Forecasting performances of three automated modelling techniques during the economic crisis 2007–2009

In this work we consider the forecasting of macroeconomic variables during an economic crisis. The focus is on a specific class of models, the so-called single hidden-layer feed-forward autoregressive neural network models. What makes these models interesting in the present context is the fact that they form a class of universal approximators and may be expected to work well during exceptional periods such as major economic crises. Neural network models are often difficult to estimate, and we follow the idea of White (2006) of transforming the specification and nonlinear estimation problem into a linear model selection and estimation problem. To this end, we employ three automatic modelling devices. One of them is White’s QuickNet, but we also consider Autometrics, which is well known to time series econometricians, and the Marginal Bridge Estimator, which is better known to statisticians. The performances of these three model selectors are compared by looking at the accuracy of the forecasts of the estimated neural network models. We apply the neural network model and the three modelling techniques to monthly industrial production and unemployment series from the G7 countries and the four Scandinavian ones, and focus on forecasting during the economic crisis 2007–2009. The forecast accuracy is measured using the root mean square forecast error. Hypothesis testing is also used to compare the performances of the different techniques.     

The impact of the economic cycle on fatal injuries. The case of UK 1971–2007

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of the economic cycle on workplace accidents. In particular, the effect of the usual factors of the economic cycle (GDP per capita, Unemployment) is examined along with the effect of working hours (to account for flexible employment) on fatal injuries (to exclude the effect of under-reporting data) for the period 1971?C2007 in UK. Detailed multiple regression analysis is applied, which indicates a controversial and inelastic relation of GDP per capita (negative) and unemployment rate (positive), but also an elastic relation of working hours (positive) to fatal injuries. Further research in data of various countries is proposed before arriving to certain conclusions.     

Competitiveness and entrepreneurship rate in Europe during the economic recovery phase, 2012–2016

Entrepreneurship is key for regional economic development. Regions can offer conditions that promote or limit business innovation activity. As the World Economic Forum points out, promotion and entrepreneurship support have been key factors for European countries to recover lost competitiveness. This study analyzes countries’ competitiveness level during the economic recovery phase using data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) and the Word Economic Forum Report for the 2012–2016 period. The sample comprises 19 countries of the European Union. The independent variable is Total Entrepreneurship Activity rate (TEA) and the dependent variables are the 12 pillars that measure competitiveness in the GEC Index. The results show that, over time, the macroeconomic environment conditions necessity entrepreneurship but, when the economy recovers, innovation determines the appearance of opportunity entrepreneurship. Differences between countries are less significant regarding entrepreneurial activity and competitiveness; however, patterns for northern and southern Europe still differ.

     

The dynamics of entrepreneurs’ networks in a transitioning economy: the case of Russia

Despite its theoretical and practical importance, the evolution and development of entrepreneurs’ networks has attracted a little attention of researchers. The emerging research literature on this topic found that the dynamics of entrepreneurial networks were contingent upon venture lifecycle, industry and region, and resource needs of the firm. In addition and contrast to the previous research, this article examines the effects of the initial network structure, and firm performance of previous years on the changes in entrepreneurs' network structure, relations, and resources over 4 years. The empirical data is composed of the face-to-face interviews with 75 Russian entrepreneurs in 1995, and the follow-up interviews with 56 original respondents in 1999. I found that the greater the initial network size, the less the increase in network size, strong and weak ties, and resources over time. Further, the findings indicate that revenue growth of previous years predicts the changes in networks in the reverse manner. Thus, I found that the greater the average revenue growth, the less the increase in network size, weak ties, and resources over time.     

Circular economy,the transition of an incumbent focal firm: How to successfully reconcile environmental and economic sustainability?

Circular economy (CE) has garnered increasing attention in political circles and practitioner literature thanks to its potential to overcome the harmful consequences of linear patterns of growth. Nonetheless, the adoption of sustainable practices entails a holistic approach requiring businesses to make significant changes to their production, technologies and stakeholder management. These challenges resulted in limited progress in terms of the practical implementation of CE. This paper addresses the need for more literature focused on the pragmatic aspects of applying this paradigm to incumbent firms. The author presents the journey that Lucart S.p.A., a major European tissue paper manufacturer, has undertaken between 2014 and 2020 to apply CE principles to its practices. Insights from the transformation process, reconstructed through interviews with the firm's management and environmental impact data, suggest that to succeed it takes innovating (plants, products and marketing strategies) and setting up supply chains that reconcile environmental and economic sustainability.     

