Do geographically nearby major customers mitigate suppliers’ stock price crash risk?

This study examines the impact of geographically nearby major customers on suppliers' stock price crash risk. Using a sample of Chinese A-share listed firms and their top five (major) customers during the period 2008–2019, we find a significantly negative association. This association is robust in a series of robustness checks, including the use of instrumental variables estimations, propensity score matching procedure, and Heckman two-step sample selection model. The mitigating effect of supplier?customer proximity on crash risk is more pronounced for suppliers with lower corporate transparency and greater operational uncertainty. Finally, we identify two possible mechanisms through which geographically nearby major customers reduce suppliers’ crash risk: fewer financial restatements and higher accounting conservatism of suppliers. The findings of this study indicate that listed firms may choose geographically nearby customers to reduce crash risk.     

Does a national industrial policy promote financial market stability? A study based on stock price crash risk

Whether the implementation of a national industrial policy can maintain stability in the financial market is a question of theoretical and practical significance. Using data from China’s non-financial listed firms from 2007 to 2020, we find that a national industrial policy lowers stock price crash risk. We find that the effect of an industrial policy on lowering stock price crash risk is more pronounced in regions with low levels of regional marketization and if firms have high external uncertainty, low total asset turnover, greater earnings management and receive small increments of long-term loans and fewer government subsidies, suggesting that industrial policies lower stock price crash risk by improving firm fundamentals and reducing external uncertainty, agency costs and information asymmetry.     

Corporate capital structure and the characteristics of suppliers and customers

We investigate the link between a firm's leverage and the characteristics of its suppliers and customers. Specifically, we examine whether firms use decreased leverage as a commitment mechanism to induce suppliers/customers to undertake relationship-specific investments. We find that the firm's leverage is negatively related to the R&D intensities of its suppliers and customers. We also find lower debt levels for firms operating in industries in which strategic alliances and joint ventures with firms in supplier and customer industries are more prevalent. Consistent with a bargaining role for debt, we find a positive relation between firm debt level and the degree of concentration in supplier/customer industries.     

News-based ESG sentiment and stock price crash risk

From the perspective of ESG news-based sentiment, we examine the impact of ESG performance on stock price crash risk. This paper constructs a sentiment index based on ESG news to measure public opinion of listed firms. First, there is a significant negative relationship between ESG news sentiment and stock price crash risk, indicating that higher ESG news sentiment can reduce the crash risk. Second, heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that ESG sentiment has a greater impact on crash risk reduction for firms with lower analyst coverage, lower information transparency, voluntary ESG information disclosure and non-state-owned. In addition, mechanism tests indicate that ESG sentiment affects stock price crash risk by reducing negative ESG incidents, information asymmetry, and agency costs. This paper examines the research inference that ESG news sentiment is beneficial in reducing stock price crash risk and expands the research on the governance mechanism of stock price crash risk.     

CFOs versus CEOs: Equity incentives and crashes

Using a large sample of U.S. firms for the period 1993-2009, we provide evidence that the sensitivity of a chief financial officer's (CFO) option portfolio value to stock price is significantly and positively related to the firm's future stock price crash risk. In contrast, we find only weak evidence of the positive impact of chief executive officer option sensitivity on crash risk. Finally, we find that the link between CFO option sensitivity and crash risk is more pronounced for firms in non-competitive industries and those with a high level of financial leverage.     

Divergence of Cash Flow and Voting Rights,Opacity, and Stock Price Crash Risk: International Evidence

This study investigates whether and how the deviation of cash flow rights (ownership) from voting rights (control), or simply the ownership‐control wedge, influences the likelihood that extreme negative outliers occur in stock return distributions, which we refer to as stock price crash risk. We do so using a comprehensive panel data set of firms with a dual‐class share structure from 20 countries around the world for the period of 1995–2007. We predict and find that opaque firms with a large wedge are more crash prone than opaque firms with a small wedge. In addition, we predict and find that the positive relation between the wedge and crash risk is less pronounced for firms with more effective external monitoring and for firms with greater growth opportunities. The results of this study are broadly consistent with Jin and Myers’s theory that agency costs, combined with opacity, exacerbate stock price crash risk.     

Do political connections affect stock price crash risk? Firm-level evidence from China

Using a sample of Chinese listed firms in the period from 2003 to 2012, this paper empirically investigates how the presence of politically connected directors affects stock price crash risk. We thereby make a distinction between listed state-controlled firms and privately controlled firms due to their different incentives to appoint politicians as directors on the board. Our empirical results show that politically connected directors exacerbate stock price crash risk in listed state-controlled firms, an effect driven by the appointment of local government officials as directors. In contrast, hiring politicians as directors, particularly central-government-affiliated directors, helps listed privately controlled firms to reduce stock price crash risk. Finally, good quality of institutions does not help to alleviate the positive relationship between political connections and stock price crash risk in listed state-controlled firms. However, it does weaken the role of political connections in reducing crash risk in listed privately controlled firms.     

