Socio-Political Evaluation of Energy Deployment (SPEED): An integrated research framework analyzing energy technology deployment

Stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases to reduce the risks of climate change requires a major transition in society's energy infrastructure; yet despite a growing sense of urgency, deployment of alternative emerging energy technologies has been slow and uncertain. This paper proposes a systematic, interdisciplinary framework for the integrated analysis of regulatory, legal, political, economic, and social factors that influence energy technology deployment decisions at the state level to enhance awareness of the interconnections and enable improved energy policy and planning and accelerated change in society's energy infrastructure. This framework, Socio-Political Evaluation of Energy Deployment, (SPEED), integrates analysis of laws, regulations, institutions and policy actors as well as varying regional perceptions and levels of awareness about the risks and benefits of emerging energy technologies to facilitate improved understanding of the complex interconnected components of state energy systems. While this framework has been developed with U.S. states as a model, the SPEED framework is generalizable to other countries with different sub-national structures. We present three research methods that could be applied within the SPEED framework that could be particularly helpful in understanding the integrated socio-political influences on energy technology deployment: (1) policy review and analysis, (2) media analysis, and (3) focus groups and structured interviews with key stakeholders. By integrating the fields of technology diffusion, environmental policy, comparative analysis of states, and risk perception, future empirical research conducted within this SPEED framework will improve understanding of the interconnected socio-political influences on energy technology deployment to enable energy modelers, policy-makers, energy professionals, state planners and other stakeholders to develop and implement more effective strategies to accelerate the deployment of emerging energy technologies.     

Implementing technology roadmap process in the energy services sector: A case study of a government agency

Energy sector has become increasingly sensitive to emerging new technologies as our society is seeking alternative energy sources. Many utility companies and government agencies have started to implement technology planning processes for roadmapping their future technology portfolios. This paper focuses on technology planning in the government energy services sector. Through a case study research method, the paper documents how technology planning and specifically technology roadmaps were implemented at a federal agency tasked with managing power transmission in the Northwest United States. Three application areas are covered: transmission, renewables and energy efficiency. The paper provides details on the Energy Efficiency Roadmaps. Through the review of the case a technology planning methodology based on technology roadmaps is detailed. Key conclusions were reached on how to manage such process implementation in similar organizations. Some of these conclusions can be generalized to those that are implementing technology planning processes for the first time. We concluded that adoption of such methods would require a longer time than anticipated. Organizational changes to adopt the process will likely reduce the time it takes to deliver the required roadmaps. We also found that a typical sequence of events would be Technology Gap Analysis and Identification of Technology Candidates, Evaluation and Prioritization of Technologies, Roadmapping of Technologies and Allocation of Resources to the R&D Programs or to the direct acquisition of the technologies.     

Technology foresight for a vision of energy sector development in Poland till 2030. Delphi survey as an element of technology foresighting

The security of energy supply at national level is one of the most fundamental missions of every government. This task becomes especially vital in view of the current situation on global energy markets. The planning of technological development in the energy and fuel sectors is a relevant element of energy security strategies. This in turn leads to a more rational and efficient energy use in the future. Technology foresight, which emerged as a proven instrument of technology policy during the 1950s, becomes nowadays one of the essential tools for the creation of the future technological development worldwide. A project entitled: “The Scenarios of Technological Development of Fuel and Energy Sector for National Energy Security” was the first foresight project in the field of energy technologies and at the same time the first technology foresight activity in Poland. This project was being carried out in the period of 2006-2007 by a consortium of research and development institutes on the request of the Polish Ministry of Economy. The aim of the project was to indicate energy and fuel sector development directions in the time horizon up to 2030 and identify key energy technologies of strategic importance. As a result of the foresight activity, technology development scenarios in the energy and fuel sector in Poland as well as corresponding roadmaps for their implementation were formulated. The project results should be helpful in drafting national energy policies and they will indicate priority pathways of research and development (R&D) activities in the next years.The energy foresight project was based mainly on a Delphi method that is nowadays widely applied as a valuable foresight tool. This future-oriented intuitive method was engaged for the qualitative and quantitative assessment of probable developments in the future and for their time scale evaluation as well. In this article, the results of the conducted two-round Delphi survey were presented.     

技术进步对能源消费回报效应的估算

"回报效应"是能源经济学中的一个著名命题,但在国内尚缺乏实证检验.本文以改革开放以来中国宏观经济能源消费数据为样本,对这一命题进行了计量检验.结果表明,在中国宏观经济层面上,"回报效应"在30-80%波动,而且20世纪90年代的平均回报率要明显低于20世纪80年代.对此进一步分析后本文认为"回报效应"将呈现三种趋势:"回报效应"越来越低;更多地体现为"硬"技术进步方面;更多地体现在生活部门.     

