Oligopsonistic Intermediate Input and Patterns of Trade *

We examine the validities of traditional trade theorems and patterns of trade for an economy with an oligopsonistic intermediate input. Specifically, the model consists of two final goods. one intermediate good, and two primary factors. One final good and the intermediate good are produced using primary factors, capital and labor. The second final good is produced using the intermediate good and labor. All markets operate under perfect competition except the intermediate good market, which is oligopsonistic. This model reflects the real world phenomena of oligopsony power excerted by some industries (e.g., the food processing industry) in the intermediate good purchases. Our analysis shows that some of the traditional trade theorems and H.O trade pattern may be overturned if the factor intensity of the competitive sector lies between those of oligopsony and intermediate good sectors. [F12]     

Intra- and inter-firm US trade

Bivariate Tobit gravity regressions using 2000–2007 US trade data show that US-based firms take advantage of positive forces (e.g., economic freedom) operating in foreign markets more through affiliates than third parties. Likewise, transactions with affiliates are deterred a lot more by negative forces (e.g., distance). Additionally, trade flows are higher (lower) with non-OECD (OECD) countries that are more politically free. Decompositions of the Tobit effects and the predicted-to-actual trade ratios indicate a two-pronged strategy for policymakers: develop targeted policies to specific hurdles to intra-firm trade and work aggressively on increasing market access for US exports.     

The law of one price revisited: How do goods market frictions generate large and volatile price deviations?

This paper analyzes the role of goods market frictions in accounting for the large and volatile deviations from the Law of One Price (LOP) in a framework of flexible prices. We draw a distinction between the goods market frictions that are required to consume tradable goods (e.g., distribution costs) and those that are necessary for international transactions (e.g., trade costs). We find that trade costs generate LOP deviations by introducing a no-arbitrage band, while distribution costs cause the price to deviate from the LOP by affecting the probability that trade will occur, given the band. We then conduct a Monte Carlo simulation to show that real exchange rate volatility is positively associated with trade costs, but negatively related to distribution costs. This effect depends on the interplay of trade costs and distribution costs, as they work in opposite directions when creating arbitrage opportunities.     

Economic openness and technical efficiency: A case study of Chinese manufacturing industries

This paper presents a study of the technical efficiency of industries in a transitional economy: China. Using data for 28 manufacturing industries across 29 provinces and the Data Envelopment Analysis approach, the technical efficiency of each industry is measured and compared across regions and provinces. The determinants of differential technical efficiency performance are analysed, with a particular focus on the impact of trade orientation and foreign investment. Trade openness is found generally to have a positive effect on technical efficiency.     

产业内贸易对我国制造业自主创新能力影响的实证研究

从产业内贸易的形成机理出发,利用1997—2010年我国29个制造业的相关数据,利用面板数据变截距模型分析了我国制造业整体的产业内贸易对其自主创新能力的影响,利用面板数据变系数模型分析了29个制造业行业的产业内贸易对其自主创新产出的间接影响效应和直接影响效应。实证结果表明:不同的制造业行业的产业内贸易对其自主创新能力的影响有所差异;在自主创新能力高的制造业行业中,产业内贸易对其自主创新的影响比较显著;在自主创新能力中等的制造业行业中,除了医药制造业、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业的产业内贸易对其自主创新能力有显著影响外,其他制造业行业的该影响均不显著。     

Re-examining the exchange rate pass-through into import prices using non-linear estimation techniques: Threshold cointegration

We document a significant threshold cointegrating relationship among effective nominal exchange rates and import prices. Using quarterly data for five industries of 16 OECD countries, we find that the degree of pass-through improves dramatically from the 50% average documented in the literature once threshold effects are recognized. The results of our threshold cointegration model show that import prices respond faster and by a larger extent to nominal exchange rate shocks than is the case for more conventional models. These findings give empirical support to the hypothesis that an equilibrium rate of pass-through exists (e.g. [Bacchetta, P., & Van Wincoop, E. (2005). A Theory of the currency denomination of international trade, Journal of International Economics 67, 295–319; Devereux, M., Engel, C., & Storgaard, P. (2004). Endogenous exchange rate pass-through when nominal prices are set in advance, Journal of International Economics 63(2), 263–291]).     

