Inflation targeting and inflation expectations in Mexico

In this article we analyse inflation expectations in Mexico. After a review of the theoretical and empirical literature, we apply unit root, normality and cointegration tests to the data provided by Banco de México (Banxico) in the Survey on the Expectations of the Private Sector Economics Specialists. Our results reject the null hypothesis of normality for inflation expectations over the period 2004:01–2011:12. The exchange rate has become one of the most relevant variables in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in a small open economy. In this regard, we show the existence of a long-run relationship between nominal exchange rate and interest rate where inflation expectations matter for long-term dynamics.     

A century of economic growth in Latin America

This paper makes a contribution to the study of economic growth in developing countries by analyzing the six largest Latin American economies over 105 years within a two-equation framework. Confirming previous findings, physical and human capital prove to be key determinants of GDP per head growth. However, a more controversial result is an overall negative conditional correlation between trade openness and GDP per head growth — though openness has a positive link via investment. The evidence also shows that macroeconomic instability has been a drag on long-term growth in the region.     

Inflation surprises and inflation expectations in the Euro area

In the second half of 2012, euro area inflation started declining and reached historical lows at the end of 2014. Market-based measures of inflation expectations also declined to unprecedented levels. During this disinflationary period, inflation releases have often surprised analysts on the downside. We provide evidence that inflation ‘surprises’ have significant effects on inflation expectations. The sensitivity of inflation expectations to the surprises, which has varied over time, disappeared after the introduction of the Asset Purchase Programme by the European Central Bank.     

拉丁美洲国家养老保险制度改革研究

拉丁美洲国家在养老保险制度改革方面一直引领着世界各国的改革与发展.其改革的模式不仅影响着许多国家的改革,也影响了我国的改革,也是世界银行多年来一直提倡的模式之一.但是从其改革的预期和改革的实际结果分析来看,拉丁美洲国家养老保险制度实际上还存在许多问题.本文着重从拉丁美洲国家养老保险制度改革后的实际绩效与世界银行关于养老保险制度的改革目标之间的差距,来谈存在的问题及值得我们注意的经验教训,以供我们在深化改革过程中去借鉴.     

Convergence clubs in Latin America

The aim of this work is to identify convergence clubs in 17 Latin American countries in terms of GDP per capita during the period 1990–2014. To do this, we apply the methodology developed by Phillips-Sul in order to identify the different convergence clubs on the path of growth in the Latin American economy over this period. The empirical results strongly support the existence of convergence clubs, indicating that the Latin American economy consists of four groups, each converging towards its own steady-state path, with two countries being divergent.     

A note on the rationality of survey inflation expectations in the United Kingdom

When actual and expected inflation rates are integrated process, the rational expectations assumption involves a particular cointegrating relationship between them. This makes it possible to test the rationality hypothesis using error-correction formulations. By using these cointegration- and error-correction techniques, unbiasedness and weak-form efficiency cannot be rejected on survey inflation expectations from British Manufacturing Industries.     

Measuring inflation expectations: a survey data approach

Measures of expected inflation from consumer surveys are derived using a modification of the Carlson-Parkin probability approach, which does not assume unbiasedness of expectations, makes use of survey data on expected future as well as perceived past price developments and allows for time varying response thresholds. We apply this method to the normal, central-t and noncentral-t distributions, thereby investigating the effects of nonnormal peakedness and asymmetry. We find that the effects on expected inflation of the former are small and of the latter are substantial, without increasing the accuracy of the expectations, however. Expected and actual inflation show substantial persistence, and, for most of our expectations measures, are cointegrated. Furthermore, the forecast error is stationary, implying weak-form rationality. The co-movement of currently observed expected inflation measures and the unobserved 12-months-ahead inflation rate is of interest for policy makers, for example in the direct inflation targeting strategy. Notwithstanding this, caution is warranted in using them as information variables because the inflation expected by consumers is no causal determinant of actual future inflation.     

