扩张政策下的货币因素分析——基于中国长期超额货币供给视角分析

本文是笔者看到自2008年10月以来中央采取积极财政政策和适当宽松的货币政策来应对当前严峻的经济形式,对当前形势下采取扩张措施可能对未来物价带来的影响进行思考。在研究过程中,应用传统的费雪货币供应方程对我国改革开放以来的货币供给进行实证分析,得出中国在过去30年来一直存在超额货币供给状况,即在中国,从货币角度考虑一直存在通货膨涨的陷阱。另外,通过对货币超额供给可能带来的问题分析,联系当前国内所采取的以确保未来经济较高速度平稳增长的扩张财政政策和货币政策组合,得出中国国内市场在未来短期内可能产生通货膨胀的结论,同时也说明为消除金融风暴影响、确保经济增长采取扩张性措施时要谨防通货膨胀。在政策制定过程中,应该考虑具体国情,实现以刺激需求为主的政策措施与经济建设目标的平衡。     

基于预防性储蓄理论的超额货币发行实证研究

为了研究我国高储蓄率高货币化低消费率并存的现象,本文选取2000年-2011年的季度数据,使用GMM方法测算我国预防性储蓄动机参数,并基于Dynan预防性储蓄模型验证我国居民预防性储蓄动机的存在性.在验证预防性储蓄动机存在的基础上,从货币理论和实证分析两个角度验证了超额货币现象与预防性储蓄之间的关系.对于我国居民较强的预防性储蓄动机,以及居民预防性储蓄动机与我国超额货币发行之间较强的关系,为了减小其负面效应,相关制度需要做出改变.     

内生货币和“中国之谜”:基于存量-流量结构的新解说

外生货币供给是主流理论分析的一个缺陷。本文考察了内生货币理论的起源、发展、争论和症结,提出一个基于宏观存量-流量结构的资产抵押和收入预期一致的内生货币假说,重新解释了货币数量论和收入流通速度。由此对M2/GDP的"中国之谜"提出新的解释:水平高源于高投资、高负债、低工资份额和低资本回报的增长模式;而持续上升源于增长数量和增长质量的不一致,在缺乏企业破产机制和资产价值重估的情况下,形成经济增长越快、居民储蓄越多而不良信贷越高的悖论,固定汇率制下的外汇占款大幅攀升恰好弥补了企业的现金流不足,并进一步造成M2/GDP畸高。     

资本流入、货币内生增长与物价稳定

20 0 2年以来 ,我国货币供应量增长迅猛 ,其与央行制订的货币供应增长目标偏离较大。货币供应量的快速增长 ,对于金融和经济的运行 ,可能带来若干潜在的不稳定因素。其一 ,如果不能采取有效的冲销政策 ,则货币供应量的迅速增加 ,将引致物价迅速上涨 ,产生通货膨胀。其二 ,有可能影响汇率稳定。对此 ,必须引起高度关注。如何建立有效机制 ,发掘安全且大规模的金融资产 ,用以冲销外汇占款的增加 ,已经成为我国货币政策需要重点解决的重大问题之一。     

国内信贷、外汇储备与货币供给关系的研究——中国货币供给内生性的逻辑与实证

文章建立了国内信贷、外汇储备与货币供给之间关系的逻辑模型,以此讨论近年来中国货币供给的内生性。同时,利用中国2000年至2006年的月度数据建立了国内信贷、外汇储备与货币供给的误差修正模型,并对三变量进行了Granger因果关系的检验。结果表明:国内信贷、外汇储备与货币供给之间存在长期的稳定关系,国内信贷、外汇储备与货币供给之间存在双向的Granger因果关系。在实证分析的基础上,提出了相应的政策建议。     

超额货币、资产价格与通货膨胀——基于1991～2010年中国宏观经济数据的检验

货币主义认为,通货膨胀在任何时空条件下都是一种货币现象,超额发行的货币最终都要传导到价格上来。1998年,广义货币发行量(M2)期末余额104498.5亿元,国内生产总值84402.28亿元,2010年M2期末余额725851.79亿元,GDP397983.15亿元,13年间货币发行量增长了694.6%,而GDP只增长了471.5%。同一时期,CPI从430.38上升到了574.07,增长133.39%。众     

基于合同匹配理论的中国农村信贷市场设计

由于农村信贷市场的每笔贷款额度都比较小,银行对借款人的监督成本相对很大,因而难以依靠银行来监督借款人,很容易产生道德风险。结合合同匹配理论的相关结论对中国农村信贷市场做了试探性的设计,设想建立一个集中的信贷匹配结算中心,并提出了一种激励相容的报价支付机制。     

信用交易与通货膨胀的福利损失——基于货币搜寻理论的视角

不同于货币效用模型(MIU)和现金约束模型(CIA)引入货币的特定方式,货币搜寻模型具有货币更深刻的微观基础。本文拓展了FaigLi(2009)货币搜寻理论新古典一般均衡的框架,分析了信用交易对通货膨胀福利损失的影响。本文发现:一方面,信用交易使购买者的需求不受当期持有货币数量的约束,从而减少了通货膨胀带来的福利损失;另一方面,信用交易通过影响购买者的货币需求增加了福利损失。因此,信用交易对通货膨胀福利成本总的影响取决于信用交易的正效应和负效应哪种效应占优。校准模型后数值模拟结果显示,随着信用交易规模的增加,通货膨胀的福利损失是逐渐减小的。由本文的结论可知,推动我国金融市场不断发展,扩大信用交易的规模对提高国民的福利具有重要作用。     

