Factor adjustment implications of a free trade agreement between the United States and Thailand

Changes in intra-industry specialization indicators are used to assess factor adjustment pressures that may be experienced by U.S. and Thai industries from a proposed U.S.–Thailand Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Many industries experienced large increases in intra-industry trade over the 2000–2008 period. Ten U.S. industries are found to be candidates for factor adjustment pressures based on past experiences. These industries account for 38% of all U.S. imports from Thailand and 4% of imports from all trading partners. Results also show that nine Thai industries face possible adjustment pressures. These industries account for 9% of Thai imports from the United States. An FTA should result in a larger increase in U.S. exports to Thailand than U.S. imports from Thailand because Thai exporters face much lower tariffs in the U.S. market than do U.S. exporters in the Thai market.     

Recent U.S. economic policies and the Central Caribbean economies

This study examines the trade and investment performances of three economies in the Central Caribbean region since the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI) and associated programs. We find that the rapid growth in nontraditional exports from these economies to the United States did not necessarily translate into net foreign exchange earnings. On a per capita basis, export-related investment in Haiti was much lower than in the other two economies — Jamaica and the Dominican Republic. As a percentage of the labor force, gross employment gains for Jamaica have been significantly larger than those in either the Dominican Republic or Haiti. It appears that the policies favoring expansion in the offshore sector may foster employment opportunities of females, especially where traditional sectors are in decline.     

Impact of the US–China trade war on resource allocation: Evidence from China's land supply

This study investigates the impact of the current United States (US)–China trade war on resource allocation, using monthly panel data at the city level; the data relate to the transfer of local government-controlled land from 2017 to 2019. The results show that the trade war significantly changed local governments' economic development strategies. As the trade war progressed, Chinese local governments shifted their attention to boosting the development of high-tech industries by significantly increasing the proportion of land supply for these industries. After the trade war, for every 1% increase in the US exports as a share of gross domestic product (GDP), land supply to high-tech industries increased by 0.25%. This effect is more prevalent in cities with more fiscal resources, a younger secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Municipal Committee, lower levels of public nationalism, and a larger share of foreign enterprises among exporters. These results are consistent with our assumption that the pressure generated by the US–China trade war has significantly increased the potential returns for local governments in terms of developing high-tech industries.     

Exchange Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Trade Flows: Evidence from Industry Data

Previous research that investigated the relation between U.S. trade flows and the value of the dollar either employed trade data between the United States and the rest of the world or between the United States and her major trading partners. In this paper we use monthly import and export data from 66 industries in the United States SITC Commodity Groupings over the January 1991-August 2002 period as well as cointegration analysis and show that in the long run real depreciation of the dollar stimulates export earnings of many U.S. industries, whereas it has no significant impact on most importing industries.     

CAFTA框架下广西外贸发展策略分析

从中国—东盟自由贸易区的视角,利用贸易指数和百分比分析、显示比较优势,结合目前广西与东盟的贸易现状及变化,研究在CAFTA框架下广西外贸发展的新趋势、新特点,分析在CAFTA框架下广西外贸发展的策略。     

中美贸易摩擦实际关税加征的测算及其影响——基于细分产品数据的研究

基于中美贸易HS6位码细分产品贸易数据以及美国对华出口产品关税加征清单,本文测算了中美贸易摩擦对中国对美HS6位码细分出口产品实际关税加征幅度及其产业影响.文章结果显示,2018年、2019年中国输美产品承担的加税总金额为540.63亿美元,税率平均增加了5.22％,其中,计算机、电子元器件、家具、汽车零部件及配件等产...     

The Post‐Mao economic reform in China: A Korean view

Abstract

Previous studies that were concerned with the impact of depreciation of the ringgit on the Malaysian trade balance employed data either between Malaysia and rest of the world or between Malaysia and each of her major trading partners. Specifically, the bilateral trade balance between Malaysia and the US is shown to be insensitive to the real bilateral ringgit–dollar rate. In this article we wonder if disaggregating trade flows between Malaysia and the US by commodity could help us to discover any significant effects that the real exchange rate could have. We consider 101 industries that export from US to Malaysia and 17 industries that import from Malaysia. While majority of the industries showed short-run sensitivity to the real bilateral exchange rate, short-run effects lasted into the long run almost in half of the industries in both group.     

Testing the Marshall–Lerner Condition in Kenya

In this paper we examine the Marshall–Lerner (ML) condition for the Kenyan economy. In particular, we use quarterly data on the log of real exchange rates, export/import ratio and relative (US) income for the time period 1996q1‐2011q4, and employ techniques based on the concept of long memory or long‐range dependence. Specifically, we use fractional integration and cointegration methods, which are more general than standard approaches based exclusively on integer degrees of differentiation. The results indicate that there exists a well‐defined, cointegrating relationship linking the balance of payments to the real exchange rate and relative income, and that the ML condition is satisfied in the long run, although the convergence process is relatively slow. They also imply that a moderate depreciation of the Kenyan shilling may have a stabilising influence on the balance of trade through the current account without the need for high interest rates.     

EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION AND INTRA-INDUSTRY TRADE IN SOUTH AFRICA

This paper uses cumulative export experience functions to explore the structural dynamics of South Africa's exports for the period 1990–2003. It finds a large spread of emerging non‐traditional accelerating export products across industry clusters of different factor intensities, steadily increasing their proportion in total exports and her main markets. Shift‐share and correlation analyses show that increased intra‐industry specialisation and trade within import competing product groups explain the structural change in the direction of export diversity. With respect to quality, as measured by relative unit prices of exports and imports in intra‐industry trade with the EU and the US, a relative improvement of export quality is found.     

A social network analysis of the structure and evolution of intra‐African trade

We used social network analysis to examine the country attributes and patterns of intra‐African trade between 2002 and 2017. The results showed that, generally, trade networks in Africa have become denser, and have the characteristics of the core‐periphery structure and small world phenomenon. Trade imbalances are widely found among African countries with the evidence that structure holes exist in intra‐African trade networks highlighted by the motif detectors. Using Quadratic Assignment Procedure, we found that countries that possess closer economic, geographic and cultural distance, but longer institutional distance, are more likely to form trade networks. However, many countries and the regional economic communities on the continent, have not adequately manifested these favourable characteristics for enhancing intra‐African trade. The implications are proposed that countries should develop their strategies, expedite structural adjustment, and foster competitive industries to cope with the external competition and seize opportunities of regional integration brought by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. It is also critical to efficiently address the overlapping problems of regional economic communities and intensify their coordination with AfCFTA.     

Comparing Economic Interdependence and the Structure of Industry in the ASEAN-4: an International Input-Output Approach

Structural adjustment policies have been adopted in the ASEAN-4 countries. The policy changes were intended to shift manufacturing from import substitution to export promotion. We assess how successful this was using the Asian International Input-Output Tables for 1975 and 1985. The success of structural adjustment is verified, as the number of export-led industrial sectors increased in each of the ASEAN-4 countries. The 1-0 tables are used to evaluate the similarity of industrial technologies and input structures of the ASEAN-4, Japan, and other Pacific Rim economies. While there are some similarities in industrial technologies with Japan, input structures are dissimilar. Interdependence increased between the ASEAN-4, Japan and the United States. Increases in US final demand had a larger impact on ASEAN-4 textile exports, however, than did increases in Japanese final demand.     

China's Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?

This paper analyzes whether the slowdown of China's trade in 2012–2015 was cyclical or structural, and further discusses the effects of structural factors, including trade structure, trade protectionism and global value chain participation. Using the national panel data from 2000 to 2015, based on the error correction model and import‐intensity‐adjusted demand model, our results show that the slowdown of China's trade growth in 2012–2015 was mainly a result of cyclical factors. Using 2000–2015 industry‐level data, we also find that the structure of trade goods had an inhibitory effect on the import slowdown but a positive effect on the export slowdown. Trade protectionism had an adverse effect on the trade growth slowdown. The global value chain participation marginally contributed to the slowdown in trade growth. Therefore, the impacts of structural factors on trade growth slowdown cannot be ignored, and related policies should receive greater attention from policy‐makers.     

PCAOB Inspections and the Differential Audit Quality Effect for Big 4 and Non–Big 4 US Auditors*

In this study, we investigate whether the increase in regulatory scrutiny epitomized by the initial PCAOB inspection impacted audit quality differentially for Big 4 and non–Big 4 auditors to better understand the consequences of PCAOB inspections for different audit firm types. Because of competing views on the effect of PCAOB inspections, the relation between PCAOB inspections and the audit quality differential between Big 4 and other auditors is an empirical issue. Empirically, we take the endogenous choice of auditor as a given and utilize a difference‐in‐differences specification that takes into account the staggered timing of the initial PCAOB inspection for different‐sized auditors in the United States. Our results suggest that the initial PCAOB inspection improved audit quality more for Big 4 auditors than for other annually inspected or triennially inspected non–Big 4 auditors. We also examine annually and triennially inspected non–Big 4 auditors separately, and find that the pre‐post Big 4/non–Big 4 differential audit quality effect is more pronounced for the triennially inspected non–Big 4 firms. In the larger context of the highly concentrated US audit market, our findings that PCAOB inspections accentuate the Big 4/non–Big 4 audit quality differential are of potential interest to public company audit clients contemplating an auditor change, investors interested in learning about the consequences of PCAOB inspections, regulators concerned about the Big 4 dominance of the US audit market, and academics investigating audit quality differences.     

