改进市场比较法中区域因素修正的GIS方法

研究目的:用GIS改进不动产估价市场比较法中区域因素修正的方法,设计区域因素自动修正的可视化系统.研究方法:文献分析,GIS,MapObjects,Visual Basic.研究结果:(1)将区域因素归类为点、线、面状三类空间地理特征;(2)设计并编制了区域因素修正可视化自动系统.研究结论:从改进市场比较法中待估和可比不动产特征地物的选择和范围确定人手,利用缓冲区和距离查询的GIS方法,改进传统的估价方法,可以实现区域因素修正的量化、自动化和可视化.     

市场垄断程度对社会福利的影响——基于价格不确定性

采用社会福利和价格不确定的有关理论与方法,研究了非完全竞争市场的垄断程度对社会福利所造成的影响。研究结果表明:垄断程度给社会福利带来负面影响,并且随着垄断程度的提高,负面影响日显,与市场垄断程度呈负相关。在一定条件下,即使考虑价格不确定性因素,社会福利也是随垄断程度的增大而渐减。     

基准地价在评估应用中应注意的几个问题

我国目前土地使用权价格评估,主要有两大思路：一是利用基准地价的成果,通过对一定区域内影响地价因素的分析,进行相关条件的修正,测算土地价格,即基准地价系数修订法;一是通过搜集相关资料运用适当的地价评估方法（如收益还原法、成本法、剩余法、市场比较法等）测...     

关于林地资产价值量化问题的探讨

林地价值量化是当前困扰森林资源资产化管理的难点之一。作者在大量调查研究的基础上运用机会成本概念:采取收益现值法确定林地基准价格,用比较法测定目的林地价格修正系数,最后综合确定出目的林地价格。     

经济政策不确定性对农产品产业链的价格冲击研究——基于供需双方“议价能力”视角

近年来,我国农产品价格波动剧烈,出现供需脱节等新情况,经济政策不确定性成为价格波动冲击的重要因素。本文在蛛网模型的基础上加入不确定因素寻求其对生产周期较长的农产品价格波动的冲击规律,利用TVP-FAVAR实证模型研究经济政策不确定性对农产品价格冲击的纵向传导机制及各环节的反映特征。研究发现:经济政策不确定性对产业链不同环节及不同时期的冲击均存在差异性;经济因素比政策因素不确定性对农产品产业链的价格冲击更大;产业链中势力较强的批发商更容易受经济政策不确定性的影响,成为整个产业链价格波动的"放大器"。政府应采取合理宣传和引导,预防和疏导经济政策不确定性对市场存在的投机行为和恐慌情绪,加强对农产品批发市场的管控及农业流通组织建设等。     

互联网企业价值评估方法改进研究

互联网企业属于"新经济"企业,与传统企业相比,互联网企业在投资、筹资以及营运等方面都存在极大的风险性和不确定性。此外,除了偿债能力、盈利能力等传统财务指标外,互联网企业的价值评估还受到该行业自身特点和所面临的市场风险等因素的影响。针对互联网企业的特殊情况,对传统企业的价值评估方法存在的局限性进行分析,提出了通过引入非财务指标、企业生命周期理论、实物期权法来完善企业估值,为互联网企业价值评估提供更可靠的依据的建议。     

“知乎”IPO破发现象思考

本文以互联网企业“知乎”为例,通过使用贴合行业估值特点的DEVA估值模型为基础,结合公司特征进行修正,选取单位初始投资成本、市场占有率、活跃用户数量等非财务指标,对上市前的企业价值进行评估,进而分析IPO首日破发现象,挖掘背后存在的问题。研究得出：企业估值结果与知乎首日破发后的市值误差率较低,估值结果具有参考价值,说明股票IPO发行定价被高估,首日破发现象属于企业市场价值自我修正的表现。通过企业估值这一全新视角,拓宽企业IPO破发现象影响路径分析的角度,为互联网企业价值评估提供新的思路。     

