Trade size clustering and the cost of trading at the London Stock Exchange

For the London Stock Exchange, this paper investigates differences in trading costs between market maker (off-book) and order book trades, in the context of clustering in trade sizes and prices. We report several substantial findings. Even after controlling for differences in trade size, the realised spread measure is lower for off-book trades. For the order book, trade size clustering is not associated with differences in transaction costs nor with differences in the information content of trades. For the off-book market, trades in clustered (popular) sizes carry significantly more information than non-clustered trades. Despite the significant differences in the price impact estimates between the order book and off-book, we show that traders placing large orders off-book are still better off than trading via the order book as they benefit from a large discount from the current midpoint price. Additionally, we highlight that price and size clustering tend to occur simultaneously rather than being substitutes in this market setting.     

Risk measurement when shares are subject to infrequent trading: Comment

When securities are thinly traded OLS techniques yield biased beta estimates. Procedures for calculating consistent estimates are proposed by Scholes and Williams (1977) and by Dimson (1979). This comment examines both procedures and concludes that the Dimson procedure is incorrect and cannot generally be expected to yield consistent beta estimates. However, a variant of this procedure can yield results which are identical to Scholes and Williams' and is, therefore, correct.     

新三板股份买卖要当心

两则违规案例 案例1:当事人:陈某.经全国中小企业股份转让系统查明,陈某存在以下违规事实:2016年1月18日,陈某通过全国中小企业股份转让系统以协议方式转让增持挂牌公司八马茶业股份有限公司(以下简称八马茶业)60万股,交易完成后,陈某持股比例由9.64%上升至10.44%.2016年1月19日,陈某再行买入八马茶业241.1万股股份,违反了《非上市公众公众公司收购管理办法》第13条之规定.     

Mispricing of dual-class shares: Profit opportunities,arbitrage, and trading

This is the first paper to examine the microstructure of how mispricing is created and resolved. We study dual-class shares with equal cash flow rights and show that a simple trading strategy exploiting gaps between their prices appears to create abnormal profits after transactions costs. Trade and quote data show that investors shift their trading patterns to take advantage of gaps. Contrary to common perception, long–short arbitrage plays a minor part in eliminating gaps, and one-sided trades correct most of them. We also show that the more liquid share class is usually responsible for the price discrepancies.     

Options trading and the cost of debt

Equity option markets can have a dual effect on firms' cost of debt. On the one hand, options attract more informed investors, which increases price informativeness and reduces information asymmetries in the market, facilitating firm financing. On the other, by attracting more informed investors who provide reassurance regarding managerial career concerns, options can increase the potential for risk shifting in firms. We explore these two channels via different tests on corporate bond yields and use different econometric specifications including quasi-natural experiments to mitigate endogeneity concerns. We find evidence consistent with the preeminence of the risk-shifting channel when private managerial risk-taking incentives are sufficiently high and debtholders are more exposed to expropriation.     

Liquidity costs: Screen-based trading versus open outcry

The results reported in this paper challenge the popular belief that screen-based trading offered lower liquidity costs than the open-outcry approach during its first year of side-by-side operation in the U.S. financial derivatives market. Using time and sales data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) market profile data series, effective bid-ask spreads are estimated on the basis of daily and intraday measures of the Thompson-Waller and Smith-Whaley estimators. We find liquidity costs on the screen-based system vary with time and the level of floor trading activity. In particular, a one-tick market is observed just before the opening of the Chicago trading floor (6:30 to 7:30 am). However, subsequent intraday spreads exhibit the familiar “reverse J-shaped pattern”—highest following the opening of floor trading, declining until afternoon, and then increasing until close. Meanwhile, daily spread estimates average almost a quarter-tick higher on the screen-based market relative to the one-tick spread commonly associated with open outcry. This relationship remained robust across sample time-series and conservative price-change specifications. Since the study was conducted, electronic trading has become the predominant exchange medium for financial derivatives at the CBOT, following the example set in Europe's traditional futures exchanges, e.g. France's Matif, Germany's Deutsche Bourse and the U.K.'s Liffe.     