Technology transfer via foreign patents in Germany, 1843–77

This article analyses the spread of innovation in mid‐nineteenth‐century Germany using foreign patents as an indicator for technology transfer. It introduces a new dataset of over 1,400 patents granted in the Grand Duchy of Baden between 1843 and 1877. The data show that Baden's technology import via foreign patents from German and non‐German inventors was important. This technology transfer was broadly based, although technologies related to the textile and machine‐building industries are prominent in the data. The decision to file a patent in Baden was driven by competition and the risk of imitation. Using a gravity model with city‐level data, we find evidence that technology transfer through patents reflected existing trade links. The strong correlation between technologies filed by foreigners and domestic inventors provides further evidence that the risk of imitation fostered patent‐based technology transfer during the mid‐nineteenth century. Furthermore, we show that foreigners filed patents predominantly in industries that accounted for a high share of the workforce in Baden.     

Swing Voting and Fast‐Track Authority

Following the passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1993 and the Uruguay Round Agreement in 1994, the United States appeared to be on the verge of an era of unprecedented trade liberalization. Since that time, however, the United States has struggled to pass almost every important trade liberalization bill. Results indicate that the factor most likely responsible for the difficulty in achieving trade liberalization over the last 15 years is shifting pressures within the U.S. House of Representatives related to partisanship and constituency.     

Long‐Run Trends in Australian Executive Remuneration: BHP, 1887–2012

Outside the United States, little is known of long‐run trends in executive compensation. We fill this gap by studying BHP Billiton, a resources giant that has long been one of the largest companies on the Australian stock market. From 1887 to 2012, trends in CEO and director remuneration (relative to average earnings) follow a U‐shape. This matches the pattern for US executive compensation, Australian top incomes, and (for the past two decades) average trends in executive compensation in top Australian firms. Like the United States, Australia experienced a post‐war ‘great compression’ prior to the recent ‘great divergence’.     

Trade elasticities in transition countries

Trade elasticities play a crucial role in translating economic analysis of external adjustment issues into macroeconomic policy. Trade demand elasticities allow policy makers to draw important conclusions about exchange rate misalignments or trade balance changes. This paper endeavors to bring transition countries, namely those from Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States, into the universe of estimated price and activity elasticities of trade volumes. The estimated results imply that the traditional ‘Marshall-Lerner’ condition is not satisfied for transition countries. The estimated price elasticities of export and import demands perform fairly well in predicting out-of-sample changes in trade balance ratios for a broad set of transition countries. In the long run, however, exports and imports are mainly driven by income changes.     

Global rebalancing: Effects on trade and employment

A sustained reduction of global current-account imbalances must include a decline in the share of household consumption in aggregate demand in the United States and the opposite development in China. Accordingly, import demand would decline in the United States and increase in China. Given non-homothetic demand preferences, the resulting change in the income distribution of global import demand affects both the intensity and pattern of other countries’ exports. Simulations suggest that, for the world economy, the net effect of this shift would be a decline in industrial exports, especially from labor-intensive sectors producing consumer durables. A multilaterally coordinated rebalancing that would also include an increase in the share of household consumption in aggregate demand of developed country surplus economies would reduce these adverse effects on trade and employment. Apart from the countries undertaking rebalancing, developing countries in East and South-East Asia face the greatest adjustment pressure from global rebalancing.     

技术差距、技术溢出与中国的技术进步:基于中美行业贸易数据的实证分析

文章利用1998~2007年的中美制造业四位数行业数据,对中美技术差距对进出口贸易技术溢出效应的影响进行了实证研究。结果显示,中美之间的贸易确实促进了中国的技术进步,中国正加速对美国的技术追赶;回归结果同时显示,随着中国技术水平逐渐逼近美国,贸易带来的技术溢出具有"天花板效应",以贸易来促进国内技术进步的难度在加大。进一步的分析表明,相比较出口而言,随着中美两国技术水平的接近,进口溢出引致的技术进步会更快遭遇递减局面。文章的分析结果表明,随着中国国内产品技术水平的提高与中美技术差距的缩小,传统的以贸易促进步策略越来越难以奏效,此时加大科技投入,激励并促进中国国内的自主研发是提高国内技术水平与技术进步的根本之策。     

Trade and the structure of South African production, 1984-97

With the onset of trade liberalisation, fears have been raised concerning the impact of trade on manufacturing output, employment and growth. Using an input–output methodology, this article decomposes South African output growth between 1984 and 1997 into final demand expansion, trade flows and technology. There are two main findings. First, trade liberalisation has not deindustrialised the manufacturing sector. Although import penetration has risen, export growth has matched and exceeded the potential import-induced losses in domestic production. South Africa's response thus conforms closely to international evidence. Secondly, a combination of strong growth in capital-intensive exports and import penetration in ultra-labour-intensive sectors has aided the structural shift in production towards capital-intensive sectors. However, capital-biased supply-side policies, as well as endemic problems within ultra-labour-intensive sectors, suggest that domestic factors and not trade liberalisation lie behind this shift.