"裁厘改统"与民国时期市场整合-基于上海、芜湖、天津三地粮价的探讨

国民政府于1931年废除厘金、改办统税,史称"裁厘改统".经济史学者通常认为这一政策促进了商品流通,有利于现代经济发展,但从基本经济理论与实证数据出发的讨论仍然缺乏.本文以厘金的发展历史为背景,利用民国时期的粮价数据,对厘金废除前后的市场整合程度进行了时间与空间上的对比.研究发现,厘金制度阻碍套利实现,造成市场分割,从实证数据上看,厘金废除后,远距离粮食市场间的整合程度得到了显著提升."裁厘改统"促进了民国时期的市场整合,从而对20世纪30年代的经济发展起到了积极作用.The?Nanking?Nationalist?Government?abolished?Likin?in?1931.?Economic?historians?generally?believe?that?this?promoted?the?circulation?of?commodities?and?the?development?of?modern?economy,?but?few?studies?are?from?the?perspective?of?basic?economic?theories?and?based?on?empirical?data.?Using?the?grain?prices?in?the?1920s?and?1930s,?this?paper?contrasts?market?integration?of?three?regions?before?and?after?the?abolition?of?I.ikin.?I?find?that?Likin?hindered?the?realization?of?arbitrage?and?led?to?market?segmentation.?Empirical?analysis?shows?that?long-distance?grain?markets?were?significantly?more?integrated?after?the?abolition?of?Likin.?Abolishing?Likin?improved?the?performance?of?the?market,?thus?having?positive?effects?on?economic?development?in?the?1930s.     

百年来厘金研究述评

晚清以来,厘金收入在国家财政中占有重要地位.百年来学术界围绕着厘金问题,主要就厘金产生的原因、厘金创办时间、厘金制度的性质、弊端及影响、厘金与地方社会、厘金与子口税及近代财政等关系、裁厘加税、厘金的个案研究等方面进行了深入的探讨,取得了较为丰厚的研究成果.但是,相对于其他经济史研究领域所取得的成就,学术界对厘金制度的研究,无论从广度抑或深度而言,都有进一步发展的空间.     

晚清加税裁厘交涉案初探

清朝政府与列强进行的有关加税裁厘一案的谈判,从十九世纪六十年代末到清朝灭亡,持续近半个世纪,成为中外商务关系中的一大难题。剖析加税裁厘一案产生的历史背景、交涉过程及其未能付诸实现的原因,可以从一个侧面看出中国近代社会民族矛盾与阶级矛盾的特点。 一 加税裁厘一案的交涉,是鸦片战争以来中国民族资本主义、清朝中央政府和地方督抚以及列强之间在海关税、子口税和厘金问题上长期矛盾冲突的产物。     

数字经济、市场整合与企业创新绩效

将数字经济、市场整合与企业创新绩效纳入同一分析框架,利用2013-2018年沪深A股高新技术产业上市公司的面板数据,实证检验了数字经济和市场整合对企业创新绩效的影响机制及路径.研究结果表明:数字经济和市场整合都有利于促进企业创新绩效的提升,并且数字经济对市场整合的创新激励效应有正向的调节作用,在一系列稳健性检验后这一结论仍然成立.进一步机制分析结果表明:市场整合主要通过促进创新要素流动来影响企业创新绩效,对技术多元化的影响不显著,而数字经济则主要通过技术多元化渠道来影响企业创新绩效.此外,企业特征差异并未改变数字经济和市场整合的创新效应,但数字经济和市场整合对非国有企业和成熟期企业的边际效应更强.     

同治初年的关厘之争——以江南四榷关为例

镇压太平天国期间兴起的厘金到了攻克南京之后面临着合法性危机,而捉襟见肘的财政困境却迫使清政府将这项制度继续推行下去。厘金的合法性得到了进一步的承认,甚至比榷税这样的正式税收更为重要。其标志就是在江南的一些地区停征榷税,开设厘局。本文探讨关厘之争的过程并试图分析厘局得以扩张的原因:虽然历史上厘金的恶名更为昭著,厘金相比于榷税是一种更为合理的商税。     

中国股票市场对实体经济影响的实证研究

股票市场对中国经济发展的影响日益突出,研究采用我国股票市场和实体经济发展水平的相关季度数据,应用基于误差修正模型的长短期Granger因果关系检验方法对股票市场与实体经济之间的关系进行了实证研究。实证研究的结果表明,在长期上,作为股票市场发展基础的实体经济发展水平将极大促进股票这种虚拟经济的健康发展,股票市场的发展反过来也能够有效地带动整个经济的发展;而在短期上,股票市场在一定程度上体现了经济发展的"晴雨表"功能,但由于股票市场作为一种虚拟经济的代表仍然存在着不断独立化发展的趋势以及资本的短期逐利性特征,它的波动并未受到经济波动冲击的显著影响。     

经济增长、农村教育投资与农民收入关系的实证分析

文章从实证的角度研究经济发展,农村教育投资与农民收入增长之间的关系,通过对1978-2002年的相关数据进行分析得到,农村教育投资、国民生产总值的提高与农民收入增长具有显著的正相关关系,实证结果表明,解决"三农"问题之首的农民收入问题,可以从加大农村教育投资,优化产业结构,促进区域经济发展等方面入手.     

