THE COMBINATION OF AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AND INPUT PRICE INDICES

Measures of agricultural incomes, and of the industry's productivity, are often derived by combining measures of the aggregate values and volumes of the industry's outputs and inputs. Combinations of price indices are less common but some have been published by Eurostat and are described in this paper. They are of two basic forms, one indicating the net effect of changes in output prices and input prices on the industry's value added and the other indicating changes in the industry's terms of trade. The paper examines the role, construction and interpretation of these measures and offers some cautions about their interpretation in the context of CAP reform.     

水资源安全视角下我国粮油虚拟水贸易实证研究

[目的]通过测算我国粮油虚拟水进出口量,估算粮油虚拟水贸易对农业用水的贡献率,以期为我国实施农产品虚拟水贸易战略缓解农业用水短缺问题提供有益借鉴。[方法]文章利用标准彭曼公式估算2001—2017年我国粮油单位质量虚拟水含量,进而计算出2001—2017年我国粮油虚拟水进出口量,进一步计算我国粮油虚拟水贸易对农业用水的贡献率。[结果](1)我国粮油单位质量虚拟水平均含量由高到低依次为棉籽、大豆、油菜籽、花生、大米、小麦和玉米;(2) 2001—2017年我国粮油虚拟水贸易一直处于净进口状态,并且净进口量整体呈增长趋势,2001—2017年我国粮油虚拟水净进口量累计达2.216万亿m3,相当于节约了同等数量粮油生产用水量;(3)我国油料虚拟水净进口量远远高于粮食虚拟水净进口量,大豆和油菜籽是虚拟水净进口最多的油料,并且其进口市场集中度很高;(4) 2001—2017年我国粮油虚拟水贸易对农业用水的贡献率不断提高,由8%增至40%。[结论]虚拟水贸易大大节约了我国农业用水量,在一定程度上缓解了我国农业用水短缺问题,为我国节约水资源和实施水资源可持续发展战略提供了新的发展思路。     

Examining the Leontief Paradox in U.S. Agricultural Trade

Factor intensity of United States agricultural trade is examined in the context of Leontief's classic paradox using Leontief's method as well as methods developed recently by Leamer and others. Findings indicate that factor endowments are important determinants of U.S. agriculture's comparative advantage in trade as suggested by the Heckscher-Ohlin theory.     

AGRICULTURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

In recent years much has been written about agricultural structure and the size of agricultural holdings. This article attempts to set the current debate in perspective and relate it to economic growth. Startirig with a largely riiral economy, it describes agriculture's contribirtion to econontic growth and the repercussions of this growth on the agricultural sector. The particular problems of agriculture in an industrial economy like the U.K. are then considered in relation to its agricultural structure.     

生计资本和社会排斥：长江禁捕补偿政策对渔民生计影响机理研究

目的 渔民作为禁捕补偿政策的直接利益相关者,其生计问题直接关系到禁捕政策成效。探究长江禁捕补偿政策对渔民生计的作用机理,对推动实现长江生态保护和退捕渔民生计保障具有重要意义。方法 基于可持续生计理论和社会排斥理论,文章通过构建长江禁捕补偿政策背景下渔民生计结果的分析框架,利用江苏、安徽和湖北3省调研数据,采用偏微分最小二乘法的结构方程模型估算路径系数,测算长江禁捕补偿政策对生计结果的直接效应、间接效应和总效应。结果 从直接效应上看,政策对促进生计资本积累和生计结果改善有显著影响,对于抑制社会关系排斥和政治排斥有显著作用,但对就业排斥影响不显著;从间接效应上看,政策能够通过生计资本和社会排斥的中介作用对生计结果产生重要影响;从总效应上看,长江禁捕补偿政策的实施能够显著改善渔民的生计结果。结论 生计资本是渔民生计内生动力,对生计结果改善具有重要意义,须继续加大对生计资本建设力度;社会排斥是渔民生计发展的外部阻力,须促进社会融合,保障渔民政治、就业和社会关系等方面权利。     

China's changing diet and its impacts on greenhouse gas emissions: an index decomposition analysis

With increasing awareness of agriculture's contribution to global greenhouse gases (GHGs) and China's position as the world's top GHG emitter, there is heightened attention to the embodied emissions in China's food consumption. China's diet has shifted to include more fruit, vegetables, meat and dairy. Not surprisingly, GHG emissions from food consumption have also increased substantially. This analysis links China's food consumption with the emissions of food production industries in China and its trade partners to determine the effects of dietary change on GHGs since 1989. We utilise high‐resolution food production and emissions data to perform a logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition to attribute changes in GHG emissions to the scale, supply structure, demand structure and efficiency effects resulting from Chinese dietary changes over a 20‐year period. This study finds that while countries supplying food to China contribute little to China's food‐related GHGs, demands for meat and dairy play a much larger role, driving up emissions. The overall scale of increased consumption of all food further propels growth in GHG emissions. Results indicate, however, that while food consumption in China more than doubles between 1989 and 2009 improvements in technological efficiency limit the rate of increase.     