森林公园景观资产评估市场比较法初探

本文在分析森林公园景观资产特性基本属性的基础上 ,根据市场比较法的基本原理 ,将景观质量调整因素细分为景观质量调整系数和景观经济地理指数 ,从而针对性地解决了景观资产中景观质量调整因素的确定问题 ,文章首次将市场比较法应用于森林公园景观资产的评估中来 ,并给出了部分应用实例 ,为丰富森林公园景观资产评估方法做出了有益的探讨     

从市场角度论成本法评估

在实际工作中,对同一宗房地产一般要采用两种不同的评估方法进行评估,即市场比较法和成本法。但在实际评估过程中,两种评估方法得出的评估结果是不同的,有时差异还较大。两种评估结果为什么不一样?笔者认为原因之一是运用成本分析法进行房地产评估缺少了市场的因素。1.成本法的评估结果低于房地产市场价格。一般出现在商业因素比较大的区域,如商业繁华地段的沿街密集商业房。该种房地产特点就是容积率较大,土地利用率较好,市场交易信息很多。房地产的价格主要由市场因素形成的,房地产的成本对房地产的价格影响显得不重要。下面就成本法的公…     

生猪价格预期对仔猪价格形成的动态影响分析——基于行为经济学的视角

文章运用行为经济学中的有限理性预期理论和前景理论,在对养殖者行为理论分析的基础上,建立了生猪价格预期与仔猪价格形成的非对称关系动态模型,并利用我国养猪业数据进行了实证检验。研究结论为:养殖者的生猪价格预期具有有限理性的特征,是基于近期的生猪价格形成的,对仔猪价格波动具有显著的正向影响。生猪价格预期对仔猪价格波动具有动态性和非对称性。当生猪价格预期高于参考基准点时,养殖者对仔猪价值估值的增加程度,要大于生猪价格预期低于参考基准点时对仔猪价值估值的降低程度。     

The impact of water price uncertainty on the adoption of precision irrigation systems

We examine whether a firm is more or less likely to adopt precision technology when input prices are stochastic. The results are important to determining whether programs and contracts that reduce input price uncertainty may deter the adoption of conservation practices. An economic model of the technology adoption decision shows that the net effect of input price risk is ambiguous and depends on several factors including the shutdown effect, the mean price effect, the precision expansion effect, and the risk aversion effect. An empirical implementation of the model relies on data on water price and irrigation technology adoption observed in a California irrigation district over the period 1999–2002. The results show that a stable input price increases the adoption of precision technology, but the impact depends on crop choice and land quality characteristics.     

基于两次收敛模型的煤炭产业安全评价指标权重的确定

在对煤炭产业安全评价的过程中,指标权重的确定是决定评价结果是否科学的关键.本文利用三角可调模糊数调查专家意见,有效避免了层次分析法一致性检验的问题;应用聚类分析原理对群体专家决策进行两次收敛:第一次收敛解决了异常值的问题,尽可能降低了专家意见的随意性和主观性.第二次收敛利用相似系数作为权值对经筛选后的专家权重意见进行加...     

Investment planning under uncertainty and flexibility: the case of a purchasable sales contract*

Investment decisions are not only characterised by irreversibility and uncertainty but also by flexibility with regard to the timing of the investment. This paper describes how stochastic simulation can be successfully integrated into a backward recursive programming approach in the context of flexible investment planning. We apply this hybrid approach to a marketing question from primary production which can be viewed as an investment problem: should grain farmers purchase sales contracts which guarantee fixed product prices over the next 10 years? The model results support the conclusion from dynamic investment theory that it is essential to take simultaneously account of uncertainty and flexibility.     

Hedonic pricing and the spatial structure of housing data – an application to Berlin

Housing prices are largely determined by physical location. By applying the outsample prediction accuracy of rental prices as evaluation criteria, we examine whether the choice of the hedonic model additionally depends on the spatial structure of housing data, i.e. accounting for locational effects by either district fixed effects or spatial econometric modelling. Our results show that a generalised spatio-temporal model outperforms a district fixed effects model only if the spatial density – the weighted mean distance to nearest neighbours – is relatively small. Moreover, we use the required density thresholds to deduce a pseudo indifference curve, thereby showing that the ratio of the weighted spatial distance-to-the mean district diameter increases with the mean sample size per district. This emphasises the role of data structure and district choices for model selection. Differences in data can thereby serve as an explanation for contradictory findings in literature, whether spatial econometric methods or simple district fixed effects are used.     