Severance Payment Programs in Latin America

Latin America stands out among different regions in the world for her high employment termination costs. To this contribute both a high level of severance payments and the existence of overlapping benefits. The effectiveness of these protective measures, however, is limited by the size of the informal sector, which, in turn, may be related to employment protection levels. Another important limitation on the effectiveness of employment protection regulation is the often large transaction costs associated with making good of law provisions for the worker. Equilibrium severance pay levels may thus be well below what law mandates as evidence of low coverage rates and undesirable side effects is mounting, reform seems a critical policy issue. However, this reform cannot focus exclusively on severance pay, but it has to incorporate other overlapping benefits, such as UISAs, and advance notice. It also has to contend with a problematic political economy. Jaramillo is a Senior Researcher at the Group for Analysis of Development, GRADE. Saavedra is with the World Bank. Authors are grateful to Eduardo Nakasone for superb research assistance. They also wish to thank participants at the World Bank’s International Workshop on Severance Payments Reform (Laxenberg/Vienna, 2003) for valuable comments.     

Inflation persistence,inflation expectations,and monetary policy in China

This paper constructs a quarterly series of GDP deflator inflation for China from 1979 to 2009 and tests for a structural break with an unknown change point in the dynamic inflation process. Empirical results suggest a significant structural change in inflation persistence. Employing a counterfactual simulation method, we show that the structural change is primarily attributed to better conduct of monetary policy and the resultant better anchored inflation expectations. This finding implies that the quiescence of inflation in China over the past decade could well be followed by a return to a high inflation era in the absence of a determined effort by the monetary authorities in managing inflation expectations. Therefore, the use of a preemptive monetary policy to anchor inflationary expectations and to keep inflation moderate is warranted in China.     

The Capitalist Revolution in Latin America

This article argues that the business enterprise has evolved through successive stable organizational structures which correspond with instability for those falling outside its aegis. This is shown in the institutional and historical context of both managerial capitalism in the mid-twentieth century as well as the era of financialization that followed. Hence, the framework developed herein elaborates on the ceremonial characteristics of the business enterprise under money manager capitalism, and constitutes a contribution toward an updated going concern theory of the business enterprise.     

Microfinance Control Fraud in Latin America

Over the past three decades, the global microfinance industry has witnessed phenomenal growth in terms of the numbers of borrowers and the total gross loan portfolio outstanding. An application of the criminologists' perspective and Black's theory of control fraud to the global microfinance industry reveals a high degree of overlap between the common characteristics of control frauds and the characteristics of the microfinance industry and suggests that the sector provides a criminogenic environment suitable to Ponzi-type dynamics, including an imperative of growth, misrepresentation of financial and operating performance, a reputation for integrity and innovativeness, concentration in unregulated markets and areas most conducive to accounting fraud, non-transparency and secrecy, dubious accounting methods, lobbying in favor of deregulation, attempts to suborn controls such as accountants, lawyers, regulators, and rating agencies, executive use of the company for personal gain, excessive risk taking at the expense of investors' capital, warnings raised but ignored, and, finally, inevitable collapse. Regulatory interventions are needed to prevent predatory lending and over-indebtedness of poor microfinance borrowers in Latin America and elsewhere. Such regulation, while necessary to protect the poor, is not well liked by the investment community as it places microfinance institutions under local scrutiny, reduces the profitability of the sector, and limits opportunities for control fraud.     

Disequilibrium rational expectations: Examples of unemployment with inflation

In this paper, we present a simple dynamic general disequilibrium model which generates both unemployment and inflation as a stationary long-run equilibrium. Rational expectations (in the mean) are an essential part of this equilibrium. Policy remedies are examined. By means of an example, it is shown that rational expectations are consistent with depressed economic activity and that government policy can play an important role. It is entirely possible for inflation and unemployment to persist indefinitely.     

Short-run exchange rate uncertainty in Latin America

This paper to obtain an ex ante measure of exchange rate uncertainty in 11 Latin American countries. As a preliminary issue, the purchasing power parity (PPP) condition is tested using Engle and Granger two-step procedure and Johansen method. The argument is that exchange rate uncertainty could be lower if PPP holds in the long run. The expected exchange rate uncertainty is estimated according to an extended version of the autoregressive, conditionally heteroscedastic (ARCH) model. The results show that the ARCH adjusment produces more efficient estimates in seven countries and that the acceptance of PPP has little effect on exchange rate uncertainty.