masked by this ‘average’ dominant-growth story. While in the majority of countries, growth was the major factor behind falling or increasing poverty, inequality, nevertheless, played the crucial role in poverty behavior in a large number of countries. And, even in those countries where growth has been the main driver of poverty-reduction, further progress could have occurred under relatively favorable income distribution. For more efficient policymaking, therefore, idiosyncratic attributes of countries should be emphasized. In general, high initial levels of inequality limit the effectiveness of growth in reducing poverty while growing inequality increases poverty directly for a given level of growth. It would seem judicious, therefore, to accord special attention to reducing inequality in certain countries where income distribution is especially unfavorable. Unfortunately, the present study also points to the limited effects of growth and inequality-reducing policies in low-income countries.     

The Making of Pro‐Poor Growth

A system of three endogenous equations is used to estimate the determinants of poverty dynamics. The system incorporates: (i) the direct effect of growth and income inequality on poverty, (ii) the feedback effect of poverty on inequality and growth, and (iii) different channels through which economic policies can contribute to poverty reduction. Results suggest that countries tend to move towards one of two possible equilibria. The positive (virtuous) equilibrium is characterized by fast growth, decreasing inequality, and rapid poverty reduction. The negative (vicious) equilibrium involves slow (or even negative) growth, sharpening inequalities, and resilient poverty. The policy mix is critical in determining to which of the two equilibria a country converges.     

收入不平等与经济增长：移动的库兹涅茨曲线*——新时期收入分配改革的思路与意义

准确判断收入不平等对经济增长的影响，对于客观评价中国各个阶段的收入分配制度改革尤为重要。本文在统一增长理论的框架下引入收入不平等因素，构建了一个人口数量、不平等和经济增长同时内生的理论模型，并利用CGSS数据构造收入不平等指标，使用中国省际非平衡面板数据进行经验检验。研究发现：收入不平等与经济增长之间呈现倒U型关系。更重要的是，随着经济发展水平的提高，倒U型曲线将逐渐向左移动，即最优的收入不平等程度随着经济发展水平的提高而逐渐降低。这一发现意味着改革开放以来，中国各个时期的收入分配制度改革均是在特定历史条件下的最优选择。本文的结论具有深刻的政策含义：为了提高经济增长率，需要进一步巩固“脱贫攻坚”成果，逐渐加大收入分配调节力度，使收入分配制度改革紧跟经济发展的步伐，根据经济发展水平不断缩小收入不平等程度。