PROBLEMS OF DETERMINING AND MEASURING THE RELIABILITY OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Most developing countries have compiled national accounts on a regular basis only for the last few years. It has not yet been possible for them to collect many of the statistics necessary to obtain good coverage of their economic activities by methods which would generally be accepted as reliable. Consequently the checks on reliability imposed by the framework of the national accounts are often absent, and the accounts prepared contain many estimates of doubtful quality. These doubts can usually only be removed as statistics collected by better methods become available. This is proving to be a slow process, partly because of the shortage of trained statistical staff and the competing demands of social and demographic statistics and partly because of the inherent difficulties in collecting good statistics from small businesses and traditional households. The need to define traditional households as producers as well as consumers leads to our demanding extra information from this difficult sector. In addition it is often difficult for the national accounts statistician, and even more so for the user, to find out in the time available exactly how some of the statistics with which he is presented were obtained. When this cannot be done it is impossible to assess their reliability. Thus assessing the overall reliability of national accounts in developing countries for even a limited range of uses is at present largely a matter of personal judgment. The information necessary to make more objective assessments rarely exists and hence the problems which developed countries face in using such information are not yet within the experience of most developing countries.     

PRICE STATISTICS REQUIRED BY DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FOR NATIONAL ACCOUNTING PURPOSES

In both developed and developing countries, the national accounting statistician who wishes to establish a composite set of values in current and base year prices is faced with a series of difficulties arising from a lack of indicators which are adequate for relating quantities and values within the national accounting framework. Consequently, ad hoc solutions are extensively adopted and use is made of price data which in the majority of cases have been collected for completely different purposes. The inter-relationship of prices, quantities and values fundamental to the compatibility of the national accounts can therefore be, and often is, a rather tenuous one. In the case of many developing countries, the situation is accentuated by a very volatile behaviour of prices, a greater impact of price change and a much greater scarcity of useable statistical material. In addition, since structural change is frequently implicit in a development process, the pattern of values and of prices is often variable and irregular—this in turn creates problems in determining relative importance, in assigning weights and in imputing for prices of items not directly entering into the calculation of the indicators.
This paper analyses the series which are most commonly available, it points out the major deficiencies or limitations and it attempts to formulate a few guide-lines for determining priorities called for in an integrated network of price statistics.     

PROBLEMS OF INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTING AGGREGATES BETWEEN COUNTRIES WITH DIFFERENT ECONOMIC SYSTEMS

This paper discusses a number of problems arising in comparisons of levels of national accounting aggregates between countries with different economic systems, notably between countries with market economies and countries with centrally planned economies. It considers problems arising from differences in the national accounting concepts used and problems arising from institutional differences, both of which are viewed as relating to the concepts on which the comparison should be based and the adjustment of national data to these concepts. The final section considers index number problems.     

PROBLEMS OF RECORDING ENVIRONMENTAL PHENOMENA IN NATIONAL ACCOUNTING AGGREGATES

Is it expedient or possible to modify the content of the national accounting aggregates like GDP so that they reflect also the effect of environmental changes like pollution and noise–this is the question the author tries to answer. He points to some analogies with other national accounting problems, where the basic question is also how far should we go in modifying our measuring scale, the market price, in order to get closer to the measurement of some kind of economic welfare. Reviewing the various possibilities for modifications of the national accounting concepts, the author does not propose any substantial changes. The harm done to the environment as such cannot be measured in monetary terms. The cost of prevention is not a good approximation of the harm done to the environment, since the correlation between these two variables is not strong enough. Nor is the cost of restoration a good measure of the disfunction. Some damages, like noise, lung cancer caused by air pollution, cannot be restored. If–as proposed by some authors–the compensation for the disfunction (e.g. a swimming pool built to compensate for the water pollution) were deducted from GDP, this would not provide a good solution either, since the trouble is the disfunction itself and not the remedying action. (If no swimming pool is built, there is nothing to be deducted?) On the whole, there is no sufficiently sound basis for evaluating the monetary value of environmental damages. The author attaches great importance to getting more information on environmental phenomena. However, he prefers to supplement the national accounting information by a series of physical, chemical, biological, etc., indicators, instead of changing the national accounting concepts themselves.     

