贸易成本、要素流动与区域经济差异

本世纪以来,中国交通基础设施不断优化、物流业的迅猛发展以及国内市场化的不断加深对中国区域间要素流动、产业转移及区域经济差异的影响,成为具有重要理论与现实意义的问题。本文通过构建包含贸易成本的两地区-两部门新经济地理模型来研究这一问题,并在合理的参数条件下进行数值模拟。研究发现贸易成本的降低阻碍了劳动力、资本与可贸易产业从发达地区向欠发达地区的流动和转移,加大了地区间经济差异,从而为"迁移谜题"提供了新的解释角度。根据理论研究的结果,本文提出相关的政策建议。     

市场一体化、非对称性贸易成本与制造业集聚*

国内市场一体化将会对中国制造业的空间分布造成何种影响？本文通过构建统一的理论分析框架验证了国内市场一体化影响制造业集聚的两种机制：其一是贸易成本总体水平的调节效应,其二是贸易成本非对称性的直接效应,而调节效应的方向则取决于模型理论范式选择。此外,本文基于中国区域间投入产出数据,系统地测算了中国地区间的非对称双边贸易成本,并基于测算结果进行回归分析。实证结果表明,在中国制造业发展初期,市场结构总体符合IRS MC范式设定,此时贸易成本的调节效应倾向于促进制造业在东部沿海区域集聚。伴随着制造业生产技术的成熟,制造业市场结构开始呈现CRS PC范式特征,此时市场一体化对制造业集聚的调节效应不再显著。     

经济地理视野下的区域经济聚集与一体化

全面深化改革必须建设统一开放、竞争有序的市场体系,着力清除市场壁垒,使商品和要素自由流动,提高资源配置效率和公平性是中共十八届三中全会的核心理念。区域经济一体化可以使地理相邻地区外化为一个发展整体,以取得较明显的规模经济和降低过高拥挤成本的"双赢"。目前江苏产业的空间发展正处于倒U形曲线的后半段,区域经济一体化将有利于实现苏南、苏中、苏北的协调发展与共同发展。该文以经济地理的研究为视角,探讨了江苏在推进区域经济一体化中如何实现空间效率与公平的双赢。     

户籍门槛、流动性差异与地区收入差距

按学历、技能设置的落户条件在一定程度上强化了不同人力资本禀赋劳动力的流动性差异,这种流动性差异深刻的影响着人力资本的区域间分布和现代部门产业的空间格局,从而为解释地区收入差距的形成与扩大提供了新的视角。本文将户籍门槛变量引入新经济地理模型,并利用数值模拟技术分析在不同水平的户籍门槛、贸易成本、人力资本份额下,不同技能劳动力的空间选择及地区收入差距变动。研究结果表明,需求与供给效应的彼此强化使得低技能劳动力与高技能劳动力在同一区域聚集,但因技能而设置的户籍门槛作为分散力阻碍了低技能劳动力的空间聚集过程。伴随区域一体化推进,贸易成本不断降低,高技能劳动力将在发达地区高度集聚,而如果户籍门槛保持不变,低技能劳动力将均匀地分布在两个区域。高技能劳动力的地理集中是导致地区收入差距持续扩大的主要原因,降低贸易成本能够有效缩小地区收入差距,而降低户籍门槛或提高人力资本份额均使地区差距变得更大。本文进一步回顾了改革开放以来中国出现的劳动力回流现象、人力资本的迁移趋势、以及改革开放以来地区收入差距的收敛和发散趋势,发现经验数据与理论命题的结论基本相符。     

对外开放与中国制造业集聚关系研究——基于对外贸易视角

对外开放中,对外贸易是其主要内容,与一国或地区内部制造业区域集聚之间关系的研究属于新经济地理学框架下研究的新论题,受到国内外学者们的广泛关注和研究.对外开放是塑造国内产业地理的重要力量,对外贸易作为对外开放中的重要力量,产业自身的特征也与其地理分布密切相关.伴随经济全球化深入发展,中国经济转型逐步引入了市场竞争和全球化力量,对外贸易已逐渐成为国家间经济联系的重要通道,无论是在国别尺度还是在小范围地域尺度,生产地理的不均衡现象普遍存在.制造业作为中国对外贸易的主要力量,作为“松脚型”产业,在市场、政府和全球化力量下不断实现空间重组,对外贸易能促进制造业产业的地理集中度,也是造成区域发展差距的重要原因.本文较详细分析和探讨了对外开放中对外贸易与中国制造业关系机理,研究了两者间彼此机制,在此基础上,提出了如何在后危机时代下更好地推进中国制造业发展及集聚的政策.     

