Industry‐Specific Human Capital,Idiosyncratic Risk,and the Cross‐Section of Expected Stock Returns

Human capital is one of the largest assets in the economy and in theory may play an important role for asset pricing. Human capital is heterogeneous across investors. One source of heterogeneity is industry affiliation. I show that the cross‐section of expected stock returns is primarily affected by industry‐level rather than aggregate labor income risk. Furthermore, when human capital is excluded from the asset pricing model, the resulting idiosyncratic risk may appear to be priced. I find that the premium for idiosyncratic risk documented by several empirical studies depends on the covariance between stock and human capital returns.     

Pricing Double-Trigger Reinsurance Contracts: Financial Versus Actuarial Approach

This article discusses various approaches to pricing double‐trigger reinsurance contracts—a new type of contract that has emerged in the area of ‘‘alternative risk transfer.’’ The potential coverage from this type of contract depends on both underwriting and financial risk. We determine the reinsurer's reservation price if it wants to retain the firm's same safety level after signing the contract, in which case the contract typically must be backed by large amounts of equity capital (if equity capital is the risk management measure to be taken). We contrast the financial insurance pricing models with an actuarial pricing model that has as its objective no lessening of the reinsurance company's expected profits and no worsening of its safety level. We show that actuarial pricing can lead the reinsurer into a trap that results in the failure to close reinsurance contracts that would have a positive net present value because typical actuarial pricing dictates the type of risk management measure that must be taken, namely, the insertion of additional capital. Additionally, this type of pricing structure forces the reinsurance buyer to provide this safety capital as a debtholder. Finally, we discuss conditions leading to a market for double‐trigger reinsurance contracts.     

Equity market valuation of human capital and stock returns

We investigate whether and how well firms’ stock market valuations reflect their employees’ collective skills and effectiveness relative to that of their industry peers and competitors. We devise a relative stock market valuation measure of human capital intangibles (EVHC) and find that portfolios of low EVHC firms systematically outperform portfolios of high EVHC firms by an average 1.34% per month. However, this is primarily a small firms effect, because for large firms the excess returns of the arbitrage portfolio that is long on the low EVHC stocks and short on the high EVHC stocks is zero. Our results suggest that reliance on human capital intangibles may proxy for risk not fully accounted for by conventional asset pricing models, or alternatively, that the market cannot correctly price human capital intangibles for small size firms.     

风险投资中企业家人力资本定价影响因素的实证研究

本文从影响风险投资中企业家人力资本定价的因素分析入手,针对其多层次、多维度的特点,建立了一个有内在逻辑关系、能够较全面反映企业家人力资本定价影响因素的理论框架.并采用协方差结构模型分析(CSM)方法,对这些因素进行了实证研究.结果表明,在风险投资中,企业家的控制权对企业家人力资本定价影响因素的解释率最高,其次是企业经营绩效,企业经营规模的解释率较低.     

An Empirical Evaluation of the Friedman Hypothesis of Inflation on Capital Asset Pricing

An empirical model incorporating the Friedman inflation uncertainty hypothesis is evaluated on capital asset pricing in conjunction with the covariance effect of the Fisher inflation hypothesis. The Fisher-Friedman capital asset pricing empirical model (FFCAPM) is compared to the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the Chen-Boness (C-B) model for explanatory power and significance over three periods. The FFCAPM performed better than the two competing models in explaining the variation in equity returns. The Friedman hypotheses of a positive economy-wide inflation adjustment and a negative inflation uncertainty impact are supported. A firm-specific inflation response of Fisher inflation covariance was also supported. These results indicate that empirical support for the Fisher effect may be limited given the normal testing procedure of simply adding an inflation term as in previous studies.     

Model risk of contingent claims

Paralleling regulatory developments, we devise value-at-risk and expected shortfall type risk measures for the potential losses arising from using misspecified models when pricing and hedging contingent claims. Essentially, P&L from model risk corresponds to P&L realized on a perfectly hedged position. Model uncertainty is expressed by a set of pricing models, each of which represents alternative asset price dynamics to the model used for pricing. P&L from model risk is determined relative to each of these models. Using market data, a unified loss distribution is attained by weighing models according to a likelihood criterion involving both calibration quality and model parsimony. Examples demonstrate the magnitude of model risk and corresponding capital buffers necessary to sufficiently protect trading book positions against unexpected losses from model risk. A further application of the model risk framework demonstrates the calculation of gap risk of a barrier option when employing a semi-static hedging strategy.     

The evolution of capital asset pricing models

The capital asset pricing models (CAPM) has been the benchmark of asset pricing models and has been used to calculate asset returns and the cost of capital for more than four decades. Many researchers have tried to relax the original assumptions and generalize the static CAPM. We survey the important alternative theoretical models of capital asset pricing and provide a complete review of the evolution of asset pricing models. We also discuss the interrelationships among these models and suggest several possible directions for future research. Our results might be used as a guideline for future theoretical and empirical research in capital asset pricing.     