SUBSISTENCE ACTIVITIES IN THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO LATIN AMERICA*

This paper presents some preliminary findings from a research study by the OECD Development Centre into the treatment of subsistence activities in national accounts. It summarizes the results of a questionnaire on country practices, and reports on the findings with respect to shares of non-monetary production in GDP, methods of estimation, and usefulness of the resulting estimates. Among the 48 developing countries covered, the share of non-monetary value added in total GDP ranges from over 40 percent for the poorer countries of Africa to 5 percent or less for the more advanced countries of Latin America and Southern Europe. In countries where rural living standards are much below those in urban areas, non-monetary activities may be very important to the well-being of a large number of people, even though they form only a small part of GDP, and it is still important to make realistic estimates for subsistence output. Agriculture is obviously the main item in non-monetary production, accounting often for over 80 percent of the total. Most countries use some kind of “producers' prices” for valuing agricultural output. Few countries now publish separate figures for non—monetary activities. For many countries, doing so would involve a considerable amount of extra work, but for a number of planning purposes it does seem important to distinguish subsistence activities separately.     

NATIONAL ACCOUNTING AS A PLANNING TOOL IN LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: LESSONS OF EXPERIENCE

This paper is directed at the following question: How far is the national accounting system as developed in the industrially advanced countries and recommended by the United Nations applicable and useful to countries at an early stage of development? In order to examine the suitability of this tool, the nature of economic policy decisions and their dependence on macro-statistical constructs are analysed, the emphasis being on planning as actually undertaken in the field or going to be undertaken in the near future and not on planning activities as possibly ought to be attempted. The conclusion reached, based upon personal experience in Africa, the Caribbean area, Brazil and Venezuela, both as “producer” and “user” of data, is that planning is mainly limited to the public sector. Comprehensive plans, prepared with the assistance of foreign consultants, were generally forgotten soon after publication, the driving force behind those plans being external pressure by bilateral donors and international agencies and propaganda-prestige motives. Real over-all economic management or consistent medium term planning of the whole economy never appeared to be an important factor in the decision-making process, possibly because those concepts are far too abstract and do not have short-term impact. The role of national accounting should therefore be limited to the provision of a general framework and factual support for public sector planning activities. In practice the United Nations system has been found far too complicated and ambitious, not sufficiently development planning oriented, and not suitable to the limited statistical resources available in the developing countries. The paper recommends the publication of several detailed “case studies” in national accounting, hoping that those studies might help to identify types of accounting systems appropriate to different existing constellations. In the meantime a drastic scaling down of the United Nations system should be undertaken; we should try to equate demand and supply of relevant information. In the final part, the paper considers planning requirements (timetable and flexibility, information required for a general assessment of the economy, crucial role of the publicsector, relative precision), statistical requirements (resources, data available, priorities, international reporting) and decision-makers’requirements (compactness, simplicity, background information, wishes of external aid donors) and recommends, as an interim measure, a simplified system of national accounts consisting of eight main tables.     

ACCOUNTING FOR CHANGES IN THE HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE*

This article accounts for the boom in homeownership from 1994 to 2005 by examining the roles of demographic changes and mortgage innovations. To measure the impact of these factors, we construct a quantitative general equilibrium overlapping generation model with housing. In the long‐run, mortgage innovation accounts for between 56 and 70% of the increase whereas demographics account for a much smaller portion. We test this result by considering changes in mortgages after 1940. We find that the introduction of the conventional fixed rate mortgage accounts for at least 50% of the observed increase in homeownership during that period.     

PRICE-COST MARGINS AND INDUSTRY STRUCTURE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE CASE OF KOREA*

The structure-conduct-performance paradigm is tested using 4-digit SIC Korean industry data for 1981 and 1986. The study investigates whether the observed institutional differences between developed and developing countries affects the performance hypothesis. The results suggest that structure and conduct variables influence price-cost margins in much the same way as they do in developed countries. Nevertheless, the Korean government's credit rationing policies, by creating entry barriers, have the most important effects on industry performance.     

DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTING SYSTEM IN HUNGARY

This paper presents the characteristics of the National Accounting System of Hungary and outlines its development in the last decades and the insufficiencies still existing. Hungary has joined with great interest in the work performed within the frame of the United Nations Statistical Commission concerning the development of the Systems of National Accounts, being interested in applying—as far as possible—the results of the revision of the SNA and MPS in its national practice. The paper first presents a conceptual matrix containing all the major items in the MPS system in order to explain the contents of the items and the interdependencies among them. In this connection a brief account is given of the major differences between the SNA and MPS. The following part of the paper presents the National Accounting System introduced in Hungary in 1968. It is put also within the framework of a matrix, which supplies the items of both the SNA and MPS by means of simple aggregation as well as satisfying the national requirements, so that it is possible to compare the structure and development of the Hungarian economy with those of any other countries. The major differences between the Hungarian system and the current MPS and the revised SNA are then presented.     

