The recurrence of financial distress: A survival analysis

Companies often suffer periods of financial distress before filing for bankruptcy. Unlike one-off bankruptcies, financial distress can occur repeatedly within the same individual firm. This paper is focused on the recurrence of financial distress and studies the Chinese stock market, where Special Treatment – an official indicator of financial distress – can be repeatedly applied to a listed company. We employ a stratified hazard model to predict the probability of subsequent distress with variables, including duration dependency, event-based factors, institutional variables, financial ratios, market-based variables and macroeconomic conditions. Our empirical results show that accounting and market-based variables have limited power in predicting the recurrence of distress, whereas the duration of recovery, restructuring events and their interaction terms with the accounting and macroeconomic factors affect the recurrent risk significantly. Tested on out-of-time samples, our proposed hazard models show a robust performance in the prediction of recurrent risk over time.     

公司治理结构与财务困境相关性探究

公司治理结构特征是探究企业陷入财务困境原因不可忽略的重要范畴。对来自中国上市公司近期数据的研究表明,股权集中度和高管薪酬两个因素与企业陷入财务困境的可能性显著负相关,第一大股东较高的持股比例和管理层待遇有助于企业避免陷入财务困境。这种结果体现了中国转型经济背景下企业在公司治理和财务管理衔接上的特殊性。企业应该重视并构建符合自身的公司治理结构,以有效规避财务困境。     

The dynamic financial distress prediction method of EBW-VSTW-SVM

Financial distress prediction (FDP) takes important role in corporate financial risk management. Most of former researches in this field tried to construct effective static FDP (SFDP) models that are difficult to be embedded into enterprise information systems, because they are based on horizontal data-sets collected outside the modelling enterprise by defining the financial distress as the absolute conditions such as bankruptcy or insolvency. This paper attempts to propose an approach for dynamic evaluation and prediction of financial distress based on the entropy-based weighting (EBW), the support vector machine (SVM) and an enterprise’s vertical sliding time window (VSTW). The dynamic FDP (DFDP) method is named EBW-VSTW-SVM, which keeps updating the FDP model dynamically with time goes on and only needs the historic financial data of the modelling enterprise itself and thus is easier to be embedded into enterprise information systems. The DFDP method of EBW-VSTW-SVM consists of four steps, namely evaluation of vertical relative financial distress (VRFD) based on EBW, construction of training data-set for DFDP modelling according to VSTW, training of DFDP model based on SVM and DFDP for the future time point. We carry out case studies for two listed pharmaceutical companies and experimental analysis for some other companies to simulate the sliding of enterprise vertical time window. The results indicated that the proposed approach was feasible and efficient to help managers improve corporate financial management.     

ST公司财务特征分析

本文选择在2005年因财务状况异常而被特别处理（ST）的上市公司,同时选取同行业、规模相近的非ST公司作为配对样本。通过比较两类公司财务报表项目均值,以及对t值的分析,总结出ST公司的财务报表项目特征。力图在分析上市公司财务困境成因的基础上,探讨各财务报表项目之间的关系以及它们对上市公司发生财务困境的预警作用。     

关于“发挥财务分析作用”的两点思考

财务分析是财务管理环节之一,对财务管理起承前启后的作用,尤其是企业外部报表使用人评价企业财务状况、经营成果的一把必不可少的钥匙,但相比企业外部使用人,财务分析并没有被企业所重视,其作用发挥很有限,文章因此从财务分析作用被削弱的原因、如何进一步发挥财务分析作用两个方面进行了思考。     

欧元对我国金融市场的影响分析

欧元从最初构想到进入正式流通历经坎坷,终于成功统一了欧洲多国的货币。在过去半个世纪中,国内、外学者提出并发展了关于最优货币区、国际货币体系改革和金融市场一体化等方面的多项理论,欧元的出现为这些理论提供了一个绝佳的验证机会。文章旨在研究欧元诞生后对国际金融市场以及对我国金融市场的影响。     

浅谈现代企业财务管理模式

构建适应现代企业制度的财务管理机制,应以财务预算为前提,建立科学严谨的成本管理机制,建立财务风险的预防和预警机制和适应现代企业特点的财务会计组织机构,确立知识效益和人才价值观念,为最终实现可持续盈利成长能力最大化铺平道路。     

Internationalisation of Chinese banks and financial institutions and its implications for IHRM

Abstract

In this special issue (SI), we aim to advance the theoretical and empirical knowledge of emerging market service firms by analysing some of the key IHRM implications of the internationalisation of Chinese banks and financial institutions (BFIs). The selected articles in this SI provide rich insight into the human resource management (HRM) challenges these firms face when they establish operations in overseas markets and draws attention to trends and developments which challenge the way HRM has been understood in Chinese multinational enterprises (MNEs). The articles address the importance of Chinese BFIs relationship with the state and the influence of political ties in the formation of management leadership styles and managerial mindset. Included, as part of our contribution to this SI, is an analysis of a major Chinese bank’s subsidiary operation highlighting its human resources practices, adaptation strategies and relationship with its head office.     

