Socio-Political Evaluation of Energy Deployment (SPEED): An integrated research framework analyzing energy technology deployment

Stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases to reduce the risks of climate change requires a major transition in society's energy infrastructure; yet despite a growing sense of urgency, deployment of alternative emerging energy technologies has been slow and uncertain. This paper proposes a systematic, interdisciplinary framework for the integrated analysis of regulatory, legal, political, economic, and social factors that influence energy technology deployment decisions at the state level to enhance awareness of the interconnections and enable improved energy policy and planning and accelerated change in society's energy infrastructure. This framework, Socio-Political Evaluation of Energy Deployment, (SPEED), integrates analysis of laws, regulations, institutions and policy actors as well as varying regional perceptions and levels of awareness about the risks and benefits of emerging energy technologies to facilitate improved understanding of the complex interconnected components of state energy systems. While this framework has been developed with U.S. states as a model, the SPEED framework is generalizable to other countries with different sub-national structures. We present three research methods that could be applied within the SPEED framework that could be particularly helpful in understanding the integrated socio-political influences on energy technology deployment: (1) policy review and analysis, (2) media analysis, and (3) focus groups and structured interviews with key stakeholders. By integrating the fields of technology diffusion, environmental policy, comparative analysis of states, and risk perception, future empirical research conducted within this SPEED framework will improve understanding of the interconnected socio-political influences on energy technology deployment to enable energy modelers, policy-makers, energy professionals, state planners and other stakeholders to develop and implement more effective strategies to accelerate the deployment of emerging energy technologies.     

基于技术存在形式的技术垄断研究

界定了技术垄断的概念并区分了市场垄断和技术产权。以技术存在形式视角分析了技术垄断的形成和结构,以及技术垄断的外在表现,并研究了在市场经济体制下影响技术市场垄断程度的因素。提出了技术的市场垄断程度的评价体系和计算方法,并将市场中技术垄断组织作为一个系统,分析技术创新投入和技术市场垄断程度之间的关系。分析了技术垄断的周期,并从中得出了技术垄断竞争力的构成,推出产业技术联盟的技术垄断竞争力内涵。     

Implementing technology roadmap process in the energy services sector: A case study of a government agency

Energy sector has become increasingly sensitive to emerging new technologies as our society is seeking alternative energy sources. Many utility companies and government agencies have started to implement technology planning processes for roadmapping their future technology portfolios. This paper focuses on technology planning in the government energy services sector. Through a case study research method, the paper documents how technology planning and specifically technology roadmaps were implemented at a federal agency tasked with managing power transmission in the Northwest United States. Three application areas are covered: transmission, renewables and energy efficiency. The paper provides details on the Energy Efficiency Roadmaps. Through the review of the case a technology planning methodology based on technology roadmaps is detailed. Key conclusions were reached on how to manage such process implementation in similar organizations. Some of these conclusions can be generalized to those that are implementing technology planning processes for the first time. We concluded that adoption of such methods would require a longer time than anticipated. Organizational changes to adopt the process will likely reduce the time it takes to deliver the required roadmaps. We also found that a typical sequence of events would be Technology Gap Analysis and Identification of Technology Candidates, Evaluation and Prioritization of Technologies, Roadmapping of Technologies and Allocation of Resources to the R&D Programs or to the direct acquisition of the technologies.     

Technology foresight for a vision of energy sector development in Poland till 2030. Delphi survey as an element of technology foresighting

The security of energy supply at national level is one of the most fundamental missions of every government. This task becomes especially vital in view of the current situation on global energy markets. The planning of technological development in the energy and fuel sectors is a relevant element of energy security strategies. This in turn leads to a more rational and efficient energy use in the future. Technology foresight, which emerged as a proven instrument of technology policy during the 1950s, becomes nowadays one of the essential tools for the creation of the future technological development worldwide. A project entitled: “The Scenarios of Technological Development of Fuel and Energy Sector for National Energy Security” was the first foresight project in the field of energy technologies and at the same time the first technology foresight activity in Poland. This project was being carried out in the period of 2006-2007 by a consortium of research and development institutes on the request of the Polish Ministry of Economy. The aim of the project was to indicate energy and fuel sector development directions in the time horizon up to 2030 and identify key energy technologies of strategic importance. As a result of the foresight activity, technology development scenarios in the energy and fuel sector in Poland as well as corresponding roadmaps for their implementation were formulated. The project results should be helpful in drafting national energy policies and they will indicate priority pathways of research and development (R&D) activities in the next years.The energy foresight project was based mainly on a Delphi method that is nowadays widely applied as a valuable foresight tool. This future-oriented intuitive method was engaged for the qualitative and quantitative assessment of probable developments in the future and for their time scale evaluation as well. In this article, the results of the conducted two-round Delphi survey were presented.     

