东北亚国家出口多样化与经济增长的关系——基于动态面板数据的系统GMM估计

利用1996—2010年东北亚国家的贸易数据,验证了出口多样化与人均GDP之间的关系,并采用系统广义矩方法建立动态面板数据模型,估计了出口多样化对经济增长的贡献。结果表明:就东北亚单个国家而言,出口多样化与人均GDP之间呈U型变动关系,但就东北亚整体而言,这种U型关系并不明显;从东北亚国家的经验来看,出口多样化对经济增长具有积极作用;目前我国出口正处于从多样化向集中化转变的上升阶段,尚未达到U型曲线的拐点。     

Kicking a crude habit: diversifying away from oil and gas in the twenty-first century

Abstract

This article investigates the correlates of diversification away from oil and natural gas dependence in the context of the twenty-first century resource boom (and bust). In a sample of 40 oil- and gas-dependent economies, the majority showed significant sectoral diversification of GDP, but exports remained highly concentrated in fuel exports. Regression analysis indicates that countries that began the boom with higher levels of oil and gas dependence, poorer countries, and those with significantly larger- or smaller-than-average populations were more successful in diversifying their GDP during the commodities boom. Governance matters – more effective, capable bureaucratic structures are associated with greater GDP diversification away from oil and gas – though the effects are not uniformly positive. For any given level of government effectiveness, stronger rule of law is associated with less GDP diversification. Education appears to affect GDP and export diversification differentially. Consistent with endogenous growth theory, countries with more educated populations saw greater growth in their nonresource sectors than countries with less educated populations, though education is associated with greater export concentration. Internal economic diversification in the twenty-first century has been less a matter of policy formation and implementation, and more a matter of factors that shape the policy-making environment.     

What does export diversification do for growth? An econometric analysis

It is frequently suggested that export diversification contributes to an acceleration of growth in developing countries. Horizontal export diversification into completely new export sectors may generate positive externalities on the rest of the economy as export oriented sectors gain from dynamic learning activities due to contacts with foreign purchasers and exposure to international competition. Vertical diversification out of primary into manufactured exports is also associated with growth since primary export sectors generally do not exhibit strong spillovers. Yet there have been remarkably few empirical investigations into the link between export diversification and growth. This paper attempts to examine the hypothesis that export diversification is linked to economic growth via externalities of learning-by-doing and learning-by-exporting fostered by competition in world markets. The diversification-led growth hypothesis is tested by estimating an augmented Cobb–Douglas production function on the basis of annual time series data from Chile. Based on the theory of cointegration three types of statistical methodologies are used: the Johansen trace test, a multivariate error-correction model and the dynamic OLS procedure. Given structural changes in the Chilean economy, time series techniques considering structural breaks are applied. The estimation results suggest that export diversification plays an important role in economic growth.     

The export-output growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap rolling window approach

The purpose of this article is to examine the export–output nexus in Japan by taking into account the time variation in the causal link with bootstrap Granger non-causality test and rolling estimation. The data used cover the seasonally adjusted real export and real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the 1957:1–2009:1 period. Standard Granger causality tests indicate no causality between export and real GDP series. On the contrary, full sample-modified Granger causality tests based on bootstrap, which are applicable irrespective of integration–cointegration properties of the data, indicate a bi-directional causal link between exports and real GDP. Accordingly, export growth should be an important factor behind Japan’s high-economic growth in the last three decades. Using parameter stability tests, we show that these results are not uniform for different sample periods and results vary due to structural changes. Using bootstrap rolling window estimation, we find that there is a positive bi-directional predictive power from the mid 1970s to the late-1980s between the series, while from the late 1990s to 2009 there is a positive predictive power only from export growth to output growth.     

Trade openness reduces growth volatility when countries are well diversified

This paper addresses the mechanisms by which trade openness affects growth volatility. Using a diverse set of export concentration measures, we present strong evidence pointing to an important role for export diversification in conditioning the effect of trade openness on growth volatility. Indeed, the effect of openness on volatility is shown to be negative for a significant proportion of countries with relatively diversified export baskets.     

An Analysis of Exports and Growth in India: Cointegration and Causality Evidence (1971–2001)

The relationship between exports and economic growth has been analysed by a number of recent empirical studies. This paper re‐examines the sources of growth for the period 1971–2001 for India. It builds upon Feder's (1983 ) model to investigate empirically the relationship between export growth and GDP growth (the export led growth hypothesis), using recent data from the Reserve Bank of India, and by focusing on GDP growth and GDP growth net of exports. We investigate the following hypotheses: (i) whether exports, imports and GDP are cointegrated using the Johansen approach and Breitung's nonparametric cointegration test; (ii) whether export growth Granger causes GDP growth; (iii) and whether export growth Granger causes investment. Finally, a VAR is constructed and impulse response functions (IRFs) are employed to investigate the effects of macroeconomic shocks.     

