Transportation and The International Trade of Eastern and Southern Africa

We use new data on transportation to determine its effect on the international trade of eastern and southern Africa (ESA). The effects were estimated with gravity models using alternative techniques to check for robustness. Freight forwarders provided information on freight charges (price), average duration of shipment (time) and variability in time. The new transportation variables and the more commonly used distance variable appear to have smaller effects overall than some previous research indicated, although our distance coefficient is identical to that of Coulibaly and Fotagné for West Africa. In contrast to other research critical of distance as a proxy for transport impediments, we find similar effects from distance and our measure of transport time, but both of these variables have significantly larger coefficients than price and variability. Landlocked ESA countries are twice as dependent on trade as the whole region after accounting for control variables, but they are not significantly more affected by changes in price and time, and they are less affected by distance and variability. The relative size of the time coefficients suggests that measures to lessen delays in shipping, for instance, faster border clearance, might encourage more trade than cost cutting measures that lowered price proportionately.     

Measuring Restrictiveness of Bilateral Trade Policies: A Comparison between Developed and Developing Countries

This paper compares the degree of openness to trade of three developed countries markets—the European Union, Japan, the United States—with that of three middle-income countries, namely Brazil, India, and China. A theoretically consistent protection measure—the Mercantilistic Trade Restrictiveness Index (MTRI)—is employed to average tariffs at different levels of aggregation. The computation relies on a comparative static applied general equilibrium model (Global Trade Analysis Project—GTAP) featuring imperfect competition as well as on the bilateral applied tariffs included in the most recent version of the GTAP database. Results provide a different picture from what could have been expected given the widely publicized diffusion of preferential schemes supposedly favoring developing countries exports. JEL no.  F17, C68, Q17     

Macroeconomic Volatility, Trade and Financial Liberalization in Africa

This paper examines the effects of financial and trade liberalization on growth volatility of real output and consumption in Africa. Our results suggest trade liberalization is associated with greater output and consumption growth volatility while financial liberalization increases the efficacy of consumption smoothing and stabilizes income and consumption growth. In addition, we find financial market depth and institutional quality operate jointly with trade and financial openness to reduce volatility in output and consumption growth. There is also evidence that good institutions which foster low inflation levels and volatility promote consumption and output growth stability.     

数字贸易发展的经济效应与推进方略

作为数字化时代的新型贸易模式,数字贸易将对未来的贸易方式、贸易产品、贸易参与者、贸易规则产生深远影响,具有重要的经济学理论价值和现实价值。从微观市场主体、市场效率以及全球贸易发展新动力等角度来看,数字贸易都能衍生出积极的经济效应,有望进一步提高贸易参与者的福利。但也正因为其全新的生产和交换属性,数字贸易的发展面临诸多制约因素,特别是数字贸易国际规则体系还未有效构建,各国数字贸易监管规则和重点也不同。鉴于此,我国需要从国家层面提高数字贸易战略地位,探索形成数字贸易发展新理念,并着力推动在WTO框架下完善数字贸易规则体系,在双边和区域贸易协定中加强数字贸易规则谈判,同时加快完善数字基础设施建设,探索数字贸易背景下新的产品分类体系。     

中国对非援助的出口贸易效应——基于出口增加值的视角

基于Eora26投入产出表数据和全球中国官方金融数据库，本文检验了中国对非援助与中国对非出口增加值的因果关系及机制。研究结果显示：(1)中国对非援助可以显著提升中国对非出口增加值，在进行了一系列的稳健性检验和处理了内生性问题后，该结论依然成立；(2)提高非洲国家的交通和通信设施质量是中国对非援助影响出口增加值的主要机制；(3)中国对非援助的出口增加值效应会随产业分类、援助类型的不同而产生差异；(4)进一步研究表明，非洲接受的DAC发展委员会国家和国际多边组织援助的“碎片化”会削弱中国对非援助的出口增加值的促进作用，这种影响在经济实力和政府治理能力较弱的非洲国家更为明显。本文的结论为中国对非援助的贸易效应提供了进一步的经验支持，并揭示了中国对非援助影响中国对非出口增加值的内在规律。这对于加强中非经贸关系，构建“中非命运共同体”具有重要意义。     

Political feasibility of structural adjustment in africa: an application of SAM mixed multipliers

The implementation of structural adjustment programs (SAPs) has often been undermined by opposition from politically powerful groups who are favored by existing policies. To assess the political sustainability of SAPs this paper uses social accounting matrices for three African countries to model the income effects of stylized SAPs on different socioeconomic groups. The analysis reveals wide variation in the likelihood for typical SAPs to be acceptable to political elites while generating growth in the rest of the economy. The presence of a rural elite or strong farm-nonfarm linkages can enhance the political sustainability of SAPs.     

论现代贸易壁垒对我国影响及应对之策

近年来,我国出口的外部环境日益严峻,以技术贸易壁垒为核心的现代贸易壁垒对我国出口贸易的影响愈加严重。现代贸易壁垒已成为我国对外贸易的最大障碍。文章分析了现代贸易壁垒产生的原因及背景,以及它所含的主要内容和对我国的影响,并提出了应对之策。     

A Systematic Decomposition of World Trade into Horizontal and Vertical IIT

We provide a systematic decomposition of world trade using harmonized bilateral flows at the most available detail (some 5,000 product categories), into three trade types: inter-industry, intra-industry in horizontally and in vertically differentiated products. The analysis is diachronic and considers country pairs such as France-Germany, United States-China, Malaysia-Singapore, or India-Nigeria. We show that the increase in IIT at the world level is due to two-way trade of vertically differentiated products. We find France and Germany having the highest share of IIT in their bilateral trade among all country pairs in the world. In value terms, the most important bilateral IIT is between the United States and Canada. Recently, specialization according to the classical theories of international trade (inter-industry trade), has recovered, due to the increasing participation of emerging economies in world trade. JEL no. F14, F15     

我国应对绿色贸易壁垒体系的策略分析

绿色贸易壁垒是当今国际贸易保护主义的新动向,是非关税壁垒的重要组成部分,它对国际贸易的发展产生了很大程度的影响。对于作为一个发展中国家,作为一个贸易大国的中国,绿色贸易壁垒己影响到对外贸易的发展,并几乎波及到我国对外贸易的所有领域。因此,系统地研究绿色贸易壁垒,分析绿色贸易壁垒对国际贸易的影响,以及分析对中国经济可持续发展的影响,对提出构建我国的绿色贸易壁垒应对策略,具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

金融危机后新贸易保护主义对我国外贸的影响及其应对

国际金融危机后,全球范围内新贸易保护主义抬头且呈现加速发展的趋势。我国在这场新贸易保护主义中受害最深,其对我国外贸的影响主要表现在造成我国出口市场萎缩和对外贸易摩擦频繁爆发、恶化我国的外贸环境、冲击我国的加工贸易以及阻碍我国经济健康协调发展等方面。因此,必须加强政府的宏观调控职能、发挥行业协会的协调监督职能、强化出口企业的市场主体功能以应对新贸易保护主义。