The timing of mergers along the production chain,capital structure,and risk dynamics

I demonstrate that the timing of vertical mergers is generally dependent on industry characteristics. My predictions are consistent with empirically observed patterns of vertical mergers. I show that merger activity during economic upturns tends to be motivated by operating efficiencies, while merger activity during economic downturns tends to occur as a means of keeping production chain operational. Mergers allow firms to capture synergies and improve efficiencies in order to survive economic contractions. The pricing framework implies that a vertical merger decision usually reduces risk during two different economic states.     

Real options under a double exponential jump-diffusion model with regime switching and partial information

We consider the irreversible investment in a project which generates a cash flow following a double exponential jump-diffusion process and its expected return is governed by a continuous-time two-state Markov chain. If the expected return is observable, we present explicit expressions for the pricing and timing of the option to invest. With partial information, i.e. if the expected return is unobservable, we provide an explicit project value and an integral-differential equation for the pricing and timing of the option. We provide a method to measure the information value, i.e. the difference between the option values under the two different cases. We present numerical solutions by finite difference methods. By numerical analysis, we find that: (i) the higher the jump intensity, the later the option to invest is exercised, but its effect on the option value is ambiguous; (ii) the option value increases with the belief in a boom economy; (iii) if investors are more uncertain about the economic environment, information is more valuable; (iv) the more likely the transition from boom to recession, the lower the value of the option; (v) the bigger the dispersion of the expected return, the higher the information value; (vi) a higher cash flow volatility induces a lower information value.     

Binomial basis for linear information dynamics: real options, dividends and the valuation of equity

Analytical research has confirmed that real options give rise to the kind of nonlinearities observed in practice between equity prices and the figures appearing on corporate financial statements. We develop these real option values in terms of a quasi 'supply-side' model of linear information dynamics based on simple discrete time binomial filtration processes. Our analysis shows that the linear models that pervade the empirical (and analytical) work of the area, will almost certainly suffer from an omitted variables problem. Parameter estimation will then be inconsistent and inefficient.     

Real (adaptation) options and the valuation of equity: some empirical evidence

Data from 1,374 firms across four broad industrial groupings are used to assess the contribution that real (adaptation) options make to overall equity values. The analysis indicates that real (adaptation) options make a significant contribution to the equity value of firms with a market to book ratio (of equity) of around unity or less. As the market to book ratio grows beyond this level, however, the contribution made by real (adaptation) options decays quickly away and equity values are mainly comprised of the present value of the dividends that firms are expected to pay. This means that for around one in every five of the firms in our sample real (adaptation) options make a significant contribution to overall equity value. Thus, while linear equity valuation models would seem to be appropriate for the substantial majority of firms on which our sample is based, there is a sizeable minority of firms where real (adaptation) options have a significant impact on equity values. For this latter group of firms there will be a non-linear relationship between equity value and its determining variables. This has important implications for the regression procedures that are applied in this area of accounting research.     

Incorporating real-options analysis into the accounting curriculum

In this paper, we argue that accounting curricula should be expanded to cover the topic of real options. Our argument relies on reference to the [American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) (1999) (Core Competency Framework, New York, NY: AICPA <http://ceae.aicpa.org/Resources/Education+and+Curriculum+Development/Core+Competency+Framework+and+Educational+Competency+Assessment+Web+Site/> Accessed 21.08.08], the framework for curriculum change espoused by [Arya, A., Fellingham, J. C., & Schroeder, D. A. (2003). An academic curriculum proposal. Issues in Accounting Education, 18(1) 29–35], a global study of core competencies for management accountants [International Federation of Accountants (IFAC), (2002). Competency profiles for management accounting practice and practitioners. New York, NY: International Federation of Accountants], a global capital-budgeting “best practices statement” [International Federation of Accountants (IFAC), (2008). International good practice guidance: Project appraisal using discounted cash flow. New York, NY: International Federation of Accountants], current specifications of the CMA exam [Institute of Management Accountants (IMA), (2008). Certified management accountant (CMA) learning outcome statements (effective 07/01/04), updated 07/2008. <http://www.imanet.org/pdf/CMA%20%20LOS.pdf> Accessed 29.10.08.], and elements of the Albrecht and Sack report [Albrecht, W. S., & Sack, R. J. (2000). Accounting education: Charting the course through a perilous future. Accounting education series, Vol. 16. Sarasota, FL: American Accounting Association]. We make special reference to the linkage of the topic of real options to two broad educational goals: decision-modeling and risk analysis. Existing resources that accounting faculty can use to incorporate real options into the curriculum are limited. As a response, we provide an extended example that accounting educators can use to cover the topic of real options. This example uses a set of binomial trees (one for cash inflows and another for cash outflows). The step-by-step approach presented in this paper allows students without a technical/mathematical background to extend discounted-cash-flow (DCF) decision models (e.g., NPV) to incorporate real options that are embedded in proposed investment projects.     

