中国工业资本收益率和配置效率测算及分解

本文利用1999-2007年的工业企业数据库测算了中国工业资本收益率,在此基础上基于资本边际收益均一化理论测算了工业资本配置效率,并利用份额转换分析方法对工业资本收益率进行行业间分解,结果显示:(1)中国的工业资本收益率在近十年内大幅提高,而资本在行业间的配置效率虽然有所提高,但是变化很小。(2)中国工业部门资本收益率的增长是由于资本收益率自身的增长效应带来的。工业资本效率的改善更多体现在总量效率上,而投资结构缺乏效率。本文的发现对反思和探讨产业调控政策措施选择问题具有借鉴意义。     

资本回报率增长的最优知识产权保护强度研究——基于82个国家面板数据的实证

基于制度层面分析资本回报率变动的动因有助于探索经济增长新动力。计算82个国家的资本回报率，并基于知识产权保护视角对其变动机制进行分析，得出以下主要结论：①资本回报率增长存在最优知识产权保护强度，但发展中国家的理论最优强度小于发达国家；②发展中国家知识产权保护以远离最优强度状态促进资本回报率提升，发达国家则以接近最优强度状态促进资本回报率提升；③金融危机后，知识产权保护的促进效应在发展中国家更加明显，在发达国家有所弱化；④机制分析显示，知识产权保护通过促进技术创新提升资本回报率。     

中国资本回报率变动的动因分析——基于资本深化和技术进步的视角

本文推导了资本回报率的计算公式,从资本深化和技术进步的视角对资本回报率的变动进行了分解,发现影响资本回报率变动的主要因素有:乘数大小、资本深化和技术进步。利用1980—2009年数据计算了中国的资本回报率,估算了资本的边际产出弹性,并对资本回报率的变动进行了分解。实证研究发现,中国的资本回报率并没有随投资的增长而降低,资本深化虽然导致了资本回报率的降低,且乘数放大了这种效应,但技术进步却提高了资本的边际产出,从而使得中国的资本回报率处于一个稳定水平。     

The Return to Capital and Convergence in a Two Sector Model of Endogenous Growth

This paper obtains a simple algebraic derivation of the transitional dynamics of a two-sector endogenous growth model. This paper finds that the return to capital and the growth rate of output fall over time on the transition path if the initial ratio of physical capital to human capital is lower than the steady state level. It also shows that two sector endogenous growth models are consistent with the evidence on conditional convergence found by Barro (1991) and Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1991). Neoclassical growth models and endogenous growth models are impossible to distinguish in terms of the falling rate of return on capital or in terms of conditional convergence. [O41]     

On the Invariance of the Rate of Return to Convex Adjustment Costs

The modified golden rule, which relates the rate of return on capital and the growth rate of the capital stock along long-run growth paths that maximize the utility of a representative infinitely lived consumer, is invariant to the introduction of convex capital adjustment costs. Therefore, along balanced growth paths in neoclassical optimal growth models with an exogenous long-run growth rate of capital, the rate of return is invariant to the introduction of convex adjustment costs, though the capital–labor ratio is reduced along such paths. In AK models, convex adjustment costs reduce the growth rate and rate of return on capital. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: E2.     

Investment in Hierarchical Human Capital

Advanced human capital requires "basic" human capital as an input. Physical capital does not, in general, have such hierarchical structure. This paper models optimal investment in hierarchical human capital as well as nonhierarchical physical capital. The authors analyze the steady state, transition dynamics, and endogenous growth properties of the system. The optimal program exhibits non-monotonicities in human capital stocks. This result has important implications for the optimal timing of investment in hierarchical human capital. The analysis also addresses the debate regarding the distribution of education expenditures and the divergence between ex-post and ex-ante rates of return to education.     

