The demand for money in a small open economy: The case of Switzerland

The paper uses cointegration analysis to investigate the demand for money in Switzerland in the context of an open economy. It considers the general process of financial asset substitution and tests for the relevance of an exchange rate and a foreign interest rate variable in a conventional money demand equation. The results show that the variables entering into the demand for either monetary base or narrow money equation may not form a cointegrated system unless the exchange rate or foreign interest rate variable is included. This provides support to both the currency substitution and capital mobility hypotheses.     

The Information Contents of Aggregated Money Demand in the EMU

Estimates of aggregated and disaggregated demand-for-money functions in 7 EMU member states show that the aggregated function slightly outperforms the disaggregated functions in explaining the European demand for M3. The aggregated function appears to contain some additional information on money demand in The Netherlands and, to a lesser extent, in France. For the other countries investigated in this study information on aggregated European money demand does not add much to the explanation of demand for money in the individual countries.     

International comparisons of money demand

Many studies of the demand for money, covering a wide variety of economies, have demonstrated the importance of financial innovations and shifts in monetary policy regimes, but they have also illustrated the difficulty of measuring and assessing such changes. Because innovations and regime shifts have differed markedly across countries, international comparisons can help identify their effects. This paper reviews the literature on money demand comparisons, focusing primarily on industrial countries. It finds that innovations have had widespread effects, but also that the demand for money is not generally less stable now than it was before those changes occurred.     

Wealth and the demand for money: Empirical evidence for the Netherlands and Belgium

Summary This paper examines the impact of wealth on the demand for money in The Netherlands and Belgium. The empirical analysis reveals a substantial influence of wealth on the demand for money. For The Netherlands, incorporating wealth effects mitigates the volatility of the monetary picture. For Belgium this is not the case, indicating that interest and inflation rates are very important for understanding the monetary developments.We are indebted to Michel Dombrecht of De Nationale Bank van België for providing the data on wealth for Belgium. Helpful comments by Professors S.K. Kuipers and F.C. Palm are gratefully acknowledged.     

Scale variable specification in a money demand function for Malaysia

We investigate what scale variable is most appropriate in the money demand function for Malaysia. Candidates include income, consumption, disposable income, and domestic absorption and these are considered for simple sum M1 and M2 and for Divisia M1 and M2. Non-nested tests and other model selection criteria such as R² are used. The non-nested tests for the M1 aggregates are inconclusive but more support is given for income as the scale variable for the M2 aggregates, especially for Divisia M2. The other procedures also show that income is preferred for M2 and some support is also given for income for the M1 aggregates.     

Currency Substitution and Money Demand in Euroland

This paper tests the stability of the demand for money in the euro-area in the context of an open economy. A sample consisting of quarterly data covering the 1982:2–1999:3 period is considered. The main finding is that the U.S. dollar long-term interest rate plays a significant role in the European money demand relationship. This result holds for different combinations of variables forming the vector auto-regressive system and suggests that international monetary interdependency may be an important factor influencing the ECB monetary policy.This paper draws on an earlier version and was prepared while the author was at the Bank of Portugal (the usual disclaimer applies). It was presented at the 2003 Meeting of the Economic Modelling Network. The author acknowledges Luis Catela Nunes, Carlos Santos, Carlos Robalo Marques, Nuno Alves, and an anonymous referee for their helpful suggestions.     

The Stability of European Money Demand: An Investigation of M3H

The paper assesses the stability and predictive performance of a European money demand function as compared to national money demand functions. With respect to the explanatory accuracy, the national functions perform better than the aggregated function. Examination of the residuals of the national money demand equations indicates that currency substitution is not the major cause for the stability of the aggregated money demand function. The aggregate relation mainly seems to reflect German money demand. This conclusion is supported by the instability of aggregated money demand resulting from the exclusion of Germany from the aggregate.     

中小企业融资困难研究与出路探讨

本文着重围绕着中小企业融资难的问题展开讨论 ,并为解决中小企业 ,特别是就高新技术中小企业的融资出路问题 ,提出了 :一 ,制定、健全法律法规、政策扶植政策、建立银行合理的金融体系的建议 ;二 ,建议设立适应于帮助中小企业发展的中小企业管理局或部门 ,延伸到从中央到地方、到社区设立三级管理网络及担保体系 ,并实施贷款担保等功能。最后为中小企业融资 ,对比国外的经验 ,探讨了一些融资方法     

假币没收之若干法律问题反思

在对待非恶意的假币持有人时,"没收"这一处理方式具有不合理性。在此情形下,对假币之没收有间接侵犯公民财产权之嫌。作为假币的受害人,普通民众有权要求国家给予适当的补偿。而国家能够对假币进行补偿也可以体现其对公民财产权之尊重,同时也是其责任的应有之担当。     