基于货币供给视角下的物价水平研究

货币供给与物价水平是否存在因果关系,存在怎样的因果关系,理论界存在着较大的分歧.本文以我国1980～2008年数据为基础,由货币供给增长率与物价上涨率两者间的折线图及其两者间的交叉相关图分析,可知货币供应量M2增长率与物价上涨率的波动基本一致,而且两者之差的变化情况也比较稳定;运用Granger因果检验法来定量地描述它们之间的关系,得到货币供给的增加是引起物价上涨的原因,反之却不成立.基于上述结论运用协整理论和误差修正模型定量地研究这两者之间的长期均衡关系和短期修正影响力.另外,通过建立VAR(2)模型并利用脉冲响应函数分析当本期给货币供给增长率一个正的冲击后,货币供给增长率变化会在5期后对物价上涨率变化的影响达到稳定.     

Endogenous Money: A Note on Some Post-Keynesian Controversies

Keynes's theory of liquidity preference sought to illuminate the essential properties of money under the conditions of uncertainty that often lead to involuntary unemployment. Subsequent Post-Keynesian literature built upon this concept to show that a deregulated financial system could induce phases of endemic financial instability and crises. Keynes's finance motive provides an important starting point in Post-Keynesian theories of endogenous money. This article examines the controversies between two major contending analytical approaches, the Horizontalist and Structuralist schools.     

累进性劳动所得税、失业波动与内生稳定器——一个动态新凯恩斯主义的视角

将累进性劳动所得税引入NKMP—DSGE模型中考察失业波动与累进性税收的宏观效应。贝叶斯脉冲响应函数表明,外生冲击对于就业与失业具有不同的冲击效应,因而忽略失业可能引起结论的偏误;失业的贝叶斯冲击分解结果表明,货币政策冲击是推动我国失业波动最重要的力量,并且我国劳动力市场存在显在的“失业回滞”。进一步,通过模型比较发现,累进性劳动所得税具有内生稳定器的作用。在失业问题日益严峻的背景下,采用对劳动力市场做出反应的货币政策机制以降低失业,并使用内生稳定器缓和经济波动,将可能实现降低失业与缓和经济波动的双重效果。     

Endogenous Money: An Analytical Approach

The paper proposes a constructive interpretation of the Post Keynesian debate between horizontalists and structuralists. Both approaches defend an endogenous money theory, but they discriminate between different analyses of the credit market and the reserve market. A more general model encompassing both approaches is presented here and some of its implications are discussed.     

Post Keynesian Approaches to Endogenous Money: A time framework explanation

Over the last two decades, work on the Post Keynesian theory of endogenous money has been flourishing, and has prompted a rethinking of the complex nature of money in modern economies. At the heart of the debate between what have now been labelled the accommodationist (or horizontalist) approach and the structuralist approach to endogenous money are the issues of the slope of the supply curves of reserves and of credit money, respectively. Using the distinction between a single period analysis and a continuation analysis, similarities and differences between those approaches are explained, and the suggestion is then made for retaining and re-interpreting them into a more general theory.     

Endogenous Money Supply and the Business Cycle

This paper documents changes in the cyclical behavior of nominal data series that appear after 1979:Q3 when the Federal Reserve implemented a policy to lower the inflation rate. Such changes were not apparent in real variables. A business cycle model with impulses to technology and a role for money is used to show how alternative money supply rules are expected to affect observed business cycle facts. In this model, changes in the money supply rules have almost no effect on the cyclical behavior of real variables, yet have a significant impact on the cyclical nature of nominal variables.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: E32, E42, E50.     

Endogenous Money,Fiscal Policy,Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate Regime: Correction

This note suggests two corrections that might usefully be made to the analysis in an earlier article with the same title. The corrections have no direct bearing on the original argument (which had to do with disputes about modern money theory, or MMT) but do seem important for the future development of an alternative monetary theory.     

Monetary Disequilibrium, Endogenous Money, Stability and the Determinacy of Inflation

This paper examines the stability of the disequilibrium money model, with endogenous money and transitory interest rate control by the Central Bank. In the tradition of the post-Keynesian literature, the money supply is determined by bank lending and disequilibrium between money demand and supply determines the business cycle. The rate of interest is assumed to react to an inflation target and inflation responds to the business cycle. The paper examines the stability of the model under three inflation response systems: the accelerationist model, adaptive expectations and rational expectations.
(J.E.L.: E3, E4, E5).     

A Matching Model with Bounded Holdings of Indivisible Money

Recent versions of pairwise random matching models of money with divisible and perishable goods are amended to allow individuals to hold more than one unit of an indivisible asset. The asset resembles a fiat asset, except that nominal holdings of it yield a small amount of utility. There is a general upper bound on the number of units of the asset that individuals can hold. A steady state with trade is shown to exist. The model is applied to study numerically the effect on welfare of the degree to which the asset is divisible.     

Contract-Intensive Money: Contract Enforcement, Property Rights, and Economic Performance

We introduce a new, easily accessed and objective measure of the enforceability of contracts and the security of property rights. This measure, called contract-intensive money or CIM, is based on citizens decisions regarding the form in which they choose to hold their financial assets. Country case studies show that CIM varies over time in response to political events in ways predicted by our arguments. We also show that CIM is positively related to investment and growth rates, and to the relative size of contract-dependent sectors of the economy.