COMMON SEASONAL FEATURES: GLOBAL UNEMPLOYMENT

Seasonal patterns in economic time series are generally examined from a univariate point of view. Using extensions of the unit root literature, important classes of seasonal processes are deterministic, stationary stochastic or mean reverting, and unit root stochastic. Time series tests have been developed for each of these. This paper examines seasonality in a multivariate context. Systems of economic variables can have trends, cycles and unit roots as well as the various types of seasonality. Restrictions such as cointegration and common cycles are here applied also to examine multivariate seasonal behaviour of economic variables. If each of a collection of series has a certain type of seasonality but a linear combination of these series can be found without seasonality, then the seasonal is said to be ‘common’. New tests are developed to determine if seasonal characteristics are common to a set of time series. These tests can be employed in the presence of various other time series structures. The analysis is applied to OECD data on unemployment for the period 1975.1 to 1993.4, and it is found that four diverse countries (Australia, Canada, Japan and USA) not only have common trends in their unemployment, but also have common deterministic seasonal features and a common cycle/stochastic seasonal feature. Such a collection of characteristics were not found in other groups of OECD countries.     

THE EMPIRICS OF THE MUNICIPAL FISCAL ADJUSTMENT

We summarize the literature that uses the vector error-correction model approach to analyze the dynamics of the municipal fiscal adjustment. The international comparison between samples collected from entire countries and specific regions reveals interesting similarities, but also remarkable differences. The main similarities are the fulfillment of the intertemporal budget constraint, the volatility of the budgetary components, and the importance of the intergovernmental transfers as an adjustment instrument. The most remarkable difference is the preponderant role of the own revenues in the USA, probably reflecting the larger fiscal autonomy of US municipalities. In most cases, the large municipalities seem to be more dependent on grants than their small counterparts, although this pattern is broken in Japan. Finally, partial evidence supporting the existence of moral hazard problems and the flypaper effect is provided.     

A NOTE ON THE ‘GREAT CONTRACTION’

The modern literature on the US banking crisis in 1931 overlooks the key role played by ‘liquidity black holes’ and under‐pricing in the corporate and government bond markets resulting from the banking system's fire sale of assets. This process weakened the bank lending channel in a continuous feedback loop which was eventually checked by ‘money creation’ by the Federal Reserve. This note investigates the work of Evans Clark (1933 ) who highlighted the process of fire sales and mispricing of assets due to non‐fundamental causes.