财务业绩、投资评级与股票收益

以Z证券公司2014年5月至7月间发布的208份投资评级报告为研究样本,实证检验了上市公司财务业绩、投资评级与股票收益之间的关系.结果表明:证券分析师更倾向于给予上市公司积极的投资评级,且随着证券分析师对上市公司投资评级积极程度的增强,目标价在其未来约定的期间内越发难以实现;若投资者严格遵循证券分析师的投资评级进行投资,总体上可以获得超过市场平均收益水平的超额收益;相对于单纯考虑财务业绩或事件的投资评级,综合财务业绩与事件共同影响的投资评级会带来更高的收益.     

证券分析师评级具有投资参考价值吗?

本文选取2012~2013年市场盘整期的分析师股票评级数据,基于市场调整模型,采用事件研究法,将研报发布前后不同时间窗口期的股票表现作为不同评级对股价影响程度的衡量指标,探究了证券分析师股票评级的投资参考价值。结果表明,证券分析师存在明显的"乐观倾向",增持、买入评级占据股票研究报告大部分,主张减持、卖出的评级比较罕见。从时间维度上看,买入、增持评级短期市场效应显著。证券分析师通常关注的强势股票,在被推荐之前往往有着良好的市场表现,买入评级发布后,仍旧享有超额收益,只是有所收窄。最后,针对国内分析师较少发布不利评级和现存评级机制存在的深层次内部问题,文章分别从证券分析师、投资者、上市公司和监管部门四方主体角度提出参考性意见。     

承销商分析师与非承销商分析师利益冲突比较研究

基于证券分析师首次发表的关于2006~2008年A股市场IPO股票的研究报告数据,运用非参数检验与多元回归分析方法,对我国证券分析师利益冲突行为进行实证分析。研究结果表明,承销商分析师与非承销商分析师均存在乐观倾向,而且承销商分析师的投资评级更为乐观;市场对于承销商分析师与非承销商分析师关注股票的反应并无显著差异,表明我国证券市场投资者并没有认识到分析师的利益冲突行为。     

A股与H股市场的差异与互动

本文选择了28家既在香港发行H股,又在内地发行A股的上市公司作为样本,研究分割市场之间的差异性和互动关系.通过对比相同上市公司在两个市场上的收益性和波动性差异,本文发现:两个市场在年报公告、中报公告、季报公告以及预告事件下获得的超额收益具有显著差异,而在分红通过公告事件下未产生显著差异;同时,除了分红通过公告(旧信息)事件未引起市场产生明显的波动以外,其余事件都对两个市场产生了显著的波动性影响.另外,我们也发现"H股引起A股变化"的可能性要大于"A股引起H股变化"的可能性.     

信息不确定、坏消息与投资者交易行为

本文以2000年至2010年的A股上市公司违法违规事件为样本,分析该类事件中信息不确定性的影响,以及市场反应中的投资者交易行为。研究发现:上市公司市场价值在事件日呈显著下跌;然而,与直觉有些相悖的是,信息不确定程度与超额累积收益呈显著正相关,这意味着在坏消息到来时,不确定性反而提高了股票的市场价值;最后,通过对各类投资者在此类事件中的净买入情况分析,我们发现不同投资者的交易行为有明显差异。机构投资者在坏消息中采用了反向交易策略,并且知情交易促进机构投资者的买入。     

双重上市股票的价格信息传递——基于内地香港双重上市股票的实证分析

本文选取2003年到2007年4月的内地、香港双重上市股票为样本，运用似不相关（suR）方法实证考察两个市场之间的价格信息传递情况。研究发现：个股日内收益受A股市场大盘影响比同一只股票在香港市场受恒生指数的影响要大；股票价格信息主要由内地流向香港；A股的目内收益显著影响了同一天香港的日内收益，而A股的日内收益对香港隔夜收益的影响相对较弱。     

分割资本市场下的会计信息价值研究

本文采用事件研究和面板数据回归方法对我国A股～H股双重上市公司境内外报表披露的会计盈余和帐面净值与股票超额收益的相关性进行了研究。分析表明,在A股市场上,境内报表披露的会计盈余等信息与A股超额收益之间没有显著的价值相关性;境内外报表关于会计盈余和账面净值的调整值对A股价格也没有影响;在H股市场,会计信息与股价之间的相关性较强,不仅境外报表披露的主要会计指标能够有效解释年报披露期间H股超额收益,而且境内外报表的会计盈余和账面净值调整值还具有增量信息价值。由此我们认为中国内地资本市场与香港资本市场的分割效应较为明显。     

主权评级调整对债券市场影响——基于先进经济体和新兴经济体的比较分析

通过分析先进经济体和新兴经济体在不同时期主权评级调整对债券市场的影响,结果表明,"顺周期"的主权评级调整行为,对债券市场的影响显著;主权评级的调整,对不同经济体的债券市场在经济发展的不同时期产生的影响不同;市场对主权评级负向调整反映强烈;新兴经济体受到的影响更是在先进经济体市场表现的4倍以上。为防范主权评级调整对我国的不利影响,需要多方面夯实经济发展基础,提高风险防范能力,并大力发展本土信用评级机构。     