全球主要货币外汇交易比重变化与趋势——BIS三年一度中央银行调查报告解析

2013年9月,国际清算银行发布了《三年一度中央银行调查报告——2013年4月全球外汇交易统计初步结果》。通过与历年报告比较分析发现,近年来,全球外汇交易量显著增加：主要贷币交易量变化各异;外汇交易向主要金融中心汇浆趋势明显;人民币离岸外汇交易量激增,虽已成为全球第九大外汇交易贷币,但与其他主要贷币相比,交易量仍然较小。上述变化与特点,对中国积极推进人民币跨境使用和建设上海国际金融中心具有重要参考价值。     

Brokered versus dealer markets: Impact of proprietary trading with transaction fees

In this study, we consider a one-period financial market with a dealer/broker and an infinite number of investors. While the dealer who trades on his own account (with proprietary trading) simultaneously sets both the transaction fee and the asset price, the broker who brings investors' orders to the market (with no proprietary trading) sets only the transaction fee, given that the price is determined according to the market-clearing condition among investors. We analyze the impact of proprietary trading on the asset price, transaction fee, trading volume, and the welfare of investors. We find that the bid and ask prices set by the dealer who can engage in proprietary trading are more favorable to average investors. As a result, both the trading volume and the transaction fee increase, and social welfare improves.     

The effect of settlement regimes on trading cost and market efficiency: evidence from the National Stock Exchange

Using data from 65 of the most actively traded stocks from the National Stock Exchange of India we study the relationship between impact cost and three indicators of market efficiency under different settlement regimes. Our data is uniquely suited for this study because it encompasses a transition by the National Stock Exchange of India from fixed to rolling settlement. As a by-product of our study we are able to examine inefficiencies related to the day of the week on which trades are conducted for different settlement regimes. In summary our data reveals that rolling settlement reduces aggregate impact costs, leading to greater market efficiency. Employing a fixed effects model we show that impact cost has a stronger relationship to our indicators of market efficiency under rolling settlement. However, we find evidence of two structural inefficiencies related to the day-of-the-week on which trades are conducted: 1) under rolling settlement, trades conducted earlier in the week (and settled by Thursday) have lower impact costs, and 2) there is an impact cost premium for Friday trades.     

Information shares of two parallel currency options markets: Trading costs versus transparency/tradability

This paper studies whether trading costs or transparency/tradability are more important to price discovery using a unique dataset of currency options that trade simultaneously in two parallel markets. The Over-The-Counter (OTC) market is characterized by sophisticated investors, low trading costs, and low transparency/tradability compared to the Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE). Pricing errors are much larger on the TASE and the information share of the OTC market is significantly larger than that of the TASE by various information share measures, showing that trading costs and trader type have a first-order effect on price discovery while transparency/tradability have a second-order effect.     

Centralised order books versus hybrid order books: A paired comparison of trading costs on NSC (Euronext Paris) and SETS (London Stock Exchange)

This article compares the cost of trading large capitalisation equities on the hybrid order-driven segment of the London Stock Exchange and the centralised electronic order book of Euronext. Using samples of stocks matched according to economic sector, free float capitalisation, and trading volume, our study shows that transaction costs are lower on the centralised order book than on the hybrid order book. The presence of dealers outside the electronic order book favours the frequency of large trades, but is associated with higher execution costs for all other trades and higher adverse selection and inventory costs inside the order book.     

Stock splits, trading continuity, and the cost of equity capital

We hypothesize that managers use stock splits to attract more uninformed trading so that market makers can provide liquidity services at lower costs, thereby increasing investors’ trading propensity and improving liquidity. We examine a large sample of stock splits and find that, consistent with our hypothesis, the incidence of no trading decreases and liquidity risk is lower following splits, implying a decline in latent trading costs and a reduced cost of equity capital. Further, split announcement returns are correlated with the improvements in both liquidity levels and liquidity risk. Our analysis suggests nontrivial economic benefits from liquidity improvements, with less liquid firms benefiting more from stock splits.     

The relative efficiency of stock versus mutual S&Ls: A stochastic cost frontier approach

From an agency theory perspective, recent conversion activity of savings and loan associations (S&Ls) from mutual to stock organizations should improve the overall performance of the thrift industry. We employ a two-step approach to examine this issue using a sample of 559 S&Ls in the Atlanta Federal Home Loan Bank District in 1988. In the first step, we estimate inefficiency scores for individual S&Ls using a stochastic cost frontier methodology. In a second step Tobit model we use these inefficiency scores to examine the relationship between firm inefficiency and organizational form. We find three important results: (1) that the mutual and stock S&Ls in our sample have similar cost structures, allowing the pooling of S&L data; (2) that S&Ls have a wide range of inefficiency scores, with a mean score of 16 percent indicating that the average S&L could produce its output with only 84 percent of the inputs actually used; and (3) that operating inefficiency was not significantly related to form of ownership.     