NATIONAL ACCOUNTING FOR NON-RENEWABLE NATURAL RESOURCES IN THE MINING INDUSTRIES*

This paper discusses alternatives to current national accounting procedures for non-renewable natural resources in the mining industries. Three alternative approaches to valuing the discovery and use of these resources are compared and alternative estimates for U.S. oil and gas for the period 1948-79 are presented. The focus is on the conceptual and empirical difficulties associated with valuing non-renewable natural resources.     

THE TREATMENT OF EDUCATION IN NATIONAL ACCOUNTING1

It is argued that the conventions of an accounting system, such as the S.N.A., are a matter of convenience. The treatment of education as a current expenditure, instead of as a form of capital formation, derives from the Keynesian system, and is not appropriate for dynamic problems of developing countries, where weaknesses in education are often the main “bottleneck” in the process of development. In such countries, expenditure on education clearly yields its benefits mainly in the longer run. To treat this as a consumption item biases policy in the direction of using financial resources for fixed capital rather than human investment, and may cause aid agencies to penalize countries which expand their educational systems. A similar problem arises on other expenditures such as health, but the case for treating them as investment is not so strong. To treat educational expenditure as part of capital formation logically requires two major changes. First education needs to be removed from private and public consumption, and for this purpose a fairly broad definition of what is education should be used. Secondly, the stock of educational capital should be valued. The valuation problems are, however, severe. Variations in cost components make historic cost of little value as a yardstick, and calculations of future returns are fraught with difficulties. Using replacement costs, which seems the best method, involves the construction of education profiles in physical terms which can then be valued by present or by standardised costs. The depreciation of human capital through mortality and retirement can be allowed for by applying national average rates to these physical profiles. Switching educational expenditure from current to capital accounts involves no serious practical problem. However, although there should logically be an allowance for depreciation on human capital, this is not recommended; single monetary measures of educational stock are not very meaningful, and this would involve changing the definition of “net” aggregates. Development of statistics of educational stocks and flows in physical terms—the beginnings of “demographic accounting” fully integrated with the rest of national accounting—is strongly advocated.     

THE POLITICAL CHOICE OF THE EXCHANGE RATE REGIME*

The purpose of this paper is to present a model in which the choice of the optimal exchange rate regime is envisaged in a political setting. We consider a country whose voting population comprises three types of agents, importers, exporters and speculators, who select their position on exchange rate policy according to welfare maximization. As a result, well-defined interest groups are shown to emerge. Each coalition makes contributions to one of two political candidates running for political office in support for their optimal policy intervention. When policy pronouncements by the two candidates are made in terms of exchange rate volatility, the equilibrium consists of two extremes: a fixed versus flexible exchange regime, the latter with bounded volatility [JEL D72, F31].     

MODELLING ASYMMETRIC EXCHANGE RATE DEPENDENCE*

We test for asymmetry in a model of the dependence between the Deutsche mark and the yen, in the sense that a different degree of correlation is exhibited during joint appreciations against the U.S. dollar versus during joint depreciations. We consider an extension of the theory of copulas to allow for conditioning variables, and employ it to construct flexible models of the conditional dependence structure of these exchange rates. We find evidence that the mark–dollar and yen–dollar exchange rates are more correlated when they are depreciating against the dollar than when they are appreciating.     

THE POLITICAL INFLUENCE OF FOREIGN FIRMS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Foreign firms are likely to attempt to shape host government policies in their favour, as the profitability of MNE foreign affiliates largely depends on the business environment in which they operate. Based on data from the World Business Environment Survey, this paper investigates the political influence of foreign firms in 48 developing countries. It is found that foreign firms derive substantial fiscal and regulatory advantages from their political influence and from their ability to negotiate superior entry conditions.     

PROBLEMS OF MEASURING CAPITAL IN LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

The general problems of distinguishing between theoretical concepts and practical measures concerning capital are considered and the difference between various stock and flow measures of capital and their respective uses is defined. The qualifications and limitations to these measures in the interpretation of output changes are also discussed. Attention is concentrated on the initial, basic problem of how to measure gross capital stock and the special difficulties involved in using the perpetual inventory simulation method and census procedures in less developed countries to derive such estimates are broadly defined. Some of the special problems encountered in an attempt to undertake an inventory of industrial capital assets in Lesotho are also referred to and the paper concludes by expressing the view that there are at present far more important issues demanding higher statistical priority in less developed countries than the evaluation of capital stocks.