理论与实证视角的TBT对进口国经济效应解析

技术性贸易壁垒是当前国际贸易领域一项重要的非关税壁垒措施。关于技术性贸易壁垒对于进出口国的效应分析,可以将其分为短期效应和长期效应两个方面:在短期内技术性贸易壁垒确实能够增加进口国的福利,而如果进口国旨在用这一措施保护国内产业,则长期来看福利效益将难以实现。     

Government industrial policy for a healthy world economy

The Japanese concept of “industrial policy” is the subject of this presentation. The central role of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry in the formulation of industrial policy for Japan over the past 35 years is reviewed. Several strategic phases are identified: 1945–1952, reconstruction of the economy; 1952–1960, comparative advantage strategy in capital-intensive industries; 1960–1973, transition to an open economy; 1973 to present, positive support policy for promising industries, e.g., subsidies for high-tech sectors and adjustive policy for declining industries (e.g., disposing of excess capacity in the textile sector). The advantages of National industrial policies for the world economy are indicated.     

FTA中TBT条款对中国全球价值链攀升的影响研究

基于2000—2014年中国签订的自由贸易协定（FTA）中技术性贸易壁垒（TBT）条款文本,使用自然语言文本处理法量化了中国各行业在FTA中TBT条款的合作水平,实证研究FTA中TBT条款对中国各行业全球价值链位置的影响。实证结果表明,FTA中TBT条款分别从降低贸易成本、促进技术创新、提高制度质量三个路径促进了中国各行业在全球价值链中的攀升。进一步分析发现,FTA中TBT条款对制造业和其他行业全球价值链攀升的促进作用明显,对中国服务业全球价值链攀升的影响不显著;相对于高技术制造业,低技术制造业的全球价值链攀升更容易受FTA中TBT条款的影响。中国政府应该更加积极地参与FTA中与贸易伙伴国的高水平TBT条款的谈判协商,充分发挥其对各行业全球价值链攀升的促进作用,同时重点关注对FTA中TBT条款敏感度较高的行业。     

One‐off export events

Isolated single‐month, one‐off export transactions (observed once in a 49‐month window) turn out to be the dominant spell length in granular firm–product–destination trade data. Moreover, on average, for an export‐active firm, such one‐off events generate a significant part of foreign sales. These patterns cannot be explained by the lumpiness of trade (e.g., seasonal shipments), nor do they sit well with available trade models. To reconcile theory with the data, we introduce passive (i.e., unsolicited buyer‐side driven) exporting in addition to proactive exporting. Our empirical investigation establishes novel stylized facts on firm and destination characteristics associated with one‐off exporting.     

全球化与20世纪90年代以来东亚制造业的转移和重组

本文的目的是:(1)讨论当存在产业内贸易时,三个通常用来衡量比较优势和竞争力的指标之间的关系;(2)检验20世纪90年代以来,东亚几个经济体中制造业活动的转移和重组。结果显示,制造业活动已经从日本、韩国和台湾地区转移到了中国。对于低技术劳动密集的产业(例如,SITC82,83,84和85),这种转移是基于比较优势,而产生了产业间贸易。然而,对于更复杂的技术密集产品(例如:SITC72和SITC87),生产过程已被分成很多模块,并在不同的国家进行生产。这种制造方式的重组是基于规模经济效应,而产生了产业内贸易。     

Impact of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade between US and Hong Kong

The impact of exchange rate uncertainty on trade flows is still the center of attention in international economics. A few studies that have looked at this effect in Hong Kong have used either aggregate data between Hong Kong and the rest of the world or between Hong Kong and several of her major trading partners. They have been unable to locate any significant effect. Suspecting that existing studies could suffer from aggregation bias, we concentrate on the trade between Hong Kong and the US and disaggregate their trade flows further by commodity. Out of 140 Hong Kong importing industries and 104 exporting industries considered, we find short-run effects in the majority of the industries. The short-run effects translated into the long run in 81 of Hong Kong import industries and 51 of her export industries, a finding that contradicts previous research.     

Additive versus multiplicative trade costs and the gains from trade liberalizations

This paper addresses welfare effects from trade liberalization in a Melitz ( 2003 ) heterogeneous‐firms trade model including the empirically important per‐unit (i.e., additive) trade costs in addition to the conventional iceberg (i.e., multiplicative) and fixed trade costs. The novel contribution of the paper is the result that the welfare gain for a given increase in trade openness is higher for reductions in per‐unit (additive) trade costs than for reductions in iceberg (multiplicative) trade costs. The ranking derives from differences in intra‐industry reallocations and, in particular, from dissimilar impacts on the number of exporters (i.e., the extensive margin of trade).     

