Investigating improved pasture productivity change on the New South Wales tablelands

The productivity of improved pastures in Australia's southeastern grazing regions is now believed to be in a state of long-term decline. As yet, there is little economic evidence to support this perception. The analysis reported in this paper seeks to examine improved pasture Productivity change from an economic standpoint in a major Australian grazing area. The analysis rests on the central proposition that the Productivity of the livestock enterprises is a direct reflection of pasture productivity. Using both index number and econometric methods, the results indicate that while the annual growth in livestock and hence, improved pasture productivity has been positive over the period, there has been a significant decline in legume pasture productivity. Because these pastures comprise the bulk of improved pastures, the livestock Productivity of all improved pastures has declined in recent years. In contrast, the growth in livestock productivity from the perennial grass pastures continues to be high. The main reasons for legume pasture livestock productivity decline appear to be various important biological Problems and the long-term decline farmers' terms-of-trade.     

Economic benefits of public investment in weed management: the case of vulpia in south-eastern Australia's temperate pasture areas

The present paper reports an economic evaluation of the long-term benefits to Australia of research by the Cooperative Research Centre for Weed Management Systems (CRC) into the improved management of vulpia , the major annual grass weed of temperate pastures in New South Wales and Victoria. Vulpia reduces livestock production by competition with more desirable pasture species, by the production of low quality feed at critical times of the grazing cycle, and by injury to animals. A 20-year stochastic benefit-cost analysis indicated that reducing the impacts of vulpia in these pastures produced a mean net present value of $A58.3 million and a mean benefit-cost ratio of 33:1. Temperate pasture zone wool producers would capture the largest shares of these benefits, Australian consumers would gain, but wool producers in the rest of Australia would suffer welfare losses from vulpia reductions in the temperate pasture zones.     

Investing in Perennial Pasture Improvement: A Real Options Analysis

In investment analysis, uncertainty and irreversibility can undermine net present value (NPV) as a decision rule since the option to delay investment may have value. We apply the real option theory of investment to the pasture investment decision facing livestock producers in southwest Western Australia. In 2006, livestock producers thinned their herds as pasture availability dwindled due to extreme drought conditions. This left producers with a unique opportunity to either establish new perennial pastures for their cattle or utilize volunteer annual pasture and invest in more sheep breeders. In either case, large and irreversible investments fraught with multiple sources of uncertainty implies that one can gain useful insights by casting the investment problem in a real option context. The results suggest that required rates of return for each investment alternative are about 1% to 1.5% higher than standard NPV would suggest with sheep production having the lower required rate of return.     

Determinants of crop-livestock integration in Brazil: Evidence from the household and regional levels

Integrated crop-livestock systems (iCL) are advocated as a promising strategy to increase agricultural production and rehabilitate degraded pastures while mitigating GHG emissions. Although iCL in Brazil has increased over the past few years, it still occupies a small share of the country’s total agricultural area. We investigate the determinants of iCL occurrence in Mato Grosso state, a globally important producer of beef cattle and grains that has experienced rapid land cover change and environmental degradation in recent decades. Our analysis encompasses two typical cases of iCL in Mato Grosso (the rotation of soy followed by pasture, and soy followed by maize and pasture) as well as biophysical, socioeconomic, and institutional factors observable at the household and/or municipality levels that may influence the wide-scale occurrence of iCL. Evidence at both scales suggests that knowledge and supply chain infrastructure play an important role in early occurrence of iCL, as they are more common in regions closer to iCL research stations and processing facilities of grains and cattle. On average iCL adopters are more educated and have better access to technical assistance and sector information than specialized farmers or ranchers. Most iCLs are concentrated near established soy areas and greater similarity exists between municipalities with iCL and soy-dominant municipalities vs. pasture-dominant municipalities. Our findings reveal the importance of specific conditions for iCL occurrence and iCL promotion in livestock-dominant regions. Incentives targeted at ranchers are crucial for the achievement of the Brazilian Government’s goal to restore degraded pastures through agricultural intensification.     