The impact of customer firm data breaches on the audit fees of their suppliers

This study investigates whether audit risks that accompany data breaches of major customer firms can spillover into the supply chain and affect audit fees of their suppliers. Based on the economic bond that exists between supplier firms and their major customers, we predict that data breach incidents of customer firms will lead to higher audit fees for their respective suppliers. Consistent with customer breaches increasing the audit risk to the supplier, we observe a positive association between breach disclosures made by major customers and audit fees of the supplier firm. This association exists for both internal and external data breaches. We further find that audit fees are increasing with the number of major customers disclosing a breach in a given year. Our results are robust to both a matched sample design and a difference-in-difference approach. Interestingly, we find that while supplier auditors appear to price the risks associated with customer breaches, the breaches do not appear to affect audit quality. The findings of this study are timely and relevant to academics, practitioners, and regulators as supply chains continue to become larger and more complex.     

Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk

We examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on firm-specific crash risk. Based on a large sample of Chinese listed firms over the period from 2000 to 2017, we provide empirical evidence that firms are more likely to experience stock price crashes when EPU increases. Cross-sectionally analysis further reveals that the impact of EPU on stock price crash risk is stronger for firms whose returns are more sensitive to EPU. More specifically, young stocks, small stocks, high volatility stocks, and growth stocks, which have higher valuation uncertainty per se, are more sensitive to EPU and are more affected by EPU in terms of crash risk. We further show that EPU is significantly and positively associated with aggregated stock price crash risk at the market level.     

Institutional cross-ownership and stock price crash risk

Using manually collected data of Chinese listed firms during the period 2007–2018, we provide strong and robust evidence that institutional cross-ownership is negatively associated with firm-specific stock price crash risk. Building on China’s institutional settings, we document that the negative relation is more pronounced for firms located in provinces with higher political uncertainty, or state-owned enterprises. This paper also conducts several mechanisms analyses and has confirmed three potential influencing mechanisms, such as information advantage, governance improvement and anticompetitive incentives, in explaining the effect of institutional cross-ownership on stock price crash risk. Overall, this paper develops a new perspective to investigate the ways to alleviate stock price crash risk in emerging markets.     

Sell the rumour,buy the fact?

We document a high‐profile instance of mispricing that is puzzling given the gradual information diffusion hypothesis and the lack of obvious limits to arbitrage. An internet search in 2008 led to a story about United Airlines’ 2002 bankruptcy being re‐released as ‘news’. This resulted in United Airlines losing 73 per cent of its value and caused a $4.2 billion decline in the value of airline stocks and United Airlines suppliers. The incorrect bankruptcy ‘news’ was quickly retracted, which led to a rebound in other airline and supplier firms, but the stock price of United Airlines was adversely affected for 4 days.     

Board directors with foreign experience and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China

This study examines the impact of board directors with foreign experience (BDFEs) on stock price crash risk. We find that BDFEs help reduce crash risk. This association is robust to a series of robustness checks, including a firm fixed effects model, controlling for possibly omitted variables, and instrumental variable estimations. Moreover, we find that the negative association between BDFEs and crash risk is more pronounced for firms with more agency problems, weaker corporate governance, and less overall transparency. Our findings suggest that the characteristics of board directors matter in determining stock price crash risk.     

Customer–supplier relationships and corporate tax avoidance

We investigate whether firms in close customer–supplier relationships are better able to identify and implement tax avoidance strategies via supply chains. Consistent with our prediction, we find that both principal customers and their dependent suppliers avoid more taxes than other firms. Further analysis suggests that principal customers and dependent suppliers likely engage in tax strategies involving shifting profits to tax haven subsidiaries. Moreover, tax benefits appear to explain both principal customer firms’ and dependent supplier firms’ organizational decisions. Overall, our study provides evidence of the importance of tax avoidance as a source of gains from these relationships.     

Stock price crash risk and CEO power: Firm-level analysis

This study examines the impact of stock price crash risk on future CEO power. Using a large panel sample with 17,816 firm-year observations, we posit and find a significant negative impact of stock price crash risk on CEO power, suggesting that CEO power becomes smaller after stock price crashes. We also find that our results are stronger for firms with female CEOs and are largely driven by firms with shorter-tenure CEOs. In addition, we find that the significant negative impact of stock price crash risk on CEO power is diminished for firms with strong corporate governance. Our study responds to the call in Habib, Hasan, and Jiang (2018) by providing more empirical evidence on the consequences of stock price crash risk.     