重庆市信贷市场发展与经济增长:1986—2010

以重庆市信贷市场发展与经济增长关系为研究对象,运用实证方法分析了两者在1986—2010年间的实际数据,得出:重庆市信贷市场发展总体上促进了经济增长,重庆市经济增长一定程度上促进信贷市场的发展,两者之间存在相互促进关系,并提出政策建议。     

能源消耗、碳排放与我国经济发展——基于静态和动态面板的实证分析

本文使用1998—2010年我国30个省级行政区域的数据,从空间视角采用静态和动态面板的方法分析了不同投入要素对经济发展的短期和长期影响,以研究我国及东中西部地区低碳经济与经济发展的关系。实证结果显示,粗放式的劳动投入在短期可以促进经济发展,长期却阻碍经济发展;固定资产投资的扩大、产业结构的优化有利于经济的短期和长期发展;CO2排放与经济发展呈现倒U型特征;污染税费对经济发展的促进在短期和长期都优于治污投资,政府干预与市场结合的治污投资有利于经济的长期发展;不同经济部门的能源消耗对经济发展的短期和长期的影响不同。     

数字经济发展降低了市场分割吗?——基于地区经济联系与行政垄断的双重视角

在当前实施双循环发展战略的背景下,建设全国统一大市场是促进国内大循环的必然要求。理论上,数字经济的蓬勃发展为打破中国地区间市场分割状态提供了可能。从地区经济联系和行政垄断的双重视角,采用多元化计量方法,基于2006—2018年省级面板数据实证检验了数字经济发展影响市场分割的效应与作用机制。研究发现：第一,数字经济发展有助于降低市场分割,这一结论在处理内生性问题以及采用动态面板GMM估计等稳健性检验后依然成立,数字经济发展降低市场分割的影响存在长期效应,且呈现边际效应递增的特征;第二,分区域来看,数字经济降低市场分割的效应在中西部地区明显强于东部地区,在南方地区略强于北方地区;第三,机制检验证实数字经济能够通过强化地区经济联系和弱化行政垄断进而降低市场分割。研究结论不仅有助于从理论上廓清数字经济与市场分割的关系,也从实践上为破除地区市场分割、推动区域市场整合提供了思路。     

The Transition of Thoughts on Grain Control in the Qing Dynasty:A Survey of the Great Debate on the Ever-Normal Granary and Grain Prices in 1748

The ever-normal granary system was an official granary management system in ancient China.Throughout its existence,the system functioned as a major means of adjusting the price of grain and provided disaster relief.Few studies on the system touches upon the relationship between grain price fluctuation and the development of the grain market,or the ever-normal granary system and its related economic school of thoughts.Starting with the development of the grain market and the relationship between the price of grain and grain reserves,and through a systematic review of the debate on the ever-normal granary system and grain prices among high-level officials of the Qing government in the 13th year of Emperor Qianlong’s reign(1748),this paper analyzes the historical process and reasons for the change in thoughts on the ever-normal granary system and discusses the historical path of how economic phenomenon gave rise to the clash of economic thoughts that influenced the evolution of this economic institution.     

The Robertson connection between the natural rates of interest and unemployment

The paper explores the connection between the natural rates of unemployment and interest first put forward in the literature by Dennis Robertson in the 1930s. This looks at monetary dynamics in the business cycle and assesses the Robertsonian contribution to developments in macroeconomics before and after Keynes's General Theory. Robertson showed how unanticipated price level changes affect supply and demand in the labour market, as well as the saving–investment process in the credit market. Robertson's approach to economic policy was that of getting the relations right between cyclical changes in prices, output and employment and their long-run equilibrium values over time.     

债券市场与经济发展的相关性分析——以我国银行间债券市场为例

债券市场是资本市场的重要组成部分，但目前我国资本市场发展阶段的特征表现为债券市场发展缓慢，为了扩大我国直接融资规模并完善多层次资本市场体系，需要大力发展债券市场。本文以我国债券市场的主体---银行间债券市场为例，分析了我国银行间债券市场的现状以及对国民经济发展的作用，并以1993-2012年我国国民生产总值、银行间债券市场债券发行额和股市筹资额共20年时间的时间序列数据为样本建立相关性模型，通过回归模型进一步实证研究了银行间债券市场与经济发展的相关性，发现银行间债券市场债券发行额与国民生产总值呈显著的正相关关系，表明银行间债券市场是经济发展的重要推动力，该市场规模的扩大有助于推动经济增长，从而说明了我国银行间债券市场创新的必要性。     

燃料乙醇“争粮”与“争地”问题的数理模型分析

燃料乙醇的发展是否会危及国家粮食安全是一个存在很大争议的问题。本文利用经典的数理经济模型和优化模型讨论了燃料乙醇发展引发"争粮"和"争地"的机理及其影响因素。本文认为:在短期内燃料乙醇的发展会促使粮食价格上涨进而引发"争粮"问题;从长期看,其发展有利于提高农业经济效益从而增加粮食供给量;政府只要掌控好汽油和粮食价格之间的关系,就能动态调控乙醇的发展规模,使其发展不危及国家粮食安全;在当前粮食短期内供大于求的情况下,可适当扩大粮食类燃料乙醇的生产规模。     

