Export Growth and Domestic Performance

A VAR approach is used to analyze the effects of export growth on the evolution of GDP, domestic employment, and investment in 39 economies. The results strongly support the export-led growth hypothesis. Export growth affects GDP growth positively in 30 countries. In six countries, all of them inward-looking, the effects are negative. For these countries, and for these countries alone, export growth has a negative effect on the evolution of both domestic employment and investment. This also suggests the importance of the indirect effects of exports on GDP growth.     

Firm Growth,European Industry Dynamics and Domestic Business Cycles

Based on the empirical firm growth literature and on heterogeneous (microeconomic) adjustment models, this paper empirically investigates the impact of European industry fluctuations and domestic business cycles on the growth performance of European firms. Since the implementation of the Single Market Program the 27 EU member states share a common market. Accordingly, the European industry business cycle is expected to become a more influential predictor of European firms’ behavior at the expense of domestic fluctuations. Empirically, the results of a two‐part model for a sample of European manufacturing firms reject this hypothesis. In addition, exporting firms and subsidiaries of multinational enterprises constitute the most stable firm cohort throughout the observed business cycle.     

The Spanish Tomato Export Sector of the Almeria Region: An Econometric Approach

This article analyzes the current situation of the tomato export sector of Almeria, the principal exporting province of Spain. First, a critical view is presented relating to the internal organization of this sector; the most important problem observed is the marketing system which is atomized, heterogeneous and significantly difficult for raising funds from the individual partners in order to begin innovative projects. Second, to establish whether this area is losing market share, the sector is compared to the other principal tomato suppliers of the European Union (the Netherlands, Morocco, and other areas of Spain). The analysis shows Almeria has defended its market share in the most recent years. Finally, the most influential variables in the commercial process are analyzed by a tomato export model that shows there are substitution effects of the Almerian tomato for products from others origins, mostly the Netherlands.

The Financial Sector and Economic Growth*

The Mankiw–Romer–Weil (1992) augmented Solow–Swan ( Solow 1956 ; Swan 1956 ) model is extended to incorporate the financial sector in this study. Distinguishing between financial capital, physical capital and human capital, the research attempts to identify, in particular, the effects of financial capital on economic growth. The effects of financial sector efficiency on economic growth are also examined. The financial sector augmented model is tested on a cross‐section of 35 economies. Strong support is found for the model.     

Scenarios and Actors' Strategies:: The Case of the Agri-Foodstuff Sector

The importance of the agricultural market in France prompted BASF to seek out a new way of strengthening relations with its partners in the agrifood sector. In 1996, against a backdrop of change (EU legislation) and upheaval (Mad Cow Disease), BASF offered operations managers or officers of distribution companies an opportunity to reflect upon the future in a workshop setting. This innovative three-stage exercise, guided by Professor Michel Godet (CNAM) and the Gerpa consulting team, met with enthusiasm, and was expanded beyond the original group and time frame. In fact, the distribution chain was opened up to include various actors, for example, consumer advocacy groups, so that we speak of the agri-food channel and sector. Original questions focused on farmers' expectations and distribution problems with specific horizon lines. Environmental and genetic issues soon came to the forefront. Besides workshops and meetings, the Delphi-Régnier Abacus technique was applied, as explained in this step-by-step review of the BASF project. Overall, futures thinking has become part of the BASF France way of doing business. Indeed, the BASF “Futures Studies Group,” expanded to include mass distribution representatives, intends to continue working on the very timely theme of food safety.     

出口与内需的结构背离:成因及影响

本文基于ISIC四分位产业数据,测算了51个国家出口与内需的结构背离度,在多国研究中发现:虽然发挥比较优势和深度融入产品内分工等自然因素会使结构背离成为合理常态,但制度不完善使得内需引致出口功能缺位,导致背离本土需求的扭曲性出口产品结构;而制度引发的结构背离会使一个国家——特别是拥有较大本土市场的大国——出口升级失去国内需求这一重要的外贸优势来源,从而加大被套牢于低端产品结构的风险。据此,通过构建内需引致出口的制度环境,矫正严重脱离本土需求的扭曲性出口模式,形成依托国内大市场的内生外贸发展机制,是中国这类发展中大国在新发展阶段重塑外贸升级根本动力应当倚重的特殊途径。     

Export,Exchange Rate Risk and Hedging: The Duopoly Case

Abstract. This paper studies a Cournot duopoly in international trade with firms exposed to exchange rate risk. A hedging opportunity is introduced by a forward market on which one firm can trade the foreign currency. We investigate two settings: First, we assume that hedging and output decisions are taken simultaneously. It is shown that hedging is exclusively done for risk‐managing reasons as it is not possible to use hedging strategically. Second, the hedging decision is made before the output decisions. We show that hedging is not only used to manage the risk exposure but also as a strategic device.     

出口产品质量、出口关系存续与增长

本文检验了我国企业出口产品质量提升对企业出口关系存续及其增长率的影响。研究结果表明:企业出口产品质量升级有利于企业出口关系的存续,并能够提升其出口增长率。稳健性检验显示,更换产品质量测算方法、样本区间、计量方法等并不影响本文基本结论,且在考虑了内生性问题后,本文基本结论依然不变。从影响机制来看,产品质量升级通过增强消费者偏好提高了企业出口关系存续概率,通过增强消费者偏好以及提高出口价格促进了出口增长率提升;同时,产品质量升级还通过提高企业出口关系存活概率进一步促进了企业出口增长率的提升。最后,异质性检验结果显示,出口产品质量提高对外资企业和出口到高收入国家的企业出口关系存续的积极影响较大,而对私营企业和出口到低收入国家的出口增长率的积极影响较大。     

