Contagion and efficiency

We consider a population of agents, either finite or countably infinite, located on an arbitrary network. Agents interact directly only with their immediate neighbors, but are able to observe the behavior of (some) other agents beyond their interaction neighborhood, and learn from that behavior by imitating successful actions. If interactions are not “too global” but information is fluid enough, we show that the efficient action is the only one which can spread contagiously to the whole population from an initially small, finite subgroup. This result holds even in the presence of an alternative, -dominant action.     

Noisy Contagion Without Mutation

In a local interaction game agents play an identical stage game against their neighbours over time. For nearest neighbour interaction, it is established that, starting from a random initial configuration in which each agent has a positive probability of playing the risk dominant strategy, a sufficiently large population coordinates in the long-run on the risk dominant equilibrium almost surely. Our result improves on Blume (1995), Ellison (2000), and Morris (2000) by showing that the risk dominant equilibrium spreads to the entire population in a two dimensional lattice and without the help of mutation, as long as there is some randomness in the initial configuration.     

金融生态与银行危机传导

本文运用生态学原理与方法,从金融生态的基本特征入手,分析了银行危机传导机制,并提出了防范银行危机传导的对策措施。     

Assessing Interbank Contagion Risk Using Consolidated Data

This study uses the maximum entropy method to estimate bilateral interbank exposure in order to simulate the contagion effect in the UK interbank market using consolidated data. Almost all existing studies use unconsolidated data, which could significantly distort the real contagion effect as the banking sectors of most countries are highly concentrated with most large banks owning a significant number of subsidiaries. The results show that exposure is much more severe using consolidated data, implying that some money center banks or systematically important banks were underestimated by the contagion model before the 2008 financial crisis.     

Interdependence and Contagion in Global Asset Markets

We assess interdependence and contagion across three asset classes (bonds, stocks, and currencies) for over 60 economies over the period 1998–2011. Using a global VAR, we test for changes in the transmission mechanism—both within and cross‐market changes—during periods of global financial turbulence. Contagion effects within‐market are notable in Latin American and Emerging Asian equities. In addition, in times of financial crisis, we find that US equity shocks lead to risk aversion by investors in equities and currencies globally and in some emerging market bonds. Euro area shocks are significant mainly within the bond market.     

货币危机传染的投资组合模型

传染是近10年货币危机中的一个常见现象。通过构造具有多种风险资产的投资组合模型,可解释造成货币危机传染的多种原因;共同冲击、期望收益率变化、不确定性的增加、风险厌恶程度的变化以及资本损失等,都可以通过影响国际投资者的投资组合而造成货币危机的传染。     

Contagion or Inductance? Crisis 1997 Reconsidered

We provide the simple example of a refinancing game with incomplete information, where the lack of transparency is both necessary and sufficient for the propagation of local financial distress across disjoint financial networks. JEL Classification Number: F4.
And the truth shall make you free. John 8: 32     

Evidence for Financial Contagion in Endogenous Volatile Periods

The objective of this study is to analyze cross‐border contagious dynamics in both foreign exchange markets and stock exchange markets. Propagation is analyzed with respect to the transmission of excessive volatility that is endogenously determined. The contagion process is discussed in the context of financial systems, foreign direct investments and trade. Implementing a vector autoregressive‐multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (VAR‐MGARCH) model, we show that country‐specific turbulence in financial markets is able to create unanticipated financial contagion across countries. Diversified trade and financial relations decrease the risk of exposure to contagion from external markets. The world's largest economies, however, play a price‐setter role, and diversification is of secondary importance. Asymmetric transmission of the empirically predicted contagion prevails in the latter case.     

中美股市联动的经济基础和传染现象

本文从因果关系的角度研究了中美股市之间的引导关系和动态特征,并通过设计格兰杰-F检验考察了股市联动的经济基础和传染现象。研究发现：2007年以后,美国股市对中国股市具有显著的引导关系;并且,美国股市的石油化工、原材料和金融行业对A股市场的相关行业具有独立于市场指数之外的引导关系;美国股市对中国股市的引导关系通常能够被经济基础所解释,但在2008年10月至2009年1月期间,美、中股市之间发生了传染现象。     

基于金融体系视角的银行危机的传导机制分析

世界各国的金融体系可简单的分为市场主导型金融体系和银行主导型金融体系，银行在金融体系中为全社会提供流动性、管理支付清算，银行的稳定对一国金融体系的稳定至关重要。传统的银行危机传导理论并不能有效解释近期银行危机传染事件。运用三期模型比较了不同金融体系下银行挤兑在区域间的传导条件，对发展中国家、转轨国家频繁爆发的银行危机的原因给出体系层面解释。     

银行同业及投资资产关联的风险传染

文章基于复杂网络关联影响模型,对银行倒闭引发银行间借贷资产损失和关联投资产品价格下降引发关联银行损失的现象进行了研究,报告了银行系统风险有来自银行间借贷的直接风险也有来自银行投资关联的间接风险的现状,通过采用建立银行间借贷网络和银行投资关联网络进行冲击传染的数值模拟方法,结果发现通过银行间资产损失传染引发系统性风险的影响因素主要是银行间资产与银行资本金的比例,还有银行间的借贷网络结构.提出市场投资种类和银行持有资产在一定的小范围内,才会引发银行投资资产的关联传染的实际现象,研究结果指出银行投资资产损失关联传染和银行间借贷损失传染叠加,会使风险冲击加强,银行倒闭传染加速,很容易形成银行系统性风险.     

