The Reaction of Coffee Futures Price Volatility to Crop Reports

Analysis of prices and volatility plays an important role in coffee market, especially for developing countries, whose small producers and economies rely heavily on income generated by coffee trade. This study explores the impact of coffee crop reports on price volatility for coffee futures contracts during 2004–2014. Overall, results indicate that crop reports generally affect price volatility. The impact is particularly stronger when they provide information following the flowering periods in Colombia, Brazil, and Vietnam, world’s major producers.     

Quotas May Beat Taxes in a Global Emission Game

Economists have persistently argued that market-based instruments are better suited than command and control instruments (CAC) to achieve pollution abatement targets cost-effectively. However, this advice has not yet fallen on fertile soil. CAC is the predominant instrument in practical environmental policy. The paper attempts to give an explanation for this observation by analyzing two countries negotiating emission reductions in a world with typical institutional restrictions. Negotiations are assumed to be either on a uniform emission reduction quota or a uniform emission tax. Counterintuitively, it turns out that in such a second-best world an agreement under a cost-inefficient quota regime may be superior to an efficient tax agreement with respect to ecological and welfare criteria. Moreover, in contrast to a quota agreement, a tax agreement may not be feasible and stable if countries exhibit asymmetric cost-benefit structures.     

储备货币竞争与国际货币体系不稳定性

不兑现货币制度下,储备货币发行国具有巨大的政治经济利益,而承担的成本却很小,主要储备货币国具有增发货币以获得储备货币收益的内在冲动。随着欧元使用范围的扩大,欧元货币地位上升较快,形成了与美元的竞争态势。但现行国际货币体系缺乏对国际储备货币供给的约束,在现实背景下竞争不但未能阻止货币滥发,反而形成了世界性的流动性过剩。缺乏有效监管使国际短期资本流动频繁而剧烈,引起汇率大幅波动,国际货币体系更具不稳定性。     

North-South : The implications for multinational banking

International finance should be of great value to developing countries because their potential growth paths are ‘out of step’ with the world economy and because the gambles they must take to develop are much more diversifiable in the context of the world economy than locally. However, the actual benefits of North-South finance have been limited by an overreliance on non-specific bank credit with the inherent limitations and by errors in judgement by both borrowers and lenders. In fact, the current crisis threatens to reverse many of the earlier gains. While the current crisis is primarily the result of the world recession, the severity of its effects on lenders and borrowers reflects three key aspects of bank credits: (1) its perverse real repayment patterns, (2) its specific nature which implies that risks are transferred only through generalized non-performance with its attendant deadweight costs, and (3) its concentration in a small but critical segment of capital markets. These characteristics would be serious even with ideal behavior by lenders and borrowers, but they also can lend to inappropriate and possibly erratic behavior. Specific suggestion for restructuring the system of North-South finance are given including (1) smoothing repayment patterns, (2) increasing repayment flexibility, (3) increasing risk-bearing non-specific finance, (4) increasing non-recourse financing, and (5) increasing project-specific risk capital.     

世界性碳减排合作的出路

＂碳排放＂已成为人类生存环境的最大威胁。而＂碳排放＂具有的外部性特征,又使得＂碳减排＂变成一种博弈。造成这种局面的原因,首先是由于各国经济发展的差距,以及由此产生的环境效用不同;其次是因为各国都想在＂碳排放＂博弈中得到更多的利益。因此,要实现在世界各国间达成一致的＂碳减排＂行动目标,必须缩小世界各国发展的差距和形成更有权威的全球性治理结构;发达国家应在开放市场、转移技术、增加援助等方面表现得更为积极。     

Impact of legal institutions on IPO survival: A global perspective

Around the world, investors, practitioners, regulators and policy makers seek to understand whether, when and why recently listed stocks, initial public offerings (IPOs) are delisted rather than continue trading (survive). Using data on 7,627 IPOs issued during 2000–2008 across 32 countries, we explore the impact of the legal system on IPO survival. We find that IPOs in countries with better investor protections remain listed for longer. This suggests that better legal systems increase the net benefits companies derive from staying listed. We also provide evidence that better legal systems increase the effectiveness of IPO certification by venture capitalists, underwriters and auditors.     