不确定性与中国出口增长

本文针对近期中国出口波动幅度增加以及国际金融危机以来贸易出现"过度反应"的事实,利用中国对59个主要贸易伙伴的出口数据以及出口目标国的宏观经济变量,研究了外部不确定性与中国出口波动的数量关系和因果关系。研究发现:(1)从数量关系上来看,不确定性和外部冲击会对中国出口产生负面影响,而且这个影响的量级在短期内要远远大于传统上所考虑的供给、需求以及汇率因素所产生的影响;(2)使用灾难数据作为工具变量的两阶段最小二乘法估计表明,不确定性与中国出口增长存在着稳定的负向因果关系;(3)不确定性冲击对中国出口的影响具有异质性特征。这些发现意味着营造一个稳定有序的经济环境应该成为政策制定者的首要之选,而企业要着力对未来的需求形成科学有效的预判,以期对冲不确定性对出口增长的影响。     

Tax Policy and Tax Administration in Russia: The Case of the Banking Sector

The 'informal' sector of an economy is generally seen as a private sphere, where agents seek to escape the reach of the state and, in particular, the tax organs. However, given the weakness of the Russian state and the enormous scale of informal economic activity, the fiscal authorities try to cope, at least in part, by adopting informal strategies of their own. This paper aims to deepen our understanding of how this informal fiscal system actually works. While the analysis here focuses on the banking system, its implications for tax and accounting reform extend far beyond the banking sector.     

Trade Taxes and Welfare: The Case of Export Incentives in South-East Asian Countries

It is now widely recognised that the distortions common in many developing countries lead to a bias against exporting. In consequence many governments have begun to provide export incentives aimed at compensating for this bias. This article begins by examining the range of such incentives offered in South-East Asian countires. It then goes on to use the standard theory of the second-best to develop a simple framework within which these policies can be assessed. The difficulties encountered in constructing a system of export incentives that will not introduce distortions of their own are highlighted. The constraints imposed by GATT obligations are also noted.     

Distribution, Equity and Domestic Water Charging Regimes: The Case of Scotland

This paper argues that charging for a merit good, such as water, raises important distributional concerns. More direct charging is likely to demonstrate a pronounced impact on poorer sections of society. Arguably, this carries potentially adverse allocative efficiency effects. Following Hochman and Rodgers' (1969) thesis that wealthier individuals may benefit from the redistribution of income to the poor; the regressive pricing of merit goods will engender external costs. We argue that this is likely in the context of domestic water provision in Scotland. On this basis we evaluate the comparative regressiveness of five alternative charging arrangements. Somewhat counter-intuitively, our simulation results reveal that a flat rate licence fee may be marginally the least regressive of the five arrangements.     

Does Precommitment Raise Growth? The Dynamics of Growth and Fiscal Policy

We develop an endogenous growth model driven by externalities from both private and public capital. The government levies distortionary taxation to finance a publicly provided consumption good and public infrastructure. Firms face adjustment costs. We compare the optimal and time-consistent policies in a linear-quadratic approximation of the model. Although the time-consistent equilibrium is sub-optimal in terms of ex-ante intertemporal welfare, it yields higher long-run growth and welfare, through an accumulation of assets by the state and a cut in government consumption.     

对出口与内需拉动就业效应的比较分析——以广东省就业为例

文章利用广东省1981年～2004年的年度数据,对广东省出口、既有生产能力与国内需求对广东省就业规模的影响进行了协整分析,并根据格兰杰定理建立了四者之间的误差修正模型。实证分析结果表明:无论是短期还是长期内广东省出口、国内需求以及广东省既有的生产能力与广东省的就业规模之间均呈现显著的正向相关关系,并对出口的就业效应作了进一步深入的分析。模型同时表明:广东省就业的国内需求弹性大于就业的出口弹性,β系数表明内需对广东省就业的拉动大于出口对广东省就业的拉动,因此我们不能夸大出口贸易对就业的影响。     

Pricing and Access under National Competition Policy: The Case of the Natural Gas Pipeline Sector

This paper reviews the development of open access and deregulation of trunk pipeline natural gas transportation in Australia and the United States. It investigates Australian policy developments in the setting of reference tariffs for firm service, but argues that the institutional arrangements for granting third party access, and the pricing of that access on a spot or interruptible basis, are at least as important as tariffs for firm service. The paper concludes that, in the absence of an established pipeline network, pipelines may have little incentive to price their excess capacity efficiently. In this case, attempts to promote an efficient allocative outcome through privatisation and open access in Australia are unlikely to be as successful as they have been in North America.     

Regional Exports and Economic Growth: The Case of Spanish Regions

Different variables have been considered growth enhancing. Traditionally, physical capital, human capital, and public capital have been considered. While the first two variables have been considered positive factors, the latter shows an ambiguous effect. The literature has also considered the role of exports in the economic growth process, introducing several arguments that test the hypothesis that exports are growth enhancing. One argument to be considered is that higher exports can increase total factor productivity due to returns to scale and that exports are an effective means to introduce advanced technology. To test this argument, an empirical analysis considered three possibilities, an export model, a demand model, and a mixed model that combined both. This empirical analysis was carried out for the various Spanish regions.     

Economic Growth and International Trade: The Case of Hong Kong

This paper estimates the major factors of growth of Hong Kong using a fairly new approach, which allows the direct inclusion of the factors of growth in the growth equation to be estimated. The growth factors that are found to be important for Hong Kong are physical capital accumulation, (negative) growth of unskilled workers, education, technology spillover (from foreign countries) through retained import of capital goods and inward direct investment, and learning‐by‐doing through import and domestic manufacturing production. The results strongly suggest that other than primary factor accumulation, education, trade, and foreign direct investment have contributed a lot to the growth of the economy.