Openness, income-tax progressivity, and inflation

This paper considers a model of an open economy in which the degree of income-tax progressivity influences the interaction among openness, central bank independence, and the inflation rate. Our model suggests that an increase in the progressivity of the tax system induces a smaller response in real output to a change in the price level. This implies that increased income-tax progressivity reduces the equilibrium inflation rate and that the effect of increased income-tax progressivity on inflation is smaller when the central bank places a higher weight on inflation or when there is greater openness. Examination of cross-country inflation data provides empirical support for these key predictions.     

Efficient taxation, wage bargaining and policy coordination

This paper is related to the literature on optimal nonlinear taxation under right-to-manage wage formation, and we assume that the fall-back profit facing firms during wage bargaining depends on the profit they can obtain if moving production abroad. The purpose is to study how policy coordination among countries can be used to increase the welfare level in comparison with an uncoordinated equilibrium. We consider coordinated policy reforms with respect to the marginal taxation of labor income, the unemployment benefit and the provision of a public good. The results show that policy coordination that leads to fewer hours of work per employee and/or a reduction of the unemployment benefit will increase welfare compared to the uncoordinated equilibrium.     

Strategic wage setting, inflation uncertainty and optimal delegation

The paper examines optimal monetary policy delegation in an economy where wages are set strategically by a single economy-wide union whose objectives relate to employment and the real wage. Crucially, the central bank exerts imprecise control over inflation, giving rise to a positive relationship between the mean value of inflation and its variance. In this context, union concerns with regard to the employment goal render equilibrium sensitive to the conduct of monetary policy. As a consequence, optimal delegation arrangements closely resemble those identified as optimal in models that assume a direct aversion to inflation on the part of unions.     

Long-run impact of increased wage pressure

An unanticipated permanent increase in wage pressure is analyzed in a dynamic general-equilibrium model combining standard theory of capital accumulation and monopolistic wage setting. The long-run (steady-state) implications are identical percentage reduction in employment, consumption, and capital stock whereas wages and the real interest rate are unchanged. The reduction in employment on impact is larger than the steady-state reduction whereas wages rise and the real interest rate declines on impact.     

Endogenous wage bargaining institutions in oligopolistic sectors

Summary. This paper explores the endogenous emergence of wage bargaining institutions in a union-oligopoly framework. Technological asymmetries among firms are shown to be the driving force for the emergence of alternative wage bargaining centralization structures that are observable in real life. As wage deals at the sector-level obtain the consensus of all unions and the efficient firms, a regulator has an incentive to authorize those deals by activating/establishing a Minimum Sectoral Wage Institution(MSWI). If productivity differences are high enough, wage setting above the established wage floor may subsequently occur in efficient firms. Otherwise, a completely centralized wage bargaining structure emerges and the sector-level wage deal is simply confirmed as the firms wage rate. If, however, productivity asymmetries are rather insignificant, firms and unions have conflicting interests and a completely decentralized wage bargaining regime prevails in equilibrium.Received: 17 December 2001, Revised: 9 June 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: J50, J31, L13.Correspondence to: Emmanuel PetrakisParticular appreciation is expressed to an anonymous referee who has greatly helped us to improve our work upon an earlier draft of this paper. We also wish to thank T. Kollinzas, J. Padilla, H. Bester, J. Sakovics, K. Uwe-Kühn, J. J. Dolado, J. L. Ferreira, A. Matsui and C. Martinelli for their helpful comments and suggestions.     

Conflict inflation: estimating the contributions to wage inflation in Australia during the 1990s

One of the major emerging macroeconomic problems during thepast century has been the tendency for inflation to accelerateunder prolonged periods of full employment. According to Isaacand Kaldor, this arises because the three major objectives ofwage earners often conflict. The first objective is the desireto maintain relativities; the second is the desire to have a‘fair’ share of companies' profits; and the thirdis a reluctance to allow any encroachment on achieved standardsof living owing to unfavourable (exogenous) events. This papertests how well these three objectives explain wage inflationin Australia using a pseudo-panel data based on the period 1989–2000.The authors find that wages are sensitive to the three majorobjectives, but not to occupational unemployment rates.     

On the real effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty in Mexico

We estimate an augmented multivariate GARCH-M model of inflation and output growth for Mexico at business cycle frequencies. The main findings are: (1) inflation uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on growth; (2) once the effect of inflation uncertainty is accounted for, lagged inflation does not have a direct negative effect on output growth; (3) However as predicted by Friedman and Ball, higher average inflation raises inflation uncertainty, and the overall net effect of average inflation on output growth in Mexico is negative. That is, average inflation is harmful to Mexican growth due to its impact on inflation uncertainty. (4) The Mexican Presidential election cycle significantly raises inflation uncertainty both during the year of the election and the year following the election which has correspondingly negative effects on output growth.     

Tournaments, minimum wage, and money non-neutrality

To reconstruct the micro-foundation of Keynesian macro-economics, the efficiency wage theory has generally been considered a success in providing a plausible explanation for the existence of involuntary unemployment. However, little has been said about how monetary policy causes fluctuations in aggregate employment and output in the efficiency wage theory. This paper extends Lin and Yang’s [Econ. Inq. 39 (2001) 644] shirking-type efficiency wage model with tournaments to account for money non-neutrality. A distinct feature of our model is that, due to the adoption of tournaments, there will be a hierarchical wage structure rather than a flat wage in the economy. As will be argued, the labor market characterized in this paper is in a sense a reversion to Keynes’ General Theory, but also an improvement upon it.     