主权评级调整对债券市场影响--基于先进经济体和新兴经济体的比较分析

通过分析先进经济体和新兴经济体在不同时期主权评级调整对债券市场的影响,结果表明,“顺周期”的主权评级调整行为,对债券市场的影响显著;主权评级的调整,对不同经济体的债券市场在经济发展的不同时期产生的影响不同;市场对主权评级负向调整反映强烈;新兴经济体受到的影响更是在先进经济体市场表现的4倍以上。为防范主权评级调整对我国的不利影响,需要多方面夯实经济发展基础,提高风险防范能力,并大力发展本土信用评级机构。     

分析师修正信息、基本面分析与未来股票收益北大核心CSSCISSCI

本文基于日历时间组合方法检验中国A股市场分析师修正信息的投资价值。研究发现,分析师发布的盈余预测修正和投资评级修正最具信息含量,投资者既未充分意识到两类修正的信息含量,也未充分意识到明星分析师和普通分析师能力的差别。根据分析师盈余预测修正和投资评级修正构建套利组合,能分别获得月均1.34%和0.92%的经三因子模型调整的超额收益。本文进一步指出,分析师修正信息的投资价值来源于其基本面分析的能力。分析师盈余预测修正和投资评级修正能够显著预测公司未来的盈利能力、标准化未预期盈余和盈余公告窗口期超额收益,并且套利组合的超额收益集中在盈余公告窗口期。本文的结论对于理解分析师在资本市场中发挥的作用、提高市场有效性具有重要意义。     

Penetrating the Book-to-Market Black Box: The R&D Effect

The book-to-market (BM) phenomenon – the positive association between BM and subsequent returns – looms large among capital market enigmas. Economic theory postulates that the difference between market and book values of companies reflects their future abnormal profits. We capture these abnormal profits for a large sample of science-based companies by estimating the value of the off-balance sheet investment generating those profits – the value of R&D capital – and show empirically: (i) Firms' R&D capital is associated with their subsequent stock returns. (ii) For R&D intensive firms, this 'R&D effect' subsumes the 'book-to-market effect.' (iii) The association between R&D and subsequent returns appears to result from an extra-market risk factor inherent in R&D, rather than from stock mispricing. We thus provide an explanation for the book-to-market phenomenon of R&D companies.     

Insider Trading in the Hong Kong Stock Market

Many previous studies on insider trading are based ondata in the U.S. capital market and conclude thatinsiders can earn abnormal profits. This paperexamines abnormal price performance associated withinsider trading in the Hong Kong stock market. We findthat abnormal profits associated with insider tradingare all concentrated on small firms. Trading volumedoes matter in determining the magnitude of thoseabnormal profits. Our results show that insiders ofmedium-sized and large firms do not earn abnormalprofits. Finally, it is found that outsiders who mimicthe information of insider trades associated withmedium-sized and large firms cannot earn abnormalprofits.     

Do rating agencies’ decisions impact stock risks? Evidence from European markets

This article analyses the effect of rating agencies’ decisions on stock risks for European issuers concerning five kinds of events. Our approach is an extension of dummy variable regression event study methodology, using a GARCH(1,1) estimation to capture simultaneously the impact on both systematic and specific stock risks. This new methodology allows us to obtain both global results by categories of rating decisions and individual results, event by event. We document, globally, a positive impact of upgrading on systematic risk, a negative impact of rating confirmation on specific risk, and no significant impact in all other cases. Regarding event-by-event results, the proportion of rating actions exhibiting a significant effect on risk is almost always observed between 20% and 30%. The weak evidence of a global effect on systematic risk may be due to the lack of informational content of the rating decisions on the stocks’ risk, or the existence of rebalancing effects between systematic and idiosyncratic risks. Furthermore, it should be noticed that the decline in volatility in case of a rating affirmed is an insight of the certification role played by the agencies.     

Differences of opinion in sovereign credit signals during the European crisis

Motivated by the European debt crisis and the new European Union regulatory regime for the credit rating industry, we analyse differences of opinion in sovereign credit signals and their influence on European stock markets. Rating disagreements have a significant connection with subsequent negative credit actions by each agency. However, links among Moody’s/Fitch actions and their rating disagreements with other agencies have weakened in the post-regulation period. We also find that only S&P’s negative credit signals affect the own-country stock market and spill over to other European markets, but this is concentrated in the pre-regulation period. Stronger stock market reactions occur when S&P has already assigned a lower rating than Moody’s/Fitch prior to taking a further negative action.     