Agriculture's terms of trade: issues and implications

The article addresses (1) the issue of what agricultural commodity prices should be compared to if we are concerned with the welfare of agriculturalists, (2) the general absence of product quality adjustment when analysis is undertaken comparing agricultural to manufactured goods prices, (3) the extent to which energy prices are or will be the driver of both manufactured and agricultural prices, and (4) the importance of considering agriculture's terms of trade (TOT) against the service sector, since the service sector is typically the largest in the economy. It reflects on the basic question of whether the widespread perception “that agriculture's TOT secularly decline” is correct.     

Britain's food Manufacturing industry And Its Recent Economic Development

The paper starts by examining the importance of the food manufacturing industry-to the economy, to British agriculture and to consumers. It goes on to consider the economic nature of the industry's products and how the industry has expanded its market by launching new products and increasing its international competitiveness. Food manufacturing is then compared with manufacturing industry generally as regards size of business, value added and productivity of labour and capital. Finally the profitability of large listed companies in both food and all manufacturing industry is discussed and compared with the cost of capital.     

Public infrastructure and productivity growth in Greek agriculture

Recent research has focused on the effect of public infrastructure on economic performance. In this paper, a model of Greek agriculture's technology and behaviour is constructed based on the dual cost function framework. The model provides a decomposition of productivity growth into the components technical change, returns to scale, and public infrastructure. The empirical estimates indicate that public infrastructure investment provides a significant return to agriculture and augments productivity growth. Over the period 1960–1995, the impact of public infrastructure on productivity growth in livestock and crop production is found to be positive, although it has been declining since the late 1970s. These results strongly suggest that a decline in public infrastructure investment can partly explain the observed decline in the productivity growth of Greek agriculture in the 1980s.     

The Impact of Market Intervention on Quota Mobility: The Case of the Ontario Dairy Industry

We examine the relationship between farm‐level scale efficiency and quota purchases in the Ontario dairy quota market before and after the implementation of a progressive transfer assessment policy and a price cap policy. We find that scale efficiency has a positive effect on net quota purchases and that the two regulations slowed down this effect. The largest deterrent in the movement of quota from less efficient to more efficient producers occurred after the implementation of the capital asset pricing policy. If the capital asset pricing policy remains in effect, it will likely take a longer time to achieve an efficient allocation of quota across producers in the industry. Nous examinons la relation entre l'efficience d'échelle agricole et les achats de quota au sein du marché des quotas laitiers ontariens, avant et après l'implantation d'une politique d'évaluation progressive de transfert, et d'une autre de plafonnement des prix. Nous avançons que l'efficience d'échelle a un effet positif sur les achats nets de quota et que les deux politiques ont freiné cet effet. La plus grande dissuasion au sein du mouvement des quotas de producteurs moins efficients vers ceux qui le sont plus, survient après le plafonnement des prix. Si la politique de plafonnement des prix demeure en vigueur, il faudra attendre encore longtemps avant de réussir une allocation efficiente des quotas parmi les producteurs de l'industrie.     

农地证券化、劳动力转移与城乡收入分配

研究目的:通过建立反映农地资产变现能力作用机制的城乡二元结构模型,为中国城市化过程中的劳动力暂时性转移和城乡收入分配恶化现象提供新的理论解释。研究方法:通过数值模拟和统计检验方法,分析部门劳动生产率、转移成本和土地融资变现能力对劳动力转移数量、城乡收入分配的影响。研究结果:(1)农业和非农部门的技术进步都会对农村剩余劳动力产生正向影响;(2)清晰界定的土地产权会通过增强资产融资变现能力对农村劳动力迁移产生促进作用;(3)农地证券化增强土地资产的融资变现能力,为劳动力完全转移提供生活重置成本,有助于缩小城乡收入差距。研究结论:农地证券化有助于农户克服资本约束,实现劳动力的永久性转移,形成缩小城乡收入差距的长效机制。     