A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis

This article challenges the common view that exports generally contribute more to GDP growth than a pure change in export volume, as the export-led growth hypothesis predicts. Applying panel cointegration techniques to a production function with non-export GDP as the dependent variable, we find for a sample of 45 developing countries that: (i) exports have a positive short-run effect on non-export GDP and vice versa (short-run bidirectional causality), (ii) the long-run effect of exports on non-export output, however, is negative on average, but (iii) there are large differences in the long-run effect of exports on non-export GDP across countries. Cross-sectional regressions indicate that these cross-country differences in the long-run effect of exports on non-export GDP are significantly negatively related to cross-country differences in primary export dependence and business and labor market regulation. In contrast, there is no significant association between the growth effect of exports and the capacity of a country to absorb new knowledge.     

Export–led growth and structural change: evidence from Malaysia

Many studies have tried to establish the causal link between export expansion and economic growth. This contribution is to recognize that structural changes will change the sources of growth and this will affect the export-growth relationship. A country case study approach is used focusing on Malaysia, a country with one of the world's highest sustained growth rates and a long history of commodity trade. We use VAR analysis of Malaysian quarterly trade and GDP growth from 1965 to 1996. Trade data are disaggregated into primary and manufactures exports and causality tests are applied to the entire period as well as two subperiods #150 the 1965 #1501980 period when policy emphasis was on import substitution and the 1981#1501996 period when policies favoured export-led growth. Statistical tests confirm export-led growth for the full period and for the period to 1980 but tests on the 1981#1501996 period show growth causing exports. Primary exports had a stronger direct impact on economic growth than manufactures. The weakening support for export-led growth after Malaysia shifted to an export-oriented development strategy is associated with structural changes associated with industrialization. Interaction among trade and growth variables becomes more complex with a broadening export base and more diverse sources of growth.     

An estimation of import demand,export supply and technical change for Korea

This paper estimates import demand and export supply functions for Korea based on the translog restricted profit (or GNP) function. It also estimates biases of technological change and applies decomposition analysis to examine the effects of technical change on input demand within the profit function framework. Our findings show that (a) factor inputs, as well as outputs, are, in general, moderately price-elastic and substitutable among each other. (b) the production of investment goods, as well as export goods, is capital-intensive while the production of consumption goods is labout-intensive, (c) technical change is labour-saving and is biased against imports, and (d) there has been a rapid decline of export supply price-elasticity which may be attributable to the rapid growth of export share of GDP (from 4% in 1964 to 38% in 1983). The larger the relative size of export sector and the faster the rate of its growth, the harder will it be to expand export production by drawing own resources from the domestic sector.     

Trade partner diversification and growth: How trade links matter

We analyze the effects of a country’s export connections on its income growth using trade partner diversification (TPD) measures that capture the country’s relative importance in the international trade network. On top of the standard trade openness measures, TPD measures are shown to enter growth regressions positively and significantly, where one standard deviation increase in TPD is associated with a 1–1.5 percentage point increase in the annual growth rate. Threshold analyses show that TPD measures are positively and significantly correlated with growth in countries that have low financial depth, high inflation, low levels of human capital, or high trade openness.     

The determinants of banking efficiency in Hong Kong 2004-2014

The cost efficiency of the Hong Kong Banking sector over the period 2004–2014 is estimated by data envelopment window analysis. A second stage regression analysis finds that bank size and GDP growth are positively associated with efficiency, whereas revenue diversification and inflation are associated with lower efficiency. Stock exchange listing status is associated with lower efficiency but no clear relationship between measures of market structure and efficiency is found.     

Export Growth and Domestic Performance

A VAR approach is used to analyze the effects of export growth on the evolution of GDP, domestic employment, and investment in 39 economies. The results strongly support the export-led growth hypothesis. Export growth affects GDP growth positively in 30 countries. In six countries, all of them inward-looking, the effects are negative. For these countries, and for these countries alone, export growth has a negative effect on the evolution of both domestic employment and investment. This also suggests the importance of the indirect effects of exports on GDP growth.     

Openness in the Canadian economy: 1870–1988

The causal relation between openness and GDP and between exports and imports are examined. Causality test carried out in growth rates showed that over the period 1870–1988 openness, both narrowly and broadly defined, Granger-causes GDP growth; tests for the inverse causality produced mixed results, validating causality from GDP growth to export plus import growth, but rejecting causlaity from GDP growth to export growth; it was also found that export growth causes import growth, but not the opposite. Causality tests over four subperiods indicated the importance of openness for only the earliest phase of Canadian economic development. While the absence of causality in the later subperiods is largely compatible with the experience of the industrial countries, no meaningful comparison can be made between the experience of Canada and that of developing countries owing to causality variations of openness and to large differences in resource endowments.     