Public investment,the rate of return,and optimal fiscal policy in a stochastically growing economy

This study examines the optimal fiscal policy in a stochastic endogenous growth model with private and public capital. The government is willing to actualize a socially optimal equilibrium using a lump-sum tax and government debt linked to public investments, subject to the budget constraint under the golden rule of public finance. A socially optimal fiscal policy states that a deterministic rate of return on government bonds sets the marginal product of public capital. Moreover, public investments optimally adjust the ratio of private capital to public capital to equate the rates of return on such capital. The presence of stochastic disturbances results in a disparity between the optimal marginal products of the two types of capital, as reported in previous empirical studies. This disparity significantly affects the socially optimal growth rate in response to investment risk.     

Secondary Capital Markets, Long-Run Growth, and the Term Structure of Asset Yields

An endogenous growth model is presented in which production uses a vector of capital inputs. Technologies for creating capital of different types vary by gestation period and productivity. Ownership of gestating capital must be "rolled over" in secondary capital markets in which transactions are costly. We study how reductions in transactions costs affect the equilibrium growth rate, the rate of return on saving, the volume of activity in secondary capital markets, and the term structure of asset yields. We give conditions under which reductions in transactions costs result in higher or lower growth rates.     

International Financial Liberalization, Corruption, and Economic Growth

This paper examines the effects of capital account liberalization on the long-run growth of a developing economy. A general-equilibrium, endogenous growth model is constructed in which corruption forms an integral part of the governance system of the country. By undermining the profitability of innovations, corruption lowers the rate of return to capital and reduces the rate of technological change. The impact of international financial liberalization on long-run growth in this model can be either positive or negative. A drop in growth is obtained when the level of corruption is high enough to cause domestic rates of return to capital before liberalization to drop below those in the rest of the world. In this case, liberalization generates capital outflows, which act as a constraining force on innovation, reducing the rate of technological change and lowering output growth. On the other hand, if the level of corruption is sufficiently low, the capital account liberalization will serve as a boost to the country's technical change and growth.     

金融发展、投资扩张模式与中国的资本回报率*

本文从理论上分析了金融发展对资本回报率的影响机理，并使用中国省际数据进行了实证验证，得出的主要结论有：中国的资本回报率由2008年之前的平稳期进入到大幅度下降期，但区域间趋同趋势明显；中国金融发展不足与发展过度问题并存，其对资本回报率的影响也因地区不同而出现了明显差异，在投资扩张系数较高的地区存在着“金融失效”现象，在投资扩张系数较低的地区存在着“金融诅咒”现象，在投资扩张系数居中的地区存在着“结构失调”现象；政府干预会加剧金融发展的不利影响，但该作用在不断减弱；资本积累对技术进步促进作用的缺失，是资本存量对资本回报率产生负向影响的重要原因；劳动力增强型技术进步不仅促进了资本回报率的提升，还延续了投资驱动型增长的时期；技术进步是中国资本回报率提升的重要动力。     

投资者恶性增资行为的控制机制探讨——基于原生性认知和负反馈信息明确化的考察

本文探讨了在资本预算项目决策中,投资者恶性增资行为的控制机制。文中首先提出了同时使用相对降低投资者的原生性认知和使负反馈信息明确化两种途径,可有效地抑制投资者的恶性增资行为。采用综合设定项目最低报酬率方式可同时达到这一目的。其次,本文运用模拟实验法对该观点进行了验证。验证结果表明：综合设定项目最低报酬率的方式既能有效地抑制恶性增资行为,又可以使设定的最低报酬率与公司期望的最低报酬率无显著差异。     

Is an increasing capital share under capitalism inevitable?

Piketty's influential book Capital in the Twenty-First Century and its prominent review by Milanovic in the Journal of Economic Literature both assert the inevitability of an increasing share of capital in total income, given a higher rate of return to capital than the rate of growth in income. This paper shows by a specific example, a logical argument and its intuition that the alleged inevitability is not valid. Even just for capital to grow faster than income, we need an additional requirement that saving of non-capital income is larger than consumption of capital income. Even if this is satisfied, the capital share may not increase as the rate of return may fall and non-capital incomes may increase with capital accumulation.     