The demand for money in the Netherlands revisited

Summary This article presents an analysis of demand for money in The Netherlands, both at the aggregate level and the sectoral level. Special attention is devoted to the distinction between short and long run demand. Deviations of the long-run relationships are modelled by means of the error correction mechanism. The elasticities for aggregate demand are consistent with the findings for the money demand by the household and business sectors and correspond reasonably well with those derived from other studies. The estimated equations describe the rise in theM1- andM2-ratio in the 1980s in a satisfactory way, although forM2 from 1987 onwards there is a discrepancy between actual and fitted values. The disaggregated analysis shows that the behaviour of the business sector seems to be responsible for this.The authors are indebted to Professor S.K. Kuipers for his comments on an earlier draft.     

The behavior of money demand in the Chinese hyperinflation

In this paper I study the behavior of money demand during the episode of hyperinflation that occurred in China after World War II. I consider two popular and competing money demand specifications – the log–log and the semi-log – and show that the log–log performs better than the semi-log in its ability to track the behavior of the money demand. The choice between the two specifications is of great importance, as it implies that welfare cost estimates are very different for hyperinflation. The findings also contribute to the understanding of Cagan’s paradox and the failure of Cagan inflationary finance models. The paradox might be attributable to the popular semi-log schedule for money demand, and the log–log schedule might be an appropriate form for the analysis of hyperinflation.     

我国热钱流入的影响因素分析

本文在国际学术界关于国际资本流动影响因素的现有理论基础上,构建了我国热钱流入影响因素的模型,对利率、汇率、通货膨胀率、经济增长等因素对我国热钱流动的影响进行了计量分析,并提出相关政策建议。     

The determinants of the demand of the demand for public education in China

我国关于公共产品的研究集中在供给方面,对公共产品需求的研究还相对较少.本文作者从需求角度,通过可行的计量分析,利用横截面数据,研究了人均教育支出与相关因素之间的关系.     

The utility of a common coinage: Currency unions and the integration of money markets in late Medieval Central Europe

This paper employs a new method and dataset to estimate the effect of currency unions on the integration of financial markets in late Medieval Central Europe. The analysis reveals that membership in a union was significantly correlated with well-integrated markets. We also examine whether currency unions were endogenous. Our results indicate that where unions were established, markets had been significantly better integrated already in the preceding period. In addition, we show that currency unions created by autonomous merchant towns were better integrated than unions implemented by territorial rulers. The overall implication is that monetary diversity was a corollary of weakly integrated markets in late Medieval Central Europe.     

Endogenous credit-card acceptance in a model of precautionary demand for money

A credit-card acceptance decision by retailers is embedded intoa simple model of precautionary demand for money. The modelgives a new explanation for how the use of credit-cards candiffer so widely across countries. Retailers’ propensityto accept cards reduces the need for buyers to hold cash asthe chance of a stock-out (of cash) is reduced. When retailersmake their decision with respect to credit-card acceptance theydo not take into account the effect that decision has on othersellers. This externality generates multiple equilibria oversome portions of the parameter space.     

The stability of German money demand: Tests of the cointegration relation

The Stability of German Money Demand: Tests of the Cointegration Relation. — In this study, two money demand functions are specified in single equation error correction as well as triangular error correction form involving real M1 (M3), real GNP, a short-and a long-term interest rate. Using various tests, it is shown that there may be a cointegration relation even after the German Monetary Union (GMU) was established in 1990. But the long-run coefficients of GNP and the interest rate probably have a structural break in 1973, when the Bundesbank changed its monetary regime, and in 1990, when the GMU was formed. The tests support weak exogeneity of real GNP and the interest rate.     

