Participation, Trip Frequency and Site Choice: A Multinomial-Poisson Hurdle Model of Recreation Demand

Data used in recreation demand modeling are characterized by the facts that trip frequencies are non-negative integers and that consumers are often faced with alternative destinations. This paper considers these features by estimating a multivariate recreation demand model that accounts for trip frequency and choice among alternative recreation sites using a mixed multinomial-Poisson hurdle distribution. The specification of the Poisson hurdle distribution at the aggregate level accounts for participation and trip frequency, and avoids the restrictive mean-variance property of the basic Poisson model. The model is estimated using data from Bighorn sheep hunters in Alberta, Canada. Simulation results suggest that changing price and quality variables cause substitution among sites. The welfare implications of changes in these variables are also examined.     

Modelling recreation demand with respondent-reported driving cost and stated cost of travel time: A Finnish case

As the price of recreational visits is unobservable and commonly represented by researcher-assigned travel cost estimates, welfare change estimates generated by the travel cost method are ordinally measurable (Randall, 1994). For a potential solution to the resulting calibration problem we use respondent-reported driving costs and the stated cost of travel time, measured by willingness to pay to reduce travel time, to represent the individual trip price. On-site data from a hiking area in Finland are used. After considering visitors’ perceptions of driving cost and travel time, models with individual driving costs and stated cost of travel time are compared to standard specifications based on a uniform rate of driving cost and wage-based time cost. The use of respondent-reported driving costs appears to be a working approach for calibrating the benefit measures. The stated cost of time was logically related to visitor and trip characteristics and had plausible effects on benefit estimates.     

Effects of Great Barrier Reef degradation on recreational reef‐trip demand: a contingent behaviour approach*

There is a growing concern that increased nutrient and sediment runoff from river catchments are a potential source of coral reef degradation. Degradation of reefs may affect the number of tourists visiting the reef and, consequently, the economic sectors that rely on healthy reefs for their income generation. This study uses a contingent behaviour approach to estimate the effect of reef degradation on demand for recreational dive and snorkel trips, for a case study of the Great Barrier Reef in Australia. Results from a negative binomial random effects panel model show that the consumer surplus current reef visitors derive from a diving or snorkelling trip is approximately A$185 per trip. Furthermore, results indicate that reef trips by divers and snorkellers could go down by as much as 80 per cent given a hypothetical decrease in coral and fish biodiversity. This corresponds to a decrease in tourism expenditure by divers and snorkellers on full‐day reef trips in the Cairns management area of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park of about A$103 million per year.     

A Sequential Choice Alternative to the Travel Cost Model

The travel cost model is the standard model used in the recreation demand area. This model assumes that the decision on the number of trips in a given time period (a season, for example) to a particular site is determined at the beginning of the time period. For certain types of recreation activity, it may be better to model the decision to take a trip to a given site as a function of the outcome of previous trips and the realization of random variables on previous trips (as well as travel and time costs). The spatial choice behavior itself may be sequential in nature rather than continuous. In this paper, a model is developed which specifies the choice of a discrete number of sequentially chosen trips to a given site as a function of site-specific variables and values realized on previous trips. This model improves upon the existing travel cost model by specifying discrete integer values for the number of trips, developing an explicit relationship between trips taken and the number of days spent on each trip, and allowing intra-seasonal effects to determine the probability of taking an additional trip. A comparison is made between the traditional travel cost model estimates of consumer's surplus and the estimates from this sequential discrete choice model.     

Stochastic Production and Heterogeneous Risk Preferences: Commercial Fishers' Gear Choices

We present a model of fishers' gear choice, which allows for heterogeneity both in production technology and risk preferences and apply it on a panel of Swedish trawlers. Stochastic revenue functions are estimated and used to predict the mean and standard deviation of revenue for each trip. In a random-parameters logit model, we test if these predicted values explain gear choice. A majority of fishers respond positively to increased mean and negatively to increased variability of expected landing values, indicating risk aversion, but also show a strong tendency to choose the same gear used on the previous trip.     

A Finite Mixture Logit Model of Recreational Angling with Serially Correlated Random Utility

This article examines two issues concerning the trip–taking behavior of recreational anglers over the course of a season. The first is whether the random component of trip utility is serially correlated across trip occasions. The second is the heterogeneity of preferences among anglers. Recent research has examined heterogeneity among recreational trip–takers using random parameters models. In this article, the population of anglers is, instead, cast as a collection of several subpopulations distinguished by angler preferences, and the method of finite mixtures is used to identify these subpopulations.     

