Developing and Using Forecasting Models of Consumer Durables The Case of Color Television

Predicting the future sales of new and established products is a critical activity for companies to be able to plan and control their operations. Forecasting consumer durable sales is an especially difficult and challenging task since the marketplace is always changing. Barry Bayus, Saman Hong and Russell Labe present the concept of a market-driven forecasting model and discuss an application involving the forecasting of color television industry sales for RCA's Consumer Electronics Division. An important aspect of this application is that a single approach or model was inadequate to accurately forecast sales over the entire period since the introduction of color TV. Econometric and simulation models which were developed are described, along with their forecasting performance and management acceptance and use.     

Retailers' Adoption Decision of New Consumer Durables

In today's competitive environment, members of the market chain, such as retailers and suppliers, are becoming increasingly powerful. It has been established in the packaged goods area that the ability to get new products on the shelves' is an essential factor in the success of a new product. However, no research exists to date that relates variables investigated in packaged goods contexts to retailers' adoption decision of new consumer durables. The present study focused on the dimensions that influenced the new product adoption decision by 291 retailers of consumer durables by exploring the relative importance of 26 adoption criteria across seven product categories. The results largely supported previous findings but simultaneously extended that body of knowledge. For example, six dimensions characterized the new product adoption decision in our sample of Dutch retailers. We discuss implications of this study and provide directions for future research in this area.     

Information,Promotion, and the Adoption of Innovative Consumer Durables*

The diffusion of innovative new products is critically dependent on the transmission of relevant information to potential adopters. Existing research indicates that the relative effectiveness of different communication tools depends on the type of information being communicated. Written and verbal communication tools can be effective when consumers make adoption decisions based on search attributes. However, when adoption depends on experience attributes, marketers must find ways to effectively expose consumers to these attributes. In this paper the authors explore the effectiveness of promotional incentives in motivating consumers to engage in behaviors that should increase their understanding of an innovation's experience attributes. To the authors' knowledge, the research described here is the first published study of the relative effectiveness of different promotional vehicles in stimulating adoption of a consumer durable. The empirical analysis is based on data collected in a real‐world experiment involving 614 households. Just over half of these households received a free DVD movie disc as an incentive to participate in the study. The authors assigned the participating households to four treatment groups of 100 households each and a control group of 214 households. The households in the treatment groups received one of four promotional offers that featured some form of a $50 monetary incentive. These promotional offers differed in the degree to which they encouraged behavior that exposed consumers to the experience attributes of a DVD player. After one month the authors surveyed these households again to determine how many purchased a DVD player in the preceding month. An analysis of this experimental data reveals that all four monetary promotions significantly enhanced the probability of adoption. In particular, the average adoption rate among the households receiving one of the monetary incentives was 41%. In contrast, none of the households in the control group reported purchasing a DVD player. Promotions that paid consumers for specific behaviors that precede purchase were no less effective than a coupon that reduces the purchase price by an equivalent amount. In addition, promotions that directly exposed consumers to experience attributes were more effective than promotions that simply provided consumers with the opportunity to learn about experience attributes. Finally, the gift of a free complementary product (a DVD movie) enhanced the effectiveness of three of the four monetary promotions. The authors close with a discussion of managerial implications and directions for future search.     

发展高效发电技术的战略选择

超临界和超超临界发电技术简介工程热力学定义水的临界状态点压力为22.115兆帕、温度为374.15℃,当达到临界点状态参数时,不再存在汽、水二相区,水直接从液态变成气态。如果水蒸气参数大于临界状态点参数,则称为超临界,相反则称为亚临界。蒸汽的高参数意味着发电效率的提高。超     

员工帮助计划--减轻工作压力的良方

在竞争日益激烈的当今社会，工作与生活节奏不断加快，使人们的工作压力越来越大。许多研究表明，工作压力对人们的工作绩效和身心健康都会产生不良影响，这已成为当今常见的社会现象，因而越来越受到关注。     

理论研讨是培养经营管理人才的有效模式

培养和造就一支懂经营、会管理的经营管理队伍是每个企业都必须面临的一项重要任务。如何才能更有效地实现这一目标,长期以来一直是一个倍受关注的问题。贵州航天风华精密设备有限公司在经营管理人才的培养过程中,引进了一套有助于培养经营管理人才多方面能力的理论研讨模式。     

