Trade liberalisation and agglomeration with firm heterogeneity: Forward and backward linkages

This paper studies the impact of trade cost reductions on the geographical concentration of manufacturing in the presence of intermediate input linkages, firm heterogeneity and fixed export costs. The presence of non-exporting firms in this Melitz-like model hampers full agglomeration by weakening the forward and backward linkages and fortifying market-crowding effect. Gradual trade liberalisation causes gradual agglomeration rather than the catastrophic agglomeration that economic geography models have long suggested. Also, trade liberalisation produces divergent welfare effects with the periphery losing and the core gaining; even costless trade fails to equalise welfare in the core and periphery due to non-exported intermediate inputs.     

Acquisition of skills, labor subsidies, and agglomeration of firms

The paper develops an analytically solvable model of new economic geography in which agglomeration of firms is caused by workers' investment in the acquisition of skills. Skilled workers earn high wages and have a large demand for goods. Since firms are attracted towards the demand, they locate at proximity of skilled workers. More workers invest in the acquisition of skills when more firms ask for these skills. Consequently, partial or full agglomeration of firms may be the location equilibrium. We also show that a reduction in transport costs increases the regional governments' incentives to subsidize the acquisition of skills.     

Spatial Cournot competition and economic welfare: a note

We investigated welfare implications in location-quantity models in a symmetric linear city. We found that when firms are not agglomerated in equilibrium, increasing the distance between firms raises (reduces) producer surplus and social welfare (consumer surplus). Moreover, central agglomeration is always optimal for consumers among symmetric locations, but not necessarily for producers. Central agglomeration can be inefficient even if it is the unique equilibrium outcome. In short, the firms are more likely to agglomerate or locate closer than what welfare maximizers would dictate, whereas they locate farther apart than what consumer surplus maximizers would recommend.     

Transport costs, intermediate goods, and localized growth

This paper presents a dynamic, two-regional, general equilibrium model in which interregional production and trade patterns are endogenously determined. Localized growth stems from the geographical concentration of an industrial sector exhibiting permanent productivity increases. Geographical concentration is a result of the interaction between local market size and local competition in the differentiated input industry. Regional factor endowment with an immobile factor is decisive for the long-run specialization, trade and growth patterns between the regions if large endowment differences prevail. With equal-sized regions, multiple equilibria exist. Furthermore, we argue that integration might lead to increasing regional concentration of production and innovation.     

Measuring digitization: A growth and welfare multiplier

Digitization encapsulates the social transformation triggered by the mass adoption of digital technologies that generate, process and transfer information. The digitization index introduces a global measure of national performance reflecting ubiquity, affordability, reliability, speed, usability and skills. Output and welfare rise with the index while manifesting increasing returns to scale some implications for ICT public policy are drawn from these findings.     

The New Economic Geography

Recently, the 'new economic geography' literature has developed as a theory of the emergence of large agglomerations which relies on increasing returns to scale and transportation costs. This literature builds on diverse intellectual traditions. It combines the insights of traditional regional science with those of modern trade theory and thus attempts to provide an integrative approach to interregional and international trade. The paper surveys this literature and discusses its relation to earlier approaches to similar topics.     

Anticipation,learning and welfare: the case of distortionary taxation

We study the impact of anticipated fiscal policy changes in a Ramsey economy where agents form long-horizon expectations using adaptive learning. We extend the existing framework by introducing distortionary taxes as well as elastic labor supply, which makes agents’ decisions non-predetermined but more realistic. We detect that the dynamic responses to anticipated tax changes under learning have oscillatory behavior that can be interpreted as self-fulfilling waves of optimism and pessimism emerging from systematic forecast errors. Moreover, we demonstrate that these waves can have important implications for the welfare consequences of fiscal reforms.     

ENTREPRENEURS' LOCATION CHOICE AND PUBLIC POLICIES: A SURVEY OF THE NEW ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY

Abstract The aim of this paper is to survey what has been done by the New Economic Geography (NEG) on a regional scale in order to answer the three following questions: What are the predictions of the NEG concerning the future of regions in the triad? Are these predictions robust? What can be the optimal public policy on a regional and national scale in a world characterized by agglomeration, trade liberalization and mobility of entrepreneurs? In surveying the most recent contributions in this area, the paper sheds light on several shortcomings of the NEG literature in order to point out new directions for further research, with particular reference to studies concerning welfare and tax competition.     

