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This paper proposes a Bayesian estimation procedure to determine the priorities of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in group decision making when there are a large number of actors and a prior consensus among them is not required. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach based on mixtures to describe the prior distribution of the priorities in the multiplicative model traditionally used in the stochastic AHP, this methodology allows us to identify homogeneous groups of actors with different patterns of behaviour for the rankings of priorities. The proposed procedure consists of a two-step estimation algorithm: the first step carries out a global exploration of the model space by using birth and death processes, the second concerns a local exploration by means of Gibbs sampling. The methodology has been illustrated by the analysis of a case study adapted from a real experiment on e-democracy developed for the City Council of Zaragoza (Spain). Partially funded under the research project Electronic Government. Internet-based Complex Decision Making: e-democracy and e-cognocracy (Ref. PM2004-052) approved by the Regional Government of Aragon (Spain) as part of the multi-disciplinary projects programme.  相似文献   

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The aim of this article is to investigate the approach to multiple attribute group decision making (MAGDM) with intuitionistic fuzzy information. We first introduce a deviation measure between two intuitionistic fuzzy numbers, and then utilize the intuitionistic fuzzy hybrid aggregation operator to aggregate all individual intuitionistic fuzzy decision matrices into a collective intuitionistic fuzzy decision matrix. Based on the deviation measure, we develop an optimization model by which a straightforward formula for deriving attribute weights can be obtained. Furthermore, based on the intuitionistic fuzzy weighted averaging operator and information theory, we utilize the score function and accuracy function to give an approach to ranking the given alternatives and then selecting the most desirable one(s). In addition, we extend the above results to MAGDM with interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy information.  相似文献   

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In this paper we propose an argumentative multiagent model based on a mediator agent in order to automate the resolution of conflicts between decision makers for identifying knowledge that need to be capitalized and that we call “crucial knowledge”. We follow both an argumentative approach and a multi-agent system based on a mediator agent. This new approach allows the mediator agent to elicit preference of decision makers which can be different or even contradictory while exploiting and managing their multiple points of view to identify crucial knowledge. Concrete experiments have been conducted on real data from an automotive company and on randomly generated data. We have observed that a non-argumentative approach is more sensitive to the variation of the number of knowledge than an argumentative one. Indeed, the classification results using the multiagent system are consistent with classifications of human decision makers in nearly 80% of studied cases.  相似文献   

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Compatibility analysis is an efficient and important tool used to measure the consensus of opinions within a given group of individuals. In this paper, we give a compatibility measure between intuitionistic preference values and a compatibility measure between intuitionistic preference relations, respectively, and study their properties. It is shown that each individual intuitionistic preference relation and the collective intuitionistic preference relation is perfectly compatible if and only if all the individual intuitionistic preference relations are perfectly compatible. Based on the compatibility measures, a consensus reaching procedure in group decision making with intuitionistic preference relations is developed, and a method for comparing intuitionistic fuzzy values is pointed out, by which the considered objects are ranked and selected. In addition, we extend the developed measures, procedure and method to accommodate group decision making situations with interval-valued intuitionistic preference relations. Numerical analysis on our results through an illustrative example is also carried out.  相似文献   

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A Bayesian Approach to Modeling Purchase Frequency   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Direct marketers are often faced with the task of ranking, or scoring individual customers in terms of their expected value to the firm. A critical element of their scoring systems is expected frequency of customer interaction. In this paper the authors develop a hierarchical Bayes model of purchase frequency that combines a Poisson likelihood with a gamma mixing distribution, where the mixing distribution is a function of covariates. The proposed model is evaluated with two direct marketing datasets, and is shown to provide improved estimates of purchase frequency, particularly for customers with short purchase histories or who have infrequent interaction with the firm.  相似文献   

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A new approach has been presented based on relative entropy to rank all the alternatives in the group decision making with interval reciprocal relations. First we introduced the continuous ordered weighted averaging operator and used it to aggregate all individual interval reciprocal relations to derive the priority vector. Then we define the consensus indicator of the interval reciprocal relations to determine the weights of experts in the group decision making. Based on the conception of relative entropy, we construct an optimization model to minimize the difference between the group priority vector and all individual priority vectors. We also give the solution to the optimal model, in which we obtain the formula to rank the given alternatives in the group decision making for the collective reciprocal relations and select the most desirable one. Finally, a numerical example shows that the developed approach is feasible and the result is credible.  相似文献   

