PROJECTION MODELS FOR U.K. FOOD AND AGRICULTURE*

Successful policy planning depends to a large extent on being able to predict the consequences of alternative measures. In the case of agriculture, it is important to know how the future pattern of supply and demand in this sector will be affected by government action on specific issues such as farm price support, and by expected trends in macro-economic variables such as national incomes and population. This paper illustrates the application of a model of U.K. agriculture to the projection of changes in the production and consumption of food and agriculture products between now and 1975. The demand projections show the effect of important levies, and of joining the E.E.C, on future expenditure on food, while the supply projections show how the output of a number of agricultural commodities will be affected by adjusting farm prices towards E.E.C. levels.     

TAXATION,COST OF CAPITAL AND INVESTMENT IN AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURE*

The concept and measurement of the cost of capital is developed to include particularly the role of taxation in investment behaviour. The relative importance of factors influencing investment in plant and machinery is examined for five sectors which make up the broadacre industry of Australia. It is shown that residual funds are important in determining plant and machinery investment, but not through the normally hypothesised channels. It is not the increased liquidity from increased income which raises investment, but the fall in the cost of capital, which is associated with the marginal rate of tax.     

LABOUR USE AND LABOUR REQUIREMENTS IN UK AGRICULTURE

Estimates of labour input coefficients for individual agricultural enterprises have many uses for policy-makers, agricultural administrators, farm mangement advisers and academics alike, though they have attracted relatively little attention in the UK in recent years. This article describes a new method for estimating labour input coefficients which enables the estimates to be updated quickly and cheaply using information already available from the annual June Census. Some possible uses of the resulting coefficients including the evaluation of prospective changes in agricultural policy are described.     

FAMILY AND EMPLOYMENT IN AGRICULTURE: RECENT CHANGES IN FRANCE

This paper examines changes which have occurred in agricultural employment in France during the last two decades. It focuses on family employment since nowadays farm families provide more than half of the labour supply of the industry, as in nearly all the developed countries. The reasons behind the variation in the annual rate of decline in agricultural employment are split into two sets of factors: alterations in the age structure of the farm population, and modifications in the tendency to enter and leave farming in each age group. In respect of the later, the varied consequences of the occurrence of the economic crisis are discussed, together with the effects of deep sociological changes, especially in the relationships between members of the farm family.     

STABILISATION AND RISK REDUCTION IN AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURE*

Agricultural producers typically are faced with risk about the yields they will experience and the prices they will receive. Stabilisation schemes can spread risk and thereby reduce the risk faced by individual producers. The risk-reducing capacity of a scheme and the cost of risk reduction depend upon the design of the scheme. In particular, it is important to distinguish between risk and instability. A classification of scheme designs is presented to bring out the effects of various design types. Schemes for the wheat industry are given most attention.     

AGRICULTURE IN THE URUGUAY ROUND: AMBITIONS AND REALITIES

Agricultural trade policies are basically a function of domestic policy considerations which have produced high levels of support in many countries. New policy instruments such as direct payments, which are more demanding in terms of information costs but which distort resource allocation less, are becoming more attractive. Unilateral liberalisation is, however, unlikely. Freer trade is a public good which requires international collective action to be provided. Countries which have a clear-cut trade interest in liberalising markets for commodities they export can play the role of catalyst in international co-ordination. The existence of big players is a favourable factor. Hence, the drift of the Round towards a co-ordination of US-EC interests. Both political economy and trade interest considerations suggest that an agreement reached will have its main impact on crops which are widely traded. The main constraining factor of an agreement on EC and US agriculture will be the discipline it will impose on the use of export subsidies. Agriculture will still not come fully under GATT rules which apply to other sectors, but in the future the CAP will be more constrained by international commitments than in the past.     

AGRICULTURE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PAPUA AND NEW GUINEA

Primary production including subsistence production, accounts for about 60 per cent of the national income of Papua and New Guinea. The bulk of the indigenous people are subsistence farmers, or have contact with the cash economy through agriculture, and the agricultural industries provide virtually the sole source of export earnings. The position is nevertheless changing rapidly.     