The measurement of the economic performance of the US Nonfinancial Corporate Business Sector 1946–1990: an application of the shareholder value creation concept

This paper is based upon a juxtaposition of the cash flow-market value performance (alias SVC performance) and historic cost accounting (HC) performance of the US Nonfinancial Corporate Business sector 1946–90. It has two principal objectives: 1. To determine whether, judged on return and variability dimensions, the HC accounting model is an operationally acceptable surrogate for a multiperiod market-based accounting model. 2. To analyse the consequences of HC income-based distributions, i.e., corporate tax, interest and dividend payments based on conventionally-measured corporate income. Three principal conclusions are drawn: i. Notwithstanding their common cash flow component, HC performance indices are not reliable surrogates for SVC performance criteria. The former apparently do not accurately capture changes in corporate valuation and generally understate the variability of market-based returns. ii. The multiperiod HC income of a going concern characteristically overstates its coterminous multiperiod cash flows to a considerable degree. Contrary to common supposition, the former does not therefore constitute a ‘normalized’ or ‘smoothed’ version of a firm's ‘primitive’ cash flows in the sense that the cumulative (multiperiod) values of the two measures tend to converge. iii. As a consequence of ii, HC income and its near relation, taxable earnings, are dubious bases for measuring interest-paying, tax-paying and dividend-paying capacities. Corporate income-distribution decisions based on HC accruals-based profit measures frequently trigger external financing which may cause shareholder wealth losses and wealth transfers from shareholders to lenders. However, ‘fiscal drag’ appears to be the most serious consequence of HC accruals-based income distribution decisions.     

Capital flows and the boom–bust cycle: The case of Estonia

During 2000–2007, Estonia was among the fastest growing emerging market economies, but in late-2008 entered a deep recession. This paper examines shocks, institutions, and policies that have made Estonia's boom–bust cycle so severe. It finds that an open capital account, the prospect for EU entry, and the currency board facilitated massive capital inflows, which led to credit and real estate booms. In late-2008 a domestic slowdown was greatly amplified by the global financial and economic crisis. To resume sustainable growth, the country will need to regain competitiveness and rebalance resources to exports. Estonia's experience underscores the importance for other emerging market economies to retain some flexibility in their macroeconomic frameworks and approach capital account liberalization cautiously.     

Contribution of female human capital in economic growth: an empirical analysis of Pakistan (1972–2012)

This study is to find out an impact of female human capital on economic growth of Pakistan. The study has therefore, used gender separate human capital as an explanatory variable along with other factors, labor force and physical capital. In this regard a composite human capital has been constructed by taking education and health as a proxy for human capital. The long run and short run dynamics among female human capital and economic growth are empirically tested on time series data spread from 1972–2012. Johanson’s co-integration approach has been applied for the long run and Vector Error Correction Model used for the short run relationship. The results show that the long run relationship between female human capital and economic growth is positive and significant. While the short run impact of female human capital on economic growth is positive but statistically insignificant.     

Non-structural and structural models in productivity analysis: study of the British Isles during the 2007–2009 financial crisis

Journal of Productivity Analysis - The paper compares unrestricted and restricted reduced-form estimates of productivity and efficiency performance constructed from non-structural stochastic...     

The firm,the platform and the customer: A “double mangle” interpretation of social media for innovation

The aim of this article was to explore the relationship between human actors and technology in the context of a social media platform, developed by a leading Italian firm in the food industry, and created to keep in contact with its customers, while gathering innovative ideas from them.In order to address these issues, we adopt a theoretical approach that is deeply rooted in Pickering's “mangle” theory, and Jones' subsequent metaphor of “double dance of agency” i.e. human and material agencies. A longitudinal case study has been developed with two rounds of interviews with marketing and R&D managers. A total of 8 recorded interviews, for 22 h overall.We examined conditions in the ongoing functioning of the platform, and considered how the website's dynamic materiality configures and reconfigures the practices and possibilities of different modes of engagement by multiple users (i.e. firm employees and customers) and vice versa. Specifically, dealing with the case of a social media platform developed by a firm to gain clearly defined organizational ends, the entanglement is considered to be double. One entanglement is between the human agency of customers and the material agency of the social media platform. The other is between the human agency of the firm and the material agency of the social media platform, including all actions that human agents (i.e. firm employees) undertake in seeking to channel material agency and shape actions of other human agents, i.e. customers.     

Wage inequality and the labor market impact of economic transformation: Croatia, 1970–2008

In this paper, we examine wage inequality and wage differentials in Croatia from 1970 to 2008 using two long aggregate time series on the distribution of income. We focus especially on changing income inequality related to educational and vocational attainment, changing income inequality within those groups, and how these two components of inequality were affected by the economic transformation from socialism to capitalism. We find that income inequality between groups rose moderately post-transformation, while overall inequality increased more sharply. This finding is consistent with a growing importance of individual rather than group productivity in labor market compensation, a change broadly consistent with the economic transformation of the Croatian labor market.     

The moderating effect of relationship conflict on the creative climate–innovation association: the case of traditional sectors in Spain

A good creative climate is considered one of the main capacities inherent in groups that establish innovation processes. Creative climate emerges from different forces interacting in a way that can be stimulated or inhibited. We identify six dimensions of creative climate. By analysing them jointly, we find that some are more relevant than others for the purposes of innovation. To test the model, we designed an empirical study based on a group of medium-sized firms in traditional sectors in Spain involved in non-high technology innovation. The results show that trust and support are the dimensions that favour innovation and that the dimension of relationship conflict has neither a positive nor a negative effect on innovation. Nevertheless, relationship conflict has a significant positive effect on the autonomy–innovation association and a significant negative effect on the commitment–innovation association. We find synergistic effects between apparently contradictory forces with implications for change and thus for organizational flexibility.     

