A NOTE ON SOME DIFFICULTIES IN RESPONSE ANALYSIS

Some empirical problems which tend to receive inadequate attention in response analysis are discussed. These include the variation not explained by fitted production functions, the sensitivity of optima and profits to price changes, the cost of developing production functions and the value in using them.     

A NOTE ON DISTRIBUTED LAG MODELS OF MAIZE AND WHEAT PRODUCTION RESPONSE: THE KENYAN CASE*

In this note the supply responses in maize and wheat production are estimated from distributed lag models. The Nerlove model and the Fisher distributed lag model fit Kenyan data but more complicated models, like the polynomial lag model, do not. The calculated price elasticities suggest that Kenyan large-scale farmers are highly responsive to price changes. Some policy implications are drawn from the analysis.     

A NOTE ON HIDDEN GAINS AND LOSSES OF BUFFER STOCK SCHEMES FOR WOOL

This note is concerned with one aspect of the methodology for examining the gains and losses of a buffer stock scheme for wool. It is shown that it is incorrect to debit interest due on capital tied up in stocks of wool without, at the same time, crediting a portion of this to the grower. The errors that can occur in calculations that do not take account of the charged time distribution of growers' receipts are demonstrated.     

A METHOD FOR EVALUATING SUPPLY RESPONSE TO PRICE UNDERWRITING

In this paper a method for evaluating the supply response of individual producers to a price underwriting scheme is presented. The method includes precise formulae to take account of the impact of price underwriting on the producer's uncertain conditions. The Australian Wheat Board's guaranteed minimum price scheme is taken as a specific example of price underwriting in practice. Results show the scheme to lead to only relatively small supply responses. The impact on producer behaviour of an increase in price uncertainty in the presence of an underwriting scheme is also demonstrated in the paper.     

NOTE ON HARMONIC MOTION AND THE COBWEB THEOREM*

This note critically examines some recent studies which have rejected the cobweb theorem as an explanation of agricultural production cycles in favour of an alternative model, harmonic motion. It is argued that the only fundamental distinction between the two models lies in the behavivoural decision rule which they assume, and that some of the arguments put forward by proponents of the harmonic motion model are illusory.     

A NOTE ON THE USE OF A MODIFIED INPUT-OUTPUT MULTIPLIER FOR LAND USE EVALUATION*

The modified input-output multiplier is proposed. Some limitations of the multiplier and the results of its application to four major land use industries are discussed.     

WEAK SEPARABILITY AND A TEST FOR THE SPECIFICATION OF INCOME IN DEMAND MODELS WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE DEMAND FOR MEAT IN AUSTRALIA*

Most studies of the demand for meat in Australia have used some measure of total income or expenditure, but two recent studies have assumed weak separability of a meat group and used expenditure on the meat group instead. These specification differences are of interest to the extent that they affect the economic interpretation, goodness-of-fit, elasticity estimates, predictive performance or hypothesis tests in empirical demand equations. In this paper, non-nested hypothesis testing procedures are used to test the alternative specifications of the income variable and the hypothesis of separability. The results favour the use of the expenditure variable implied by separability but are mixed concerning whether separability holds.     

A FURTHER NOTE ON THE MEASUREMENT OF EFFICIENCY AND ECONOMIES OF FARM SIZE

Efficiency has a precise meaning in the case of the optimally conditions associated with the perfectly competitive norm. However, the efficiency concept loses a precise meaning and much of its usefulness under real world conditions of uncertainty and costly information since efficiency is inescapably evaluative and cannot be defined and measured independently of the goals and knowledge of the decision maker. Similarly, the concept ‘economies of size’ is shown to lose its normative significance when specialised resources and other unique aspects of the firm are taken into account. Although the economist has no objective procedure by which to measure the efficiency of entrepreneurial activity, it is argued that in the real world of uncertainty and disequilibrium, there is always scope for entrepreneurial activity in the sense of unexploited profit opportunities.     