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This investigation develops an analytic hierarchy framework to help banks choose development strategies according to six main criteria comprising 41 attributes, namely management performance, staff rights and interests, customer orientation, financial analysis, government policy and risk management. Questionnaires are administered to compare the priorities of different criteria and the ratings of feasible developmental strategies amongst decision makers and respondents including bank superintendents (Department of Finance), economists, shareholders, customers, executives and staff of the Bank of Kaohsiung, Taiwan. Additionally, the analytic hierarchy process and consistent fuzzy preference relation are used to improve consistency and effectiveness in decision making. The analytical results reveal that risk management and customer orientation are the most important considerations for the Bank of Kaohsiung in the development of a strategy selection. Furthermore, the staff select the best futuristic policy on “focusing on core business competitiveness to become a specialized and stable bank,” whereas the other five groups choose the strategy of “merging with other finance organizations to become an existing bank.”  相似文献   

9.
The multiple attribute group decision making (MAGDM) problems having multiple sources of uncertain linguistic information assessed in different linguistic label sets are investigated. The existing linguistic labels in a linguistic label set are uniformly and symmetrically distributed, but in many real-life situations, the unbalanced linguistic information appears due to the nature of the linguistic variables used in the problems (Herrera and Herrera-Viedma, Proceedings of 4th international workshop on preferences and decisions, Trento, Italy, 2003). In this paper, we first define some unbalanced linguistic label sets, and then develop some transformation functions to unify the given multigranular linguistic labels in a unique linguistic label set without loss of information. Moreover, we utilize the uncertain linguistic weighted averaging operator to aggregate all individual uncertain linguistic decision matrices into a collective one, and define two similarity measures, one for measuring the similarity degree between each pair of uncertain linguistic variables, and the other for checking the consensus degrees among the individual uncertain linguistic decision matrices and the collective uncertain linguistic decision matrix. Finally, we develop an interactive approach to MAGDM with multigranular uncertain linguistic information and illustrate the developed approach with an application example.  相似文献   

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We propose the new compatibility of interval multiplicative preference relations (IMPRs) in the group decision making (GDM) and apply it to determine the weights of experts. Firstly, we introduce the operation of interval numbers and define the new conception of logarithm compatibility degree of two interval multiplicative preference relations. Then, we prove the properties of logarithm compatibility of IMPR. It is pointed that if IMPR provided by every expert and its characteristic matrix are of acceptable compatibility, then the synthetic preference relation and the synthetic characteristic matrix are also of acceptable compatibility. Furthermore, we construct a mathematical programming model to determine the optimal weights of experts by minimizing the square logarithm compatibility in the GDM with IMPR and discuss the solution to the model. Finally, a numerical example is illustrated to show that the model is feasible.  相似文献   

12.
领导的过程就是制定决策并实施决策的过程。决策正确与否,关系到事业的成败,经济的兴衰。因此,在经济管理中按照科学的秩序和方法,制定和实施决策,实现决策科学化,这是市场经济的需要,是事业发展的需要,也是检验现代领导者经济管理水平的重要标志。  相似文献   

13.
领导的过程就是制定决策并实施决策的过程.决策正确与否,关系到事业的成败、经济的兴衰.因此,在经济管理中按照科学的秩序和方法.制定和实施决策,实现决策科学化,这是市场经济的需要,是事业发展的需要,也是检验现代领导者经济管理水平的重要标志.  相似文献   

14.
A system that aggregates case-based linguistic decision rules using a hybrid of the dominance-based rough set approach (DRSA) and the Dempster–Shafer (DS) theory of evidence is proposed for multiple criterion-multiple participant sorting. First, DRSA is employed to infer linguistic decision rules that estimate the preferences of a few participants by means of their evaluations of representative case sets. Next, DS theory is applied to aggregate the decision rules triggered by all participants’ evaluations of an alternative, thereby generating an overall decision recommendation for the alternative. The method is demonstrated on a numerical example.  相似文献   

