The CBO's policy analysis: An unquestionable misuse of a questionable theory

The analyses of fiscal and monetary policies that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) provides Congress tend to be biased, encouraging the use of activist stabilization policies. The CBO's virtual neglect of economic uncertainties and its emphasis on very short time horizons make active policies appear much more attractive than its own model implies. Moreover, the CBO 's adoption of the macroeconometric approach fundamentally biases its analyses. Macroeconometric models do not remain invariant to changes in policy rules and are mute on the implications of alternative policies for efficiency and income distribution. The rational expectations equilibrium approach overcomes these difficulties and implies that less activist and less inflationary policies are desirable.     

In Old Chicago: Simons,Friedman, and the Development of Monetary‐Policy Rules

This paper examines the different policy rules proposed by Henry Simons, who, beginning in the mid‐1930s, advocated a price‐level stabilization rule, and by Milton Friedman, who, beginning in the late‐1950s, advocated a rule that targeted a constant growth rate of the money supply. Although both rules shared the objective of eliminating the policy uncertainty emanating from discretion, they differed because of the different views of Simons and Friedman about the stability of secular relationships. Simons’ rule relates to modern rules that emphasize the pursuit of price stability as representing optimal monetary policy.     

数量规则还是利率规则？——我国转型时期量价混合型货币规则的理论基础

本文对我国货币政策转型时期兼顾数量和价格的货币政策调控实践进行了深入的分析。在货币数量论和货币效用模型的基础上,从理论上阐明了货币数量规则与利率价格规则的等价关系,并构建了符合中国货币政策实践的数量与价格混合型货币政策规则。这对于更好地理解我国货币政策转型时期的量价混合型货币政策操作具有重要的理论和现实意义。相关推论表明,正是由于数量和价格混合型货币规则,在利率低于均衡水平的情形下,中国的货币增速并未引发恶性通胀;修正的物价稳定泰勒原理表明,利率调整幅度小于通胀变化仍能够实现物价稳定。对中国的经验分析支持了理论和推论结果。在利率市场化基本完成和流动性格局逆转的当下,货币政策价格调控方式转型的必要性和迫切性日益上升,转型的条件日趋成熟。     

Optimal monetary policy with imperfect common knowledge

This paper determines optimal nominal demand policy in a flexible price economy in which firms pay limited attention to aggregate variables. Firms’ inattentiveness gives rise to idiosyncratic information errors and imperfect common knowledge about the shocks hitting the economy. This is shown to have strong implications for optimal nominal demand policy. In particular, if firms’ prices are strategic complements and economic shocks display little persistence, monetary policy has strong real effects, making it optimal to stabilize the output gap. Weak complementarities or sufficient shock persistence, however, cause price level stabilization to become increasingly optimal. With persistent shocks, optimal monetary policy shifts from output gap stabilization in initial periods following the shock to price level stabilization in later periods, potentially rationalizing the medium-term approach to price stability adopted by some central banks.     

中国房地产价格波动与货币政策：一个实证研究

本文采用家庭还款额的支付性指数HAI来测算中国房地产价格的合理性,发现中国房地产市场自1998年以来就存在严重的泡沫;通过对央行货币政策操作目标与房地产价格波动做回归分析,得出央行货币政策对房地产价格波动作出显著响应;建立结构向量自回归模型研究房地产价格波动在给定货币政策准则下对产出缺口和价格稳定的）中击,得出近年来房地产价格波动对价格稳定冲击比较大,对产出冲击比较小的结论;最后提出货币当局应针对房地产价格波动制定最优货币政策准则。     

数量规则还是利率规则？——我国转型时期量价混合型货币规则的理论基础

本文对我国货币政策转型时期兼顾数量和价格的货币政策调控实践进行了深入的分析。在货币数量论和货币效用模型的基础上,从理论上阐明了货币数量规则与利率价格规则的等价关系,并构建了符合中国货币政策实践的数量与价格混合型货币政策规则。这对于更好地理解我国货币政策转型时期的量价混合型货币政策操作具有重要的理论和现实意义。相关推论表明,正是由于数量和价格混合型货币规则,在利率低于均衡水平的情形下,中国的货币增速并未引发恶性通胀;修正的物价稳定泰勒原理表明,利率调整幅度小于通胀变化仍能够实现物价稳定。对中国的经验分析支持了理论和推论结果。在利率市场化基本完成和流动性格局逆转的当下,货币政策价格调控方式转型的必要性和迫切性日益上升,转型的条件日趋成熟。     