狭义自由贸易区、国际直接投资与产业区位转移——基于FC模型的中国自由贸易试验区构建策略研究

构建一个带有区域化特征的两国三区域自由资本模型,采用数值模拟的方法,分析狭义自由贸易区的国内、国外的直接投资与产业区位转移效应;然后,放松模型在经济规模和贸易成本上的对称性假设,探讨中国的自由贸易试验区构建策略。研究发现:由于本地市场效应,上海自贸区建立会引发产业从国内外未实行自由贸易区的地区向上海自贸区转移,其程度取决于各区域的经济规模和贸易自由度;上海自贸区改革,短期内改革力度是关键,长期中风险控制是重点;在多个地区设立自贸区会引起区域间的福利竞争;在最早提交自贸区设立申请的城市中,依据不同情况,深圳、天津为相应的最佳选择。     

对外开放、贸易成本与中国制造业聚集

贸易成本的变化是影响制造业空间聚集的重要因素;区域对外贸易成本的差异,促进了国内制造业向沿海地区聚集;区域市场的分割削弱了“国内市场效应”,致使制造业聚集呈现低水平特征。提高内地开放程度、缩小地区间外贸成本差距和促进国内市场一体化、降低区际贸易成本是实现区域协调发展的有效途径。     

中国产业内贸易决定因素的实证研究——基于制造业行业面板数据

在贸易自由化的进程中,产业内贸易发展的经济调整成本相对较小.然而,中国的产业内贸易额并没有与其贸易总额保持同步增长,对中国产业内贸易的决定因素的研究显得格外必要.本文在区分产业内贸易类型的前提下,利用制造业面板数据,对中国产业内贸易的决定因素进行了实证研究.结果表明,产品多样化、研究与开发费用、外资等与中国的垂直型产业内贸易有正相关关系,与水平型产业内贸易负相关;而规模经济和市场结构与两种类型的产业内贸易都呈正相关.     

贸易开放对中国区域增长的空间效应研究:1987-2009

本文在新增长理论和空间经济学框架下,构建贸易开放与区域增长的空间面板数据模型,运用空间计量方法分析1987—2009年间中国省际贸易开放对经济增长的空间效应。研究发现,中国省域经济和产业经济层面的增长均存在空间相关性;控制空间相关性后,贸易开放对省域经济的增长效应为正,伴有空间收敛与发散双向效应,并因地区发展水平、基础设施和人力资本差异而存在空间异质性;产业层面的空间效应体现了产业特征,与整体经济并不完全相同。     

集聚与扩散:异质性劳动力和多样化贸易成本的空间经济效应

文章将异质性劳动力及地区内和地区间的多样化贸易成本同时引入空间经济模型,建立了一般均衡模型。分析结果表明,低成本约束的人力资本比高成本约束的普通劳动力流动更容易打破空间经济集聚和扩散的对称均衡,促使产业空间结构稳定地向人力资本丰富的地区集聚。文章还从福利最优化的角度分析了政府对空间经济结构的规划选择,结论显示降低普通劳动力在地区间流动的成本有利于形成分散均衡的经济格局,实现社会公平。     

Countries, regions and trade: On the welfare impacts of economic integration

We study the impact of falling international trade costs and falling national transport costs on the economic geography of countries involved in an integration process. Each country is formed by two regions between which labor is mobile, whereas there is no international mobility. Goods can be traded both nationally and internationally at positive, but different, costs. A decrease in trade costs and/or in transport costs has a direct impact on prices and wages, which allows us to account for the impact of changes in these parameters on the economic geography and welfare of each country. We show that, as trade barriers fall, the benefits of integration come after its costs. We also show that national transport policies are of the beggar-thy-neighbor type. On both counts, policy coordination is required in the process of economic integration.     

The core periphery model with asymmetric inter-regional and intra-regional trade costs

We generalize the model of Krugman (J Polit Econ 99(3):483–499, 1991) to allow for asymmetric trade costs between regions and for (asymmetric) trade costs that are internal to the regions. We find that industrial activity, in a region, is enhanced by higher costs of importing and lower costs of exporting (more precisely, by a higher ratio between the two trade costs). This suggests that countries may impose tariffs on imported goods and seek to remove the import tariffs in other countries (unilateral protectionism) in order to foster industrial activity. Industrial activity is also promoted by lower domestic internal trade costs and higher foreign internal trade costs (more precisely, by a lower ratio between the two trade costs).     

Resisting economic integration when industry location is uncertain

This paper analyses the political determination of transportation costs in a new economic geography model. In a benchmark case with certainty about where agglomeration takes place, a majority of voters favour economic integration and the resulting equilibrium is an industrialised core and a de-industrialised periphery. Allowing for uncertainty, a high level of trade costs may win the election and maintain the initial distribution of industry. The reason is that a coalition of risk-averse immobile factors of production votes for the status quo due to uncertainty about which region will attract industry if economic integration is pursued. Finally, the standard view that agglomeration is unambiguously beneficial to residents in the industrial centre is challenged by introducing costs of undertaking economic integration.     