极端金融风险的有效测度与非线性传染

本文采用预期损失指标(expected shortfall, ES)来衡量中国金融市场及各金融部门的极端风险,并结合回溯测试方法进行后验分析,发现ES指标能够对极端风险进行有效测度。在此基础上,本文基于非线性的研究视角,进一步考察了各部门间极端风险的非线性特征与金融风险的跨部门传染效应,并应用相关的网络关联指标,对金融系统整体以及单个金融机构的极端风险的非线性关联展开分析,研究发现房地产等部门是中国金融风险的重要来源。此外,本文还从动态分析的角度考察金融风险跨部门传染的渐进演变。最后,进一步引入中国经济政策不确定性指数及其细化指标,并结合最新发展的混频因果检验等方法,深入考察政策不确定性与极端金融风险的联动效应,研究发现中国股市整体金融风险与经济政策不确定性之间存在双向因果关系。在此基础上,对完善金融风险防范体系及其监管机制提出了若干建议,从而使得本研究具有重要的学术价值与现实意义。     

理性政府下的货币危机及其传染

在理性政府的假设下，货币危机均衡具有多重性、唯一性以及传染性。在货币投机攻击成本和收益固定的模型中，经济基本面处于危机区时，基本面的不确定性并不能消除多重均衡；当货币投机攻击成本和收益都与经济基本面相关时，不管是静态模型还是动态模型，货币危机的均衡都是唯一的。而当其他国家的货币贬值时，本国维持固定汇率的收益和放弃固定汇率的信誉损失均下降，致使本国政府倾向于放弃固定汇率。     

Contagion Through Interactive Production and Dynamic Effects of Trade

This paper produces three main results in a two-country model where learning is generated through interactive production. First, it endogenizes the incidence of international spillovers and consequently, integrates the convergence and divergence literature of endogenous growth. Second, it qualifies the notion of 'the advantage of backwardness' and shows that a large technology gap may reduce cross-country spillovers. Third, it points out that besides the already recognized 'contagion effect,' trade also promotes technological progress in the LDC through a 'complementarity effect' that shifts the resources in the LDC toward the production of more sophisticated intermediate products.     

金融网络及传染对金融稳定的影响

本文主要介绍目前利用金融网络解决金融传染问题的相关研究方法和研究成果.笔者在简单回顾了金融网络的结构特征、描述性指标及几大典型结构之后,从微观角度分析了最优金融网络所具有的一些共同特征,从宏观角度分析了现实金融网络的拓扑结构,研究了网络结构在金融传染过程中所起到的作用,并基于此从金融网络的角度提出了提高金融体系稳定性的相关措施,为预防危机的传染提供了政策参考.     

Volatility Spillovers and Contagion from Mature to Emerging Stock Markets

This paper models volatility spillovers from mature to emerging stock markets, tests for changes in the transmission mechanism during turbulences in mature markets, and examines the implications for conditional correlations between mature and emerging market returns. Tri‐variate GARCH–BEKK models of returns in mature, regional emerging, and local emerging markets are estimated for 41 emerging market economies (EMEs). Wald tests suggest that mature market volatility affects conditional variances in many emerging markets. Moreover, spillover parameters change during turbulent episodes. In the majority of the sample EMEs, conditional correlations between local and mature markets increase during these episodes. While conditional variances in local markets rise as well, volatility in mature markets rises more, and this shift is the main factor behind the increase in conditional correlations. With few exceptions, conditional beta coefficients between mature and emerging markets tend to be unchanged or lower during turbulences.     

The New Economy Creed: A Case of Thought Contagion

This paper looks at recent market-related events and the contention, gradually gaining credence in business circles, that we have entered an age of a New Economy. According to the New Economy view, the present upswing in the stock market will, at least in the U.S., last over the long run. This is an important issue on which hinge many important public and private decisions. Yet only special interest groups investigate it.

We attempt to take a dispassionate look at the New Economy thesis, so as to provide an explanation for some of the strange phenomena associated with this decade's fixation on the stock market and financial rationality. We analyse the paradox of the belief in a one-way swing of the economic pendulum in terms of market fundamentals as well as investor sentiment, or potential irrationality. Our analysis confirms the early insights of Keynes and more recent views of Black. We conclude by formulating a few caveats for the true believers of this emerging "New Economy creed" as well as for its cynical detractors.     

Chinese and European Financial Systems: Instability Drivers and Contagion Channels

This paper identifies systemic risk levels in the Eurozone and China. We first analyze the political and macro-financial factors underlying potential financial instability in both currency areas. Then, we examine the impact of a possible breakup of the Eurozone on the Chinese financial system and the risk of redenomination of Chinese assets expressed in Euros. Finally, considering the increasing credit gap in the Chinese economy and the enduring political instability in several Eurozone countries, we warn against a possible opening of contagion channels between China and Europe.     

Contagion of self-fulfilling financial crises due to diversification of investment portfolios

We look at two countries that have independent fundamentals, but share the same group of investors. Each country might face a self-fulfilling crisis: Agents withdrawing their investments fearing that others will. A crisis in one country reduces agents’ wealth. This makes them more averse to the strategic risk associated with the unknown behavior of other agents in the second country, increasing their incentive to withdraw their investments. Consequently, the probability of a crisis there increases. This generates a positive correlation between the returns in the two countries. Since diversification affects returns in our model, its welfare implications are non-trivial.