关于山东纺织业落实“纲要”的思考

面对国家发布《纺织工业“十一五”发展纲要》,山东纺织业要紧紧围绕建设纺织强省的战略目标,全面落实科学发展观,站在历史的新起点,建设强大纺织强省;强化自主创新能力,提升国际市场竞争力;加快打造自主品牌,做大纺织品牌经济;加大结构调整力度,顺应纺织梯度转移;提高集群发展水平,完善企业规模经济。     

软件测试在机房管理系统开发中的应用

软件测试是保障软件质量的关键步骤之一，但却极易被忽视。本文结合一个大学的机房管理系统的开发工作，介绍了开发中对软件测试的应用体会。     

完善产品检验模式 有效控制产品质量

技术引进以来,江钻股份公司对产品制造质量的检验基本上采用的是专职检验人员把关的形式。但随着近年来企业产量的增加以及多品种、小批量、短周期等制造特点的日趋突现,目前的检验方式已不能完全满足制造企业的要求。为此,2007年江钻股份公司对这种把关式的质量检验模式进行了创新改善,确立了一个既能保证产品质量又能满足目前生产和质量控制要求的新的检验模式。创新的质量检验模式带动了公司的各项管理工作,优化了质量管理结构,提高了工作效率,促进了公司快速应对市场的能力。     

How Cloudy a Crystal Ball: A Psychometric Assessment of Concept Testing*

Although traditional and conjoint forms of concept testing play an important role in the new product development process, they largely ignore data quality issues, as evidenced by the traditional reliance on the percent Top‐2‐Box scores heuristic. The purpose of this research is to reconsider the design of concept testing from a measurement theory (generalizability theory) perspective and to use it to suggest some ways to improve the psychometric quality of concept testing. Generalizability theory is employed because it can account for the multiple facets of variation in concept testing, and it enables a concept test to be designed to provide a required level of accuracy for decision making in the most effective way, whether the purpose of measurement is to scale concepts or something else, such as to scale respondents. The paper identifies four types of sources—concept‐related factors, response task factors, situational factors, and respondent factors—that can contribute to the observed variation in concept testing and develops six research propositions that summarize what is known or assumed about their contribution to observed score variance. Four secondary data sets from different concept testing contexts are then used to test the propositions. The results provide new insights into the design of concept tests and the psychometric quality of the concept testing data: (1) the concepts facet is not a major contributor to response variation; (2) of the response task factors, concept formulations are a trivial source of variance, but items are not always a trivial source of variance; (3) the situational factors that are investigated are trivial sources of variance; (4) respondents are always a major contributor to the total variation; (5) concepts by respondents are not always a major contributor and the other interactions are often not trivial; and (6) residual error is always a major source of variance. Additionally, the analyses of the secondary data sets enable some useful managerial conclusions to be drawn about the design of concept testing. First, the sample size needed to reliably scale concepts depends on the types of concepts being tested. Second, averaging over items provides considerably more reliable information than relying on a single item. Third, which specific item performs best is inconsistent and very context specific. The popular purchase intention item is never the best single item to use. Fourth, not much is gained by sampling levels of the response task factors. Finally, concept testing should be designed to meet the needs of specific managerial tasks.     

The Predictive Power of Internet-Based Product Concept Testing Using Visual Depiction and Animation

One critical step in new product development is selecting from among multiple possible product concepts the one that the firm will carry forward into the marketplace. There is a need for low‐cost, parallel testing of the appeal of new product concepts, the results of which closely mirror ultimate market performance. In this article, the authors first describe an Internet‐based product concept testing method they developed that incorporates virtual prototypes of new product concepts, substituting them for physical prototypes. The method can be used with either static representations of the products or with dynamic representations that demonstrate how the product works through a simulated video clip of its operation. The objective of this method is to allow design teams to select the best of several new concepts within a product category with which to proceed, without having to develop physical prototypes. The authors then provide a rigorous test of both virtual prototype methods against tests using both physical prototypes and attribute‐only (i.e., no visuals), full‐profile conjoint analysis. Nine concepts compete against two actual products in the tests. Market shares from the test using the physical prototypes are defined as the “actual” market shares. Predicted market shares for the attribute‐only, full‐profile conjoint analysis and each of the two virtual prototype methods are compared to those obtained for the physical prototypes. Both static and animated virtual prototype tests produced market shares that closely mirrored those obtained with the physical products, outperforming the set of predictions across the full range of products produced in the attribute‐only conjoint analysis. Interestingly, the attribute‐only conjoint analysis identified the top three products, in correct order. It was unable to differentiate performance below these top three products. Furthermore, it predicted market shares for the top three products to be well below those achieved using physical prototypes. As virtual prototypes cost considerably less to build and test than their physical counterparts, design teams using Internet‐based product concept research may be able to afford to explore a much larger number of concepts. Virtual prototypes and the testing methods associated with them may help reduce the uncertainty and cost of new product introductions by allowing more ideas to be concept tested in parallel with target consumers.     