Do mandatory risk factor disclosures reduce stock price crash risk?

We test whether voluntary or mandatory risk factor disclosures (RFDs) in 10-K filings is associated with a reduction in stock price crash risk. We find that the level of mandatory RFDs in 10-K filings is associated with a reduction in stock price crash risk but find no similar relationship for voluntary RFDs. We exploit two exogenous shocks to mitigate endogeneity concerns that remain to be addressed in the literature. We investigate the moderators for this relationship and find the reduction is magnified among firms with higher information asymmetry, higher litigation risk, or better corporate governance. Overall, our findings identify a potential avenue to mitigate stock price crash risk and provide evidence that mandated RFDs contain useful information content and benefit investors.     

Corporate tax avoidance and stock price crash risk: Firm-level analysis

Using a large sample of U.S. firms for the period 1995–2008, we provide strong and robust evidence that corporate tax avoidance is positively associated with firm-specific stock price crash risk. This finding is consistent with the following view: Tax avoidance facilitates managerial rent extraction and bad news hoarding activities for extended periods by providing tools, masks, and justifications for these opportunistic behaviors. The hoarding and accumulation of bad news for extended periods lead to stock price crashes when the accumulated hidden bad news crosses a tipping point, and thus comes out all at once. Moreover, we show that the positive relation between tax avoidance and crash risk is attenuated when firms have strong external monitoring mechanisms such as high institutional ownership, high analyst coverage, and greater takeover threat from corporate control markets.     

Zero-leverage policy and stock price crash risk: Evidence from Korea

This study examines the difference in stock price crash risk between zero-leverage and non-zero-leverage firms. We find that zero-leverage firms have a significantly higher future stock price crash risk than non-zero-leverage firms. Next, we find that the positive relation between zero-leverage policy and future stock price crash risk is more pronounced when firms have higher controlling shareholders' ownership and foreign ownership. We also find that the positive relation is more pronounced for firms with low cash holdings than for those with high cash holdings. Further, we find that the positive relation is stronger for dividend-paying firms than non-dividend-paying firms. Our results are robust to alternative estimation specifications and endogeneity concerns. Overall, our findings shed light on the extent to which extreme corporate financial policy has an impact on future stock price crash risk. Our empirical evidence also provides meaningful implications for how stakeholders (especially investors) predict stock price crash risk in the context of extremely conservative capital structure.     

The market’s use of supplier earnings information to value customers

In this paper we examine whether the quarterly earnings announcements of supplier firms contain information about their customer’s earnings. Our evidence suggests that they do. Specifically, we find evidence consistent with the market impounding supplier firm earnings information into the stock prices of the firm’s customers. This is consistent with the market using the supplier’s earnings to help assess the customer firm’s future cash flows and/or uncertainty of those cash flows. We also find that the quality of the earnings influences the magnitude of the customer firm’s stock price reaction. The customer’s stock price reaction is increasing in the revenue growth reported by the supplier and the past persistence of the supplier’s earnings. Additional tests reveal that the market reaction is amplified when the customer firm is more dependent on the supplier. Finally, we find that the relative bargaining power of the customer influences the market reaction to supplier earnings. While prior research has documented that the market uses industry peer earnings and customer earnings in pricing a firm’s stock, this is the first study to provide evidence on the market’s use of supplier earnings information.     

Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk

This paper studies the impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock price crash risk using data from China. We develop a new index to measure Chinese economic policy uncertainty and find that economic policy uncertainty has a remarkable positive effect on stock price crash risk. However, the effect reverses later. The results also indicate that the positive effect of economic policy uncertainty on stock price crash risk is more prominent for state‐owned enterprises. Moreover, this effect is more prominent for firms with higher information asymmetry and firms with greater disagreement among investors, indicating that economic policy uncertainty affects crash risk through two mechanisms: managers’ concealment of bad news and investors’ heterogeneous beliefs.     

When stock price crash risk meets fundamentals

We investigate the relationship between fundamental strength and stock price crash risk by analyzing a large sample of Chinese firms. We mainly find that firms with stronger (weaker) total fundamental strength, higher (lower) profitability and higher (lower) operating efficiency have lower (higher) stock price crash risk. Moreover, this negative relationship is more pronounced for firms with a great number of short-term institutional investors and opaque firms. Additional test illustrates that internal control could ameliorate this negative relationship. All these findings are robust to alternative measurements of crash risk and endogeneity correction.