Environmental Standards in a Large Open Economy

The small‐country price‐taking assumption of Oates and Schwab is relaxed to consider a large open economy that can influence its net capital return. This creates an incentive for the country to distort its policies. The key question asked is whether this induces inefficient outcomes. The result is that if the country has a dedicated tax on capital and uses this tax optimally, the Oates and Schwab first‐best result still holds. However, efficiency in a large open economy requires that the tax on capital be nonzero, unlike Oates and Schwab where the capital tax must be zero for first‐best efficiency.     

HOW LARGE ARE LEARNING EXTERNALITIES?*

The quantitative features of human capital externalities are not fully understood. Although static externalities are estimated in some studies, learning externalities remain mostly unestimated. By calibrating a growth model, this article provides an estimate of learning externalities. The calibration uses an equilibrium condition that equates private returns on physical capital and human capital. The results suggest that sizable learning externalities exist, even in a conservative setup. The estimated social rate of return on human capital is 9.0%, compared to the private rate of return, 6.6%. Therefore, human capital externalities are an important source of economic growth.     

Pension Reform, Capital Markets and the Rate of Return

Abstract. This paper discusses the consequences of population aging and a fundamental pension reform – that is, a shift towards more pre‐funding – for capital markets in Germany. We use a stylized closed‐economy, overlapping‐generations model to compare the effects of the recent German pension reform with those of a more decisive reform that would freeze the current pay‐as‐you‐go contribution rate and thus result in a larger funded component of the pension system. We predict rates of return to capital under both reform scenarios over a long horizon, taking demographic projections as given. Our main finding is that the future decrease in the rate of return is much smaller than often claimed in the public debate. Our simulations show that the capital stock will decrease once the baby‐boom generations enter retirement, even if there were no fundamental pension reform. The corresponding decrease in the rate of return, the direct effect of population aging, is around 0.7 percentage points. While the capital market effects of the recent German pension reform are marginal, the rate of return to capital would decrease by an additional 0.5 percentage points under the more decisive reform proposal.     

Income inequality in China: causes and policy responses

The phenomenal economic growth in China has been accompanied by a rapid increase in income inequality. This paper reviews the historical trends and patterns of income inequality in China, discusses the potential causes underlying rising income inequality, and applies the functional distribution of income approach in understanding China’s income inequality. This analytical approach highlights how rising return to capital relative to wage incomes can be an important source for increasing income inequality in China. The paper provides the evidence which shows that the rapid economic growth in China has been relying on a model that pays high returns to various kinds of capital including financial capital and real estate, while the ownership of capital is very unequal. This finding prompts us to rethink about the causes of China’s income inequality and to formulate appropriate policies based on the new way of understanding this pressing issue of income distribution in China.     

Government intervention in industry: The case of Israel

Industrial activity in Israel is marked by considerable government intervention, especially in the capital market. This paper examines its effect on rates of return, risk, exports, and the structure of industry (concentration and firm size). The results (1965–1980) show that risk (whose main element is the probability of bankruptcy), R&D spending and human capital were positively related to the rate of return; the effect of firm size and concentration was negative, an unexpected result reflecting mainly government support generating excess investment and unutilized capital. Although most industries in Israel are private and competitive government measures had a substantial, mostly indirect, negative effect on the determinants of industrial performance.     

Growth and welfare effects of business cycles in economies with idiosyncratic human capital risk

This paper uses a tractable macroeconomic model with idiosyncratic human capital risk and incomplete markets to analyze the growth and welfare effects of business cycles. The analysis is based on the assumption that the elimination of business cycles eliminates the variation in idiosyncratic risk. The paper shows that a reduction in the variation in idiosyncratic risk decreases the ratio of physical to human capital and increases the total investment return and welfare. If the degree of risk aversion is less than or equal to one, then economic growth is enhanced. This paper also provides a quantitative assessment of the macroeconomic effects of business cycles based on a calibrated version of the model. Even for relatively small degrees of risk aversion (around one) the model implies that the elimination of business cycles has substantial effects on investment in physical and human capital, economic growth, and welfare.     