Agricultural extension and imperfect supervision in contract farming: evidence from Madagascar

This article tests whether agricultural extension and imperfect supervision—conflated here into the number of visits by a technical assistant—increase productivity in a sample of contract farming arrangements between a processing firm and small agricultural producers in Madagascar. Production functions are estimated which treat the number of visits by a technical assistant as an input and which exploit the variation in the number of visits between the contracted crops grown on a given plot by a specific grower, thereby accounting for district‐, grower‐, and plot‐level unobserved heterogeneity. Results indicate that the elasticity of yield with respect to the number of visits lies between 1.3 and 1.7.     

社会心理服务驱动下信访“分类治理”的理路——以河南省西平县为例

学界对于信访分类治理的研究大多基于因“人”分类或因“事”分类展开,形成了信访分类治理研究的基本范式。然而,社会心理服务嵌入信访治理体系,为信访分类治理提供了新的视野:因“心”分类,即按照信访人“心理诉求——利益诉求”的两分原则,将信访人分为利益型、心理型、耦合型和无意识型四种。本文以西平县信访治理实践为个案,提炼出由“心”而治的信访分类治理模型,并对该模型的治理理路进行了分析。研究发现:地方政府对信访频次、情绪和事件的三维叠加形成了信访分类治理的参照维度,而地方政府对治理技术的灵活性运用则构成了信访分类治理的动态实践。本文为信访分类治理过程中信访人的心理诉求与利益诉求间的关系提供经验事实,并为社会心理服务驱动下的信访分类治理理路提供分析框架。然而,受限于研究区域和案例数量,本文提炼出来的由“心”而治的信访分类治理模式还有待进一步验证和完善。     

Wilderness Canoeing in Ontario: Using Cumulative Results to Update Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation Offer Amounts

This study used cumulative results to update the distributions from which offer amounts were drawn in a dichotomous choice contingent valuation of user benefits from wilderness canoeing in Ontario's wilderness parks. An empirical model demonstrates the efficiency gains from using this procedure. Results allow comparison of variation in average daily willingness to pay (WTP) by trip length, indicating decreasing average benefits per trip-day. Two payment vehicles were used. Canoeists indicated ranges of WTPs which conformed to expected hypotheses when the payment vehicle was an increase in general trip costs. However, the same respondents indicated an upper bound on WTP when the payment vehicle was an increase in the provincial park backcountry permit price.     

Does Tourism Promote Cross-Border Trade?

We estimate a simultaneous bivariate qualitative choice model of Arizona agribusiness firms' propensity to trade and visit as a tourist the cross-border state of Sonora, Mexico. Venture business visits, quantified through the tourism equation, were found to have the largest impact on a firm's propensity to trade. Tourist visits have a greater impact on trade when combined with other firm attributes such as age, perceived need for geographic diversity, foreign language fluency, and firm size, than if considered alone. Our results suggest that there is a role for government agencies to play in overcoming imperfect information related to trade opportunities through facilitating exploratory business venture and tourist visits.     

Longitudinal Poisson Assessment of Factors Influencing Farmers’ Market Counts

ABSTRACT

This study uses secondary longitudinal data and a first difference pooled Poisson regression model to explain annual counts for farmers’ markets in the United States. Data were collected for all 50 states and the District of Columbia for 10 years, from 2004 to 2013, leading to a longitudinal data set with 510 observations. Results indicate that population growth and funds routed toward Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) farmers’ market nutrition programs increase farmers’ markets’ annual counts. The rate ratio of farmers’ markets’ counts for highly populated states that have both WIC and senior farmers’ market nutrition programs is approximately three times greater than their counterparts. Areas with high agriculture output experience a significant increase in counts. States located in the south and in desert areas have lower counts than other regions. This study suggests important recommendations to policy makers, farmers’ market managers, and researchers.     

Demand for rural tourism: the effects of quality and information

The development of rural tourism is regarded as a promising diversification strategy especially for lagging and mountainous areas of the European Union. Research concerning the demand and/or supply of rural tourism services has been limited within the agricultural economics domain despite the significance attached to rural tourism by various rural development policy measures and initiatives. The article examines the expenditure behavior of rural tourists within a framework of demand for composite (heterogeneous) goods. The proposed framework captures the quality of the tourism experience as the commodity's unit value, a quantifiable economic variable, examines its effects on expenditures and allows for the estimation of elasticity in prices regarding expenditure and quantity. Empirical analysis is facilitated by a survey recording the expenditure behavior of 465 tourists in two rural and lagging areas of Greece. The quality of the tourism experience is significantly and positively affected by the income, the source from which information about the trip is retrieved (Internet, newspapers as well as general press and special travel press) and by the amount of information sought by the consumer prior to the trip. In turn, the quality of the tourism experience is the major endogenous factor that positively influences expenditures for rural tourism. Further research is needed before evidence provided in this work can be used to draw policy conclusions and recommendations.     