中国对外直接投资的逆向技术溢出效应——基于技术差距的影响分析

本文利用2003～2007年省际面板数据对我国对外直接投资的逆向技术溢出效应以及国内外技术差距对逆向技术溢出的影响进行了实证分析,研究结果显示:我国对外直接投资对全要素生产率存在显著的逆向溢出效应;我国与西方国家的技术差距影响对外直接投资的逆向技术溢出,且技术差距与逆向溢出之间的非线性关系模型比线性关系模型拟合得更好.     

Technology and the Hydra of terrorism?

In the application of new technologies that address the terrorism problem, an objective is to ensure that the technology does not cause more problems than it solves. Potential new technologies, including convergences of genomics, robotics, information technology, and nanotechnology, might rapidly develop. As with any technological advance, each of these offers a mixture of benefits and risks. At first, a direct approach is reviewed by looking at how these technologies might deter the motive, means, and opportunity for terrorist activities. While there are many potential deterrence applications, other issues are identified that might cause unintended problems in the system. Some of these problems include the possible contribution to terrorist motives by increasing stresses toward divisiveness in society, terrorist means through the development of dual-use technologies, or terrorist opportunities by further developing technological vulnerabilities.Next, a more systemic approach is taken by reviewing a wider range of issues, such as resource availability, management of science and technology, and general societal trends. The balance between technological change and social response is important in realizing benefits while mitigating unintended consequences such as harmful uses through terrorist actions. To explore issues concerning this balance, possible technological development scenarios are reviewed, including the possibility of accelerating or slowing technological development. Some recent recommendations are considered within this context. The need for a balance between technological and social response in this asymmetric situation suggests that the benefits of a rapid technological response against terrorism might not be as large as those observed during World War II.     

基于MRCI的中国能源消费变动及驱动因素分析

如何减缓能源消费的过快增长是应对能源安全和气候变化的重要课题。通过对投入产出分析原理和无残差的完全结构分解法（MRCI）量化分析发现,产出规模效应和生产结构效应对中国能源消费增长起到主导作用,是主要驱动因素,而中国能源强度效应能有效抑制中国能源消费的增长;人口规模效应和人均生活能耗效应对中国能源消费增长的影响相对较小,但也有一定的促进作用。因此,依靠技术创新、提高能源使用效率,控制人口增长、引导居民向低能耗方向发展有利于减少中国能源消费水平。     

基于层次分析的灰色模糊综合评价法在节能住宅技术经济评价中的应用

随着建筑节能的推广,迫切需要适合各地区的节能住宅技术评价方法。文章根据寒冷地区节能住宅特点,设计相应的技术经济评价指标体系,引入层次分析法、灰色关联度和模糊综合评价法对节能住宅设计方案进行评价,最后通过实例说明如何运用基于层次分析法的灰色模糊综合评价法进行节能设计方案的优选。分析模型可供节能住宅设计方案优选时参考。     

Comparisons of the structure and infrastructure of Chinese and Indian Science and Technology

A comparison was made of the research output literatures of India and China. Both bibliometric and computational linguistics approaches were used in the comparison. China has rapidly outpaced India in both volume and citation performance of publications. China's rapid publication growth rate over the past two decades is continuing, while India's is re-starting after a relatively dormant period of almost two decades.     

Trends in energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of passenger cars and buses

In this work we develop aggregate car ownership and bus fleet models in order to forecast and compare fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions from passenger cars and buses. Greece was selected as a case study, being a country fairly representative of lower-income Mediterranean and Eastern European countries and data were collected for the period 1970 to 2002. Percent adults in the population, per capita gross domestic product, inflation, unemployment, car occupancy and bus kilometers were predictors included in the car ownership and bus fleet multiple regression models. A shift in the overall trend of both models around 1995 was explained as a slope change of per capita gross domestic product, possibly reflecting the impact of a boom of the Greek Stock Market along with a retirement program for older vehicles. Predictor variables were forecast via Box-Jenkins and the models were subsequently used to develop car ownership and bus fleet forecasts to the year 2010. We predict that the contribution of cars to total CO₂ emissions will rise to an astounding 95% of total CO₂ emissions from road passenger transport (excluding taxis and mopeds), an effect expected in other Mediterranean and Eastern European countries with socioeconomic characteristics similar to Greece. Suggestions for further research include developing regional car ownership forecasts in order to compare the dynamics of different regions within a country and looking into other land transportation means (such as mopeds, taxicabs and railway).     