Determinants of financial distress and bankruptcy in highly levered transactions

Prior literature on highly levered transactions (levered buyouts or levered recapitalizations) has emphasized either changes in governance or the structuring of their financing in helping these firms avoid financial distress or bankruptcy. Observing a sample of HLTs over time, we observe that debt composition is a more critical influence than proposed changes in governance for the likelihood of an HLT avoiding financial distress or bankruptcy. Such evidence is consistent with the [Chemmanur, T. & Fulghieri, P. (1994). Reputation, renegotiation, and the choice between bank loans and publicly traded debt. Review of Financial Studies 7, 475–506] model and suggests that the critical factor is the ability to informally renegotiate debt terms with a few lenders.     

The defects of fair value under global financial crisis

With the advent of the economic crisis, fair value once again becomes a hot topic. This paper discusses the issues of fair value from three aspects including the meaning of fair value, its serious impacts and its inapplicability in China. As for this point, this paper stress that the rub of the fair value is its inaccurate recognition elements which will inevitably lead to the inaccurate measurement. Finally, the paper puts forward the viewpoint that China should be careful enough to apply the fair value accounting.     

浅析金融危机中我国国际贸易应对措施

2008年注定是一个不平凡的一年。一场全球性的金融危机席卷而来,对美国乃至中国都产生了巨大影响。美国30年代的经济危机仍历历再目,由于美国国会突然通过高额关税法案实施贸易保护主义,使国际贸易总额急剧收缩,使30年代的美国经济危机更加严重。我国应该吸取30年代的教训,采取有效的措施来应对这场危机。     

对我国农业保险补贴制度的思考

文章认为,目前我国的农业保险市场处于萎缩状态,其重要原因之一就是缺少政府力量的支持,政府补贴缺位,因此,有必要明确财政补贴的必要性,了解我国农业保险补贴的困境,以探寻我国农业保险补贴的出路,这对我国农业经济的发展意义重大。     

浅析我国企业集团财务管理体制

文章分析了目前我国企业集团财务管理体制建设中存在的问题,阐述了完善企业集团财务管理体制的基本原则和财务管理模式,提出了解决目前我国企业集团所面临的财务管理问题的对策和思路。     

The financial investment decision of non-financial firms in China

This paper constructs a portfolio model to analyze the determinants of the financial investment decision of non-financial firms in China. Unlike the literature assuming that financial investments are riskless, our model allows risks in both fixed and financial investments. We show that this extension provides an analytically similar but economically different model from the literature. In particular, it is relative risk and risk-adjusted return gap, not pure risk and simple return gap that enter into firms’ financial investment decision model. Using firm-level panel data of 1902 firms listed in Chinese stock market over the period from 2006 to 2016 with semi-annual frequency, we find that the ratio of fixed investment risk over total risk dominates financial investment decisions of non-financial firms. However, rates of risk-adjusted return gap between financial and fixed investments play no role in Chinese firms’ financial investment decisions, which is in stark contrast to the results using a model assuming riskless financial investments. The baseline findings are robust to alternative measures of financialization and investment risk and different firm sizes, ownership structures and time periods.     

基于现金流量管理的企业财务状况分析

通过现金流量分析,可以知道企业是如何产生现金以及如何使用现金的。而现金流量表是通过现金的流入与流出,反映企业在一定时期内的经营活动、投资活动和筹资活动的会计报表。文章通过对现金的流入与流出二者综合研究,分析企业当前财务状况,及早防范企业财务风险。     

浅谈集团公司的财务控制

随着企业集团化发展,集团公司的财务控制是一个值得关注的问题,是集团公司加强控制的基本内容和重要途径。为此,须结合本身财务管理的实际情况,通过选择合适的财务管理模式,建立健全财务制度,加强监控和考核等措施,以加强对子公司的财务监管,堵塞财务漏洞,规避财务风险,发挥出财务管理的强大生命力。     

基于效率视角的金融生态研究综述

金融生态是具有中国特色的概念。学界对金融生态的研究,对提高我国金融业效率具有重要意义。本文基于效率视角从理论和实证两方面对金融生态理论研究进行了梳理,重点梳理并评析金融生态的内涵、假设前提、金融生态和金融效率的关系三个方面,并对金融生态的进一步研究作出展望。     

浅议国有控股上市公司财务治理问题

国有控股上市公司在公司财务治理实践过程中因股权结构的不合理产生了内部人治理、财务治理主体的责、权、利不一致、财务治理主体激励与约束机制无效率、债权人无法参与公司财务治理等等一系列问题,因此,必须优化股权结构、改造董事会、监事会和外部审计模式、促进债权人相机治理机制建立、建立新的激励与约束机制。     

简析中小建筑企业的财务管理及成本控制

中小建筑企业在生产经营中,往往忽略了财务管理的作用,制约了企业的可持续发展。文章分析了中小建筑企业通过加强相关财务管理和成本控制能提高企业的经济效益。     

Corporate financial distress: The case of publicly listed firms in an emerging market economy

Occurrences of financial distress (FD) are not readily obvious yet can span several periods. This paper examines episodes of FD using industry‐relative (IR) firm‐/ accounting‐, market‐ and macro‐level information. Mixed logit regressions reveal that firm‐ and market‐based measures, as well as macro‐level variables explain the likelihood of FD in 263 publicly listed non‐banking firms in the Philippines during the period 1995 to 2018. Rates of identification of firms in financial distressed states of close to 69 percent are obtained at a cutoff probability of 0.30 in the model with time‐varying intercept and slope. This study shows the importance of recognizing heterogeneous firm behavior. The ability to more accurately predict the probability of FD and to determine the financial health of firms can help financial institutions in allocating funds and policy makers in predicting crises episodes.