Export Growth and Domestic Performance

A VAR approach is used to analyze the effects of export growth on the evolution of GDP, domestic employment, and investment in 39 economies. The results strongly support the export-led growth hypothesis. Export growth affects GDP growth positively in 30 countries. In six countries, all of them inward-looking, the effects are negative. For these countries, and for these countries alone, export growth has a negative effect on the evolution of both domestic employment and investment. This also suggests the importance of the indirect effects of exports on GDP growth.     

Women's Work and Agency in GPNS during Economic Crises: The Case of the Greek Table Grapes Export Sector

The expansion of global production networks (GPNs) has shifted women’s roles in agriculture worldwide. Financial and economic crises have intensified commercial pressures, leading to precariousness in women’s work. This has been magnified by government austerity measures. This article combines the GPN and feminist political economy literatures to investigate how the tensions between commercial pressures and gender relations and institutions in a time of economic crisis drive precariousness in women’s work and the implications for women’s adaptive agency. These questions are explored through the case of the table grapes export sector in Greece. The study finds that women farmworkers went back to waged and/or unwaged work in table grapes, but the need for their skilled work enabled them to retain some agency, even as unwaged laborers.     

Firm Growth,European Industry Dynamics and Domestic Business Cycles

Based on the empirical firm growth literature and on heterogeneous (microeconomic) adjustment models, this paper empirically investigates the impact of European industry fluctuations and domestic business cycles on the growth performance of European firms. Since the implementation of the Single Market Program the 27 EU member states share a common market. Accordingly, the European industry business cycle is expected to become a more influential predictor of European firms’ behavior at the expense of domestic fluctuations. Empirically, the results of a two‐part model for a sample of European manufacturing firms reject this hypothesis. In addition, exporting firms and subsidiaries of multinational enterprises constitute the most stable firm cohort throughout the observed business cycle.     

贸易成本、企业出口动态与出口增长的二元边际-基于中国出口企业微观数据:2000-2005

本文基于企业异质性贸易理论框架,利用中国海关数据从企业层面将中国出口增长分解为扩展边际(出口企业数量)与集约边际(单位企业的平均出口额),描述了中国企业出口动态和二元边际结构,并考察不同贸易成本的作用机制。结果发现,2000—2005年间尽管扩展边际的波动幅度远大于集约边际,中国出口的增长仍大部分是由持续出口企业的贸易额扩大实现的;各种因素对二元边际的作用机制和程度不尽相同,经济规模、距离和贸易成本的变动主要通过扩展边际影响贸易流量。     

The Spanish Tomato Export Sector of the Almeria Region: An Econometric Approach

This article analyzes the current situation of the tomato export sector of Almeria, the principal exporting province of Spain. First, a critical view is presented relating to the internal organization of this sector; the most important problem observed is the marketing system which is atomized, heterogeneous and significantly difficult for raising funds from the individual partners in order to begin innovative projects. Second, to establish whether this area is losing market share, the sector is compared to the other principal tomato suppliers of the European Union (the Netherlands, Morocco, and other areas of Spain). The analysis shows Almeria has defended its market share in the most recent years. Finally, the most influential variables in the commercial process are analyzed by a tomato export model that shows there are substitution effects of the Almerian tomato for products from others origins, mostly the Netherlands.

The Financial Sector and Economic Growth*

The Mankiw–Romer–Weil (1992) augmented Solow–Swan ( Solow 1956 ; Swan 1956 ) model is extended to incorporate the financial sector in this study. Distinguishing between financial capital, physical capital and human capital, the research attempts to identify, in particular, the effects of financial capital on economic growth. The effects of financial sector efficiency on economic growth are also examined. The financial sector augmented model is tested on a cross‐section of 35 economies. Strong support is found for the model.     

Domestic Violence Against Rural Women in Colombia: The Role of Labor Income

This paper analyzes the effect of women’s earnings on domestic violence in rural Colombia during the period 2009–2013. To this end, it builds an indicator of domestic violence against women at the municipal level, based on the number of visits of women who attended health facilities where a report on suspected domestic violence was issued by their physician, which overcomes the bias introduced by self-reporting victims. Results indicate that greater income generation by women in rural areas in most economic activities (coffee, fruits, commerce, and industry) decreases domestic violence, while in services, the opposite occurs. The latter could be the result of the mainly menial jobs women perform in this sector, which may be undervalued in their homes, thus making them more vulnerable. The study also finds that improvements in the municipality’s economic activity and access to education contribute to the reduction of domestic violence against women.     

