非均衡产业结构下的就业增长率

在刚性的就业体制废除以后,就业增长率一直处于低位徘徊。经济增长与就业增长呈现出较强的非一致性,这种现象与我国非均衡的产业结构密不可分。从非均衡的产业结构变动特点出发,分析非均衡的产业结构的变动对就业增长率的影响,有利于妥善处理好产业结构与就业增长率的关系,从而提高就业增长率。     

“十二五”时期青海经济合意增长率的判研

经济学中哈罗德——多玛的经济增长理论，将经济增长率分为实际增长率、合意增长率和自然增长率三种类型，当一个经济体的三种增长率一致时，经济体的增长处于均衡增长状态。在经济体增长处于非均衡状态时，合意增长率就成为经济体追求的目标和宏观调控的目标。在我国经济发展过程中，合意增长率就表现为政府规划确定的经济发展速度。     

区域金融发展与经济增长、产业结构调整的关系——以上海经济为例

我国各地区经济发展水平差距较大,区域金融发展水平与经济增长率之间的配合程度存在一定差异,文章利用动态均衡模型分析我国区域金融发展水平与经济增长之间非均衡关系及结果,分析区域金融发展与经济增长的内在作用机制,并以上海经济为例分析我国经济较发达地区的金融发展水平与经济增长率、各产业占比之间的关系.     

转变经济增长方式与扩大就业

实现经济增长方式由粗放型向集约型的转变。随着知识经济时代的到来更显紧迫。而当前我国又面临着严重的失业问题,扩大就业又是面临的现实问题。如何处理好转变经济增长方式与扩大就业的关系,关系到我国发展与稳定的重大问题。 一、转变经济增长方式对就业的影响 一国的经济增长率=要素投入增长率+要素生产率的增长率。主要以要素投入来促进经济增长的方式,称之为粗放型经济增长方式,主要以要素生产率的提高来促进经济增长的     

江苏省经济增长与就业结构偏离研究

本文通过建立统计模型,运用数理统计的方法分析了江苏省各产业从业人员、地区生产总值和全社会固定资产投资之间的关系,反映了近年来江苏省就业增长状况的基本轮廊和江苏省近几年的经济发展与就业率相背离的现状,基于调整线性回归模型对经济增长率与就业增长率偏离的原因进行了分析,得出了保持经济适度快速增长,大力发展第三产业,开发人力资源,完善就业形式以促进就业增长等观点。     

广东省经济增长过程中的就业状况分析

文章分析了广东省经济增长过程中就业增长六个方面的特征,结果发现:广东省就业人数增长率变化轨迹与经济增长变化轨迹基本一致;广东省就业弹性27年来先下降后提升,普遍高于全国平均水平;就业结构与产业结构偏离度依然偏高;制造业和新兴服务业是安置就业大军的主战场;民营经济等非公有制经济成为就业安置的主渠道;珠三角地区仍聚集了过半就业人员;就业人员文化素质稳步提高。     

“奥肯定律”与宁波实证——论经济增长与就业的关系

经济增长了，就业率就提高了。这是经济学的一个规律。美国经济学家阿瑟·奥肯观察到，在经济增长率与失业率两者的变化之间存在着一种稳定的关系：“经济增长速度快，对劳动力的需求量相对较大，就业岗位增加，就业水平高，失业率降低；经济增长速度慢，对劳动力的需求量相对较少，就业水平低，失业率升高。”这种关系被称作“奥肯定律”。“奥肯定律”实际上反映的是经济增长率变化与失业率变化之间的一种经验关系，可以用以下公式描述这个定理：     

关注经济高增长中的几个矛盾

一般情况下，一个国家、地区人民的就业状况，关键取决于这个国家和地区的经济规模、经济增长的速度。经济增长与就业目标同方向运行，经济增长率越高，就业规模越大。有关专家认为，按照目前我国就业弹性系数计算，国民生产总值每增长一个百分点，社会就可提供100万个左右的就业岗位。让人感到不解的是，这几年我国经济一直保持在     

新加坡经济近况及今后展望

一、经济增长、投资和就业 1995年新加坡的国内生产总值(GDP)增长率由1994年的两位数下降为8.9％。经济增长减缓的主要原因是上半年制造业增长率下降到8.1％,而下半年又反弹为12.3％,电子工业需求转旺促使增长率反     

推进“就业优先”发展战略

据统计,“八五”时期,浙江 GDP 年均增长19.1%,而全社会就业仅增长0.52%:“九五”时期,GDP 年均增长11.0%,就业增长0.79%;“八五”、“九五”时期的就业增长弹性系数分别仅为0.03和0.07.这与国际劳工组织研究的1982—1993年期间被调查国 GDP 增长率每增长1个百分点,就业增长率为0.63个百分点相比,存在较大差距。经济与就业增长间的矛盾日益突出,就业形势相当严峻。为此,须把就业作为社会经济发展的首要调控目标来考虑,实施“就业优先”发展战略。非正规就业:未来就业模式的选择非正规就业主要指广泛存在于非正规部门和正规部门中的有别于传统典型的就业形式。包括:(1)非正规部门里的各种就业门类;(2)正规部门的非     

Staple theory and export-led growth: constructing differential growth

The staple theory is a subset of the export-led growth hypothesis, designed to explain the growth and economic development of resource-rich economies. It is a theory that has been misunderstood and is seen to be at odds with the stylised facts of economic growth and development as well as with mainstream neoclassical wisdom. This article presents a brief and critical historiography of the staple theory from which a simple model of staple growth and development is gleaned. As well, data are presented which suggest that staple theory remains an important analytical tool to help explain economic development and growth.     