农户资本禀赋对水稻生产生态效率的影响以湖北省为例

[目的]农户资本禀赋约束对水稻生产生态效率会产生重要的影响。为更全面和准确地分析资本禀赋对水稻生产生态效率的影响。[方法]文章基于长江中游湖北省农户调研数据,利用生命周期评价方法、超效率SBM模型、熵值法、Tobit和OLS回归等多种模型和方法,在理论分析基础上从多个角度就资本禀赋对水稻生产生态效率的影响进行研究。[结果]（1）农户资本禀赋存在较大差异,各类别资本禀赋排序为人力资本（0.37）>社会资本（0.17）>金融资本（0.16）>物质资本（0.14）>自然资本（0.10）。强资本型的农户比例在综合资本禀赋和分类别资本禀赋上均少于弱资本型的农户比例。（2）单季水稻系统生命周期环境影响综合指数为2.10,水稻生产生态效率为0.64。（3）农户综合资本禀赋提升有利于提升水稻生产生态效率。综合资本禀赋对水稻生产生态效率的提升效应主要得益于物质资本、社会资本和金融资本的正向影响。[结论]从物质资本、社会资本、金融资本等方面加强农户资本禀赋积累,以促进水稻生产方式绿色转型。     

Challenges of trade and agricultural development for East/Central Europe and states of the former USSR

The agricultural transition in Central and Eastern Europe and the former USSR reflects a fundamental change in development strategy, and will have a profound impact on agricultural trade. The greatest impact will be indirect, through agriculture's contribution to general economic reform and acceleration of regional and global growth. The direct impact on trade in food and fiber will in aggregate consist of a fall in net imports. Most of the decline in net imports will derive from reduction in demand and improved utilization. Potential for productivity increase is substantial, but not all of the increased productivity will be reflected in the traditional supply response of increased production. Instead marginal resources will shift out of farming, and producers will restructure and adopt new technologies in pursuit of lower costs. Shifts in the commodity composition of trade will occur, and the changes in grain and livestock markets will be greatest. If the reform is successful, the former Soviet Union could become a modest net grain exporter instead of a large importer. Wheat would be the leading export grain, and levels of wheat exports and corn imports could become quite sensitive to relative prices on world markets.     

DYNAMIC INTERRELATED DEMAND FUNCTIONS FOR FACTORS OF PRODUCTION AND THE AGGREGATE PRODUCTION FUNCTION IN UNITED KINGDOM AGRICULTURE

Taking the price situation as given in product and factor markets, a non-linear differential equation model of gross output, employment, capital accumulation, and gross input for united Kingdom agriculture is derived by incorporating internal adjustment cost functions into the representative decision-maker's objective function, and estimated using a discrete approximation. The results are consistent with efficient use of resources, but further incentives for capital investment and a greater exodus of labour could upset this. Adjustment costs as estimated account for 2.6 per cent of the value of output; those associated with net investment for 1.8 per cent, and those associated with employment and gross input for 0.57 and 0.23 per cent respectively.     

Inflation,capital markets and the supply of beef

This paper puts forward an explanation for the negative elasticity of supply of beef found in many LDC's. As is explained by Jarvis (1974), the elasticity of supply of beef may be negative in the short run due to the dual role of cattle as both a capital and a consumption good. But in some LDC's, and especially in Latin America, one may find a long-run negative association between slaughter and prices, that cannot be explained by assuming shocks to slaughter are causing changes in prices. It is no coincidence that Jarvis' hypothesis itself was developed to explain developments in Argentina, a country with chronic high inflation. The paper argues that this long-run relationship cannot be explained by the Jarvis hypothesis, and offers an alternative hypothesis based on the demand for cattle as a hedge against inflation. The long-run negative association between slaughter and prices has been found in high inflation countries. High inflation combined with excessive regulation of capital markets cause the well known phenomenon of desintermediation. It is argued here that cattle plays a role in the inflation hedged portfolio that is then demanded. Therefore, with imperfect capital markets the supply of beef is affected by the demand for cattle as an asset, and this demand, in turn, is affected by inflation. This paper will only attempt to prove the link between imperfect capital markets and the supply of beef. The way inflation in a repressed capital market leads to an imperfect capital market is not addressed here, for reasons of brevity. The paper will develop a model that in the context of imperfect capital markets results in a negative elasticity of supply. The model will then be tested with Uruguayan data. Uruguayan data are very adequate to test the hypothesis because they cover both a period without inflation and a period of high inflation. The results support that cattle was used as an alternative to money holdings when inflation signified a big tax on the latter. Inflation therefore affected the demand for cattle, or, conversely, the supply of beef.     