两阶段视角下高技术产业技术创新能力比较研究

运用SPSS软件,对我国高技术产业在技术研发阶段和技术成果转化阶段的技术创新能力进行了实证研究。结果发现,两阶段高技术产业创新能力高低趋势基本一致。其中,通信设备制造业在两阶段技术创新能力均最高,而办公设备制造业、雷达及配套设备制造业、航天器制造业在两阶段的技术创新能力均最低。提高高技术产业技术创新能力,在技术研发阶段应加大创新投入,提高产业创新产出,从而保证技术成果转化阶段研发成果供给。另外,还应加强技术成果转化阶段的经费投入和创新环境建设。     

技术锁定对创新绩效的影响：创新模式的调节作用

创新是引领发展的第一动力,当前我国经济发展已从创新数量转移到创新质量上来。聚焦技术创新过程中形成的技术锁定效应,运用DEA-SBM测度技术锁定效应并分析其发展趋势,检验技术锁定效应对创新绩效的影响,并寻找解锁技术锁定负效应的调节机制。研究发现：技术锁定效应显著抑制创新绩效提升,在经过一系列稳健性检验后结论依然成立。技术创新模式中的技术引进和自主创新对技术锁定负效应具有显著正向调节作用,且自主创新投入可以深度缓解技术锁定对创新绩效的消极影响;消化吸收能力在技术引进与自主创新之间发挥创新路径枢纽作用,表现为创新模式一体化的调节作用可以显著缓解技术锁定负效应。另外,异质性检验结果发现,创新能力不同未造成明显的技术锁定效应差异。研究结论对于积极调控我国技术锁定效应、推动创新驱动发展战略实施、促进经济高质量发展具有重要意义。     

Application of technology roadmaps for renewable energy sector

Technology Roadmapping (TRM) is a growing technique widely used for strategy planning and aligning technology with overall business objectives. Technology roadmaps are extensively used in many diverse fields at product, technology, industry, company and national levels. An increasing number of articles published on TRM and technology roadmaps indicate that there is a growing attention for TRM among the researchers from academia, industry and government. In this article, an overview of the application of TRM in renewable energy sector has been provided. After survey of the relevant academic literature and industry roadmaps, we tried to group the roadmaps related to the renewable energy technologies into national, industry/sector and organizational level roadmaps. Research findings indicate that goals and objectives of renewable energy roadmaps are different at these three levels. At national level, roadmaps focus on future energy security, energy dependence, energy policy formulation and environment protection. At industry/sector level, roadmaps are used to identify vision, common needs and evaluate barriers, constraints and risks faced by the industry from technical, political and commercial aspects. Organizational roadmap focuses on evaluation and prioritization of R&D projects to achieve the business goals. Similarly different methods, tools and approaches are used to develop roadmaps at different levels. Various other characteristics of these roadmaps are also discussed and analyzed. Research findings also indicate that greater numbers of roadmaps are developed for those renewable energy technologies undergoing rapid growth. Moreover, most of these roadmaps are developed in the regions where more research, development and deployment activities of renewable energy technologies is taking place.     

科技体制改革对省级创新体系绩效的影响 ——基于2011-2019年省际面板数据

2015年我国开启深化科技体制改革,关于这种实验主义创新治理能否转化为实际治理效能,其对中国特色创新体系建设的推动效果如何,目前鲜有文献从实证角度进行研究。基于2011—2019年我国内地31个省（市区）面板数据,运用分组分析法考察科技体制改革实施效果。研究结果表明：科技体制改革对知识创新体系中高校与研发机构相互提升的促进作用显著;科技体制改革强化了企业技术创新需求对高校、研发机构等知识创新体系创新绩效提升的拉动作用;高校和研发机构等知识创新体系主体供给侧投入增加,未对企业新产品销售收入产生促进作用;高校、研发机构基础研究经费投入的边际产出低于企业。     

中国对外直接投资的逆向技术溢出效应——基于技术差距的影响分析

本文利用2003～2007年省际面板数据对我国对外直接投资的逆向技术溢出效应以及国内外技术差距对逆向技术溢出的影响进行了实证分析,研究结果显示:我国对外直接投资对全要素生产率存在显著的逆向溢出效应;我国与西方国家的技术差距影响对外直接投资的逆向技术溢出,且技术差距与逆向溢出之间的非线性关系模型比线性关系模型拟合得更好.     