PowerPlay: Exploring decision making behaviors in energy efficiency markets

Computer models are widely used to analyze decisions about energy efficiency improvements in the residential and commercial sectors. Few models exist that can actually be run interactively by decision makers to play out alternative future scenarios. None are available that interactively capture the dynamics, subtleties and complexities of interdependent decisions by utilities, households and firms in an ever-changing technological and economic environment.This paper presents the features and experiences of PowerPlay, a computer-facilitated game which fills that gap and does more: it is a game to be played by at least a dozen player groups who interact with each other, make deals (or break them), plan for the future and revise decisions. The computer model functions like a game board to trace actions and offer choices. The observed behaviors can be analyzed to advance understanding of investment strategies and consumer choices; to generate experimentally-based data on energy efficiency changes; and to provide the basis for analyses that can substantiate or complement historical, time-series driven specifications of energy models.     

Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth revisited: A dynamic panel data approach

This paper uses the panel data of energy consumption and GDP for 82 countries from 1972 to 2002. Based on the income levels defined by the World Bank, the data are divided into four categories: low income group, lower middle income group, upper middle income group, and high income group. We employ the GMM-SYS approach for the estimation of the panel VAR model in each of the four groups. Afterwards, the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is tested and ascertained. We discover: (a) in the low income group, there exists no causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth; (b) in the middle income groups (lower and upper middle income groups), economic growth leads energy consumption positively; (c) in the high income group countries, economic growth leads energy consumption negatively. After further in-depth analysis of energy related data, the results indicate that, in the high income group, there is a great environmental improvement as a result of more efficient energy use and reduction in the release of CO₂. However, in the upper middle income group countries, after the energy crisis, the energy efficiency declines and the release of CO₂ rises. Since there is no evidence indicating that energy consumption leads economic growth in any of the four income groups, a stronger energy conservation policy should be pursued in all countries.     

On transformation of public sector research: A preliminary post-STBL assessment in Taiwan

The paper examines the impact of the Science and Technology Basic Law (STBL) enactment of 1999 on the transformation of public sector research (PSR) in Taiwan. The paper proposes a research framework to assess the changes on PSR mainly through four dimensions: (1) new infrastructure build-up, (2) industrial research links, (3) patenting and licensing, and (4) industrial education/training. Nine research hypotheses are developed. Based on the survey data of 107 PSR establishments, the paper reveals that Taiwan PSR has experienced a burgeoning infrastructure build-up and a more active partnership with industry in the post-STBL period. However, the paper argues that the scientific-economic transformation of PSR in Taiwan tends to develop better “industrial collaborative research and training capabilities” than “patenting and licensing capabilities” in the preliminary post-STBL period. The divergence on patenting, licensing and partnership capabilities still persists between experienced PSREs and non-experienced ones, suggesting a learning effect. These findings provide crucial policy implications to delineate appropriate roles of PSR in the new scientific-economic regime.     

Exploring the future of ecological genomics: Integrating CTA with vision assessment

Interactive approaches to technology development provide opportunities for the development of innovative technologies which clearly connect with social practices and address the positive and negative effects as perceived by relevant actors. The challenge is to start an interactive approach early in the development of new technologies, when many options are still open for exploration and there are good possibilities for steering. Early involvement of societal actors is, however, challenged by the absence of concrete applications on which they can develop their own visions from the perspective of their own needs, interests, norms and values. Integrating Constructive Technology Assessment (CTA) with vision assessment is proposed as an approach to overcome this dilemma in the field of ecological genomics and bridge the knowledge gap between parties closely involved with ecogenomics research and other relevant actors. We present, evaluate and discuss the process of identifying guiding visions of the technology developers as a first step in this approach and end with some suggestions on how desirable futures for ecogenomics can subsequently be assessed from the perspectives of different actors.     

The water footprint of energy from biomass: A quantitative assessment and consequences of an increasing share of bio-energy in energy supply

This paper assesses the water footprint (WF) of different primary energy carriers derived from biomass expressed as the amount of water consumed to produce a unit of energy (m³/GJ). The paper observes large differences among the WFs for specific types of primary bio-energy carriers. The WF depends on crop type, agricultural production system and climate. The WF of average bio-energy carriers grown in the Netherlands is 24 m³/GJ, in the US 58 m³/GJ, in Brazil 61 m³/GJ, and in Zimbabwe 143 m³/GJ. The WF of bio-energy is much larger than the WF of fossil energy. For the fossil energy carriers, the WF increases in the following order: uranium (0.1 m³/GJ), natural gas (0.1 m³/GJ), coal (0.2 m³/GJ), and finally crude oil (1.1 m³/GJ). Renewable energy carriers show large differences in their WF. The WF for wind energy is negligible, for solar thermal energy 0.3 m³/GJ, but for hydropower 22 m³/GJ. Based on the average per capita energy use in western societies (100 GJ/capita/year), a mix from coal, crude oil, natural gas and uranium requires about 35 m³/capita/year. If the same amount of energy is generated through the growth of biomass in a high productive agricultural system, as applied in the Netherlands, the WF is 2420 m³. The WF of biomass is 70 to 400 times larger than the WF of the other primary energy carriers (excluding hydropower). The trend towards larger energy use in combination with an increasing contribution of energy from biomass will enlarge the need for fresh water. This causes competition with other claims, such as water for food.     