Local industrial structure,agglomeration economies and the creation of innovative start-ups: evidence from the Italian case

We explore the local factors associated with the emergence of innovative start-ups fostered by a targeted industrial policy intervention in Italy. We focus on the local industrial fabric and the agglomeration mechanisms, namely localization (specialization) economies, diversification economies and the proximity to large firms. Results show that both localization economies and diversification economies are at play. Notably, a greater presence of large firms at local level seems to support the creation of innovative start-ups. Other factors, such us the presence of technical and scientific universities and the urbanization, are found to encourage their formation. The contribution of local factors to the innovative start-up creation is found to be different depending on the regional development conditions. Our analysis outlines the features of a local ecosystem favourable to the emergence of these firms, providing policy makers with suggestions for moulding industrial policies to regional specific needs and to better exploit the local opportunities.     

Volatility, growth, and welfare

This paper constructs an endogenous growth model driven by self-fulfilling expectation shocks to explain the stylized fact that the average growth rate of GDP is related negatively to volatility and positively to capacity utilization. The implied welfare gain from further stabilizing the U.S. economy is about a quarter of annual consumption, which is consistent in order of magnitude with estimates based on the empirical studies of Ramey and Ramey (1995) and Alvarez and Jermann (2004). Hence, policies designed to reduce fluctuations can generate large welfare gains because smaller fluctuations are associated with permanently higher rates of growth.     

High-speed rail network and urban agglomeration economies: Research from the perspective of urban network externalities

High-speed rail (HSR) has greatly promoted cross-regional economic activities, but few studies have been conducted from the perspective of urban network externalities (UNEs). Based on data from China from 2008 to 2019, this paper constructs an HSR operation network model to study the impact of the network position (NP) on urban agglomeration economies (UAEs) by jointly employing network and econometric analysis methods. The findings suggest the following: (1) Improvements to NP significantly enhance UAEs. Improving the comprehensive NP by 1% will increase urban output per capita by 193.5–226.8 RMB. The findings hold under several robustness tests. (2) The NP's facilitation of growth in UAEs is reflected mainly in national core cities, while the impact of peripheral cities reflects a “∽-shaped” curve as their distance from each nearest neighboring core city changes. (3) From the temporal-dynamic perspective, the NP's impact on UAEs appeared one year before the HSR line was opened and was fully realized three years after the opening of the HSR. (4) Investment agglomeration and expansions in borrowed size are the main mediating mechanisms whereby NP facilitates UAEs.     

Regional integration,international liberalisation and the dynamics of industrial agglomeration

This paper presents a 3-region footloose-entrepreneur new economic geography model. Two symmetric regions are part of an economically integrated area (the Union), while the third region represents an outside trade partner. We explore how the spatial allocation of industrial production and employment within the Union is affected by changes in two aspects of trade liberalisation, regional integration and globalisation, conditional to the skill endowment and the market size of the outside region. Our main contribution pertains to the analysis of the local and global dynamics of the specified factor mobility process. We show that significant parameter ranges exist for which an asymmetric distribution of economic activities is one of the possible long-run outcomes which may allow a smooth transition to agglomeration (in contrast to the NEG typical catastrophic scenario). In addition, we show that multistability is pervasive and that some attractors are Milnor attractors. Both results reinforce the NEG narrative on the importance of initial conditions for the long-run location of industrial activity.     

Balance sheets, exchange rate policy, and welfare

We evaluate the welfare implications of fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes in a small open-economy model that incorporates the financial accelerator coupled with liability dollarization. We solve the model up to a second-order approximation which allows us to rigorously address the relationship between uncertainty and welfare. We identify leverage and debt-to-GDP ratios above which an exchange rate peg is welfare superior to a flexible exchange rate regime. The results indicate that emerging market countries with even moderate levels of foreign currency-denominated debt may find it beneficial to stabilize their exchange rates.     