四川省经济增长与就业增长协调性分析

在经济增长的同时,全国大部分地区不同程度出现就业规模缩小的现象,其中四川省就业规模自1998年以来一直连续缩减。本文就四川省的经济增长和就业增长进行纵向分析,同时与全国及所选地区的数据进行横向比较,四川省经济增长所带动就业的能力比其它地区弱,按照目前的发展状况,四川省就业规模会持续呈下降走势,极不乐观;三次产业中只有第三产业就业规模呈现出增长的趋势,发展第三产业有助于改善就业现状。     

Productivity growth,fixed exchange rates,and export-led growth

This paper studies how the fixed exchange rate regime (FERR) may promote growth when a country experiences faster rates of productivity growth in its tradable sector than its nontradable sector. In a simple two-sector model with money, we show that the FERR can reduce the Balassa-Samuelson effect if wage adjustment is subject to nominal rigidities. The undervaluation thus created suppresses real wage growth but increases the size of the tradable sector and leads to higher growth rates of the entire economy. Using cross-country panel data, our econometric exercises provide robust evidence that supports the results. Meanwhile, other fundamentals, including the external balance position, export share in the tradable sector, and the stage of development, play roles in determining the effects of FERR. Last, we apply the empirical results to run simulations on China from 1994 to 2007 to highlight the role of FERR in the country's export-led growth.     

Trade and growth

The National Economic Association introduced the W. Arthur Lewis Distinguished Lecture series in December 1985 at the Allied Social Sciences Association meetings in New York City. The Lewis Lecture is named in honor of the 1979 Nobel Laureate in Economics, much of whose research has been devoted to the problem of Third World economic development. In the same spirit, the Lewis Lectures are intended to explore the themes of global inequality. Third World poverty, and prospects and possibilities for change. The inaugural Lewis address was delivered by Lance Taylor, professor of economics and nutrition at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Taylor, an immensely creative economist, has led contemporary development economists in the analysis of disparities in the structural relationships between Northern (that is, more-developed) and Southern (that is, less-developed) countries. Taylor’s subject matter, “Trade and Growth,” constituted both a provocative assessment of the stale of knowledge in this area and a compelling indictment of the insights offered by conventional economics. Taylor’s address, presented December 28, 1985, provides a sterling beginning to what promises to be an important lecture series.     

Beyond export-led growth

In light of the adverse conditions in the current international economic environment this paper reassesses the feasibility of continuing to rely on manufacturing export-led growth as the major development dynamic for most LDCs during the next decade. This paper argues that after the initial stages of industrial development, the emphasis in policy toward agriculture should shift from surplus extraction to surplus creation and to the generation of demand linkages with the rest of the economy. The author compares the relative merits of two alternative open development strategies — export-led industrialization and agricultural-demand-led industrialization (ADLI) — by means of several simulation experiments. The experiments are performed with a computable general equilibrium model of a small, low-income, semi-industrial, open economy which is a stylization of South Korea of 1963. They are carried out in an international environment assumed to represent the next decade based on a rate of growth of international demand for imports of about half the 1960–1973 rate. The results support the ADLI approach on all counts.     

Sources of growth

Distributive shares are commonly identified with sector or marginal factor productivity in value terms and, after deflating these values by prices, with physical productivity as well. In this paper it is argued that this approach yields incorrect or misleading views on the true sources of, or contributions to, growth. Even more serious, the identification may lead to mistaken policies designed to foster or accelerate growth. In reality, distributive shares in the national accounts have little to do with physical productivity or the sources of growth.     

Pre-Industrial economic growth

Abstract

Karl Gunnar Persson has written a small book on a large subject — pre-industrial societies and technological progress.¹ For a book on economic history it is unusual, mainly because of the high level of abstraction on which it moves, but also because of some of the conclusions it reaches.     

Robust cyclical growth

The stability of cyclical growth within the context of a model in "Growing through cycles" in Econometrica by Matsuyama (1999) is examined. It is shown that but for an extreme situation, the two-period cycles (two-cycles) are unique and a range of parameter values that imply the stability of such cyclical growth is derived. The growth enhancing property of two-cycles are shown to be retained by any cycle; the results of simulation exercises carried out are reported to show that for a very wide range of parameter values, such cyclical growth paths are stable and, therefore, robustness of the conclusions is established.     

Efficiency change and growth in productivity: the Asian growth experience

This paper focuses on identifying the sources of productivity growth in ten Asian economies including China, Japan, the NIEs and the ASEAN-4. We calculate productivity growth and its components using distance-function-based Malmquist productivity indexes following Färe, Grosskopf, Norris, and Zhang (1994a). Hong Kong and Singapore are found to have the capabilities to shift the grand frontier of the APEC economies. But the productivity divergence might have occurred since the 70’s. The FDI contributes to the Asian growth either through catching-up or through technological innovations when a sufficient learning capacity is available in the host economy.