Do Tighter Restrictions on Density Retard Development?

Williams (1991) builds a real-options model to investigate the timing and the scale decisions of property development. Williams asserts that tighter restrictions on density retard development. This article finds that there are some typos in Williams’s article such that his assertion does not hold in general. In particular, his assertion will not hold as long as the density restrictions are not set too low relative to the density level that would be chosen by landowners in the absence of any regulation.     

Analyzing firms' strategic investment decisions in a real options' framework

Within the context of investment under uncertainty, the real options literature has led to models that capture primarily the time to wait flexibility of monopolistic corporations' investment decision. In this paper, we propose an approach which relies on barrier options to model production and/or sales delocalization flexibility for multinational enterprises making decisions under exchange rate uncertainty. We then extend the model by introducing game theoretic considerations to show how the information set and the competitive structure of the market may lead firms to act strategically and exercise their delocalization options preemptively at an endogenously fixed exchange rate barrier.     

Stickiness of Rental Rates and Developers’ Option Exercise Strategies

In this study we incorporate sticky rents into a real options model to rationalize the widely documented overbuilding puzzle in real estate markets. Given the assumption that developers’ objective function is to maximize total revenue by selecting an optimal occupancy level, our model provides a better explanation of the phenomena we observed in the real world than the traditional market-clearance based real options models. We also show that developers’ exercise strategies can be affected by the size and the type of property markets. In other words, developers’ exercise strategies could differ among markets and under different conditions. Submitted to Cambridge—Maastricht 2005 Symposium.     

A note on risk aversion and herd behavior in financial markets

We show that differences in market participants risk aversion can generate herd behavior in stock markets where assets are traded sequentially. This in turn prevents learning of market’s fundamentals. These results are obtained without introducing multidimensional uncertainty or transaction cost. JEL Classification G1 · G14 · C11 · D82     

Taxation on Land Value and Development When There Are Negative Externalities from Development

This article employs a real options framework to investigate the design of taxation on both land value and development in a competitive real estate market. We assume that developed properties reduce open space, and thereby harm urban residents. However, ignoring this negative externality, landowners will develop properties sooner than is socially optimal. A regulator can correct this tendency by imposing a positive tax on development or a negative tax on land value. Alternatively, the regulator can implement both instruments simultaneously, in which case an increase in the tax rate on development will be accompanied by an increase in the tax rate on land value, and vice versa.

The market premium for the option to close: evidence from Australian gold mining firms

This study shows the market value of gold mining firms contains a premium for the option to close. The sample uses 41 gold mining producers listed on the Australian Stock Exchange from 1987 to 2013. The premium of the market price over the present value of cash flows is isolated and a pooled cross‐sectional regression tests the degree of association between that premium and theoretical option premiums. The results show market prices incorporate a premium reflecting the option to temporarily close operations. The magnitude of the option premium to close depends on whether firms are out or in the money options.     

Can real options explain financing behavior?

Trade-off models commonly invoke financial transaction costs in order to explain observed leverage fluctuations. This paper offers an alternative explanation based on real options. The model is frictionless on the financing side but incorporates irreversibility and fixed costs of investment. Results obtained from simulating the model are broadly consistent with observed financing patterns. Market leverage ratios are negatively related to profitability, mean-reverting, and depend on past stock returns. The gradual and lumpy leverage adjustments can occur in the absence of financial transaction costs. This evidence shows that incorporating real frictions into structural models increases their explanatory power.     

Office Construction in Singapore and Hong Kong: Testing Real Option Implications

We advance the real-option-based empirical analysis of commercial real estate investment in three respects. First, we test several real option implications for real estate construction that have not been examined in the commercial real estate investment literature. In particular and in line with the predictions of real option models, we show that the effects of real interest rate and the expected demand growth on hurdle rent become more negative when the market volatility is greater. Second, we use a cointegrating vector of office employment and office stock to provide a better control of the demand for new construction than traditional indicators based on real estate prices and vacancy rates. Third, whereas the existing studies focus on the U.S. commercial real estate markets, we study two major office markets in Asia, namely Singapore and Hong Kong. We rely on the local stock market in the two city states to derive forward-looking measures of office demand growth expectations.

Is backdating executive stock options always costly to shareholders?

We use a binomial model to investigate the cost to shareholders of backdating employee stock option (ESO) grants to award in‐the‐money rather than at‐the‐money options to a manager. When the expected return of the stock underlying an ESO is sufficiently close to the risk‐free rate, a backdating arrangement can always be structured to simultaneously improve shareholders’ wealth and the manager's utility. The smaller the manager's non‐option wealth, personal income tax rate or risk tolerance, the more likely a backdating arrangement can be welfare improving.