Fiscal Policy in a Growth Model with Both Altruistic and Nonaltruistic Agents

This paper examines the long-run behavior of an overlapping generations model with a population consisting of altruistic and nonaltruistic agents. It also studies the effect of fiscal policy on aggregate capital accumulation and on the welfare of both types of agents. It shows that an increase in the relative number of nonaltruists is Pareto-improving in the steady state. It also shows that the introduction of public debt or unfunded social security has no effect on the long-run equilibrium but implies a transfer of resources from the nonaltruistic to the altruistic agents. Finally, it indicates that inheritance taxation hurts not only the altruists but also the nonaltruists.     

International capital flows,debt overhang and volatility

This paper shows how international capital flows originate boom‐bust and sunspot episodes in a neoclassical growth model of a small, open economy. A limit is imposed on how much the economy can borrow from foreign creditors and it is made endogenous by assuming that the debt‐to‐GDP ratio is procyclical. The steady state is locally indeterminate when the credit multiplier is larger than some threshold level, whereas saddle‐point stability prevails when the credit multiplier is low enough. As a consequence, high levels of the credit multiplier lead to both booms followed by busts and sunspot‐driven volatility near the steady state, while, in contrast, low levels ensure monotonic convergence. Compared with saddle‐path equilibria, boom‐bust and sunspot equilibria are associated with both lower welfare and debt overhang, that is, a crowding‐out effect of credit: when the economy is highly leveraged, it uses savings to cut down foreign debt, at the expense of both human and physical investment. Numerical examples show that indeterminacy arises for debt‐to‐GDP ratios that fall within the range of available estimates. Finally, the effects of shocks to the world interest rate on output and consumption are amplified and persistent in the debt overhang regime.     

金融冲击、货币政策与宏观审慎政策—基于动态随机一般均衡模型的分析

通过建立包含房地产市场金融冲击的NK-DSGE模型,考察了我国货币政策与宏观审慎政策的效果。通过比较不同政策机制下金融冲击的脉冲响应函数可以发现,宏观审慎政策的引入缓和了金融冲击的效应,并且可以同时实现稳定物价和稳定金融系统的目的。社会福利分析的结果表明：(1)金融冲击下,仅对产出缺口和通胀做出反应的政策具有最低的社会福利水平;(2)如果货币政策考虑信贷市场,并同时使用反周期性宏观审慎政策,那么社会福利将得到明显的提高。这意味着金融冲击下,政府应该积极行使对信贷市场做出反应的货币政策以及反周期性宏观审慎政策相结合的政策机制。当前,在房地产市场整体不景气的背景下,我国政府积极利用金融冲击对房地产市场进行调控。因此,采用对信贷市场做出反应的货币政策以及反周期性宏观审慎政策将具有相对较好的政策效果。     

市场化、债务融资与环境信息披露

当前,政府以信贷政策促进企业披露环境信息的理念初步形成,推进环境信息公开已成为政府工作的重要内容之一。论文以2010—2012年沪深石化塑胶行业A股上市公司为样本,采用相关分析、回归分析等方法对市场化、债务融资与环境信息披露进行研究,旨在探讨不同市场化地区债务融资与环境信息披露的相关性,为信贷政策的制定与落实提供经验证据。结果显示债务融资与企业的环境信息披露正相关、市场化与环境信息披露正相关,对于高市场化进程地区的企业而言,其债务融资比例与环境信息披露水平之间的正相关关系比低市场化进程地区的企业更显著。     

Debt Relief and Credit to the Private Sector in African Countries

Abstract: The purpose of the paper is to empirically investigate the link between debt relief and credit to the private sector in African countries using a panel method over the period 1988–2004. The motivation for investigating the relationship between debt relief and credit to the private sector follows Christensen's (2004) hypothesis that domestic debt has a negative impact on the credit to private sector; therefore debt relief is expected to alleviate domestic debt and thereby create space for domestic credit, which if it is mostly constituted of public sector credit, crowds out credit to the private sector. The main results of the paper are as follows: (1) debt relief has a significant and positive effect on credit to the private sector in the short term; (2) in the long term, debt relief has positive effects on domestic credit to the private sector only when associated with good initial institutional quality.     