The strategic reallocation of IPO shares

In this work, we study the reallocation of shares to retail and institutional investors, measured as the difference between the allocation declared before the initial public offering (IPO) and the effective allotment decided by the underwriter after the bookbuilding process. The reallocation is disaggregated into three components, two of which are under the direct control of the underwriter: the initial allocation, and the demand satisfaction ratio. The empirical analysis is based on a sample of 193 hybrid IPOs issued in Italy between 1997 and 2012. Controlling for firm and IPO characteristics, we find that the IPO shares are typically shifted toward institutional investors when positive information is collected during the bookbuilding process. The IPO pricing and share reallocation are found to be interdependent, and reallocation is used in combination with partial adjustment to reward institutional investors.     

Determinants of bid and ask quotes and implications for the cost of trading

Financial transaction costs are time varying. This paper proposes a model that relates transaction cost to characteristics of order flow. We obtain qualitatively consistent model results for different stocks and across different time periods. We find that an unusual excess of buyers (sellers) relative to sellers (buyers) tends to increase the ask (bid) price. Hence, the ask and bid components of spread change asymmetrically about the efficient price. For a fixed order imbalance surprise these effects are muted when unanticipated total volume is high. Unexpected high volatility in the transaction price process tends to widen the spread symmetrically about the efficient price. Our findings are consistent with predications from market microstructure theory that the cost of market making should depend on both the risk of trading with better-informed traders and inventory risk. We also find that order flow surprises have a significant impact on the efficient price and can also explain a substantial amount of persistence in the volatility of the efficient price. This dependence does not violate the efficient market hypothesis since the surprises, by definition, are not predictable.     

Analyst versus model-based earnings forecasts: implied cost of capital applications

We find that a composite implied cost of capital (ICC) estimate – based on the earnings forecasts generated by cross-sectional models – is highly correlated with future realised returns in both portfolio- and regression-based tests. By contrast, we find very little evidence for an association with future realised returns for an ICC estimate based on analyst earnings forecasts. We also document the time-varying nature of expected returns and risk premia, and provide up-to-date estimates of an implied Australian market risk premium.     

关注中国股市大变革——股权分置改革存在的风险

经过百日股权分置改革的试点，业内对段权分置改革存在的风险基本达成共识，随着股权分置改革进入全面铺开阶段。目前人们有四个方面的担心。如果这些疑虑不能消除。人们对未来预期的不确定性会增加．股改的风险将会加大。     

The determinants of price discovery: Evidence from US-Canadian cross-listed shares

We examine the determinants of price discovery for Canadian firms cross-listed on the main US stock exchanges over the period 1996–2011. Sampling at a one-minute frequency, we compute Gonzalo and Granger Component Shares (CS) and employ a system GMM approach to control for persistence in price discovery and endogeneity between CS and its determinants. We find that price discovery is highly persistent and that there is strong evidence of simultaneity between CS and its determinants. We conclude that lower relative spreads and higher relative trading activity increase an exchange’s contribution to price discovery. We also document that it is small trades that drive price discovery, particularly since the introduction of decimalization.     

Dividend Signalling Equilibria: Quantitative Evidence From The Brussels Stock Exchange

The objective of this research is to document the market reaction to dividend changes on the Brussels Stock Exchange and to relate it to information releases by the firms. The results show important differences between Belgian investors' behavior and U.S. investors' behavior. On the Brussels Stock Exchange, when companies use dividends as the usual way to remunerate stockholders, the market reaction to unexpected dividend changes is weak and statistically insignificant. The market reaction to dividend initiations is also quite insignificant. However, when companies both release information regarding their activities (commercial, financial, or social information) and initiate dividends, the market reaction is comparable to what has been documented in previous U.S. studies.     

The premium of dynamic trading

It is well established that, in a market with inclusion of a risk-free asset, the single-period mean–variance efficient frontier is a straight line tangent to the risky region, a fact that is the very foundation of the classical CAPM. In this paper, it is shown that, in a continuous-time market where the risky prices are described by Itô processes and the investment opportunity set is deterministic (albeit time-varying), any efficient portfolio must involve allocation to the risk-free asset at any time. As a result, the dynamic mean–variance efficient frontier, although still a straight line, is strictly above the entire risky region. This in turn suggests a positive premium, in terms of the Sharpe ratio of the efficient frontier, arising from dynamic trading. Another implication is that the inclusion of a risk-free asset boosts the Sharpe ratio of the efficient frontier, which again contrasts sharply with the single-period case.