Corporate sustainability in asset pricing models and mutual funds performance measurement

This study explores whether corporate sustainability is a relevant factor in multifactor asset pricing models. It contributes to the literature on asset pricing, as well as to the literature that examines how sustainability impacts capital markets, by constructing a new factor that captures differences in the returns of sustainable and non-sustainable firms. Specifically, it examines whether an additional sustainability factor has explanatory power in asset pricing models that include size, book-to-market equity, and momentum factors. This research has practical implications for the performance measurement of portfolios and mutual funds that are managed in accordance with sustainability criteria in that it disentangles general stock-picking skills from the differences in returns between sustainable and non-sustainable stocks.     

Idiosyncratic momentum and the cross‐section of stock returns: Further evidence

In this article, we evaluate the profitability and economic source of the predictive power of the idiosyncratic momentum effect, by using five popular asset pricing models to construct the idiosyncratic momentum. We show that all five idiosyncratic momentum strategies produce similar return predictability and consistently outperform the conventional momentum strategy in the cross‐sectional pricing of equity portfolios and individual stocks. This positive effect of idiosyncratic momentum on returns is consistent with the investment capital asset pricing model (CAPM). Further analysis reveals that the firm‐level idiosyncratic momentum effect cannot extend to the aggregate stock market.     

Firm characteristics and the impact of emerging market liberalizations

We provide a firm level analysis of the impact of capital market liberalization in 18 emerging markets. Consistent with models of international asset pricing, we find that firms’ stock returns increase during liberalization and that a majority of firms have lower mean returns and lower dividend yields after liberalization. We also find that emerging market firms have increased exposure to the world market and decreased exposure to the home market following liberalization. These changes in returns and exposures support the predictions of theoretical international asset pricing models. We also test and find support for the importance of size, local risk, foreign exchange risk, and cross-listing status in explaining the cross-section of changes in returns.     

Estimating the cost of capital with basis assets

Instead of using industry groups or asset pricing models to estimate the cost of capital we propose using risk equivalent classes known as basis assets. A basis asset is constructed by grouping firms together whose returns indicate they share a common risk exposure, which in theory permits a precise and accurate expected return estimate. Thus, knowing to which basis asset a firm belongs, the firm’s cost of capital can be obtained. Empirically, we show that basis assets lead to superior cost of capital estimates when compared with widely used industry groupings. This means we are no longer reliant on asset pricing models or industry groups to estimate the cost of capital of a firm.     

Misspecification of capital asset pricing: Empirical anomalies based on earnings' yields and market values

This study documents empirical anomalies which suggest that either the simple one-period capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is misspecified or that capital markets are inefficient. In particular, portfolios based on firm size or earnings/price (E/P) ratios experience average returns systematically different from those predicted by the CAPM. Furthermore, the ‘abnormal’ returns persist for at least two years. This persistence reduces the likelihood that these results are being generated by a market inefficiency. Rather, the evidence seems to indicate that the equilibrium pricing model is misspecified. However, the data also reveals that an E/P effect does not emerge after returns are controlled for the firm size effect; the firm size effect largely subsumes the E/P effect. Thus, while the E/P anomaly and value anomaly exist when each variable is considered separately, the two anomalies seem to be related to the same set of missing factors, and these factors appear to be more closely associated with firm size than E/P ratios.     

Pension benefits, wealth accumulation, and capital market equilibrium: a life cycle hypothesis-based dynamic model

This paper examines the impacts of pension benefits on capital asset pricing in conjunction with wealth accumulation and retirement, and derives and tests a dynamic capital asset pricing model (CAPM) within the framework of a life cycle hypothesis-based dynamic model. The life cycle hypothesis-based dynamic model maximizes the expected utility of the individual's lifetime wealth in a continuous time process. An optimal solution of the individual's wealth path, incorporating the ages of retirement and death, is obtained and, based on the optimal wealth path, an analysis of comparative dynamics is pursued. The dynamic CAPM is then derived from the optimal wealth path; simulation and nonparametric tests are undertaken to evaluate the performance of the dynamic CAPM as compared to the traditional model which does not consider the impacts of pension benefits and the static model that incorporates the effects of pension benefits. The test results suggest that the proposed dynamic CAPM closely states the expected rate of return for a capital asset; that the new dynamic CAPM is preferable over the static model that is preferable over the traditional model; and that the three models considered are statistically distinguishable from one another.     