Central Bank Independence,Inflation and Uncertainty: The Case of Colombia

Colombia undertook reform of its central bank in 1991, pushing it in the direction of greater independence. We find that this reform led to a significant decrease in the level of inflation, as well as inflation uncertainty, suggesting an increase in credibility. However, there has also been an increase in inflation persistence since reform. The lower mean but greater persistence of inflation indicates that central bank independence has shifted the Phillips curve inward but also flattened it, a result consistent with recent research for the Euro-zone and the United States. Finally, further analysis reveals that, in accordance with the Friedman-Ball hypothesis, higher inflation raises uncertainty in Colombia, but that uncertainty does not increase inflation.     

Scenarios and Actors' Strategies:: The Case of the Agri-Foodstuff Sector

The importance of the agricultural market in France prompted BASF to seek out a new way of strengthening relations with its partners in the agrifood sector. In 1996, against a backdrop of change (EU legislation) and upheaval (Mad Cow Disease), BASF offered operations managers or officers of distribution companies an opportunity to reflect upon the future in a workshop setting. This innovative three-stage exercise, guided by Professor Michel Godet (CNAM) and the Gerpa consulting team, met with enthusiasm, and was expanded beyond the original group and time frame. In fact, the distribution chain was opened up to include various actors, for example, consumer advocacy groups, so that we speak of the agri-food channel and sector. Original questions focused on farmers' expectations and distribution problems with specific horizon lines. Environmental and genetic issues soon came to the forefront. Besides workshops and meetings, the Delphi-Régnier Abacus technique was applied, as explained in this step-by-step review of the BASF project. Overall, futures thinking has become part of the BASF France way of doing business. Indeed, the BASF “Futures Studies Group,” expanded to include mass distribution representatives, intends to continue working on the very timely theme of food safety.     

Varying Political Economy Weights of Protection: The Case of Colombia

In this paper, we examine trade policy determinants and trade reform in a developing country setting using a political economy model. The government determines tariffs by balancing the political support from producers vs. consumers, while placing a higher political weight on producers’ welfare relative to average citizens. We then expand the model in several directions to guide our subsequent estimations at the three‐digit industry level for Colombia between 1983 and 1998. We account for import substitution motives for protection but describe how the government's move away from these policies leads to unilateral trade liberalization. We innovatively allow the political weights to vary based on key industry variables beyond a common denominator. The sectors with higher employment, labor cost, and preferential trade agreement (PTA) import shares receive a larger political weight compared to otherwise similar sectors. The novelty of our approach is estimating the effect of sectoral characteristics on protection filtered through the political weights. We obtain more realistic estimates for these weights and provide some evidence for a slowing down effect of PTAs on trade liberalization.     

出口与内需的结构背离:成因及影响

本文基于ISIC四分位产业数据,测算了51个国家出口与内需的结构背离度,在多国研究中发现:虽然发挥比较优势和深度融入产品内分工等自然因素会使结构背离成为合理常态,但制度不完善使得内需引致出口功能缺位,导致背离本土需求的扭曲性出口产品结构;而制度引发的结构背离会使一个国家——特别是拥有较大本土市场的大国——出口升级失去国内需求这一重要的外贸优势来源,从而加大被套牢于低端产品结构的风险。据此,通过构建内需引致出口的制度环境,矫正严重脱离本土需求的扭曲性出口模式,形成依托国内大市场的内生外贸发展机制,是中国这类发展中大国在新发展阶段重塑外贸升级根本动力应当倚重的特殊途径。     

中国出口增长的三元边际

本文首创了贸易增长的三元分解框架,并且利用1995-2004年六分位贸易数据,将中国出口增长分解为广度增长、数量增长与价格增长,在此基础上利用非参数技术研究了中国出口增长模式.结论发现:中国出口产品价格低、数量高;从增长看,数量增长速度最快,广度增长速度次之,两者共同成就了中国出口的迅速增长;价格对出口增长几乎没有贡献;这一结论对于不同技术、不同数据是稳健的.     

Export,Exchange Rate Risk and Hedging: The Duopoly Case

Abstract. This paper studies a Cournot duopoly in international trade with firms exposed to exchange rate risk. A hedging opportunity is introduced by a forward market on which one firm can trade the foreign currency. We investigate two settings: First, we assume that hedging and output decisions are taken simultaneously. It is shown that hedging is exclusively done for risk‐managing reasons as it is not possible to use hedging strategically. Second, the hedging decision is made before the output decisions. We show that hedging is not only used to manage the risk exposure but also as a strategic device.     