Employment Quota System and Labour Market Outcomes of Individuals with Disabilities: Empirical Evidence from South Korea

To date, only a few studies have attempted to evaluate the effectiveness of disability employment quota systems using structural changes in policies. This study exploits the structural changes in South Korea's disability employment quota system that took place in 2004 and 2006 to expand the current disability policy evaluation literature. We separate the effect of these changes in the quota system into their effect on the probability of labour force participation and their effect on the probability of employment (after controlling for selection into the labour market). We also study the extent to which the changes – which included increasing the number of employers covered by the quota system, the number of jobs available to individuals with disabilities and the financial incentives for employing individuals with disabilities – have affected job satisfaction among individuals with disabilities. Our results suggest that the changes in the quota system may have increased labour force participation but have had a limited positive impact on the probability of employment among people with disabilities in South Korea. Further, compulsory hiring and expanded opportunities have not substantially affected the level of job satisfaction observed among employees with disabilities relative to their non‐disabled counterparts.     

Evaluación de la conversión a café orgánico usando la metodología de opciones reales

Since the deregulation of the coffee market in 1989, price crises are proof of the uncertainty and risk around coffee growers’ income, particularly for small producers who, in the case of Mexico, have taken action such as the conversion of their traditional crops into the organic production system which, besides the ecological priority, allows them to get a higher income than from conventional coffee. In this document we model as real investment options (RIO) the possibility of conversion from one system into the other one also including the feasibility of abandoning this strategic decision.     

On the individual optimality of economic integration

Which countries find it optimal to form an economic union? We emphasize the risk-sharing benefits of economic integration. Consider an endowment world economy model, where international financial markets are incomplete and contracts not enforceable. A union solves both frictions among member countries. We uncover conditions on initial incomes and net foreign assets of potential union members such that forming a union is welfare-improving over standing alone in the world economy. Consistently with evidence on economic integration, unions in our model occur (i) relatively infrequently, and (ii) emerge more likely among homogeneous countries, and (iii) rich countries.     

Financial Supervision: Integrated or Specialized?The case of Latin America and the Caribbean

This paper discusses the relative merits of the two approaches of financial regulation and supervision for the case of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). In doing so, it reviews the main arguments advanced in the specialized literature in pro and against of each approach. All the theoretical arguments are contrasted with available country experiences from around the world and discussed with a focus on the Latin American and Caribbean countries. A methodology to analyze the efficacy and the efficiency of each approach in meeting the main objectives of financial regulation is also provided. The paper concludes that in the present circumstances, the net benefits of adopting an integrated approach probably exceed the net benefits stemming from the adoption of a specialized approach for most of the countries in the region.     

Effects of Restraining Steel Exports from the Republic of Korea and Other Countries to the United States and the European Economic Community

In this article a model is developed to evaluate the impacton an exporting country of a restraint imposed on its exportby an importing economy in the context of a three-region modelof world trade in a single product. The welfare changes in anyof the three regions in the model and in the global economycan be evaluated. The model is applied to the restraints imposed on steel exportsfrom the Republic of Korea to the United States and the EuropeanEconomic Community (EEC). The United States and the EEC arefound to have incurred significant losses as a result of therestraints. The largest part of these losses are quota rentstransferred to Korea and the rest of the world. Under reasonableparameter assumptions, Korea and the rest of the world obtainnet gains from the quotas, because the resource misallocationcosts are smaller than the quota rents. The model is modified to analyze a tariff barrier rather thana quantitative restraint. It is found that an "equivalent" tariffon steel transforms Korea and the rest of the world from netgainers to net losers as a result of a restraint.     

坚持运用辩证唯物主义,深度参与会费比额谈判

习近平总书记在《求是》杂志2019年第1期发表重要文章《辩证唯物主义是中国共产党人的世界观和方法论》,强调要"更加自觉地坚持和运用辩证唯物主义世界观和方法论,增强辩证思维、战略思维能力,把各项工作做得更好",这为我们运用辩证唯物主义基本原理参与联合国会费比额谈判提供了科学指引.本文拟结合工作实践,探索坚持和运用辩证唯物主义这一中国共产党人的世界观和方法论,更好发扬斗争精神和增强斗争本领,推动深度参与联合国会费比额谈判,为国家争取更大利益,为积极参与全球治理体系改革和建设贡献力量.     

Protectionism and international banking : Sectorial efficiency, competitive structure and National policy

This paper deals with barriers to trade in services. More specifically, the paper deals with competition and its absence in the provision of international intermediation services by banks. Section 2 of the paper examines the substitutability of international trade and FDI (foreign direct investment) in the services sector as a basis for international competition. It also considers the overlap between commercial policy measures and regulations governing the entry and operations of foreign affiliates. Section 3 describes the types of restrictions imposed on foreign banks and evaluates their effects. Existing practices in some countries are outlined in the fourth section. The countries are the U.S., the U.K., Switzerland, Australia, Brazil and Taiwan. Section 5 evaluates competitive conditions in offshore banking centers, and compares them with conditions in onshore markets. The last section evaluates the costs and the benefits of an ‘open’ (free-trade) banking system. Such a system will tend to improve world welfare as well as the welfare of those countries who have a comparative advantage in international banking. The results are not clear with regard to the countries who have a comparative disadvantage in banking.     