The economic costs of weeds on productive land in New Zealand

Here we review published research on the costs of weeds to New Zealand’s pastoral, arable and forestry sectors, and propose an alternative dynamic approach for future research. The studies reviewed had little in common methodologically, often contained guesswork, or were outdated. Their aggregation resulted in a conservative estimate of the cost of weeds to New Zealand’s agricultural economy of $1658 million (2014 NZD). To address deficiencies in previously used methodologies, a dynamic approach is developed and applied to a case study on giant buttercup in dairy pastures. This approach accounts for probable temporal changes in both the geographic extent of the weed and in producer prices and indicates annuitized costs (over the period 2012–2030) of $166 million, $259 million and $592 million for rates of spread of 144, 60 and 20 years for giant buttercup to invade all dairy regions in New Zealand. Comparing the aggregate cost of all weeds to the three productive sectors estimated from the historical data with these ‘dynamic’ estimates for the one species in dairy pasture, indicates that the historical data provide a substantial underestimate of the true aggregate cost of weeds to New Zealand’s agricultural economy.     

Patterns and processes of pasture to crop conversion in Brazil: Evidence from Mato Grosso State

The rate and location of cropland expansion onto cattle pastures in Brazil could affect global food security, climate change, and economic growth. We combined mapping, statistical modeling, and qualitative methods to investigate patterns and processes of pasture to crop conversion (P2C) in Mato Grosso State (MT), Brazil, a globally important center of agricultural production. P2C land constituted 49% of cropland expansion from 2000 to 2013. For a random sample of ̃250 m pixels in MT, we estimated a regression model skilled at predicting P2C land in the rest of the state as a function of cattle ranching suitability, cropping suitability, and P2C conversion costs. Surprisingly, just 1/7 of pasture agronomically suitable for cultivation had undergone P2C. Hedonic regressions revealed that agronomic characteristics of land were associated with less than 20% of the variation in cropland suitability. Instead, the majority of the variation stemmed from a combination of proximity to agricultural infrastructure, characteristics of neighboring lands, and time fixed effects. The weak relationship between agronomic characteristics of land and P2C location suggests a less certain future for P2C than projections made with agronomic models. Consequentially, complications may arise for greenhouse gas mitigation policies in Brazil predicated on widespread expansion of cropland on pasture vs. natural areas. Our follow-up qualitative research shows that because P2C has often involved land rentals or sales, poorly functioning land institutions may have constrained P2C. Locally poor land quality, omitted from agronomic P2C predictions, can either catalyze or constrain P2C by limiting returns to ranching, farming, or both. Interventions to control rates and locations of P2C should take these insights into account.     

Feeding management of dairy cattle affect grassland dynamics in an alpine pasture

The effect of different supplementary feeding rates for grazing cattle on high-altitude pastures dynamics was evaluated. A field experiment was carried out during three years in a subalpine pasture area of the Eastern Alps. The investigated pasture area was 40?ha, located between 1820 and 2230?m?a.s.l. Two paddocks were chosen in the experiment and two herds of 12 cattle each were kept in the two enclosures for 5 weeks. For the first herd (HS), the supplementary feeding rate was 4.8?kg?OM?head^?1 per day, while for the second herd (LS), the rate was 1.6?kg?OM?head^?1 per day. The amount of herbage consumed by each cattle was determined using the n-alkane technique. To monitor the pasture vegetation dynamics, eight metal exclusion cages were placed in each paddock to determine herbage growth, utilization rates, vegetation composition and animal grazing selectivity. Grazing behaviour of dairy cattle, in terms of herbage intake and species selection was affected by the different feeding rates. Cattle grazing Paddock HS consumed 1.9?kg?OM?day^?1 of herbage less than Paddock LS. In the LS paddock, cattle grazed higher phytomass rates. When the animals were fed by higher concentrate rates, a more selective grazing seemed to significantly increase the pasture necromass component. The lower grazing selectivity favoured the development of species as Nardus stricta and Deschampsia caespitosa, which are well known for their low palatability. Distinct vegetation dynamic patterns were observed, with a reduction of hair grass and an increase of legumes in the Paddock LS.     