人居环境治理中社会资本对村民参与行为的影响研究

目的 探究个体因素和环境因素对提升村民参与农村人居环境治理行为的综合影响,明晰村民参与行为的激励机制,从而激发村民积极参与,可持续以相对较低成本改善农村人居环境质量。方法 文章基于社会资本与政府规制整合视角,收集云南省278位村民的调研数据,构建结构方程模型（SEM）探讨村民参与行为的影响机理,并采用Process插件检验政府规制在社会资本影响村民参与行为中的调节作用。结果 （1）在农村人居环境治理中,社会资本显著正向影响村民参与行为;（2）道德责任感与群体认同感显著正向影响村民参与行为,并在社会资本与村民参与行为之间均起部分正向中介作用;（3）政府规制在村民社会资本与其参与行为之间部分起调节作用。其中,激励型规制起负向调节作用,存在对社会资本的挤占效应;而约束型规制调节作用不显著。结论 农村人居环境治理过程中应坚持农民主体地位,以提升村民社会资本、提高村民的责任意识和群体认同感,减少激励型政策的挤占效应并慎用约束型政策,引导村民逐步实现自治,从而提升村民参与行为。     

FACTOR SUBSTITUTION IN AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURE

Studies of the ease of substitution between inputs in production have generally been carried out within a production framework of an explicit functional form. In this study, a somewhat different approach is followed. A model of derived demand for primary factors of production, land, labour and capital is formulated to enable inferences to be made about the characteristics of the unspecified production function. The model is used to obtain estimates of the pairwise Allen-Uzawa substitution elasticities which are secondary parameters of the underlying production function. The reported FIML estimates from aggregate time series data for the period 1920/21 to 1969/70 indicate very low and marginally different substitution elasticities between different pairs of factors, suggesting that both the Cobb-Douglas and CES production function specifications for the Australian agricultural sector are inappropriate.     

Determinants of agriculture's relative decline: Thailand

During economic development, agriculture declines as a proportion of aggregate national output. A number of theoretical explanations for this phenomenon have been advanced in the economic literature, but their relative historical significance has not been clear. This paper develops an econometric methodology to analyze this issue and applies it to time series data for Thailand. The study investigates the importance of relative commodity prices, factor endowments and technical progress as explanations for changing sectoral GDP shares of agriculture, manufacturing and services. It is concluded that the movement in Thailand's aggregate factor endowment relative to labor was the most important determinant of agriculture's relative decline.     

Processing Technology,Market Power and Price Transmission

This paper focuses on the extent to which price changes occurring at the farm-level are transmitted to the retail sector. A price transmission elasticity is derived which is shown to depend on the degree of market power in the food industry and the nature of the food industry's processing technology. The offsetting role of the processing technology and market power in determining the extent of price transmission are highlighted. A case-study reports values for the price transmission elasticity for the US beef and pork sectors.     

Double Counting Agricultural Income

Economics and accounting offer two distinct perspectives on magnitudes such as income and capital. Accounting income, for example, is an ex posr realization used in business analysis, while economic income, used in planning and resource allocation, is an ex ante expectation. Accounting capital is a transactions-based measure of unallocated costs minus liabilities, whereas economic capital is the present value of expected future returns. Typically, on farm balance sheets, net worth is a measure composed of both accounting capital and economic capital. These magnitudes are not conformable for addition, and double counting of income from land can occur when it is counted once as an expectation contained in the current market value of land and again as a realization when it affects net worth through retained farm income. This inconsistent specification of capital plus equity (collateral) lending greatly increases risk when using debt capital over the farm business cycle; at the farm level, this treatment of capital can result in the failure to maintain capital and, at the aggregate level, it probably exaggerates the farm boom-and-bust cycle. Also addressed are double-counted measures of farmers' welfare, returns and rates of return. Les services économiques et comptables offrent deux perspectives distinctes pour arriver è des chiffres comme le revenu et le capital. Le revenu comptable, par exemple, est une réalisation après coup utilisée dans I'analyse d'affaires, et le revenu Cconomique, utilisé dans la planification et I'attribution des ressources, est une prévision. La comptabilisation du capital se fonde sur des transactions pour mesurer les coDts non attribués moins les sommes dues. Le capital économique est la valeur actuelle des revenus a venir. En général, sur les bilans de ferme, la valeur nette est une mesure qui combine le capital comptable et le capital economique. ées chiffres ne s'additionnent pas et on peut compter deux fois le revenu de la terre, d'abord comme une attente à I'egard de la valeur au cours du marché du terrain et ensuite comme une realisation lorsque les benefices non distribués influent le bilan. Cette specification inconsistante qui additionne le capital et les prets sur équité (avances contre garanties) augmente beaucoup le risque lorsqu'on se sert de dettes d'éta-blissement au cours du cycle de I'entreprise agricole: au niveau de la ferme ce traitement du capital peut aboutir a la perte du capital et au niveau global ce traitement exagére le cycle «boom and bust» agricole. Cette étude adresse aussi la possibilité que les mesures du bien-être des fermiers, des revenus et des taux de rendement sont cornptées deux fois.