IMF programs: Who is chosen and what are the effects?

IMF loans react to economic conditions but are also sensitive to political-economy variables. Loans tend to be larger and more frequent when a country has a bigger quota and more professional staff at the IMF and when a country is more connected politically and economically to the United States and major European countries. These results are of considerable interest for their own sake. More importantly for present purposes, the results provide instrumental variables for estimating the effects of IMF loan programs on economic growth and other variables. This instrumental estimation allows us to sort out the economic effects of the loan programs from the responses of IMF lending to economic conditions. The estimates show that a higher IMF loan-participation rate reduces economic growth. IMF lending does not have significant effects on investment, inflation, government consumption, and international openness. However, IMF loan participation has small negative effects on democracy and the rule of law. The reduction in the rule of law implies an additional, indirect channel whereby IMF lending reduces economic growth.     

Intergovernmental Fiscal Transfers and Local Incentives and Responses: The Case of Indonesia

Indonesian policymakers are convinced that a number of perverse incentives are embedded in their system of intergovernmental transfers. Officials in countries throughout the developing world have similar views about their own intergovernmental frameworks. In Indonesia, perverse incentives are thought to negatively influence a wide range of local government fiscal behaviours, including as regards own‐source revenues, spending and savings. An empirical analysis of the local government response to transfers, however, offers only mixed support for the existence and strength of the presumed incentives. Overall, the findings in this paper highlight the benefits to central governments of rigorously examining assumed perverse incentives in their intergovernmental frameworks before embarking on attempts to expunge them.     

Firm size,sovereign governance,and value creation: Evidence from the acquirer size effect

This paper examines the relationship between acquirer size, sovereign governance, and value-creation in acquisitions. Prior literature indicates that larger acquirers' acquisitions create less shareholder wealth in developed markets, arising primarily from agency and entrenchment problems. However, in weak governance environments, size might have off-setting benefits, including increased market power and political connections. We use a sample of 17,647 takeovers from 45 countries to examine the acquirer size effect around the world. We find that the acquirer size effect exists internationally, but is smaller in magnitude in weak governance markets. Compared with larger acquirers in strong governance countries, large acquirers in weak governance countries do takeovers that generate higher stock-returns and increase post-takeover operating performance. Their deals are also more likely to be friendly, and take less time to complete. We also find that the benefits of larger acquirer size increase with the importance of political connections in the acquirer's country. The results suggest that country-governance can moderate the impact of corporate characteristics, such as corporate size.     

商业银行综合经营模式与风险预警机制研究

综合经营是一把＂双刃剑＂,在为商业银行带来协同效应、规模经济、范围经济等益处的同时,也为风险的系统性传递提供了土壤。因此在商业银行综合经营的大趋势下,构建风险预警机制成为一个首要核心问题。本文在研究发达国家商业银行综合经营模式以及我国商业银行综合经营发展现状与展望的基础上,从系统性风险和非系统性风险角度构建了商业银行综合经营的风险预警机制。     

Does the tea market require a futures contract? Evidence from the Sri Lankan tea market

Tea is one of the most popular beverages in the world. Its consumption exceeds the consumption of milk, coffee and orange juice. Despite its importance, tea has not been considered a commodity on financial markets and there is still no futures contract on tea. This study adds to the current literature by providing an overview of the development of the world’s oldest and largely unknown tea market. In addition, this study examines the issue of whether it is feasible to introduce a tea futures contract that would be advantageous for tea market participants. In conclusion, this analysis indicates that introducing a successful tea futures contract is viable but challenging under the existing market structure.     

Time-Varying Expected Returns in International Bond Markets

This article examines the predictable variation in long-maturity government bond returns in six countries. A small set of global instruments can forecast 4 to 12 percent of monthly variation in excess bond returns. The predictable variation is statistically and economically significant. Moreover, expected excess bond returns are highly correlated across countries. A model with one global risk factor and constant conditional betas can explain international bond return predictability if the risk factor is proxied by the world excess bond return, but not if it is proxied by the world excess stock return.     

多层次资本市场构想

从世界上许多经济发展比较成功的国家的经验教训看,经济结构、产业结构的调整本质上是一个资本供给制度的改革和调整问题,也就是构建有利于资本向高效配置方向流动的市场平台,这一任务不能依赖间接融资体系,而只能依靠发达、完善的资本市场体系。因此,建立多层次的资本市场才能提高金融资源的利用效率。