The technology adoption life cycle attractor: Understanding the dynamics of high-tech markets

Unlike more stable industries, high-tech firms must constantly be in a strategy development phase. These companies are in desperate need of assistance in strategy formulation. This paper introduces a quantitative (rather than subjective) approach to help high-tech firms to understand their position in the technology adoption life cycle using some of the principles and tools of Chaos and Complexity theories. This approach is demonstrated by using data sets of three case studies in the hard drive, microprocessor, and server high-tech industries.     

我国西部能源产业技术溢出与产业集聚累积循环效应的实证研究

本文选择我国西部石油天然气产业和煤炭产业为研究样本,对我国西部能源产业的技术溢出与产业集聚的累积循环效应进行了实证检验。研究结果表明：①西部地区能源产业技术溢出与产业集聚之间存在着累积循环效应;②资源禀赋差异是我国西部能源产业集聚的首要影响因素,而技术溢出、劳动力集聚以及中间投入要素的集中也与能源产业的集聚存在正相关关系,这与新经济地理学派观点相一致;③西部地区能源产业集聚水平、竞争程度、专业化程度以及西部地区产业的分散化程度与其技术溢出水平显著相关。因此,只要构建好西部能源产业创新平台,就可以充分发挥产业集聚与技术溢出之间的正反馈作用,从而促进西部地区由能源优势向产业优势进而向经济优势的转化,以实现我国区域经济的协调发展。     

中国电力发展:提高电价和限电的经济影响

中国在过去20年中,经济增长和生产过程的现代化使之对电力愈加倚重。2002年以来,电力成为一个重要的经济和政治问题,电力短缺的直接后果是电价提高和限电。本文从提高电价和限电两方面讨论了研究电力短缺的影响的方法,分析了提高电价对不同工业行业和不同地区造成的影响,并使用调查数据就限电对工业的影响进行了量化分析。主要结论是,电力短缺对工业的直接影响远大于电力供给成本。在工业化水平较高、较为发达的省份,电力短缺的影响并不一定更大,因为决定影响程度的因素包括工业构成、对电力的依赖性和可用的替代品。     

A research of green taxation policy for promoting energy saving and emission reduction

It＇s been proved by theory and practice that taxation policy is one of the important means of realizing energy saving and emission reduction. The green taxation system in the Western countries has got better effects in energy saving and environmental protection. In the recent years, China has in succession released some taxation policies promoting energy saving and emission reduction, but still has a huge gap to meet the real needs of energy saving and emission reduction. By analyzing China＇s status quo of the polices of energy saving and emission reduction and drawing upon experiences of the developed countries about green taxation, this paper presents how to perfect ideas of China＇s energy saving and emission reduction taxation policies： adjusting taxes relevant to green taxation in the current taxation system, such as resource tax, consumer tax, and so on; collecting new environmental tax; perfecting the preferential taxation policies for the energy saving and environmental protection industries.     

The driving forces of the change in China's energy intensity: An empirical research using DEA-Malmquist and spatial panel estimations

Energy shortage and environmental degradation have become significant hurdles for China's sustainable development nowadays. One of the most efficient and effective ways to ease energy shortage is to sufficiently reduce energy intensity. In the extant literature on the influential factors of China's energy intensity, the regional imbalance and spatial spillover effects were basically ignored, which may yield to biased and unreasonable results. As a result, in this paper, the driving forces of China's provincial energy intensity were for the first time investigated by combining the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)-Malmquist and spatial panel approaches for the period between 2000 and 2014. The results indicate that technological progress plays a dominant role in decreasing China's overall energy intensity. In both the Eastern and Central regions, the technological progress and its components can decrease energy intensity, while this effect doesnot significantly exist in the Western region. Rapid industrialization should be responsible for China's currently high energy intensity, while energy price hiking is conducive to the decrease in energy intensity. Moreover, there is also clear evidence that these factors influence on energy intensity partly through the spatial spillover effects.