技术进步对能源消费回报效应的估算

"回报效应"是能源经济学中的一个著名命题,但在国内尚缺乏实证检验.本文以改革开放以来中国宏观经济能源消费数据为样本,对这一命题进行了计量检验.结果表明,在中国宏观经济层面上,"回报效应"在30-80%波动,而且20世纪90年代的平均回报率要明显低于20世纪80年代.对此进一步分析后本文认为"回报效应"将呈现三种趋势:"回报效应"越来越低;更多地体现为"硬"技术进步方面;更多地体现在生活部门.     

Technology and the Hydra of terrorism?

In the application of new technologies that address the terrorism problem, an objective is to ensure that the technology does not cause more problems than it solves. Potential new technologies, including convergences of genomics, robotics, information technology, and nanotechnology, might rapidly develop. As with any technological advance, each of these offers a mixture of benefits and risks. At first, a direct approach is reviewed by looking at how these technologies might deter the motive, means, and opportunity for terrorist activities. While there are many potential deterrence applications, other issues are identified that might cause unintended problems in the system. Some of these problems include the possible contribution to terrorist motives by increasing stresses toward divisiveness in society, terrorist means through the development of dual-use technologies, or terrorist opportunities by further developing technological vulnerabilities.Next, a more systemic approach is taken by reviewing a wider range of issues, such as resource availability, management of science and technology, and general societal trends. The balance between technological change and social response is important in realizing benefits while mitigating unintended consequences such as harmful uses through terrorist actions. To explore issues concerning this balance, possible technological development scenarios are reviewed, including the possibility of accelerating or slowing technological development. Some recent recommendations are considered within this context. The need for a balance between technological and social response in this asymmetric situation suggests that the benefits of a rapid technological response against terrorism might not be as large as those observed during World War II.     

Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods

Many forms of analyzing future technology and its consequences coexist, for example, technology intelligence, forecasting, roadmapping, assessment, and foresight. All of these techniques fit into a field we call technology futures analysis (TFA). These methods have matured rather separately, with little interchange and sharing of information on methods and processes. There is a range of experience in the use of all of these, but changes in the technologies in which these methods are used—from industrial to information and molecular—make it necessary to reconsider the TFA methods. New methods need to be explored to take advantage of information resources and new approaches to complex systems. Examination of the processes sheds light on ways to improve the usefulness of TFA to a variety of potential users, from corporate managers to national policy makers. Sharing perspectives among the several TFA forms and introducing new approaches from other fields should advance TFA methods and processes to better inform technology management as well as science and research policy.     

基于产业化潜力评价的新兴技术特征研究

在详细研究新兴技术定义和特征的基础之上,将技术预见的方法和思想引入到新兴技术的评价与选择中,建立了评价指标体系,通过德尔菲问卷调查,对新兴技术产业化潜力进行了实证研究。基于新兴技术的产业化潜力,按照其所处行业的不同和同行业但是潜力大小的不同,将新兴技术分成两组,利用配对样本T检验方法分别对导致新兴技术产业化潜力差异变化的技术特征、市场特征以及其它特征进行识别和研究,找出了影响新兴技术产业化潜力的决定因素。综合考虑新兴技术产业化潜力的评价结果及其影响特征,可以为新兴技术的商业化和产业化提供重要的决策依据。     