Common Stock Returns and Rating Changes: A Methodological Comparison

This paper examines the adjustments in a firm's common stock price during the eleven months before and during the month of announcement of a bond rating change. Based on several different measures of abnormal security return, the findings are consistent with the proposition that bond downgradings convey information to common stockholders. For bond upgradings, the price adjustments were statistically insignificant in the month of announcement, although in the eleven preceding months, upgraded firms exhibited positive abnormal returns. While the results do not fully support earlier research, we stress that the main contribution of this article lies in the scrutiny it gives to issues of methodology in assessing the possible price effects of bond reclassifications.     

Demographic Change and Pharmaceuticals' Stock Returns

We analyse how demographic change affected profits and returns across pharmaceutical industries over the last 20 years. Fluctuations in different age group sizes influence the estimated demand changes for age‐sensitive drugs, such as antibacterials for young, antidepressants for middle‐aged, and antithrombotics for old people. These demand changes are predictable as soon as a specific age group is born. We use consumption and demographic data to forecast future consumption demand growth for drugs caused by demographic changes in the age structure. We find that long‐term forecast demand changes predict abnormal annual pharmaceutical stock returns for more than 60 firms over the time period from 1986 to 2008. An increase by one percentage point of annual demand growth due to demographic changes predicts an increase in abnormal yearly stock returns in the size of 3–5 percentage points. Short‐term forecast demand changes does predict negative abnormal stock returns for a time horizon below 5 years. A trading strategy taking advantage of the demographic information earns a significant abnormal return between 6 and 8 percentage points per year. Our results are consistent with the model by DellaVigna and Pollet (2007) , where investors are inattentive with extrapolation in the distant future and overreact to information in the near future.     

ESG in credit ratings and the impact on financial markets

This study examines environment, social, governance (ESG) consideration in rating reports published by credit rating agencies. 3,719 Moody's credit rating reports between 2004 and 2015 are examined and the ESG consideration is analyzed using a latent dirichlet allocation (LDA) approach. We further analyze the stock returns and credit default swap (CDS) spread changes to check whether ESG consideration has an effect on the capital market reactions. We find a small but present consideration of ESG in rating decisions. Within ESG, corporate governance plays the most important role. Moreover, the results reveal that ESG consideration is a significant determinant in the stock return and CDS spread around the rating announcement. We find that all ESG criteria are important for equity and debt investors.     

Analysts’ Momentum Recommendations

We document that the likelihood of analyst recommendations following past stock returns decreased abruptly in 2003, coinciding with the Global Settlement and other regulatory changes designed to restrain analysts’ conflicts of interest. We also document that the likelihood of recommendations following past stock returns is abnormally high for recommendations issued after negative stock returns (but not for those issued after positive stock returns), among inexperienced and inaccurate analysts, among large brokerage houses, and for companies with high share turnover. Moreover, the recommendations that are more likely to follow past stock returns are accompanied by earnings forecast revisions that are larger in magnitude and less accurate ex post. Overall, our findings suggest that analysts with conflicts of interest and limited ability are more likely to base their recommendations on past stock returns. Finally, we document that the recommendations that are more likely to follow past stock returns (especially those that were issued before 2003 and those that are issued after negative stock returns) contribute to existing price momentum by generating incrementally stronger short‐term and long‐term stock returns.     

Contrarian Profits and the Overreaction Hypothesis: the Case of the Athens Stock Exchange

This paper investigates the existence of contrarian profits and their sources for the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE). The empirical analysis decomposes contrarian profits to sources due to common factor reactions, overreaction to firm‐specific information, and profits not related to the previous two terms, as suggested by Jegadeesh and Titman (1995). Furthermore, in view of recent evidence that common stock returns are related to firm characteristics such as size and book‐to‐market equity, the paper decomposes contrarian profits to sources due to factors derived from the Fama and French (1993, 1996) three‐factor model. For the empirical testing, size‐sorted sub‐samples that are rebalanced annually are employed, and in addition, adjustments for thin and infrequent trading are made to the data. The results indicate that serial correlation is present in equity returns and that it leads to significant short‐run contrarian profits that persist even after we adjust for market frictions. Consistent with findings for the US market, contrarian profits decline as one moves from small stocks to large stocks, but only when market frictions are considered. Furthermore, the contribution to contrarian profits due to the overreaction to the firm‐specific component appears larger than the underreaction to the common factors.     

On the Economic Link Between Asset Prices and Real Activity

Abstract:  This paper presents a model linking two financial markets (stocks and bonds) with real business cycle, in the framework of the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model with Generalized Isoelastic Preferences. Besides interest rate term spread, the model includes a new variable to forecast economic activity: stock market term spread. This is the slope of expected stock market returns. The empirical evidence documented in this paper suggests systematic relationships between business cycle's state and the shapes of two yield curves (interest rates and expected stock returns). Results are robust to changes in measures of economic growth, stock prices, interest rates and expectations generating mechanisms.