Optimal fiscal policy in the Uzawa-Lucas model with externalities

Summary. This paper devises a fiscal policy by means of which the first-best optimum equilibrium is attained as a market equilibrium in the Uzawa-Lucas model when average human capital has an external effect on productivity. The optimal policy requires the use of a subsidy to investment in human capital which can be financed by a tax on labor income. Lump-sum taxation is not required to balance the government budget either in the steady state or in the transitional phase. Physical capital income should not be taxed. Alternatively, the optimal growth path can be attained by means of a subsidy to human capital. Received: March 21, 2002; revised version: September 4, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" Financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology through PNICDYIT grant SEC2002-03663 is gratefully acknowledged.     

Optimal fiscal policy in the neoclassical growth model revisited

This paper studies optimal taxation in a version of the neoclassical growth model in which investment becomes productive within the period, thereby making the supply of capital elastic in the short run. Because taxing capital is distortionary in the short run, the government׳s ability/desire to raise revenues through capital income taxation in the initial period or when the economy is hit with a bad shock is greatly curtailed. Our timing assumption also leads to a tractable Ramsey problem without state-contingent debt, which can give rise to debt-financed budget deficits during recessions.     

Optimal fiscal policy in a model with inherited aspirations and habit formation

In this paper, we analyze optimal fiscal policies in an overlapping generations framework, where preferences exhibit aspirations in consumption and environmental quality as well as habit formation. We focus on the second best policies when the government needs to finance a given stream of public expenditures by using distortionary taxes. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions under which the competitive equilibrium is characterized by levels of capital and environmental quality that are too small and a level of labor supply that is too large. Our numerical simulations show that an optimal fiscal policy can be used as an effective stabilization device and that when consumption taxes are fixed, the planner implements maintenance investment and capital income subsidies while financing public spending through labor and fixed consumption taxes.     

Optimal fiscal policy in an endogenous growth model with public capital: a note

This note presents an investigation of the optimal tax rule in endogenous growth models with public capital. It is presumed that the government levies only an income tax in addition to financing public investment. Furthermore, a household’s saving is deducted from the income tax. We find the optimal tax rule whereby the social optimum is attainable. The manner by which a government imposes a tax on income and administers tax deductions is important for attaining a socially optimal situation.      

Optimal fiscal policy under monopolistic competition with firm heterogeneity

Government spending is a policy instrument used to sustain economic development and improve social welfare. Empirical observations, however, reveal a significant decrease in the government spending to GDP ratio for the United States. In addition, the United States has been observed to exhibit a rise in firm heterogeneity in productivity in recent decades. This paper shows that the optimal size of government expenditure will decrease as firm heterogeneity increases. We thus indicate that the rise in firm heterogeneity in productivity may serve as a plausible vehicle to explain the decline in the share of government spending in GDP for the United States.     

Optimal fiscal policy in a world liquidity trap

We construct a model of the international transmission of ‘liquidity trap’ shocks, and examine the case for international coordination of fiscal policy to respond to the liquidity trap. Integrated financial markets tend to propagate liquidity traps. In a global environment, fiscal policy may be effective in raising GDP when the economy is stuck in a liquidity trap, but it does so in a ‘beggar thy neighbor’ fashion; when one economy is in a liquidity trap, the cross country spillover effect of fiscal policy is negative. We examine the welfare optimizing policy response to a liquidity trap when countries coordinate on fiscal policy. Fiscal policy may be an effective tool in responding to a liquidity trap, although it is never optimal to use fiscal expansion sufficiently to fully eliminate a downturn. Moreover, there is little case for coordinated global fiscal expansion. For the most part, the country worst hit by a liquidity trap shock should use its own policies to respond, without much help from foreign policies.     

Optimal fiscal policy in a dynamic multicountry world with public services

The authors construct a dynamic one‐good multicountry growth model with productive government spending and perfect capital mobility to study fiscal interdependence among countries. In the case of a source‐based tax, it is found that there is no strategic interaction and that the equilibrium spending/tax mix coincides with the optimal one. In the case of a residence‐based tax system, however, there is strategic interaction across countries and, under noncooperation, countries tend to spend and tax over and above the optimal Pigouvian level.     

Optimal fiscal policy, uncertainty, and growth

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in a stochastic endogenous growth model. Due to externalities in human capital accumulation, the market allocation is inefficient, thereby justifying government intervention. The uncertainty stemming from technological disturbances affects the growth rate, which can be explained by precautionary motives of risk averse agents. Fiscal policy means consist of a consumption tax, investment subsidies, and bonds. We obtain counter-acting growth effects of investment subsidies, which are differentiated with respect to deterministic and stochastic capital income components. The policy implications from the deterministic model are substantially extended in the stochastic context. A general rule for a welfare maximizing policy is derived, which is represented by a continuum of alternative tax-transfer-schemes. We discuss three benchmark cases, which crucially differ with respect to their implications regarding the size of the government expenditure share.     

Optimal climate and fiscal policy in an OLG economy

This paper develops a climate–economy model to study the joint design of optimal climate and fiscal policies in economies with overlapping generations (OLGs). I demonstrate how capital taxation, if optimal, drives a wedge between the market costs of carbon (the net present value of marginal damages using the market interest rate) and the Pigouvian tax (the net present value of marginal damages using the consumption discount rate of successive OLGs). In contrast to deterministic infinitely lived representative agent models, at the optimum, the capital income tax is positive, the carbon price equals the market costs of carbon but it falls short of the Pigouvian tax when (i) preferences are not separable over consumption and leisure; and (ii) labor income taxes cannot be age-dependent. I also show that restrictions on climate change policy provide a novel rationale for positive capital income taxes.     