资金供给、技术能力与技术转移绩效——国家重点研发计划多群组结构方程模型分析

国家重点研发计划对全产业链的强调使得研究其技术转移尤为必要。参考资源基础理论和动态能力理论,构建“资金供给—技术积累规模—技术转移能力—技术转移绩效”国家重点研发计划技术转移模型。应用结构方程模型进行检验,使用多群组结构方程模型探讨不同研究项目各因素对技术转移绩效的不同影响。结果发现：(1)国家重点研发计划技术转移绩效总体处于较高水平;(2)技术转移能力是国家重点研发计划技术转移绩效最直接、最有力的影响因素,资金供给是技术转移绩效的重要支撑;(3)技术积累规模难以直接影响技术转移绩效,但在技术转移绩效影响机理中发挥重要传导作用,是技术转移的基础性技术资源;(4)不同项目类型影响效应存在显著差异。研究结论可为政府、项目参与单位、首席科学家和普通参与者有效促进科技项目技术转移提供参考依据。     

技术市场对重大科技创新影响的实证分析——技术输出与技术吸纳视角

利用2006-2018年全国省级面板数据,从技术吸纳和技术输出视角研究技术市场对重大科技创新的影响。结果发现,技术输出和技术吸纳对重大科技创新的影响呈现异质状态,即技术输出能够显著促进重大科技创新水平提升,而技术吸纳对重大科技创新的影响不显著。考虑到技术输出与重大科技创新可能存在内生性问题,选取劳动争议处理量作为工具变量进行回归,研究表明该结果具有稳健性。此外,研发人员与经费投入、高等教育水平等因素在促进重大科技创新水平提升过程中具有一定局限性。基于此,提出强化技术市场对重大科技创新影响效应的对策建议。     

基于综合集成方法论的产业技术路线图研究

提出产业技术路线图是一个开放的复杂巨系统,应当用综合集成方法去解释技术路线图绘制过程的共识涌现现象。阐明了产业技术路线图绘制过程就是一个复杂系统建模过程,把产业技术路线图研讨会看成综合集成研讨厅体系,因此应当运用钱学森提出的处理开放复杂巨系统的方法——从定性到定量的综合集成方法。最后建立了产业技术路线图共识系统涌现模型。     

基于MRCI的中国能源消费变动及驱动因素分析

如何减缓能源消费的过快增长是应对能源安全和气候变化的重要课题。通过对投入产出分析原理和无残差的完全结构分解法（MRCI）量化分析发现,产出规模效应和生产结构效应对中国能源消费增长起到主导作用,是主要驱动因素,而中国能源强度效应能有效抑制中国能源消费的增长;人口规模效应和人均生活能耗效应对中国能源消费增长的影响相对较小,但也有一定的促进作用。因此,依靠技术创新、提高能源使用效率,控制人口增长、引导居民向低能耗方向发展有利于减少中国能源消费水平。     

舆论监督对高科技企业技术伦理行为影响的探索性研究

通过分析访谈资料和相关网络数据,运用扎根理论方法,探索舆论监督对高科技企业技术伦理行为的影响。研究发现：舆论监督从公众知情、媒介反应、政府宣传和引导3个维度作用于高科技企业技术伦理行为;舆论监督影响并通过政府技术监管和政策吸纳行为、企业技术伦理行为实施意愿、员工举报建言行为及行业协会自律行为的中介作用,影响高科技企业技术伦理行为,其中,企业技术伦理行为实施意愿对技术伦理行为的影响受企业技术伦理行为实施能力的影响;有限的舆论资源与企业技术管理决策在各自边界内协同互动,才能达到技术至善的目的。     

我国科技金融生态及其绩效实证研究

科技金融生态在提升科技金融绩效、促进技术创新溢出和转变经济发展方式等方面具有重要作用。利用空间Dubin模型分析科技金融空间溢出效应及其绩效,结果表明：科技金融规模扩张直接促进科技金融绩效提升;科技金融在全社会融资规模占比越大,其对科技金融绩效影响越强;经济发展有助于提升科技金融绩效;科技金融在一定程度上强化技术创新的溢出效应。由此提出,应高度重视科技金融生态在创新中的突出作用,不断深化我国科技金融改革。     

基于BIM技术的绿色工程解决方案研究

建筑业资源消耗量巨大,发展绿色工程迫在眉睫,但基于现有技术实现绿色工程存在不少困难。探索将BIM技术运用到工程项目中,实现工程绿色化。介绍了绿色工程的概念,分析了BIM应用现状,以成都市南城都汇六期汇彩园商业及住宅项目BIM实践为例,从BIM策划、投标报价策略分析、管综优化、限额领料等方面进行剖析和论证,阐述了BIM应用于绿色工程的实践效果。