Disequilibrium models of single family housing prices and transactions: The case of Chicago, 1972–1976

This paper reports a first application of Fair-Jaffee type short-side models of disequilibrium to the intraurban single family housing market in which the housing stock is divided into distinct geographic community areas. Data on single family dwelling transactions and prices in the city of Chicago between 1972–1976 is used to estimate four versions of the Fair-Jaffee type model. The approach allows the simultaneous estimation of the price elasticity of the demand for and offer of existing single family dwellings. The demand elasticity estimate of about −0.5 agrees with other estimates in the literature obtained from equilibrium models. The price elasticity of offer has not been previously estimated for single family dwellings. It is found to be around 2.1. Elasticities are also computed with respect to the mortgage interest rate and the intensity of transactions in the dwelling's community area. The disequilibrium models appear substantially superior to equilibrium specifications. Simulations with the estimated models predict that, in the absence of external shocks, transaction prices and quantities stabilize within 2 years.     

Variation in the average leadership behaviour of managers across countries: Finnish expatriates’ experiences from Germany,Sweden, France and Great Britain

This paper presents the experiences of Finnish expatriates (n=36) from four European countries representing proposed cultural clusters in Western Europe. The focus is on variation in manager–subordinate interaction, i.e. on leadership behaviours of managers across countries. Based on cultural theory and existing comparative research, the national origin of managers is expected to influence their leadership behaviour. By reviewing various earlier comparative studies, working hypotheses are formed about expected variation across countries. The results indicate that variation could be identified in the average styles of managers across countries, although in most cases differences also emerged between expatriates’ reports. This variation in expatriates’ experiences indicates that variation within countries should also be kept in mind when discussing variation across countries. However, it was regarded as possible to form a model of typical characteristics of leadership styles of managers across countries from the perspective of Finnish expatriates based on the identified variation. The implications of variation identified across countries for expatriates and multinational companies are also discussed.     

The intellectual structure of human resource management research: a bibliometric study of the international journal of human resource management, 2000–2012

The purpose of this study is to analyze the existing literature on human resource management (HRM) from all the research papers published in The International Journal of Human Resource Management between 2000 and 2012. The authors apply bibliometric methods to identify the main research lines within this scientific field; in other words, its ‘intellectual structure’. Social network analysis is also used to perform a visualization of this structure. The results of the analysis allow us to define the different research lines or fronts which shape the intellectual structure of research on HRM.     

Explaining the Reactions of Swiss Municipalities to The ‘Amalgamation Wave’: At the crossroad of institutional,economic and political pressures

Abstract

Public sector organizations are simultaneously subject to three types of environmental pressure: institutional, economic and political. How do these pressures influence the strategic behaviour of public organizations when confronted with efficiency-oriented reforms? We focus on the strategic behaviour of Swiss municipalities facing the amalgamation wave: a reform characterized by a strong economic rationale. Results confirm that the success of reforms depends not only on its matching with economic underpinnings. It is also necessary to take the political leadership and the responsibility of reform implementation.     

The actorness of the President of the Republic in Italian foreign policy: a quantitative narrative analysis of two case studies (1999–2013)

In this paper, we address the topic of policy actorness in Italian foreign policy to characterize the understudied role of the President of the Italian Republic (PoR). We apply quantitative narrative analysis (QNA) as the methodological tool of our study, answering two research questions to which the academic literature has so far produced limited responses: (a) whether the PoR can be considered a relevant actor in Italian foreign policy and (b) which factors can affect the Italian PoR’s relevance in foreign policy. Considering the Italian PoR’s Diary as the unit of analysis and source of data, we study the two crucial cases of Ciampi’s presidency (1999–2006) and Napolitano’s first presidency (2006–2013). QNA allows us to quantify and compare, while maintaining an actor-centred approach, the relations of the two PoRs with the most relevant actors in foreign policy. The results of our analyses highlight the relevance of the Italian PoR figure, identifying the main areas of influence of the Italian head of state and their changes over time. We conclude providing a few hypotheses to interpret the outcomes of our analyses on the PoR’s role in Italian foreign policy.

     

Labour under the law: a new law of combination,and master and servant,in 21st‐century Britain?

It is valuable to evaluate contemporary employment law on industrial action and trade unions, and employment protection, in relation to the 19th‐century law of combination, and master and servant. Such a historical comparison, despite differing language and legal sanctions, focuses attention on the goal of legal ‘reform’—the drive to control workers' collective organisations and enhance the managerial prerogative in order to consolidate employers' capacity to determine the terms of the contract of employment or for services, and the content of the pay–effort bargain, that is, the real subordination of labour. It is a form of class struggle from above.