The drivers of sugarcane expansion in Goiás,Brazil

Between 2003 and 2013, sugarcane area expanded six-fold, from 142,000 ha to 847,000 ha, in Goiás State and the Federal District, Brazil. And while there has been much research on land-use dynamics of sugarcane expansion in established sugarcane growing regions, little is known about the dynamics associated with its expansion in sugarcane frontiers like Goiás. Understanding these dynamics provides critical information for environmental, economic, and political decisions. Here, we investigate the agricultural land-use change dynamics associated with sugarcane production in Goiás and interrogate the relationship between biophysical, institutional, and logistical factors associated with sugarcane expansion. Our results demonstrate that pasture is seven times more likely to be converted to sugarcane than soy, and most new sugarcane area was not sourced in native Cerrado vegetation. Although there exist few biophysical limitations to sugarcane expansion, capital, infrastructure, and institutions constrain production. Lastly, we show that areas where soy is currently cultivated may be converted to sugarcane in the future given the expansion of transportation and sugarcane infrastructure. Thus, we suggest incentivizing the cultivation of sugarcane on degraded pastures and supporting increased pasture stocking rates to ensure continued protection of both natural vegetation and food production while supporting the expansion of sugarcane in the state.     

From weed to wealth? Prospects for medic pastures in the Mediterranean farming system of north-west Syria

Medic (Medicago spp.) pastures are widely grown in rotation with dryland cereal crops in Mediterranean climate zones of Australia. Attempts since the 1960's to introduce this system to Mediterranean west Asia and north Africa (the native region of medic) have not lead to significant adoption; farmers in the region recognize medic, but as a weed and natural pasture plant. This first detailed economic evaluation of the rotational medic system was conducted using a whole-farm linear programming model based on the agricultural system of north-west Syria. The model represents in detail impacts of rotation on yields, labor requirements of alternative farm activities, availability of family and hired labor, subsistence income requirements, livestock feed sources and uses at different times and a choice of sheep stocking rates. Biological data for the analysis are based on a large six-year cropping and grazing experiment near Aleppo on terra-rossa soil with rainfall mainly in winter and averaging about 330 mm annually. The trial compared a dryland medic-wheat system and traditional two-year rotations of wheat with: fallow, watermelon, lentil and vetch. Results indicate that, given current prices and yields from the trial, medic is less profitable than traditional rotations. The model was used to investigate situations in which medic would be economically preferred. Selection of a medic rotation by the model was found to be particularly sensitive to the area of the farm and the price of labor. On small farms, labor availability per hectare is high, favouring the production of labor intensive crops such as lentil and watermelon. On larger farms, labor costs of these enterprises are substantial, increasing the relative profitability of medic, especially if labor prices increase. Interestingly, the relative desirability of medic is more sensitive to its impact on subsequent wheat crops than to the level of pasture production. We also found that modest increases in the prices of sheep products (especially milk) have a major impact on the economic performance of medic. These insights will allow improved focusing and targeting of future research and extension activities.     

175 years of adaptation: North Scandinavian Sámi reindeer herding between government policies and winter climate variability (1835–2010)

Unmanaged wild reindeer populations tend to follow cyclical behaviour, and domesticated reindeer populations often show cyclical behaviour, too. In this contribution, we intend to use the long-term development of two areas in northern Scandinavia to explore how externally imposed policies and winter climate variability have influenced the reindeer herd size and pasture state. We do this by comparing the development in two areas that are rather similar ecologically: Torneträsk in northernmost Sweden and Kautokeino (Vest-Finnmark) in northernmost Norway.Climatic and ecological studies as well as commons theory have been useful tools for understanding the inherent socio-ecological dynamics. Especially the time from 1850 to 1940 includes several short periods when historical sources document combinations of events such as (1) closure of national borders to cross-border herding migrations, (2) relocations of herder households, (3) overutilization of lichen pastures, (4) catastrophic winters, and (5) forced herd reductions. The high number of incidents and actions during this era makes it challenging to disentangle causes and effects.Our main findings are based on the documented effects of international events and consequent government policies and actions in Fennoscandia from 1852 to 1921 which had dramatic consequences, including excessive numbers of reindeer and people in northernmost Sweden, leading to more or less forced relocation southwards in Sweden with cascading effects in large parts of Sápmi. We have found clear indications that this contributed to overutilization of lichen pastures and beyond any reasonable doubt must also have reinforced the effects of several of the documented catastrophic climatic events, especially in areas like Torneträsk to where many families from Finnmark were relocated. From the first border closure in 1852 to the Second World War it thus seems as if the shocks from the political events were the main factor determining the development of reindeer herding in large parts of Sápmi. The political and administrative history is well documented. Our climate data are a unique compilation of climate events based on multiple sources during two centuries, which contribute to the validity of our findings. Our pasture state data from the late-1800s are also based on several sources which support each other.Two new factors influencing the general cyclical pattern have arisen more recently. Motorization has increased the possibilities for intense pasture utilization and the amplitudes between minimum and maximum herd sizes, while supplementary feeding has the potential to limit the effects of winter climate variability and lichen overutilization.     