货币、国债与赤字

本文介绍了货币非中性功能的论证、现行宏观经济学的缺陷、国债的性质和发行依据,以及利用国际铸币税的条件等,指出科学的货币政策应有信用调节和流动性调节两方面内容,并阐述了运用财政赤字调节信用的原理和发行国债替代央行票据的必要性。     

Sinking funds as credible commitments: Two centuries of US national-debt experience

For much of US history, the federal government employed sinking funds as devices to support the market for its debt. The policy was inaugurated by Hamilton in 1790 as a method of enhancing public credit by committing the government to redeem its debt. We interpret the commitment, as others have interpreted the gold standard, as a way of achieving time consistency of government policy. Although steeped in controversies about the utility of sinking funds, subsequent US history did reflect that commitment – until the 1930s. Since the 1930s, the view of Hamilton's opponents, namely Jefferson and Madison, that the government's hands should not be tied by commitments such as sinking funds have prevailed, just as the gold standard itself was abandoned.     

Is there any gain from social security privatization?

Increasing calls for a social security reform of switching from the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) system to a funded system has been seen in recent decades. This paper examines the effect of this reform on capital accumulation and the welfare of each generation. Three methods are used to finance the pension debt, government debt financing, tax financing, and government asset financing. With government debt or tax financing, the market equilibrium remains unchanged and all generations are as well off in the new system as in the PAYG system. Thus, switching from the PAYG system to a funded system is neutral. With government asset financing, the interest rate will decrease, private capital will increase, but the total output may either increase or decrease. The welfare effect is also ambiguous in general, depending on the rate of return of government assets. With plausible parameters, our simulation shows that the reform will lower the interest rate, increase private capital, and lower government capital in the short run, but raise government capital and increase output in the long run.     

What we can learn from the early history of sovereign debt

Many people believe that the early development of sovereign debt depended on institutions, but there are two very different ways of presenting this narrative and two very different conclusions one might draw for sovereign debt today. According to the first, this was an impartial story involving executive constraints, shared governance, increased monitoring, and increased transparency — in other words things that sound unambiguously good. According to the second narrative this was a story of distributive politics. States had the best access to credit when institutions gave government creditors privileged access to decision making while restricting the influence of those who paid the taxes to reimburse debts. This was a situation where institutions fostered commitment, but at a cost, and sometimes they may not even have been welfare enhancing. In this paper I present evidence from seven centuries of European history, and I suggest that available data support the distributive politics interpretation. I then draw implications for how we think about the politics of sovereign debt today.     

绿色信贷政策能否抑制重污染企业债务规模？——基于反事实分析法的政策效果评估

以2008—2022年中国Ａ股公司为研究样本，采用反事实分析法中的PSM-DID模型，从重污染企业债务规模的角度对绿色信贷政策的实施效果进行评估，并进一步分析企业异质性的影响。结果表明，2012年《绿色信贷指引》实施后，重污染企业的债务规模得到显著抑制，政策效果明显，但存在着不平衡的现象，国有重污染企业和处于地方政府债务较低的地区的重污染企业受到的抑制更强，政策效果相对更好。最后根据结论提出启示与建议。     

固定汇率制度下的财政政策:开放经济宏观经济学的拓展

本文主要建立在新开放主义宏观经济学理论上,进一步拓展和分析不同财政政策在固定汇率制度下对国民经济的影响,如消费、产出与汇率等。通过引入迭代模型的基本框架从而打破传统的李嘉图等价假设,我们发现因为有限生命代理人把所购买的国债看作是一种净财富,所以通过发行债券融资而导致的政府支出暂时的增加毫无疑问地将会增加本国居民相对于国外居民的消费水平。而另一方面,由于汇率水平固定不变和短期的价格粘性,政府支出增加的部分将平均分配给本国和外国商品。因此,政府支出暂时的增加将会减少本国的净国外资产头寸。而对于货币政策来说,本国居民相对消费水平的增加将导致本国货币升值压力,本国中央银行为了维系固定汇率水平不得不被动地增加货币供给。     

企业债务违约风险与货币政策立场——微观财务信息的宏观预测价值

文章基于2004年第一季度至2019年第三季度数据,构建汇总层面的利息偿付倍数、现金持有水平以及会计盈余作为企业债务违约风险的代理变量,考察其对国家货币政策调控立场的预测价值。研究发现：（1）汇总层面的企业债务违约风险越高,政府未来越倾向于采取更为宽松的货币政策,表现为未来信贷投放规模的增长和借贷利率的下降;（2）分析师宏观预测以及投资者的投资决策也一定程度上考虑了汇总层面的企业债务违约风险。研究表明,汇总层面的企业债务违约风险能够反映实体经济的资金供求状况,从而对货币政策立场发挥一定的预测价值,有助于监管当局提高对宏观经济的监测和预警能力。     

Deciding to Peg the Exchange Rate in Developing Countries: The Role of Private-Sector Debt

We argue that a higher share of the private sector in a country’s external debt raises the incentive to stabilize the exchange rate. We present a simple model in which exchange rate volatility does not affect agents’ welfare if all the debt is incurred by the government. Once we introduce private banks who borrow in foreign currency and lend to domestic firms, the monetary authority has an incentive to dampen the distributional consequences of exchange rate fluctuations. Our empirical results support the hypothesis that not only the level, but also the composition of foreign debt matters for exchange-rate policy.     