The role of expectations in stabilization policy

This paper develops and tests a theory of the process by which private agents in an economy form expectations about government policy. Agents form and update their beliefs about the true state of government policy in a Bayesian fashion. The ‘credibility’ of a policy is defined to be the subjective probability that the government is pursuing a 'reform' policy rule. The ‘credibility’ of a reform of monetary or exchange rate policies is a function of the parameters of both monetary and fiscal policies. The theory is applied to the Chilean and Argentine exchange reforms of the late 1970's.     

What's different about banks?

Negotiable certificates of deposit (CD's) trade in the capital market in competition with other securities like commercial paper and bankers' acceptances. If CD's must pay lenders competitive monetary interest, the reserve tax on CD's is borne by bank borrowers. Viability of the tax means there must be something special about bank loans that makes some borrowers willing to pay higher interest rates than those on other securities of equivalent risk. Moreover, there must be something special about banks that prevents other intermediaries from competing to assure that it never pays to finance loans with CD's.     

A duopoly theory of government money production: The 1930s and 1940s

During the 1930s and 1940s, the Treasury and Fed possessed significant monetary powers. To explain the interaction of these agencies during this period, I develop a theory of money production which assumes each party is interested in increasing the seigniorage associated with their production. The theory implies that the two agencies will engage in specific forms of cooperation. An examination of monetary policy procedures in the 1930s and 1940s indicates that the cooperation view of the Fed and Treasury relationship has more explanatory power than traditional views.     

Deconstructing credibility: The breaking of monetary policy rules in Brazil

Can political interference deconstruct credibility that was hardly-earned through successful stabilization policy? We analyze the recent switch in the conduct of monetary policy by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB). Brazil is the largest Emerging Market Economy to formally target inflation, having adopted the Inflation Targeting (IT) regime in 1999. In the early years of IT, the BCB engaged in constructing credibility with price setting agents and succeeded to anchor inflation expectations to its target even under adverse conditions such as exchange rate crises. We argue that this effort to maintain IT rules-based policy ended in 2011, as a new country president and BCB board came to power. We then discuss the consequences of this credibility loss. Our main results can be summarized as follows: (i) we provide strong empirical evidence of the BCB’s shift toward looser, discretionary policy after 2011; (ii) preliminary evidence suggests that this shift has affected agents’ inflation expectations generating social and economic costs.     

The “price puzzle” reconsidered

A large literature has employed structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models to investigate the empirical effects of U.S. monetary policy. Many of these models regularly produce a “price puzzle”—a rise in the aggregate price level in response to a contractionary innovation to monetary policy—unless commodity prices are included. Conventional wisdom maintains that commodity prices resolve the price puzzle because they contain information that helps the Federal Reserve forecast inflation. I examine a number of plausible alternative indicator variables and find little correlation between an ability to forecast inflation and an ability to resolve the price puzzle. Additionally, a sub-sample investigation reveals that evidence of a price puzzle is associated primarily with the 1959-1979 sample period, and that most indicators—including commodity prices—cannot resolve the puzzle over this period.     

Monetary policy and aggregate volatility

Discretionary conduct of monetary stabilization policy can increase real and nominal aggregate volatility by arbitrary amounts when firms pay limited attention to aggregate shocks. A conservative central banker with stronger preference for price stability eliminates the commitment problem, thereby reduces output and price volatility and gives rise to a policy-induced ‘Great Moderation’. Increased focus on price stability facilitates firms’ information processing and aligns their expectations better with policy decisions. This ‘coordination effect’ reduces aggregate real and nominal volatility. Consistent with empirical evidence, the moderation manifests itself through reduced residual variance in vector autoregressions (VARs) involving macroeconomic variables.     

On the deflationary effect of government's indexed bonds

We consider government intervention in the capital market by selling indexed bonds and buying non-indexed bonds of equal value. If the profits or losses of this operation are transmitted to the public which takes this into consideration then the government's intervention may have no effect on the economy. Insofar as the assumptions of the model permit real effects of the foregoing policy the impact on the economy tends to be deflationary. In analyzing this tendency a distinction is made between the case where the government intervenes in an existing market and the case where it creates a new market for indexed bonds.     