Offshoring,globalization, and welfare

We investigate the issue of offshoring in a general-equilibrium model of two countries and one sector of increasing returns to scale. Our model uncovers that offshoring occurs and endogenously evolves in a bell-shaped pattern when trade costs decline, explaining some stylized facts in developed countries. Furthermore, this simple framework can be applied to examine the welfare issue. We find that a fall in offshoring costs benefits the high-wage country but hurts the low-wage country. On the other hand, the low-wage country benefits with trade liberalization. The impact of falling trade costs on the welfare of the high-wage country depends on the values of offshoring freeness.     

Land conservation,growth and welfare

This paper identifies the factors, such as leaving land fallow and conservation inputs, for conserving and enhancing soil fertility of land. The growth and welfare effects of these land policies are then examined. Leaving land fallow and conservation inputs raise the equilibrium soil fertility. In the short run, the polices can render unfavorable impacts to the economy, such as decreases in the land supply by the fallow plan, or reductions in public services and falls in private capital formation. Nonetheless, both policies have ambiguous impacts on growth and welfare of the economy in the long run. Furthermore, due to the favorable impact on initial consumption, the welfare-maximizing tax rate or transfer ratio is larger than the one for growth maximization. However, for the land fallow ratio, both rates are the same.     

Survival of entrepreneurial firms: the role of agglomeration externalities

This paper analyzes the role of various types of agglomeration externalities on the survival rate of entrepreneurial firms. In particular, we trace the population cohort of newly-established and self-employed Swedish firms in the Knowledge-Intensive Business Service sector in 1997 up to 2012 and investigate the role of Marshallian and Jacobian externalities on the survival of these firms. We find that only Jacobian externalities (diversity) is positively associated with the survival of entrepreneurial firms. Not all Jacobian externalities matter though. Only the higher the ‘related variety’ of the region in which an entrepreneurial firm is founded, the higher will be the survival chance of the firm, while ‘unrelated variety’ barely has any significant correlation. The result is robust after controlling for extensive firm characteristics and individual characteristics of the founders. The main message here is: for a newly-established entrepreneurial firm, not only it matters who you are, but also where you are.     

Innovation dynamics and fiscal policy: Implications for growth,asset prices,and welfare

We study the equilibrium implications of different fiscal policies on macroeconomic quantities and welfare by utilizing an endogenous growth model that matches asset pricing data well. The fiscal instruments of interest are (i) subsidies to R&D expenditure, consumption and capital investment, and (ii) cuts in labor and corporate tax rates. Our equilibrium analysis provides new insights on the interplay of innovation dynamics and fiscal policy. Importantly, we find growth and welfare to be inversely related when changing R&D subsidies. However, this depends on how well the model reproduces asset pricing dynamics. Moreover, only subsidies to capital investments and cuts in the corporate tax rate have the potential to increase both growth and welfare.     

Short sales,destruction of resources,welfare

A reduction in the output of productive assets (trees) in some contingencies may expand the range of risks spanned by the payoffs of assets and allow for better risk sharing; which may compensate for the loss of output and support a Pareto superior allocation. Surprisingly, if short sales of assets are not allowed, improved risk sharing that results from the destruction of output does not suffice to support a Pareto superior allocation.     

Measuring the welfare costs of inflation in a life-cycle model

In a neoclassical growth model with life-cycle households in which money is held to satisfy a cash-in-advance constraint, the optimal steady state inflation rate is absurdly high: in excess of 20%. Lump-sum, age-independent money injections twist and flatten the lifetime profile of utility, making this profile look more like the one that would be chosen by a planner. The cost of monetary finance of lump-sum payments is the distortion introduced to the labor-leisure choice.     

Endogenous search,price dispersion,and welfare

This paper studies the welfare cost of inflation in a frictional monetary economy with endogenous consumer search. Equilibrium entails price dispersion, where sellers compete for buyers by posting prices. We identify three channels through which inflation affects welfare. The real balance channel is the source of welfare loss. Its interaction with the price posting channel generates a welfare cost larger than Lucas (2000). The search channel reduces the welfare cost by more than one half through general equilibrium effect. The aggregate effect of these three channels on welfare is non-monotonic. Additionally, the welfare cost of inflation fluctuations is negligible.