Effect of land-use change on soil fertility characteristics within water-stable aggregates of two cultivated soils in northern Iran

Forest and pastureland soils in highland of northern Iran are being seriously degraded and destructed due to extensive agricultural activities. These land use changes are usually accompanied by decreasing in concentrations of soil organic carbon and nutrients and also deterioration of soil structure in these regions. However, studies on concentration of nutrients and carbohydrates in soils suggest that the location of nutrients within aggregates of each size should be determined. This study was to evaluate the nutrient elements and carbohydrate distributions within water-stable aggregates (WSA) of virgin forest and pasture lands under different land uses in Alborz maintain range, northern Iran. In September 2006, soil samples were collected from depths of 0–20 cm in Typic Haploxerolls soils. The overall pattern indicated that the mean weight diameter (MWD) and WSA were greater in the virgin pasture and forest soils compared with the adjacent cultivated (ex-forest and ex-pasture) soils and aggregates of >1.0 mm size were dominant in the virgin soils, whereas the cultivated soils comprised aggregates of the size ≤0.5 mm. Distribution of organic carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and carbohydrates within the WSA showed preferential enrichment of these parameters in the macroaggregate fraction (4.75–1.0 mm) for the virgin soils and microaggregate fraction (>0.25 mm) for the exposed soils. Cultivation decreased the concentration of carbohydrates by 23.6% and 20.6% in ex-forest and ex-pasture lands, respectively. Average distribution of total exchangeable bases within WSA showed that the cultivation of forest and pasture soils significantly led to reduce in these nutrient in the 4.75–2.0 mm fraction and increase in concentration of these exchangeable cations in <0.25 mm fractions. In general, results indicated that cultivation significantly led to 71% and 6% reductions in total exchangeable bases within the 4.75–2.0 and <0.25 mm aggregate fraction, respectively, for virgin soil. Since smaller aggregates are preferentially removed by erosion, this study emphasizes the need for sustainable soil management practices that they will minimize nutrient loss when forest or pastures lands are converted to croplands.     

基于偏序集DEA理论的中国奶牛养殖效率区域差异及优化研究

目的 通过设定精饲料数量、劳动力等5个投入指标和主产品产量、净利润2个产出指标,分别对我国各省大规模、中规模、小规模和散养4类养殖规模下的奶牛养殖效率及偏序关系进行测算,总结传统奶源带区域奶牛养殖效率发展特点,帮助无效率地区确定学习对象以实现效率优化改进。方法 文章运用DEA-CCR模型测算2009—2019年中国4类奶牛养殖规模下各地生产效率,利用基于偏序集理论的CCR模型测算相同养殖规模下各省区的偏序关系,并形成偏序关系图。结果 2009年以来我国奶牛养殖以发展大、中规模为主,到2019年两种规模有效率养殖地区占比均超过32%,且中规模养殖地区在高效养殖的稳定性方面表现更好。传统奶源带区域中,大城市郊区已无小规模和散养形式,其大、中规模养殖的效率在各区域中都表现优异;东北和内蒙古地区的小规模养殖和散养效率最高;地处中原的山西省、西北的新疆和甘肃以及南方的广西等地都是养殖效率表现突出的省区。结论 因奶源带区域内部各省区发展的同质性较低,无效率省区在提高投入—产出效率方面须更多地进行跨区域经验学习,具体优秀示范养殖省区有：大规模养殖下的新疆、甘肃、河北、北京、山西、湖北等;中规模养殖下的黑龙江、山西、天津、北京、吉林等;小规模养殖下的黑龙江、湖南;以及散养方式下的新疆、吉林、湖南、山西等。     