Macroeconomic stability and economic justice

This article presents a proposal to broaden the right to acquire capital with the earnings of capital as a means of promoting sustainable economic recovery and growth. It would open the markets for real and financial capital acquisition more fully and competitively to poor and working people (1) to distribute more broadly the earnings of capital and (2) to profitably employ more capital and labor. Both the recession and the strategies advanced to promote economic recovery may be viewed as responses to the prospect of inadequate present and future earning capacity of both consumers and producers (1) to purchase what can physically be produced and (2) to repay existent and anticipated debt obligations. To increase the prospects of sufficient, sustainable earning capacity, the proposal advanced in this article would extend to all people the same protections and benefits presently provided by government that facilitate market transactions whereby capital is acquired with the earnings of capital primarily for well-capitalized people. Although in theory, all people in a market economy are able to acquire capital with the earnings of capital, reliable empirical data reveal that as a practical matter, the major determinant of the ability of individuals to acquire capital with the earnings of capital is the existing distribution of capital ownership. The theory of “binary” economic growth underlying this proposal holds that the market return on capital is positively related to the distribution of capital acquisition with the earnings of capital. The prospect of a broader distribution of capital acquisition with the earnings of capital carries with it the prospect of more broadly distributed earning capacity in future years, which in turn will provide the market incentives to profitably employ more capital and labor in earlier years. The idea that the broader distribution of capital acquisition with the earnings of capital will promote growth is not found in any of the widely accepted theories and models of economic growth such as those proposed by Schumpeter, Solow, Roemer, and Lucas. By opening to all people the institutions of corporate finance, banking, insurance, government loans and guaranties, and monetary policy (the very institutions presently relied upon by the Federal Government to stimulate the economy) the practical ability to acquire capital with the earnings of capital can be more broadly extended to all people with the result that greatly enhanced prospects for greater and more broadly distributed earning capacity and growth can be reasonably expected and realized by all.     

Broadening the Right to Acquire Capital with the Earnings of Capital: the Missing Link to Sustainable Economic Recovery and Growth

This article presents a proposal to broaden the right to acquire capital with the earnings of capital as a means of promoting sustainable economic recovery and growth. It would open the markets for real and financial capital acquisition more fully and competitively to poor and working people (1) to distribute more broadly the earnings of capital and (2) to profitably employ more capital and labor. Both the recession and the strategies advanced to promote economic recovery may be viewed as responses to the prospect of inadequate present and future earning capacity of both consumers and producers (1) to purchase what can physically be produced and (2) to repay existent and anticipated debt obligations. To increase the prospects of sufficient, sustainable earning capacity, the proposal advanced in this article would extend to all people the same protections and benefits presently provided by government that facilitate market transactions whereby capital is acquired with the earnings of capital primarily for well-capitalized people. Although in theory, all people in a market economy are able to acquire capital with the earnings of capital, reliable empirical data reveal that as a practical matter, the major determinant of the ability of individuals to acquire capital with the earnings of capital is the existing distribution of capital ownership. The theory of “binary” economic growth underlying this proposal holds that the market return on capital is positively related to the distribution of capital acquisition with the earnings of capital. The prospect of a broader distribution of capital acquisition with the earnings of capital carries with it the prospect of more broadly distributed earning capacity in future years, which in turn will provide the market incentives to profitably employ more capital and labor in earlier years. The idea that the broader distribution of capital acquisition with the earnings of capital will promote growth is not found in any of the widely accepted theories and models of economic growth such as those proposed by Schumpeter, Solow, Roemer, and Lucas. By opening to all people the institutions of corporate finance, banking, insurance, government loans and guaranties, and monetary policy (the very institutions presently relied upon by the Federal Government to stimulate the economy) the practical ability to acquire capital with the earnings of capital can be more broadly extended to all people with the result that greatly enhanced prospects for greater and more broadly distributed earning capacity and growth can be reasonably expected and realized by all.