15.
An overview of participatory community-based decision systems in Japan is presented. In this disaster-prone country, effective community coping capacity has developed, largely to fill community-level needs for disaster preparation, mitigation, and response. Experience with three concepts of disaster planning and management, namely ??Kyojo?? (Neighborhood or Community Self-Reliance), ??Jijo?? (Individual or Household Self-Reliance), and ??Kojo?? (Government Assistance), is recounted and assessed. Then three structures for disaster management, Jiishu-bosai-soshiki (Self-support Disaster Reduction Association), ??Machizukuri?? (citizen-led town-creation), and ??Toshikeikaku?? (urban or city planning), are discussed. Finally, the contributions of the three papers in this special issue are related to Japanese community practices and to the broader perspective of group decision and negotiation.  相似文献   

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Multiple Criteria Decision Making Models in Group Decision Support   总被引:9,自引:1,他引:8  
Use of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) models to aid the group decision process was tested. Two multiple criteria group decision support systems (MCGDSS) were studied, one using the AHP/Tchebycheff method of Iz and the other using Kersten's NEGO system. These systems were compared with a commercial GDSS, VisionQuest. VisionQuest does not include multiple criteria tools. To make the study comparable, VisionQuest was augmented with an ad hoc linear programming model that could generate solutions with specified characteristics requested by the using group. The three systems were compared on the dimensions of solution quality and decision support effectiveness.One of the hypotheses was that MCDM models would force participants to examine criteria, preferences, and aspirations more thoroughly, thus leading to decisions of better quality. Subjects using the MCGDSSs were expected to have higher mean quality and effectiveness values. However, the quality and effectiveness values of the VisionQuest/ad hoc system were found to be better on the dimension of effectiveness. Explanations for this result are included in the paper.Another hypothesis was that the AHP/Tchebycheff method of Iz, a value-oriented system, would yield more effective group support than the goal-oriented NEGO system. However, the NEGO system was found to yield solutions with better quality measures than the solutions obtained with the AHP/Tchebycheff system.Observation of the groups using the MCDM systems indicate that both the AHP/Tchebycheff and NEGO methods can be revised to enhance their effectiveness. The primary difficulty encountered with the AHP/Tchebycheff method was in the large number of pairwise comparisons required by AHP. The NEGO method can be enhanced by including specification of desired attainment levels in the first stage of the method. Both MCDM techniques have potential to benefit group decision support by giving using groups a means to design better solutions.  相似文献   

18.
Managers can perceive and categorise problems as crisis, threat, familiar everyday nuisance or even opportunity. This article focuses on the extent to which this categorisation determines the process the organisation goes through in tackling the problem. Using the case history of a big externally-triggered decision in a chemical company to illustrate these distinctions, the authors show that the characteristics of the processes can vary a lot according to how the problem is perceived: and across many dimensions – procedural rationality, generation of alternatives, politicisation, timing and lateral and horizontal communication. They argue that top managers should not only pay particular attention to the manner in which strategic issues are perceived and labelled within the company and its systems, but even in some circumstances should 'manipulate' the information provided from external or internal systems. The case described here also illustrates the crucial role of middle managers in providing expertise and information during the making of strategic decisions. Finally, it points to ways in which management teams can avoid destructive conflict and engage in constructive conflict.  相似文献   

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The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between national culture and ethical decision making. Established theories of ethics and moral development are reviewed and a culture-based model of ethical decision making in organizations is derived. Although the body of knowledge in both cross-cultural management and ethics is well documented, researchers have failed to integrate the influence of cultural values into the ethical decision-making paradigm. A conceptual understanding of how managers from different nations make decisions about highly ethical issues will provide business ethics researchers with a sound theoretical foundation upon which future empirical inquiry can be based.  相似文献   

20.
<正>一、问题的提出以期望效用值理论为基础的理性决策模型已经在管理、经济和工程技术中得到广泛应用和纵深发展。这些模型用以帮助决策者对各种决策方案做出系统而合乎逻辑的评价,按照规范方式确定各方案后果出现的概率及其在决策者心目中的优先度,并对方案的概率和优先度的各种组合在符合一致性的条件下进行排序和择优。  相似文献   

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