Consumer Decision-making at an Internet Shopbot: Brand Still Matters

Internet shopbots compare prices and service levels at competing retailers, creating a laboratory for analysing consumer choice. We analyse 20,268 shopbot consumers who select various books from 33 retailers over 69 days. Although each retailer offers a homogeneous product, we find that brand is an important determinant of consumer choice. The three most heavily branded retailers hold a $1.72 price advantage over more generic retailers in head-to-head price comparisons. In particular, we find that consumers use brand as a proxy for retailer credibility in non-contractible aspects of the product and service bundle, such as shipping reliability.     

辽宁省包装行业"十五"发展规划及2015年远景发展目标

辽宁省包装工业经过改革开放十几年的发展和建设，已基本形成相对独立、具有一定经济基础、各种门类比较齐全的新兴工业体系。包装工业承担着全省约４０００亿元的工农业产品和１００亿美元出口商品的包装任务。包装工业已经成为国民经济的重要产业部分，是全省国民经济新的经济增长点。一、包装工业“九五”主要指标完成情况１、主要经济指标全省共有包装企业８６７个，其中大中型企业和重点企业１４５个，占企业总数的１７％。固定资产原值４５亿元，职工总数１３万人。２０００年实现工业总产值９４．５亿元，比１９９５年增长７４％，平…     

Consumer demand for food diversity: evidence for Germany

Whereas a large number of empirical studies have been devoted to analysing consumer demand for specific products, much less attention has been paid to the household’s demand for product variety (the number of different products consumed in a specific time period). This paper analyses consumer demand for food variety in Germany. The econometric analysis of 4632 households suggests that variety significantly increases with income and the number of children aged between 7 and 17 years and is significantly higher if the family lives in larger cities in East Germany, and the housekeeping person is not additionally working full-time. A single male household consumes a significantly smaller number of different food products. The significant (and positive) impact of household income on food variety is in line with the hypothesis that consumption evolves along a hierarchical order as income increases.     

可持续发展的有效载体——循环经济

党的十六届五中全会会议指出:大力发展循环经济,加快建设资源型、环境友好型社会。本文拟从循环经济的含义以及采取的措施等方面来探讨。     

Consumer willingness to pay for redundant food labels

Previous studies, as well as market sales data, show some consumers are willing to pay a premium for redundant or superfluous food labels that carry no additional information for the informed consumer. Some advocacy groups have argued that the use of such redundant labels is misleading or unethical. To determine whether premiums for redundant labels stem from misunderstanding or other factors, this study seeks to determine whether greater knowledge of the claims - in the form of expertise in food production and scientific literacy - decreases willingness to pay for redundant labels. We also explore whether de-biasing information influences consumers’ valuations of redundant labels. An online survey of 1122 U.S. consumers elicited preferences for three redundantly labeled products: non-GMO sea salt, gluten-free orange juice, and no-hormone-added chicken breast. Respondents with farm experience report lower premiums for non-GMO salt and no-hormone-added chicken. Those with higher scientific literacy state lower premiums for gluten-free orange juice. However, after providing information about the redundancy of the claims, less than half of respondents who were initially willing to pay extra for the label are convinced otherwise. Over 30% of respondents counter-intuitively increase their premiums, behavior that is associated with less a priori scientific knowledge. The likelihood of “overpricing” redundant labels is associated with willingness-to-pay premiums for organic food, suggesting at least some of the premium for organic is a result of misinformation.     

油品测试方法专用标准试料

介绍了测定油品闭口杯法闪点、烟点、热值、开口杯法闪点、颜色、馏程等的测试方法及其所采用的标准试料,分析了各测定过程中的影响因素,并提出了相应的校对方法.指出,标准试料的出现,无疑对石油及石油产品测试方法标准化是一种完善,它补充的是执行标准可靠性的判断.