出口产品质量、出口关系存续与增长

本文检验了我国企业出口产品质量提升对企业出口关系存续及其增长率的影响。研究结果表明:企业出口产品质量升级有利于企业出口关系的存续,并能够提升其出口增长率。稳健性检验显示,更换产品质量测算方法、样本区间、计量方法等并不影响本文基本结论,且在考虑了内生性问题后,本文基本结论依然不变。从影响机制来看,产品质量升级通过增强消费者偏好提高了企业出口关系存续概率,通过增强消费者偏好以及提高出口价格促进了出口增长率提升;同时,产品质量升级还通过提高企业出口关系存活概率进一步促进了企业出口增长率的提升。最后,异质性检验结果显示,出口产品质量提高对外资企业和出口到高收入国家的企业出口关系存续的积极影响较大,而对私营企业和出口到低收入国家的出口增长率的积极影响较大。     

不确定性与中国出口增长

本文针对近期中国出口波动幅度增加以及国际金融危机以来贸易出现"过度反应"的事实,利用中国对59个主要贸易伙伴的出口数据以及出口目标国的宏观经济变量,研究了外部不确定性与中国出口波动的数量关系和因果关系。研究发现:(1)从数量关系上来看,不确定性和外部冲击会对中国出口产生负面影响,而且这个影响的量级在短期内要远远大于传统上所考虑的供给、需求以及汇率因素所产生的影响;(2)使用灾难数据作为工具变量的两阶段最小二乘法估计表明,不确定性与中国出口增长存在着稳定的负向因果关系;(3)不确定性冲击对中国出口的影响具有异质性特征。这些发现意味着营造一个稳定有序的经济环境应该成为政策制定者的首要之选,而企业要着力对未来的需求形成科学有效的预判,以期对冲不确定性对出口增长的影响。     

Productivity in a Distorted Market: The Case of Brazil's Retail Sector

In a model of monopolistic competition with heterogeneous firms, distortions in prices drive a wedge between the marginal revenue products of factor inputs across firms. We use census data for Brazil's retail sector to study implications for aggregate productivity and relate distortions to regional variation in regulation using a differences‐in‐differences approach. Taxes, entry regulation, and access to credit may create distortions to output and capital that varies by firm size. Potential gains from reallocation have not diminished despite the process of services liberalization in the 1990s.     

Tax Policy and Tax Administration in Russia: The Case of the Banking Sector

The 'informal' sector of an economy is generally seen as a private sphere, where agents seek to escape the reach of the state and, in particular, the tax organs. However, given the weakness of the Russian state and the enormous scale of informal economic activity, the fiscal authorities try to cope, at least in part, by adopting informal strategies of their own. This paper aims to deepen our understanding of how this informal fiscal system actually works. While the analysis here focuses on the banking system, its implications for tax and accounting reform extend far beyond the banking sector.     

Dynamics of Export Market Entry and Exit*

We apply discrete time duration models to explain the duration until new plants start to export and the duration until exit from the export markets, using data on Finnish manufacturing plants. Plants that are large, young, highly productive, and with high‐capital intensity are likely to enter the export market earlier and to survive in the export market longer. Foreign ownership increases chances of export entry, especially for small and low human capital plants, and decreases the risk of export failure for large, high‐productivity plants. The upper and lower tails of the productivity distribution are represented by plants that start exporting and those that are exiting, respectively.     

The Global Economic Crisis and Migrant Workers: The Case of the Construction Sector in Europe

This paper examines the employment response of native and migrant workers over the business cycle in the construction sectors of European countries between 2008 and 2011. Using a dynamic model (Generalized Method of Moments), which accounts for ‘intergroup substitutability’, we observe that differences in the cyclical employment patterns of migrants and natives in the construction sector may be due to a potential selection of EU and non-EU migrants who are disproportionately prone to cyclical fluctuations in temporary jobs or a higher turnover rate.     

Trade Taxes and Welfare: The Case of Export Incentives in South-East Asian Countries

It is now widely recognised that the distortions common in many developing countries lead to a bias against exporting. In consequence many governments have begun to provide export incentives aimed at compensating for this bias. This article begins by examining the range of such incentives offered in South-East Asian countires. It then goes on to use the standard theory of the second-best to develop a simple framework within which these policies can be assessed. The difficulties encountered in constructing a system of export incentives that will not introduce distortions of their own are highlighted. The constraints imposed by GATT obligations are also noted.