Generational accounting in Korea

This paper reassesses the long-term fiscal position of Korea using generational accounting, modified to reflect special features of the Korean fiscal situation, notably prospective changes in public pension benefits due to the pension system's maturation and increasing expenditure on social welfare programs consistent with convergence to levels in other OECD countries. Our findings suggest that unless policy toward existing generations is substantially altered, future generations will face a heavy fiscal burden. For reasonable growth and interest rate assumptions, the difference between 2000 newborns and those born after 2000 ranges from 60 to 180%. We also find that a substantial part of the fiscal burden on future generations is explained by the long-run budgetary imbalances of public pensions and Medical Insurance. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (2) (2006) 234–268.     

The soft budget constraint,the debt overhang and the optimal degree of credit centralization

The paper analyzes the optimal degree of credit centralization in the situation where the soft budget constraint and the debt overhang problems may occur. The paper characterizes the optimal range of credit centralization, and shows that the entrepreneur with a greater endowment or higher credit quality is likely to choose a lower degree of credit centralization.     

欧洲债务危机:原因、症结与出路

欧洲债务危机的发生既有内部原因又有外部原因。内部原因有欧元制度设计缺陷、危机国家政策失误、福利制度等,外部原因有金融危机影响、美元势力打压等。欧债危机的症结表现为六大矛盾,即欧元区国家与非欧元区国家之间的矛盾、欧元区内部发生危机国家与未发生危机国家之间的矛盾、援助国之间的矛盾、援助国内部的矛盾、债务国内部的矛盾、欧元与美元之间的矛盾。解决欧债危机必须多策并举:欧洲内部需要树立自信、增强他信,改革欧元、实施统一财政政策,保增长、促发展,改革福利制度;对外则需加强与美元势力的斗争,寻求中国等新兴工业化国家援助。     

What matters more for South African households’ debt repayment difficulties?

While the increased access to consumer credit has helped many families improve their welfare, the rising repayment burdens upon a background of chronically low saving rates have generated concerns that South African families are becoming ever more financially fragile and less able to meet their consumer debt repayment obligations. Using data from the Cape Area Panel Study, this article investigates whether consumer debt repayment problems are better explained by excessive spending which leaves households financially overstretched or by negative income shocks. The results indicate that households are significantly more likely to be delinquent on their financial obligations when they suffer negative events beyond their control rather than due to the size of the expenditure burden. This suggests that consumer repayment problems are likely to endure even when consumers borrow within their means. Thus, regulatory efforts to improve mechanisms for debt relief might be more meaningful than restrictions on lending.     

Does rising consumer debt signal future recessions?: Testing the causal relationship between consumer debt and the economy

This paper examines the relationship between measures of the consumer debt burden and various economic indicators. The consumer loan delinquency rate is useful in predicting consumer spending on durable goods and retail sales, while various economic indicators are useful in predicting the ratio of consumer installment credit to disposable income. The results provide no evidence for the hypothesis that a rising consumer debt burden signals any slowdown in the growth of consumer spending and the economy. Instead, the results indicate that rising consumer indebtedness is a normal occurrence in an economic expansion. It remains to be seen whether innovations in credit card usage, along with the growing use of substitutes for traditional consumer loans, will have an impact on the causal relationship between consumer debt and the economy.     

分权化改革、政府干预与国有企业债务融资

债务融资一直是资本结构研究的重要内容。利用我国上市公司数据,采用规范研究和实证研究相结合的方法,对我国分权化改革和政府干预如何影响国有企业债务融资进行了分析。研究发现,企业所在地区的分权化程度越高,企业银行贷款率越高,政府干预对企业银行贷款影响越大。在考虑债务融资的性质差异基础上,进一步研究发现,企业所在地区的分权化程度越高,政府干预对长期借款的影响比短期借款大。上述研究说明,分权化改革影响着国有企业的债务融资行为,并使地方政府有很强的动机干预辖区内的国有企业债务融资行为。     

货币政策与家庭金融资产异动的关联:1997～2009

我国货币政策在传导过程中存在明显的有效性缺失问题,家庭金融资产构成的差异与货币政策之间具有一定的效应关联。货币政策作用于按债务比与储蓄率组合划分的不同类型家庭会产生不同的效果,应在货币政策的选择中加以考量。建议完善社会保障和消费信贷制度,切实提高整体收入水平。