ALTERNATIVE DEFINITIONS OF DEMAND FOR RECREATIONAL ANGLING IN NORTHERN IRELAND

The effects of three alternative definitions of demand on estimated parameters are explored in a travel-cost study of aggregate demand for recreational angling in Northern Ireland in 1988. Functions are estimated using individual visits and zonal visitation rates for the number of visits and the number of visitors as alternative demand definitions. The approach using individual visits was found to be the more satisfactory in statistical terms and in relation to estimates of user benefits when compared with a parallel contingency valuation study. It is judged to be the more appropriate approach where there is a well defined and quantifiable user group. However, the modelling of income and substitutes in the functions proved to be unsatisfactory, perhaps due to inadequate specification and measurement of these variables.     

林产品随机存贮策略的决策分析方法

本文讨论具有随机需求量的木材存货决策分析 ,通过确定经济订购批量和再订购点 ,得出当需求量分布未知时 ,和一些常用分布的估计式及计算公式。最后 ,通过例子说明了具有随机需求量的存货决策程序     

Testing convergent validity in choice experiments: Application to public recreation in Spanish stone pine and cork oak forests

We perform two convergent validity tests in a choice experiment applied to public recreation in Spanish stone pine and cork oak forests. Results show convergent validity between a choice and a ranking recoded as a choice format in an experiment with three alternatives plus status quo. We also find significant differences between two payment vehicles (increased trip expenditures and entrance fee) that are included simultaneously in the choice sets. We estimate aggregated recreation values using compensating variation and simulated exchange value (maximum benefits from a potential market) measures. The latter measures account for 35–51% of the former values.     

Valuing morbidity effects of wildfire smoke exposure from the 2007 Southern California wildfires

This study estimated the economic costs associated with morbidity from the wildfires that occurred in 2007 in southern California. We used the excess number of hospital admissions and emergency department visits to quantify the morbidity effects and used medical costs to estimate the economic impact. With data from 187 hospital facilities and 140 emergency departments located in five counties in southern California, we found evidence of significant acute adverse health reactions to wildfire-smoke exposure. Specifically, we found approximately 80 excess respiratory-related hospital admissions, 26 excess acute cardiovascular-related hospital admissions, nearly 760 excess respiratory-related emergency department visits, and 38 excess acute cardiovascular-related emergency department visits. We estimated that the associated medical costs were over $3.4 million. Since these cost estimates do not consider costs related to other adverse health effects, such as mortality, symptoms that were not severe enough to warrant going to the emergency room or hospital, or the costs of avoiding exposure to wildfire smoke, our estimates do not reflect the full health-related costs of wildfire smoke exposure.     

Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Integrated Pest Management Extension Methods: An Example from Bangladesh

This study examines the cost-effectiveness of alternative methods for diffusing integrated pest management practices in Bangladesh. Methods compared include farmer field schools, field days, and extension agent visits. Farmer field school participants were more likely to adopt integrated pest management practices than recipients of messages from field days and agent visits. However, due to lower costs per participant, field days were the most cost-effective means for stimulating adoption of simpler practices and extension agent visits were the most cost-effective for extending more complex practices.     

Valuing Australian botanic collections: a combined travel‐cost and contingent valuation study*

Economic values of biological collections in three Australian botanic gardens in Canberra, Melbourne and Sydney were estimated using the travel‐cost method (TCM) and the contingent valuation method (CVM). The TCM component of the study produced average per‐trip consumer surplus (CS) values of $39 and $18 for single‐ and multiple‐site visitors, respectively, for each botanic garden, resulting in an estimate of approximately $194 million for the total social welfare generated by trips to the three sites. Marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for access to botanic gardens was also investigated through payment vehicles of entry fees or higher parking charges using the CVM component. The analysis revealed a positive mean WTP of between $3 and $5 per trip per person. The difference between the CVM and TCM results reflect the different underlying concepts of value under investigation: average CS per visit for the TCM and the utility arising from a marginal visit for the CVM. Marginal changes in CS from the TCM were derived. The confidence intervals from the TCM marginal values overlap the WTP estimates from the CVM. These findings will be useful for resource management decisions in the botanic gardens collection in Australia.     

Testing the Validity of Contingent Behavior Trip Responses

While a number of validity tests exist for contingent valuation data, to date there are very few literature examples for contingent behavior (CB) data. The objective of this study is to test the validity of CB trip data for different levels of rock climbing access using data from surveys implemented before and after a policy restricting recreational access was imposed. Results from generalized Negative Binomial and seemingly unrelated Poisson regression models show significant sensitivity to scope, and suggest that CB data may be a valuable supplement to revealed preference data when policy proposals are outside the range of historical conditions.