Time Varying Beta Risk: An Analysis of Alternative Modelling Techniques

This paper investigates the performance of three different approaches to modelling time-variation in conditional asset betas: GARCH models, the extended market model of Schwert and Seguin (1990) and the Kalman Filter algorithm. Using daily UK industry returns, we find the simple market model beta to be as efficient as the more complicated GARCH type models. However, the Kalman Filter algorithm incorporating a random walk parameterisation dominates all other models under the mean-square error criterion. Finally, we provide strong evidence that a combination of the methods under investigation may lead to considerably more powerful estimators of the time-variation in conditional beta.     

The Dividend Pricing Model: New Evidence from the Korean Housing Market

It is generally conceded that dividend pricing models are poor predictors of asset prices. This finding is sometimes attributed to excess volatility or to a dividend process manipulated by firm managers. In this paper, we present rather powerful panel tests of the dividend pricing relation using a unique data set in which dividends are set by market forces independent of managers' preferences. We rely on observations on the market for condominium dwellings in Korea—perhaps the only market in which information on dividends and prices is publicly and continuously available to consumers and investors. We extend the “dividend-price ratio model” to panels of housing returns and rents differentiated by type and location. We find broad support for the dividend pricing model during periods both before and after the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997–1998, suggesting that the market for housing assets in Korea has been remarkably efficient. Previous versions of this paper were presented at the Hong Kong-Singapore International Real Estate Research Symposium, August 2004, Hong Kong and the meeting of the Hong Kong Economic Association, January 2005. We are grateful for the comments of Ashok Bardhan, Yuming Fu, Chinmoy Ghosh, Lok Sang Ho, Charles Ka Yui Leung, Sau Kim Lum and Seow Eng Ong. Son's research was supported by the Konkuk University and Hwang's research was supported by the National University of Singapore.     

Housing Cooperatives in Sweden: The Effects of Financial Deregulation

The article focuses on transaction prices for recent movers in cooperative dwellings during the period 1980–1993. Prices increased by 80% in real terms up to 1990, then fell by 35% between 1990 and 1993. A hedonic analysis is used to analyze the impact of changmg macroeconomics and financial deregulation. The financial deregulation, which took place in 1985, seems to have caused increased loan-to-value ratios on the cooperative housing market. Using 1983 as a point of reference, a Tobit analysis reveals that the average LTV ratio in 1990 was 290% higher that year. After 1990 the LTV ratio fell by 45% due to credit constraints.     

The Conditional Distribution of Real Estate Returns: Are Higher Moments Time Varying?

Previous research has shown that the returns on individual properties and listed property securities are skewed. This claim is investigated in the context of listed U.K. property companies and U.S. REITs. In particular, the shape of the conditional distribution of total monthly returns is examined for a group of 20 U.K. companies and 20 REITs. Also investigated is the claim that the skewness found in property returns varies over time. Using the model of Hansen (1994), it is found that while a large portion of property security returns in the sample do exhibit skewness in the conditional distribution only in a few instances is there time variation in the skewness parameter. There is little evidence to suggest that skewness is associated with the economic cycle.     

The Sensitivity of Tests of Asset Pricing Models to the IID-Normal Assumption: Contemporaneous Evidence from the US and UK Stock Markets

Standard tests of asset pricing models are based on the iid -normal assumption. We compare standard test results with those obtained from procedures that do not require iid -normality. Analysing unconditional and conditional asset pricing models, we find that the use of tests that consider departures from the iid -normal assumption affect probability values, sometimes by a considerable amount but that test outcomes are not affected. The results also suggest that issues surrounding the testing of joint hypothesis influence probability values and that the use of appropriate tests may be more important when analysing US data than when analysing UK data.