Geographic disparities in rural land appreciation in a transforming economy: Chile, 1980 to 2007

This paper reports on a research effort to gather and analyze rural land value data during a period of unprecedented growth in Chilean agriculture. This information is important to understand the geographical distribution of gains associated with the transformation of the rural sector during a period of rapid development, trade liberalization and transition toward a predominant emphasis on export earnings in agriculture. A large set of data of rural land transactions for 1980, 1990, 1997 and 2007 were collected from a sample of land registry offices. Results show notable declines in the physical size of transactions, significant average annual rates of increase in real per-hectare values, and a small-parcel premium for rural land associated with non-farm land use. Overall real land values have increased faster than the average annual growth rates in the agricultural sector’s value added, suggesting that land owners have gained proportionately more than other claimants to sectoral income. Tests show significant geographic disparities in annual rates of land appreciation across regions and municipalities. Consistent with differential net gains due to integration into world markets and the geographic heterogeneity of suitability for different land uses, northern areas, with greater emphasis on export-oriented crops, have experienced the highest average rates of annual real per-hectare value growth, in the order of 7 percent, while southern areas, emphasizing traditional crops and pastures/livestock, have experienced growth rates of half that. Geographic disparities are also explained by proximity to urban population and income centers.     

The Calculation of Returns to Research in Distorted Markets

Most of the empirical literature calculating rates of return to publicly sponsored research assumes that research is the only relevant government intervention. For most countries this assumption is untenable. This paper shows that improperly measuring government induced market distortions can severely bias research rate of return calculations. If the interaction between successful research and other government interventions increases the cost of the other interventions, then neglecting market distortions unambigously increases the calculated rate of return. Three examples of government induced distortions show that the magnitude of the upward bias in calculated rates of return can be extremely large - in some cases more than 100 percentage points. A normative implication is that governments should account for interactions between research and price interventions when determining research support levels. A positive implication is that existing government research funding patterns are more readily explainable as reasonable behavior by a government that accounts for these interactions.     

Research returns redux: a meta-analysis of the returns to agricultural R&D

A total of 289 studies of returns to agricultural R&D were compiled and these provide 1821 estimates of rates of return. After removing statistical outliers and incomplete observations, across the remaining 1128 observations the estimated annual rates of return averaged 65 per cent overall — 80 per cent for research only, 80 per cent for extension only, and 47 per cent for research and extension combined. These averages reveal little meaningful information from a large body of literature, which provides rate-of-return estimates that are often not directly comparable. This study was aimed at trying to account for the differences. Several features of the methods used by research evaluators matter, in particular assumptions about lag lengths and the nature of the research-induced supply shift.     

The economic impact of bean disease resistance research in Honduras

This paper presents evidence of recent adoption rates of disease resistant bean varieties (RVs), the farm‐level benefits of RV adoption, and the ex post rate of return to disease resistant bean research in Honduras. Results from a farm‐level survey in 2001 in the two principal bean‐producing regions of the country show that 41–46% of bean farmers (depending upon the season) have adopted an RV, and that adoption is neutral with respect to farm‐size and market orientation. An expected utility framework was used to estimate the farm‐level benefits of RV adoption, using a combination of experimental trial and farm‐level survey data. Adopters gain the equivalent of 7–16% (depending on the variety) in bean income from the yield loss averted through RV use. The ex post rate of return to disease resistant bean research in Honduras from 1984 to 2010 is 41.2%.     

Public preferences for pasture landscapes in Germany—A latent class analysis of a nationwide discrete choice experiment

Biodiversity, landscape aesthetics and grazing livestock have considerable relevance for agricultural production, however rarely considered in public landscape preferences research. This paper studies public preferences for pasture usage by the means of a discrete choice experiment using a representative sample of 449 individuals from Germany. Graphical representations of the choice sets were used to assess the preferences for the presence of livestock and typical pasture landscape elements. To account for preference heterogeneity, the paper utilised a latent-class logit model. Four different latent classes were identified. The results showed different preferences between the latent classes, not only in terms of the magnitude of the estimated parameters, but also in terms of the parameter signs. This indicated that there are multiple types of preferred pasture landscapes. Within the groups, the preference for livestock presence did not depend on its density. Furthermore, it was found that point elements were more important for the landscape preference than linear elements. The class membership probabilities were influenced by multiple sociodemographic variables, including the individual’s residence.     