A transaction theory of the demand for money

Zusammenfassung Eine Transaktionstheorie der Geldnachfrage. — In diesem Aufsatz wird versucht, die Keynessche Transaktions- und Spekulationsnachfrage nach Geld in eine einzige Transaktionsnachfrage nach Geld unter Unsicherheit zu fassen. Es wird gezeigt, da\ die Spekulationsnachfrage nicht unabh?ngig von der Transaktionsnachfrage ist und folglich nicht getrennt behandelt werden darf. Die Kosten für die Kassenhaltung werden in Liquidit?ts-, Alternativ- und Transaktionskosten aufgeschlüsselt. Liquidit?tskosten entstehen durch ungenügende Planung der für laufende Ausgaben bestimmten Kassenhaltung. Alternativkosten entsprechen der verlorengegangenen Rendite auf Kassenbest?nde. Transaktionskosten resultieren aus dem Konvertieren von nichtliquiden Mitteln in liquide (oder umgekehrt). Wenn Einkommen und Ausgaben stochastischen St?rungen ausgesetzt werden, zeigt sich, da\ sowohl aktive (Transaktions-) als auch passive (Spekulations-) Kassenbest?nde nachgefragt werden. Au\erdem wird dargestellt, da\ eine durch unerwartete Einnahmen oder Ausgaben bewirkte Erh?hung der Varianz der Kassenbest?nde (Risiko) zwar zuerst zu gr?\eren Kassenbest?nden führt, diese sich aber verringern, nachdem das Risiko einen bestimmten Schwellenwert erreicht hat. Weiterhin wird gezeigt, da\ 1. ?risk aversion? weder eine notwendige noch hinreichende Bedingung für die Existenz passiver Kassenbest?nde darstellt; 2. beobachtete durchschnittliche Kassenbest?nde eine ?biased? Sch?tzung der optimalen Kassenbest?nde sind und 3. in einem bestimmten Bereich der Kassenbest?nde wegen der Transaktionskosten keine Anpassung aufgrund einer Risiko- oder Zinssatz?nderung vorgenommen wird.

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Résumé Une théorie de transaction de la demande de monnaie. — L’article essaye de réconcilier la demande d:ncaisses de transactions et, aussi de l’origine keynésienne, la demande d:ncaisses de spéculation en formulant seulement une demande d:ncaisses de transactions en présence de l’incertitude. Il est montré que la demande d’ncaisses de spéculation n’est pas indépendante de la demande d’ncaisses de transactions et qu’il n’est pas justifié de séparer ces deux formes de demande. Trois types de co?ts résultants de la détention de monnaie sont distingués: les co?ts de liquidité, les co?ts d’opportunité et les co?ts de transaction. Les co?ts de liquidité résultent des encaisses pas bien projetées en vue des dépenses courantes. Le co?t d’opportunité est le rendement renoncé des encaisses. Les co?ts de transaction résultent des conversions des actifs en l’encaisse, ou vice versa. Si le revenu et les dépenses sont soumis aux perturbations aléatoires, il est montré qu’il y a une demande d’encaisses actives (de transactions) et une demande d’ncaisses oisives (de spéculation). En outre, il est dérivé que, à la suite d’une augmentation de la variance des encaisses à cause des revenus et dépenses pas projetés, l’on détient d’abord des encaisses de plus en plus grande jusqu’au point au delà les risques grandissent beaucoup et exigent la détention des encaisses plus petites. L’auteur conclut (1) que l’aversion contre les risques n:st pas une condition ni nécessaire ni suffisante pour l:xistence des encaisses oisives; (2) que les encaisses moyennes observées sont des estimations des encaisses optimales caractérisées d’un biais; (3) qu’il n’y a pas, sur un certain rang d:ncaisses, des ajustements à la suite des variations du risque ou de l’intérêt à cause des co?ts de transaction.

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Resumen Una teoria de transacci?n para la demanda por dinero. — El présente trabajo trata de reconciliar la demanda por dinero especulativa y de transacci?n de Keynes con una demanda por dinero ?nica de transacci?n bajo condiciones de incertidumbre. Se muestra que la demanda por dinero especulativa no es independiente de la demanda por dinero de transacción y, que por lo tanto, no es correcto tratar estas dos demandas en forma separada. Se distinguen tres tipos de costos para mantener dinero: costo de liquidez, costo de oportunidad y costo de transacción. Costo de liquidez es aquél en que se incurre por no tener un plan de pagos al contado adecuado para cubrir los desembolsos corrientes. Costo de oportunidad es el rédito perdido por la mantencion de dinero en caja. Costos de transacci⤵ son costoc envueltos en la conversión de activos a dinero en caja y vice versa. Si el ingreso y los pagos están sujetos a perturbaciones estoc⟹ticas, se demuestra que habrá una demanda tanto para activos (transacción) como para dinero en caja ocioso (especulativa). Además se demuestra que en la medida en que la varianza del dinero en caja (riesgo) crece como resultado de ingresos o gastos no planeados, esto lleva primero a mantener dinero en caja en mayores cantidades, pero una vez que el riesgo crece, se mantienen a partir de cierto punto menores cantidades de dinero en caja. Ademàs se demuestra que (1) la aversión por el riesgo no es una condición necesaria ni suficiente para la existencia de dinero en caja ocioso; (2) los promedios observados de dinero en caja son estimaciones sesgadas de las cantidades óptimas de dinero en caja y (3) que a partir de cierto límite de cantidades de dinero en caja no se harán ajustes ni para cambios en los riesgos, ni para cambios en las tasas de interés como consecuencia de costos de transacción.