外商直接投资与天津出口贸易的互动关系——基于脉冲响应函数法的实证分析

本文利用天津1980-2007年的年度统计数据,运用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验方法分析了出口贸易与外商直接投资之间的关系,并利用广义脉冲响应函数和方差分解法进一步分析了两者间的动态关系。研究结果表明,天津的出口贸易与外商直接投资、贸易伙伴国的经济增长和进口贸易之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,外商直接投资、贸易伙伴国的经济增长和进口贸易都是出口贸易变动的原因。从动态角度看,在短期内,天津出口贸易对外商直接投资冲击的反应短期较为明显,而贸易伙伴国经济增长与进口贸易对出口贸易的影响在短期并不显著;从长期来看,FDI对出口贸易具有明显的替代效应,出口贸易增长主要依赖于进口贸易,而贸易伙伴国经济增长对出口贸易的影响作用十分有限。     

On the relevance of exports for regional output growth in China

Despite high economic growth during the past decades, China is still vulnerable to shocks arising from industrial states. The advanced economies strongly influence Chinese export performance, with subsequent effects on output growth. Using a production function, this article examines to which extent regional GDP growth in China is export driven. In a panel of 28 Chinese provinces, series are splitted into common and idiosyncratic components, the latter being stationary. The results indicate cointegration between the common components of GDP, the capital stock and exports. In equilibrium, exports increase GDP by more than their impact expected from the national accounts. While exports and capital are weakly exogenous, GDP responds to deviations from the long run. A similar adjustment pattern can be detected for most regions, except for some provinces in the Western part of the country.     

出口对中国GDP增长的贡献——基于投入产出表的实证分析

本文推导了利用投入产出表计算出口对GDP形成及增长贡献的方法。在1 997年投入产出表的基础上本文计算了 1 997年— 2 0 0 1年我国出口对GDP形成及增长的贡献 ,计算并分析了各部门的出口对GDP增长的贡献 ,分析并揭示了 1 997年— 2 0 0 1年单位出口贡献率下降的原因。     

Export diversification in a transitioning economy

How does the process of export diversification take place in an economy in transition, especially in light of government policy aimed at trade liberalization? This article examines this question by considering a directed policy effort by Syria – an economy in transition from both economic centralization and resource dependence – to liberalize its trade between 2001 and 2008. In addition to documenting the patterns of diversification at the aggregate level since the implementation of the policy, we also examine factors that are related to diversification at the sectoral level. Our findings suggest that, while Syria has achieved reasonably rapid export diversification, this may to a large extent be the result of structural transformations in the economy, and that further diversification may require continued policy reform designed to strengthen Syria's weak institutional and business environment.     

Export-led growth: the case of the Slovenian and Estonian economies

The export-led growth hypothesis is investigated in the case of the two small, open and export-oriented Slovenian and Estonian economies. The Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality test were applied to investigate the relationship between the time series variables for export, import and gross domestic product (GDP). The results reveal evidence to support the export-led growth hypothesis in both economies. The Granger causality relationship is found between export growth and economic (GDP) growth for both countries. Slovenia and Estonia can enhance economic growth by providing a better enabling environment for exporters and by market expansion.     

Why don't firms export more? Product quality and Colombian plants

Exporting firms around the world ship only a small fraction of their output overseas. For firms in a large country, such as the United States, this behavior can be explained by the existence of a large domestic market. For firms in a small lower income country, such as Colombia, the lower share of exports remains a puzzle. This paper begins by illustrating the failure of current models to explain plant export patterns in Colombia. Even models that do well in describing the US export distribution fail when confronted with the Colombian data. In response to this puzzle, this paper suggests that Colombia's export distribution can be explained with a two-dimensional productivity space where output productivity is considered separately from quality productivity. Predictions of this theory are tested on Colombian plant level data from 1981–1991. Overall, product quality is shown to be a significant factor in explaining the tendency for Colombian plants to under-export manufactured goods to the United States.     

Material implication of Chile's economic growth: Combining material flow accounting (MFA) and structural decomposition analysis (SDA)

Over the last three decades, the economic integration of the Chilean economy into global markets has been taking place at a rapid pace. For example, in 1986, exports represented 29% of GDP while in 1996 they had increased to 38% of GDP. This period of time was characterized by strong economic growth with an average annual growth rate of about 10%. From a physical perspective, material requirements more than doubled from 220 to 500 million tons of direct material inputs (DMI) during the same decade (the rate of material growth requirements was around 13% per year).The main objective of this study is to explain the changes in DMI by using a structural decomposition analysis (SDA). The changes in material flow accounting (MFA) were broken down into the effects caused by changes in resource use per unit of output (material intensity effect), changes between and within sectors (structural change effect), changes in the composition of final demand (mix effect), changes due to shifting shares of domestic final demand and export categories (category effect) and finally changes in the overall level of economic activities (level effects). The results, as a percentage of the total level of DMI used in 1986, indicate that economic growth was the major source of material changes (109%). The material intensity and category effects explained 31% and 14% of the increase, respectively. The increase in the material intensity is mainly due to a declining quality of ores in copper production. However, these components were partly compensated by the structure (− 14%) and mix (− 13%) effects. Therefore, for a Southern American country such as Chile, the main causes of these changes in material consumption have been a combination of the nature of economic growth along with an increase in export production and material intensity of production.