Forestry in the Republic of Ireland: Government policy,grant incentives and carbon sequestration value

Recent decades have seen a rapid increase in the area of privately owned forest plantations in Ireland. This has been largely driven by grant aid and annual premium payments from the government and the European Union. These forests are significant carbon sinks and as such are delivering added benefit to the country by contributing to greenhouse gas reductions under the Kyoto Protocol.The direct impact of government subvention on the net present value (NPV) for a defined forestry plantation is investigated. The added value of carbon sequestration to forestry investment is also examined using the Forestry Commission (Great Britain) carbon model. Extending the typical assumption of a constant carbon price for project appraisal purposes, this paper allows carbon prices to evolve randomly according to a flexible stochastic price process. The model chosen is an extended mean-reverting jump-diffusion with the flexibility to capture the higher order statistical features (i.e. skewness and kurtosis) of the carbon markets. This allows for an analysis of the risk and uncertainty around the NPV from exposure to stochastic carbon prices. It is shown that government grants and annual premiums for afforestation significantly improve the NPV on forestry investment. Carbon sequestration is shown to add further value.     

Market Emergence and Transition: Arbitrage, Transaction Costs, and Autarky in China's Grain Markets

Using trimonthly Chinese provincial grain prices from 1988 to 1995, we estimate a parity-bounds model of interregional trade for four subperiods to characterize how multiple aspects of market performance change during the process of economic transition. For each period, we estimate the extent to which arbitrage opportunities are realized by traders, the transaction costs between location pairs, and the likelihood that regions do not trade. Trade restrictions cannot explain the pattern of uneven market development over time. Infrastructure bottlenecks, managerial incentive reforms, and production specialization policies, all were likely important factors affecting market performance.     

The effect of the Canada–China canola trade dispute on canola prices

In March 2019, China revoked the canola export licenses of two major Canadian exporters. We estimate the impact of these restrictions on Canadian canola prices. Using a vector error correction model to generate counterfactual prices, we estimate that between March 2019 and February 2020 canola prices were 3.6% lower than would have been expected in the absence of the import restrictions. We discuss the implications of our finding for both the ongoing negotiations between Canada and China and producer support in Canada.     

信息质量、交易成本与农户的销售价格——基于海南、云南466个橡胶种植户的调研数据

利用466个农户的调查数据,以农户行为理论为支撑,研究信息质量、交易成本、农户特征对农户所获得销售价格的影响。研究结果表明:信息质量、生产专业化程度的提高以及高水平的橡胶收入有助于农户获得更高的价格;议价能力、组织化程度与销售价格呈现负相关,销售产品形式、交易对象的选择会在一定程度上影响销售价格;交易环境的熟识度、交易距离的远近以及农户受教育程度对农户所能获得价格的高低没有显著的影响。因此,提出加强天然橡胶市场建设和产业信息技术服务、鼓励农户专业化经营等建议。     

Spatial integration between Finnish and Dutch potato markets

This study estimated a conditional mean model for producer prices of fresh potatoes in Finland and for wholesale selling prices of fresh potatoes in the Netherlands. Unit roots were tested in the Finnish and Dutch price series. Then, an asymmetric error correction model with thresholds was estimated for potato prices between Finland and the Netherlands. Asymmetry was allowed both in short and long-run price transmission. The results suggest that the prices are cointegrated and the arbitrage system is functioning, but with a significant time lag between the Finnish and Dutch potato markets. The price response is also asymmetric in that the Finnish price moves towards a steady state equilibrium faster from above than from below the equilibrium.     

当前我国农用地估价实践中亟待解决的问题

从当前农用地估价的实践出发，提出影响估价精度的六大问题，以期农用地估价实践者关注区域农用地地价水平平衡和农用地价与城镇地价在时间与空间的连续与衔接。