THE ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND SYSTEM: AN APPLICATION TO FOOD AND MEAT GROUPS FOR FRANCE

This paper presents the results from estimating an Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) for food and meat for France. Since AIDS is indirectly non-additive and consistent with the requirements of demand theory as well as having other desirable characteristics, it is an appropriate choice for examining food and meat demand. A particular advantage of AIDS is that its linear approximation is an excellent first-order approximation to the complete system and this version is used in the present paper. Income and price elasticities are presented, calculated at both their mean value and at different points to examine possible changes in patterns of demand behaviour.     

A NOTE ON THE PIG CYCLE IN AUSTRALIA

Spectral analysis is used to test hypotheses relating to regular four-year cycles in the Australian pig industry. The data point to the existence of annual cycles in production, slaughterings and prices, but four-year cycles are only evident in pig prices. Relationships between these series are also examined by cross-spectral analysis     

农地确权数据成果汇交管理系统设计与实现

［目的］自2009年中国农村土地承包经营权确权登记颁证工作展开以来,随着部分试点县确权任务的完成,国家对农地确权数据成果提交内容及程序做出了部署。为辅助国家级大数据量农地确权数据成果汇交工作的展开,支撑农地信息平台建设,提高汇交工作效率,科学管理数据,研发了农地确权数据成果汇交管理系统。［方法］文章采用政策规范信息化法,梳理汇交业务流程,形成系统核心功能。该系统基于政策需求和农地大数据应用背景,在地理信息系统支持下,采用浏览器/服务器（B/S）模式实现信息录入、数据管理和分析等。［结果］（1）系统实现了农地确权数据成果汇交信息录入、审核、进度查询,对数据汇交状态进行高效处理等功能。（2）采用人机交互模式,能根据需求按照不同时间、空间区域和指标,挖掘分析汇交业务情况和数据情况。（3）汇交进度、汇交通过率和汇交率能反映区域汇交工作质量。［结论］系统实现了政策性业务的信息化和可视化管理,有效提高了数据汇交工作效率,为开展农地大数据应用提供基础地理信息数据保障,并为各省市自建农地确权数据成果汇交管理系统提供参考。     

AN APPLICATION OF MARKOV CHAINS TO FARM TYPE STRUCTURAL DATA IN ENGLAND AND WALES

Markov Chain methods of projection are applied to farm type structural data derived from the returns in the Annual June Agricultural Census in England and Wales. Three sets of projections, using different assumptions, are made of the numbers of holdings by farm type in 1969 and of the movement of holdings between farm type during 1968/69. These are compared with the actual Census returns for 1969. Use of a four-year average transition probability matrix gives the best overall results on the basis of that comparison and this matirx was then used to project farm type structure in England and Wales for 1971 and 1973. These projections indicate that between June 1969 and June 1973 the number of all holdings with 275 or more standard man days (SMD) will decline; those classified as Mixed, Livestock, and Pigs and Poultry are likely to show the largest proportional declines. Some 50 per cent of holdings are likely to be below the 275 SMD limit. Since the assumptions made may not be fulfilled in every respect, it is unlikely that the outcome in 1971 and 1973 will be precisely as predicted, but the pattern and direction of the projections are likely to hold.     

LAND USE PERMITS AS AN ALTERNATIVE TO FERTILISER AND LEACHING TAXES FOR THE CONTROL OF NITRATE POLLUTION

Legislation emanating from the European Community is establishing pressures to take action to reduce the level of nitrates in water, and the principles established towards environmental management indicate an emphasis on prevention rather than treatment. This paper analyses three possible approaches by means of controls on fertilisers, on nitrate leaching and on land use. These are incorporated into a linear programming model of a catchment in Cambridgeshire. The results indicate the superior cost-effectiveness of controls over leaching and the severe impact which taxes would have on farm incomes. A system of permits on land use is found to be relatively cost-effective and to offer an administratively feasible alternative.