区域外部性、对外开放与中国经济增长条件收敛

区域经济增长差异是经济发展过程中所出现的必然现象。空间自相关和回归分析方法的运用使我们可以就空间外溢对区域经济增长以及地理分布进行有效的分析。本文在新古典增长模型的基础上,提出了经济增长β收敛的空间计量经济分析模型框架,采用1978-2005年的截面数据,分析了空间外部性和对外开放对β收敛的影响。研究发现我国自改革开放以来区域经济增长不存在显著的绝对收敛。考虑空间外部性和对外开放因素后,可以观察到明显的经济增长条件收敛现象。     

中国贸易开放度、贸易结构与通货膨胀不确定性关系

完全预期到的通货膨胀在理论上并不会对真实经济活动产生实质性的影响,通货膨胀的真正危害在于它的不确定性。随着贸易开放的不断扩大和深化,影响中国通货膨胀的不确定性的因素变得更加复杂。本文利用EGARCH模型估计了中国的通货膨胀不确定性,并在此基础上利用协整分析方法检验了贸易开放度、贸易结构与通货膨胀不确定性的关系。研究表明:贸易开放度的提高对通货膨胀不确定性具有负向的影响;贸易结构的变化对通货膨胀不确定性具有正向的影响。     

The wage effects of ethnicity in Estonia

Using the retrospective (1989-94) Estonian Labour Force Survey (ELFS), we attempt to examine potential wage discrimination based on ethnicity (Estonian and Russian). Using standard wage decomposition methodology, we look at male full-time workers in the years 1989 and 1994. There is no evidence of discrimination against either ethnic group in 1989. However, the available data provide substantial evidence of discrimination against ethnic Russians in 1994. The evidence also suggests that Estonian language ability does not significantly affect wages. Surprisingly, Estonian-born ethnic Russians appear to fare worse than immigrant ethnic Russians in terms of wages.
JEL classification: J71, P23.     

Nominal rigidities, skewness and inflation regimes

The menu-costs model developed by Ball and Mankiw (BM) [Ball, L., Mankiw, N.G., 1994. Asymmetric price adjustment and economic fluctuations. Economic Journal 104 (423), 247–261; Ball, L., Mankiw, N.G., 1995. Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate supply shocks. Quarterly Journal of Economics 110 (1), 161–193] predicts that inflation is positively related to the skewness of price changes distribution. We test this prediction in different inflationary contexts: Spain (1975–2002) and Argentina (1960–1989). We find a positive inflation–skewness relationship in both countries at low inflation, even though the mean annual inflation rates were very different: 2.2% for Spain and 23% for Argentina. Therefore, the threshold of low inflation under which the menu-costs model is suitable is determined endogenously, and it depends on the inflationary experience of each economy. In the higher inflation periods skewness is not significant. Finally, our results suggest that the menu-costs model is not suitable beyond certain threshold of inflation.     

The effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation: Stochastic volatility in mean model within a dynamic framework

This paper investigates the effect of inflation uncertainty innovations on inflation over time by considering the monthly United States data for the time period 1976–2006. In order to investigate the effect of inflation uncertainty innovation on inflation, a Stochastic Volatility in Mean model (SVM) has been employed. SVM models are generally used to capture the innovation to inflation uncertainty, which cannot be achieved in the framework of popular deterministic ARCH type of models. Empirical evidence provided here suggests that innovations in inflation volatility increases inflation persistently. This evidence is robust across various definitions of inflation and different sub-periods.     

The time-varying effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation for Turkey

We investigate the effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation from January 1982 through March 2016 for Turkey by using the Stochastic Volatility in Mean model with time-varying parameters. Our empirical evidence from consumer price index (CPI) inflation suggests that the observed positive relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty is not robust. This positive relationship diminishes after 2002. This finding is valid for all five subcomponents of CPI inflation; however, for Health Services, Transportation Services, and Recreational and Cultural Services, an inflation-positive association is reported after 2010.     

Competing wage claims,cost inflation,and capacity utilization

This paper develops a theory of competing wage claims and cost inflation, and attempts to integrate this theory into the core of modern macroeconomic analysis. Specifically, the paper proposes an explanation for wage inertia and wage interdependence based on an application of duopoly theory to labor unions, and incorporates this microeconomic theory of labor union behavior into a macroeconomic general equilibrium model with goods, money, and bonds as well as two kinds of labor. Special emphasis is placed on the interplay between demand and cost factors in the inflation process and on the implications of wage competition among labor unions for the relationship between inflation and unemployment in the short and long run.     

Union bargaining power, employment, and output in a model of monopolistic competition with wage bargaining

This paper examines the implications of a rise in the bargaining power of workers on the real wage, income distribution, and the levels of employment and output using a macroeconomic model with monopolistic competition and worker-owner Nash bargaining at the firm level. It thereby provides optimizing microfoundations to Kalecki's macroeconomic analysis of the positive effect on output of a rise in trade-union power, and contrasts it with the neoclassical view based on the diminishing marginal productivity of labor.     

Endogenous skill heterogeneity and inflation

This paper examines the implications of ex ante skill heterogeneity for long run inflation. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model in which there are two types of labor (skilled and unskilled), two types of capital (human and physical), and money is introduced via a cash in advance constraint on consumption purchases. Skill heterogeneity is characterized in terms of (i) a parameter governing the ease with which the two types of labor can be substituted for each other in production; and (ii) the “productivity” of human capital in the production of skill. The model includes the accumulation of human capital which in turn creates skill heterogeneity among workers through an efficiency wage mechanism. Numerical experiments indicate that there is a range of parameter estimates in which the Friedman Rule may not be optimal. Furthermore, our quantitative experiments also indicate that there is a range of parameter values in which a greater degree of skill heterogeneity may be associated with a greater preference for inflation. Empirically, we also find that the inflation and heterogeneity correlation is positive.