The Effect of Exchange Rate on Bilateral Trade Balance: New Evidence from Malaysia and Thailand

This paper attempts to identify the major economic factors that influence the bilateral trade balances of Malaysia and Thailand with the US and Japan. To this end, an unrestricted VAR model was estimated using quarterly frequency data from 1980: I to 1996: IV. The Johansen results indicate a stable long-run relation between trade and three macro variables: exchange rate, domestic income and foreign income. The main findings of this paper are: (i) the real effective exchange rate is an important variable in the trade balance equation and devaluation improves the trade balances of both economies in the long-run; (ii) the other important variables that determine trade balance include domestic and foreign incomes; (iii) the results indicate no J-curve effect and causal run from exchange rate to trade balance, (iv) the real effects of devaluation are distributed over a period of eight to nine quarters.     

The Intratemporal Substitution between Government Spending and Private Consumption: Empirical Evidence from Taiwan

In this paper, we investigate the idea that a general model of consumption should allow for the direct effect of government consumption. We show, given an assumed preference specification, that there is a cointegration restriction implied by an intraperiod first-order condition of the model. This restriction leads to a linear deterministic cointegrated system of government consumption, private consumption and their relative price that is consistent with the data for Taiwan. The intratemporal elasticity of substitution between government and private consumption is estimated to be about 1.1. Overall, we find consistent empirical evidence in support of our model.     

Labor supply response and preferences specification: Estimates for prime-age males in Japan

In this paper, we estimate labor responses of Japanese prime-age males by taking into consideration the Japanese income tax system and utilizing a large micro-data set. We employ three maximum likelihood methods: (i) a modified version of [Hausman, 1979] and [Hausman, 1981] , which assumes a linear labor supply function; (ii) that given by Zabalza (1983), which assumes CES preferences; and (iii) that given by Van Soest (1995), which employs the translog utility function and assumes discrete labor hour choice. While the estimates based on the Hausman and Zabalza methods fare poorly, those based on the Van Soest method result in more plausible labor responses. However, these responses are larger than those of the North American and European counterparts.