Returns to Scale,Market Power,and the Nature of Price Rigidity in New Keynesian Models with Self‐Fulfilling Expectations

Increasing returns to scale and firms' market power are two potential sources of sunspot expectations in neoclassical models. We show that in New Keynesian models, returns to scale and market power can have fundamentally different implications for broad macroeconomic issues, including self‐fulfilling expectations, depending on the nature of price rigidity. Our findings suggest that the design of stabilization monetary policy can depend on precise knowledge about the economy's real and nominal features. Therefore, a clear understanding of the specific economic environment and its relevance to monetary policymaking for ensuring macroeconomic stability can be an integrated part of monetary policy practice.     

The impact of Milton Friedman on modern monetary economics: Setting the record straight on Paul Krugman's “Who was Milton Friedman?”

Paul Krugman's essay “Who Was Milton Friedman?” seriously mischaracterizes Friedman's economics and his legacy. In this paper, we provide a rejoinder to Krugman on these issues. In the course of setting the record straight, we provide a self-contained guide to Milton Friedman's impact on modern monetary economics and on today's central banks. We also refute the conclusions that Krugman draws about monetary policy from the experiences of the United States in the 1930s and of Japan in the 1990s.     

中国清末民初银本位下的汇率浮动:影响和启示

清末民初,银本位下的中国货币对大多数金本位国家的货币汇率自由浮动。浮动汇率并非影响中国国际收支和宏观经济的主要因素:在汇率大体持续贬值情况下,中国贸易逆差不断增大;汇率贬值有利于刺激外商直接投资和侨汇流入,弥补贸易逆差。关键问题是中国货币状况乃至整体经济活动受制于白银数量,容易大起大落。当前中国汇率弹性有待提高,对货币调控造成较大制约。我国汇率浮动早已有之,不必过于担心,中国完全具备主动加快汇率改革的条件。     

Monetary instruments and policy rules in a rational expectations environment

This paper explores the implications of rational expectations and the aggregate supply theory advanced by Lucas (1973) and Barro (1976) for analysis of optimal monetary policy under uncertainty along the lines of Poole (1970), returning to a topic initially treated by Sargent and Wallace (1975). Not surprisingly, these two ‘classical’ concepts alter both the menu of feasible policy choice and the desirability of certain policy actions. In our setup, unlike that of Sargent and Wallace (1975), the systematic component of monetary policy is a relevant determinant of the magnitude of ‘business fluctuations’ that arise from shocks to the system. Central bank behavior — both the selection of monetary instruments and the framing of overall policy response to economic conditions — can work to diminish or increase the magnitude of business fluctuations. However, the ‘activist’ policies stressed by the present discussion bear little (if any) relationship to the policy options rationalized by the conventional analysis of monetary policy under uncertainty. In particular, in contrast to Poole's analysis, money supply responses to the nominal interest rate are not important determinants of real economic activity. Rather, the central bank should focus on policies that make movements in the general price level readily identifiable by economic agents.     

A wicksellian indicator of monetary policy

This paper compares actual U.S. monetary policy with an ideal policy based upon Wicksell's theory of natural and market rates of interest. For the period 1952–1971, this comparison indicates that actual policies behaved in a distinctly pro-cyclical manner with the result that monetary policies amplified the magnitude of the business cycles. The explanation offered suggests that this stems from the central bank's attempt to stabilize the interest rate which is consistent with one of the paper's findings of a highly significant positive relationship between changes in the natural rate of interest and changes in the monetary base.     

A Model of Monetary Policy Shocks for Financial Crises and Normal Conditions

Deteriorating economic conditions in late 2008 led the Federal Reserve to lower the target federal funds rate to near zero, inject liquidity through novel facilities, and engage in large‐scale asset purchases. The combination of conventional and unconventional policy measures prevents using the effective federal funds rate to assess the effects of monetary policy beyond 2008. We employ a broad monetary aggregate to elicit the effects of monetary policy shocks both before and after 2008. Our estimates align well with major changes in the Fed's asset purchase programs and yield responses that are free from price, output, and liquidity puzzles that plague other approaches.