SOME ASPECTS OF FOOD CONSUMPTION AND ITS LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE IN PAKISTAN, 1961-86

This paper attempts to answer three important questions regarding the consumption of food in Pakistan: (2) What are the recent trends of consumption in the rural and urban areas? (2) What is the likely direction and magnitude of food demand during the period 1961-86? (3) Is the growth of production of food commodities going to be sufficient to meet the requirements by 1970 and thereafter?     

TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY IN UK AGRICULTURE, 1967-90

Indices of total factor productivity (TFP) measure aggregate output per unit of aggregate input, providing a guide to the efficiency of agricultural production. This paper outlines the relationship between production functions and TFP indices. An index for the period 1967-90, constructed from the UK aggregate agricultural accounts, shows that TFP grew at an average rate of 1.9% per annum and that TFP growth has increased since the UK joined the European Community. At the aggregate level, this change seems to be explained by increased aggregate output and decreased aggregate input, in about equal proportions. Disaggregation shows the intensification effect of the CAP price regime. There has been rapid growth in the output of farm crops, relative to other enterprises, and in the use of agricultural chemicals.     

PROBLEMS,POLICIES AND DATA NEEDS IN CANADIAN AGRICULTURE*

This study maintains that the development of Canadian agriculture requires a reassessment of the values, constraints and goals relating to the sector, with a view to conceive and implement a goals-means-targets structure more amenable to progress. The solution of the economic, socio-psychological and organizational problems which beset Canadian agriculture is presently hindered by a paucity of adequate, timely data in crucial areas. The performance of the policy-maker and the agricultural producer have been generally suboptimal, as exemplified by extemporization in the case of the former and secular inefficiencies and forgone opportunities in the case of the latter. Cette étude maintienl que le développement de ?agriculture canadienne impose un réajustment des valeurs, des conlrainles et des objectifs agricoles. afin de concevoir et ?aménager des structures évolutives englobant les fins et les moyens. Le manque de données valables et opportuns dans les domaines cruciaux nous empêche d.apporter une solution aux problémes économiques, socio-psychologiques el structured auxquels ?agriculture canadienne se heurle aujourd'hui. Ni les responsables de la politique agricole ni les producteurs n'ont atteint un optimum ?efficacité, c'esl ce que démontre ?improvisation qui règne dans la politique agricole et ?inefficacité séculaire et les occasions manquées dans le cas des producteurs.     

PRICISM v. STRUCTURALISM IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN AGRICULTURE

A re-examination of data frequently used to support the notion of price discrimination against agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa suggests that the extent of agricultural taxation has been overstated. In addition, a review of the evidence on the aggregate agricultural supply response to price indicates that elasticities are low, with the most plausible estimates lying in the range 0.2–0.4. Eight structural constraints explaining the poor supply response, to which Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly prone, are identified. Further evidence is presented to show that output responds more significantly to structural factors than to price, and that investment in rural infrastructure will bring about an improved response to price. Capital constraints limit price-induced private investment, so that public sector led investment in new technology and rural infrastructure would appear to be the single most important strategy for reversing the decline in African agriculture.     

SUGAR PRICES AND HIGH-FRUCTOSE CORN SYRUP CONSUMPTION IN THE UNITED STATES

The main explanations of the effect of sugar prices on high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) consumption in the United States are briefly reviewed. A formal model is presented and estimated in a reduced form for the period 1971-88. The hypothesis that sugar prices affect HFCS consumption growth is confirmed. The estimated model is used to analyse both the effect on HFCS consumption of the two peaks in sugar prices which occurred in 1976-75 and in 1980, and the effect of the protection applied to the US sugar market. The model is also used to estimate the extent to which the rapid expansion of US HFCS consumption can be attributed solely to the 1974 peak in the international sugar price.     

CAUSALITY BETWEEN PRODUCTIVITY AND EXPORTS IN AGRICULTURE: EVIDENCE FROM ASIA AND LATIN AMERICA

This paper examines the causal relationship between agricultural productivity and exports for selected Asian and Latin American countries. Alternative views about the causal relationship between these variables of economic interest exist. Economic theory provides no firm basis to judge whether productivity causes exports or exports cause productivity (export-led growth). Since this issue is empirical, econometric tests are utilised to investigate the nature of this causality. Test results are mixed although the export-led growth hypothesis is validated in a few cases.