技术贸易壁垒与产业发展

许多发达国家包括一些发展中国家越来越重视利用技术贸易壁垒保护本国产业。本文运用新经济地理学对产业集聚、产业发展的有关研究方法，分析技术贸易壁垒对推动本国产业发展的作用。技术贸易壁垒影响增加出口国企业的生产成本，从而对厂商的投资决策构成影响，最终导致本国与贸易伙伴国相关产业发展的不平衡。     

Trade and Domestic Policy Linkage in International Agreements*

A central question in discussions of integrating negotiations over domestic policy (e.g., environmental policy or labor standards) into traditional trade agreements is the degree to which the trade policy and domestic policy provisions of an agreement should be explicitly linked. For example, should the World Trade Organization enforce domestic policy obligations with the threat of the suspension of trade concessions? This article considers the conditions under which linking trade and domestic policy agreements within a self‐enforcing agreement is beneficial, and argues that the benefits of such policy linkage may be lower than is commonly thought.     

Third-country exchange rate volatility and Japanese–US trade: evidence from industry-level data

As an important economic power globally as well as within Asia, Japan is susceptible to fluctuations in the yen versus both the dollar and its neighbours’ currencies. The resulting risk, from both sources, might, therefore, have important effects on Japanese trade. This study incorporates third-country exchange rate volatility (both yen-renminbi and dollar-renminbi) into a reduced form trade model for industry trade between the US and Japan. As was the case with a previous study that did not include these effects, our cointegration analysis finds that most industries are unaffected by risk. Third-country effects are, however, significant in a number of cases. Interestingly, a large share of US industries find that exports increase due to third-country risk, suggesting that this volatility is encouraging traders to reorient their trade markets by substitution.     

Development through synergistic reforms

For many less developed countries production of high quality output is a precondition for firms to become exporters. Institutional deficiencies that raise costs of high quality production therefore limit the positive impact that trade facilitation can have on income. Consequently, institutional reforms that reduce costs of high quality production and trade reform have synergistic effects. In contrast, institutional reforms that reduce costs of low quality production (e.g., reforms that disproportionately benefit small businesses) interfere with the impact of trade reform. We obtain these results in a heterogeneous firm model that displays standard “industry rationalization” responses to reduced trade costs.     

Development through synergistic reforms

For many less developed countries production of high quality output is a precondition for firms to become exporters. Institutional deficiencies that raise costs of high quality production therefore limit the positive impact that trade facilitation can have on income. Consequently, institutional reforms that reduce costs of high quality production and trade reform have synergistic effects. In contrast, institutional reforms that reduce costs of low quality production (e.g., reforms that disproportionately benefit small businesses) interfere with the impact of trade reform. We obtain these results in a heterogeneous firm model that displays standard “industry rationalization” responses to reduced trade costs.     

Malaysia-Japan Commodity Trade and Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes

Asymmetry analysis is a new norm in applied research and the link between the trade balance and the exchange rate is no exception. In this paper we investigate the asymmetric response of the trade balance of each of the 60 industries that trade between Malaysia and Japan. We find short-run asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance of 50 industries (including the two largest industries), short-run adjustment asymmetry in 47 industries, and short-run impact asymmetry in 30 industries. However, short-run asymmetric effects lasted into the long run only in limited number of industries. Results are industry-specific at best.     

Tariff effects on MNC decisions to engage in intra-firm and arm's-length trade

Abstract .  Using confidential firm-level data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on activities of U.S. multinational corporations (MNCs) and their Canadian affiliates, we study the dramatic growth of intra-firm and arm's-length U.S.-Canada trade over the 198495 period. We find that decisions to engage in intra-firm and arm's-length trade are essentially unrelated to tariff and transport cost reductions over this sample period. Thus, we find that the increase in trade occurred almost entirely on the  intensive  rather than the  extensive  margin. This is consistent with case study evidence in Keane and Feinberg (2006), where MNC executives consistently indicate that the modest tariff reductions of the 198495 period were not sufficient to justify fixed costs of overhauling international supply chains. Our results have important implications for recent influential models of international trade that rely on sensitivity of intra-firm trade to tariffs at the  extensive  margin to explain how small tariff declines could have led to the explosion of intra-firm trade since the 1980s. We also find that initial conditions (i.e., 1983 tariffs) are uncorrelated with whether firms engaged in intra-firm or arm's-length trade activity at the start of the sample period. This result is surprising as it implies that firms/industries with a greater propensity to engage in trade were not, in general, successful at lobbying for more favourable tariff treatment.