Pricing CDS spreads with Credit Valuation Adjustment using a mixture copula

Credit derivatives pricing models before Basel III ignored losses in market value stemming from higher probability of counterparty default. We propose a general credit derivatives pricing model to evaluate a Credit Default Swap (CDS) with counterparty risk, including the Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) in order to optimize the economic capital allocation. We work from the model proposed by Luciano (2003, Working Paper, International Center of Economic Research) and the general pricing representation established by Sorensen and Bollier (Financial Analysts Journal 1994;50(3):23–33) to provide a model close to the market practice, easy to implement and fitting with Basel III framework. We approach the dependence between counterparty risk and that of the reference entity with a technical tool: the copula, in particular, the mixture one that combines common “extreme” copulas. We study the CDS's vulnerability in extreme dependence cases. By varying Spearman's rho, the mixture copula covers a broad spectrum of dependence and ensures closed form prices. We end up with an application on real market data.     

Evaluating asset pricing models using the second Hansen-Jagannathan distance

We develop a specification test and a sequence of model selection procedures for non-nested, overlapping, and nested models based on the second Hansen-Jagannathan distance, which requires a good asset pricing model to not only have small pricing errors but also be arbitrage free. Our methods have reasonably good finite sample performances and are more powerful than existing ones in detecting misspecified models with small pricing errors but are not arbitrage-free and in differentiating models that have similar pricing errors of a given set of test assets. Using the Fama and French size and book-to-market portfolios, we reach dramatically different conclusions on model performances based on our approach and existing methods.     

The effect of time-varying covariances on asset risk premia

In this article we examine an intertemporal capital asset pricing model (CAPM) that allows for time-varying conditional covariances that are assumed to follow a multivariate integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (IGARCH) process. The resulting pricing equation includes idiosyncratic risk premia in addition to the usual market beta. Empirical analysis based on ten size and ten industry portfolios reveals significant idiosyncratic premia for most portfolios. Overall, we reject the static CAPM in favor of the intertemporal CAPM.     

Unbounded liabilities,capital reserve requirements and the taxpayer put option

When firms access unbounded liability exposures and are granted limited liability, then an all equity firm holds a call option, whereby it receives a free option to put losses back to the taxpayers. We call this option the taxpayer put, where the strike is the negative of the level of reserve capital at stake in the firm. We contribute by (i) valuing this taxpayer put, and (ii) determining the level for reserve capital without a reference to ratings. Reserve capital levels are designed to mitigate the adverse incentives for unnecessary risk introduced by the taxpayer put at the firm level. In our approach, the level of reserve capital is set to make the aggregate risk of the firm externally acceptable, where the specific form of acceptability employed is positive expectation under a concave distortion of the cash flow distribution. It is observed that, in the presence of the taxpayer put, debt holders may not be relied upon to monitor risk as their interests are partially aligned with equity holders by participating in the taxpayer put. Furthermore, the taxpayer put leads to an equity pricing model associated with a market discipline that punishes perceived cash shortfalls.     

The pricing of volatility risk in the US equity market

We analyze whether the pricing of volatility risk depends on the asset pricing framework applied in the tests, the specified volatility proxies, and the portfolio sorts used for spanning the asset universe. For this purpose, we compare the results using a macroeconomic and fundamental based asset pricing model using three proxies of volatility and uncertainty, using size/value sorted and industry sector portfolios. Our results reveal that the marginal pricing effect of the VIX volatility factor is strong and statistically significant throughout the models and specifications, while the effect of an EGARCH-based volatility factor is mixed, mostly smaller but with the correct sign. In most cases, the EGARCH factor does not impair the pricing effect of the VIX. The portfolio sorts have a substantial impact on the volatility premiums in both model frameworks. The size of the volatility risk premium is more uniform across the models if the industry sector portfolio sort is used. Finally, the size/value portfolio sort generates larger volatility risk premiums for both models.     

A Comparison of the Efficacy of Liquidity,Momentum, Size and Book‐to‐Market Value Factors in Equity Pricing on a Heterogeneous Sample: Evidence from Asia

This paper compares the size and book‐to‐market value factors of Fama and French (1993) alongside Momentum of Jagadeesh and Titman ( 1993 ) with two Liu ( 2006 ) liquidity factors formed from 1 year rebalancing and 1 month rebalancing respectively. A heterogeneous and comprehensive sample of the top blue chip stocks of all national Asian equity markets with further differentiation undertaken between sub samples formed for Japan only and Asia excluding Japan for period January 2000 to August 2014. Our empirical results suggest that multifactor time invariant pricing models based on augmented capital asset pricing model (CAPM) framework are ineffective in explaining the cross section of stock returns in the presence of significant inter and intra‐market segmentation. However an alternative model specification based on a time varying parameter specification and using same sets of factors yields significant enhancements in explaining cross section of stock returns across universe. We find that momentum factor largely lacks significance while a time varying two factor model, based on CAPM plus liquidity factor, is optimal. The liquidity factor being that of Liu (2006) and annually rebalanced. Our findings are important for investment managers seeking appropriate factors and modelling techniques to hedge against risks as well as firm's financial managers seeking to reduce costs of equity capital.