The apparel industry in the post‐Multifiber Arrangement environment: A review

The apparel industry contributes significantly to the economic development of many developing countries. Between 1974 and 2004, the Multifiber Arrangement (MFA) heavily regulated this industry. Since the total abolition of the MFA in 2005, competition in apparel trade has increased many folds and some developing countries, such as Bangladesh and Vietnam, have been successful while some others, such as Mexico and the Philippines, are struggling to meet this challenge. This study presents a historical evolution of the apparel industry before and after the introduction of MFA and analyzes the factors that enhance apparel export performance during the post‐MFA period. The analysis reveals that cheap labor, firm size, product quality, foreign ownership, availability of local input materials, new product development, preferential market access and working conditions are the major factors that help gaining competitiveness in apparel exports during the post‐MFA period. These observations provide new insights to the policy makers and business managers to formulate and implement appropriate policies in order to become competitive in apparel exports.     

江浙模式及民营经济在全国的发展

Along with the implementation of reform and open up policy in China, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, two provinces have got rapid economic development and greatly contributed to China’s market transition. Jiangsu, Zhejiang together with Shanghai, have shaped China’s economic heartland—the Yangtze River Delta Economic Region. Undoubtedly, the private sector is the driving force for the tremendous economic development in the Yangtze River Delta, particularly for facilitating institutional transition and economic development. Fortunately, this kind of economic development driven by the private sector was not only restricted in the Yangtze River Delta Region, but also across the country as it has been gradually extended nationwide. This paper is to look at the development of the private sector in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas and particularly trace its fantastic effects on nationwide economic development and market transition.      

Cognition,competition, and catallaxy in memory of Friedrich August von Hayek

The paper focuses on central elements of the scientific work of Friedrich A. v. Hayek since the 1930s. In a first part, his epistemological position and its implications for his understanding of the tasks of the social sciences are presented as he set them out particularly in theSensory Order (1952). Then, it is shown how his findings in economic theory as well as in the analysis of economic and societal systems are formed by these foundations. His emphasis on the subjectivity and the constitutional limitations of human knowledge is identified as a precondition for the outstanding analytical insights which he gained with regard to the functioning of a market order and the role of institutions in societal development. Furthermore, it is argued that Hayek's enduring campaign for freedom and against the socialist tendencies in welfare states was not simply a matter of personal conviction. It was also the result of his analysis in constitutional political economy which revealed to him that freedom as a normative basis of economic and societal institutions is the key to the explanation of European cultural evolution.     

How natural disasters affect the evolution of grain markets: evidence from 18th-century China

Market is the foundation of modern society. However, how did market evolve? Previous research has explored the impacts of spatial distance and transportation conditions on market integration. This article argues that natural disasters also played a crucial role in the evolution of market integration in China, particularly in the grain market. When natural disasters occur, governments’ relief measures and merchants’ arbitrage activities will gradually promote interconnectivity among local grain markets. In this article, China’s major grain monthly price data set from 1746 to 1795 and the Chinese historical disaster records dataset from 1696 to 1795 are used to analyse the impact of natural disasters on grain market integration. The empirical results show that natural disasters have a significantly positive effect on the integration of the grain market. The findings continue to hold after controlling the traffic conditions, grain varieties and lag effect. This study proposes a new perspective for understanding the evolution of the grain market.     

Brothers and Breadwinners: Legislating Living Wages in the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938

Attention to the implicit and explicit wage theories articulated by economic actors and embedded in public policy reveals the underlying social norms and values in specific historical and industrial contexts. The Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938 (FLSA), the first federal minimum wage legislation in the United States, legitimated and institutionalized the idea that living standards and workers' needs matter in setting wages. They matter not simply in generating labor supply, but as the basis for government intervention in market mechanisms. Rather than viewing market mechanisms and government regulations dichotomously, economic actors debating the FLSA treated both market mechanisms and socially defined living standards as legitimate elements of wage-setting. Wage regulations also, by necessity, must grapple with issues of identity, that is, which workers (especially as defined by class, gender, and race?–?ethnicity) are deserving of particular living standards. Debates over the language in the FLSA reveal the contested nature of masculinity during the period of economic crisis in the 1930s. Advocates responded by defining a multiplicity of living wages corresponding with different living standards, as well as a multiplicity of strategies for achieving them.     

中国农产品贸易现状及对策分析

中国是世界主要的农产品生产国与出口国,也是重要的农产品消费大国。农产品的生产、流通与消费水平决定了中国的国民经济发展水平。随着全球经济的发展,尤其是加入WTO後,中国的农产品贸易面临着前所未有的挑战。中国的农产品在国际市场上竞争力下降,出口屡屡碰壁,面临诸多制约因素。因此只有从政府、农民与企业等多方面进行调整才能促进中国农产品贸易更好地发展。