The importance of government commitment in attracting firms: A dynamic analysis of tax competition in an agglomeration economy

Agglomeration tendencies of industrial firms significantly affect the nature of tax competition. This paper analyzes tax competition between two countries over an infinite time horizon in an economy with trade costs and internationally mobile industrial firms. Most of the previous studies on tax competition in the ‘new economic geography’ framework employ static models. In this study, two governments dynamically compete with each other to attract firms through their choices of taxes and subsidies. It is shown that the commitment of the governments to their policies is crucial in determining the distribution of firms in the long run. Specifically, if governments find each others׳ tax policies credible, then one country will attract all the firms when trade costs are low enough to make agglomeration forces dominant. If policies are not credible, both countries may attract an equal share of firms even when trade costs are low, as the lack of commitment by governments acts as a dispersion force.     

从两岸合作层面看我国零售业转型新机遇

在全球贸易整合遭遇挫败,区域经贸整合兴起之际,两岸经贸关系正常化对台湾迈向东亚区域整合有相当正面影响,对中国大陆即将发布的第十二个五年规划之实行亦极有助益。后ECFA时代,两岸的合作形式将从传统的加工贸易及FDI逐步深化为以。新型产业开发”和服务业贸易为核心的商业合作形式。通过对台湾零售业运营模武的发展,我们可以看到连锁便利业的经营特色和巨大的市场占有率。结合大陆与台湾在语育、文化、消费习惯上的相似程度,我们可以尝试探寻该项目对大陆的居民消费形态的影响,是否能够有效地拉动内需。本研究以个案的方式深入探讨台湾零售业的经营模式,并提出对大陆零售业发展改革方向及两岸合作方式的建议。     

Market integration and tariff cooperation between asymmetric countries

This study explores the relationship between market integration—specifically a reduction in trade costs—and the sustainability of tariff cooperation, using a repeated game approach. We explore the property of noncooperative and cooperative tariffs about trade costs and the size of the domestic industry. We find that market integration does not induce the tariff rates to be lowered bilaterally in the noncooperative policy regime. By contrast, the cooperative regime brings about a bilateral tariff reduction when the market becomes integrated. Furthermore, by using the repeated game approach, we demonstrate that market integration facilitates cooperation between asymmetric countries.     

Comparative Advantage and the Location of Production

The paper returns to a familiar topic in international trade, comparative advantage, introducing it into Krugman's classic, core–periphery model of economic geography. This extra force of dispersion radically changes the stability properties of the model. Instead of the familiar result that trade liberalization leads to increased industrial concentration, lowering trade costs leads initially to increased concentration and then to dispersion of production. When a pattern of comparative advantage exists, integration may lead to international specialization of production. This may be good news for peripheral countries, which may be able to retain industry despite the attraction of the core.     

论跨边界次区域物流运输一体化的构建

以世界经济一体化为背景,通过分析我国沿边省区边境贸易中物流成本结构,并对比分析一体化前后的物流总成本,提出跨边界次区域物流运输一体化的构建思路：首先,确定物流运输枢纽城市;其次,规划建设区域边境口岸体系;第三,规划建设区域边贸运输通道。并以新疆—哈萨克斯坦物流运输一体化构建为例进行实证。最终形成＂核心枢纽—枢纽—边境口岸＂共同构成的物流运输网络,降低边境贸易中的物流运输成本及总成本,促进中国传统边境贸易向现代商贸、现代物流的发展升级,并带动和辐射边疆各省区经济全面、快速发展,尽快缩小与沿海地区的差距,且有利于中国的国家安全、边疆稳定、民族团结。     

Neoclassical Growth, Manufacturing Agglomeration, and Terms of Trade

This study reverses the prediction of geography and growth models that trade integration may cause income divergence. Moreover, a new dynamic welfare gain of trade openness is identified. These results are obtained from embedding a new economic geography model into a neoclassical growth model. Starting from symmetric countries, a country that accumulates more capital than the other increases its home market size, improves its terms of trade, and lowers its relative consumption price index, because trade costs drive a wedge in between relative producer and consumption price indices. Both effects in turn tend to increase its marginal revenue product of capital relative to the other country (divergence forces), while factor substitution diminishes its marginal revenue product of capital (convergence force). Reducing trade costs decreases the wedge and weakens the divergence forces, while the convergence force is unaffected. Hence, divergence is more likely with higher rather than lower trade costs.