The Calculation of returns to research in distorted markets: Comment

In a recent article, Oehmke reported that a high internal rate of return for investment in research when the interaction between research and price policy costs was disregarded could become very low or even negative when the effects of research on the costs of price policy were considered. In this paper, the social returns from research in the presence of the price policies considered by Oehmke are reexamined using a simple geometric approach. The analysis suggests that an output subsidy in a small importing economy, an output subsidy in a closed economy, and a target price in a large exporting economy will on Oehmke's assumptions - cause only small reductions in the internal rate of return from investment in research. This implies that the apparent underinvestment by governments in agricultural research cannot be explained away by a large upward bias, known to governments, in measured rates of return due to failure to account for interactions between research and the costs of price policy measures.     

Recalibrating the reported returns to agricultural R&D: what if we all heeded Griliches?*

Zvi Griliches’ seminal analysis of hybrid corn spawned a large literature seeking to quantify and demonstrate the value of agricultural research and development (R&D) investments. The most important metric for quantifying the rate of return to R&D emerging from this literature is the internal rate of return (IRR), even though Griliches was sceptical of its usefulness as a metric in this context. An alternative metric, also reported by Griliches but not as commonly used in the subsequent returns‐to‐research literature, is the benefit–cost ratio (BCR). We assess how the implications of the returns to agricultural R&D literature may have differed if the BCR had become the standard rather than the IRR. We reveal that the IRR and BCR produce substantially different rankings of agricultural R&D projects, differences that persist even under various commodity and geographical aggregations of the BCR and IRR estimates. The median across 2,627 reported IRRs is 37.5 per cent per year. Using data gleaned from 492 research evaluation studies, we developed and deployed a methodology to impute 2,126 BCRs (median of 5.4) and modified internal rates of returns (MIRRs, median of 16.4 per cent per year) assuming a uniform 10 per cent per year discount rate and a 30 year research timeline.     

Identifying deforestation attractors and patterns of fragmentation for seasonally dry tropical forest in central Veracruz,Mexico

Seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF) are exposed to numerous threats stemming from human activity and are considered a high conservation priority globally. Nevertheless, planning the conservation, management, and restoration of forests requires a detailed regional understanding of current forest distribution, and patterns and attractors of deforestation. We explored SDTF cover in the state of Veracruz, Mexico, where little is known about this type of forest since it was erroneously considered to have been eliminated and thus has not be included in recent conservation planning in Mexico. A time-series of land use and land cover (LULC) maps, based on Landsat imagery from 1973 (MSS), 1990 (TM), and 2000 (ETM+), was used to analyze historical patterns of deforestation and fragmentation of SDTF in a priority watershed in central Veracruz. Stepwise logistic regression was used to identify the main attractors of forest loss. Maps based on higher resolution SPOT imagery (2007–2008) were used to determine the current extent of SDTF. Results from our LULC analysis revealed landscapes that were consistently dominated (>50%) by some combination of intensified land use including cattle pastures, rain-fed and irrigated agricultural lands, with closed SDTF cover fluctuating from 11.3 to 9.26% during the study period (1973–2007). Annualized rates of forest loss between Landsat images (1973 vs. 2000; −2.02%) and between Landsat and SPOT images (1973 vs. 2007; −0.59), were moderate to low, with historical records suggesting that most deforestation occurred more than a century ago before the Mexican revolution. Nevertheless, rates of forest loss varied considerable between different time periods, with slight reforestation initially (1.55%; 1973–1990), followed by a marked decline (−8.08%; 1990–2000), and finally a noticeable increases in forest cover (4.92%; 2000–2007) that corresponds with changes in public policy and trends in population migration. The number of forest patches tripled between 1973 and 2000 and the mean forest patch area decreased almost 80% over the same time period. Logistic regression analysis (1973–2000) indicated that the main attractors of closed forest transformation were proximity to gentle slopes, cattle pastures, and the hydraulic infrastructure needed for crop irrigation. Although SDTF is highly fragmented and perturbed, important remnants of this diverse native forest still persists in the region. Our findings are discussed in the context of future conservation and restoration efforts.