Optimal fiscal and monetary policy under sticky prices

This paper studies optimal fiscal and monetary policy under sticky product prices. The theoretical framework is a stochastic production economy. The government finances an exogenous stream of purchases by levying distortionary income taxes, printing money, and issuing nominal non-state-contingent bonds. The main findings of the paper are: First, for a miniscule degree of price stickiness (i.e., many times below available empirical estimates) the optimal volatility of inflation is near zero. Second, small deviations from full price flexibility induce near random walk behavior in government debt and tax rates. Finally, price stickiness induces deviation from the Friedman rule.     

Optimal time-consistent fiscal policy under endogenous growth with elastic labor supply

We explore the implications of incorporating an elastic labor supply in an endogenous growth economy when characterizing the time-consistent Markov policy. We consider two policy instruments: an income tax rate and the split of government spending between consumption and production services. The Markov-perfect policy implies a higher income tax rate and a larger proportion of government spending allocated to consumption than those chosen under a commitment constraint on the part of the government. As a consequence, economic growth is slightly lower under the Markov-perfect policy than under the Ramsey policy. Under the Markov and Ramsey optimal policies, a higher weight of leisure in households' preferences leads to a lower optimal income tax rate and a lower proportion of public resources devoted to consumption. We also show that the policy bias that would arise when imposing a Markov policy designed ignoring the presence of leisure in the utility function would lead to a significant welfare loss.     

Optimal fiscal and monetary policy with sticky wages and sticky prices

We determine the optimal degree of price inflation volatility when nominal wages are sticky and the government uses state-contingent inflation to finance government spending. We address this question in a well-understood Ramsey model of fiscal and monetary policy, in which the benevolent planner has access to labor income taxes, nominally risk-free debt, and money creation. Our main result is that sticky wages alone make price stability optimal in the face of shocks to the government budget, to a degree quantitatively similar as sticky prices alone. Key for our results is an equilibrium restriction between nominal price inflation and nominal wage inflation that holds trivially in a Ramsey model featuring only sticky prices. Our results thus show that when nominal wages are sticky, setting real wages as close as possible to their efficient path is a more important goal of optimal monetary policy than is financing innovations in the government budget via state-contingent inflation. A second important result is that the nominal interest rate can be used to indirectly tax the rents of monopolistic labor suppliers. Taken together, our results uncover features of Ramsey fiscal and monetary policy in the presence of a type of labor market imperfection that is widely-believed to be important.     

Optimal fiscal policy in sunspot‐driven oligopolistic economies

Economies with oligopolistic markets are prone to inefficient sunspot fluctuations triggered by autonomous changes in firms equilibrium conjectures. A well‐designed taxation‐subsidization scheme can eliminate these fluctuations by coordinating firms in each sector on a single equilibrium, left unaffected. The optimal taxation scheme must select the number of active firms that makes the best trade‐off (in terms of consumer welfare) between the markup and the scale inefficiency distortions. Implementing such stabilization policy leads to significant welfare gains, attributable to an “efficient stabilization effect,” typically ignored in usual computations of the welfare costs of fluctuations.     

Optimal simple rules for the conduct of monetary and fiscal policy

Stabilization policy involves joint monetary and fiscal rules. We develop a model enabling us to characterize systematic simple monetary and fiscal policy over the business cycle. We principally focus on the following question. What are the key properties of the joint simple rule governing the conduct of systematic stabilization policy? We find that conducting stabilization policy incorporates not only a set of monetary policy choices governed by the so-called ‘Taylor principle’ but also fiscal policy that gives considerable force to automatic stabilizers. Recent US and UK monetary and fiscal choices seem broadly consistent with this model. This result is found to be robust to a number of alternate modeling strategies.     

Optimality of the competitive equilibrium in the Uzawa-Lucas model with sector-specific externalities

Summary. In this paper, we show that the competitive equilibrium is optimal in the Uzawa-Lucas model with sector-specific externalities associated to human capital in the goods sector. Thus, these external effects do not provoke a market failure and do not provide a rationale for government intervention.Received: 1 November 2002, Revised: 3 June 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: E62, H21, O41.I wish to thank Sandra López Calvo and an anonymous referee for their valuable comments. Financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology and FEDER through Plan Nacional de Investigación Científica, Desarrollo e Innovación Tecnológica (I+D+I) Grant SEC2002-03663 is gratefully acknowledged.     

The effects of fiscal policy in a two-period model

The paper analyzes fiscal policy in a model which differs from the conventional analyses in the following ways: 1) It is based on the intertemporal maximizing behavior of individual agents. 2) The government is assumed to actively balance its budget the long run. 3) Government expenditure is on useful goods and services. The welfare effects of fiscal policy are also examined. The principal conclusions are that fiscal policy is effective in the short run but the effects on both output and welfare may be perverse; and, that with full employment in the long run, fiscal policy still has allocative effects and so influences welfare.     

State-dependent fiscal multipliers in NORA - A DSGE model for fiscal policy analysis in Norway

We develop a novel medium-scale DSGE model, called NORA, for fiscal policy analysis in Norway. NORA contains a sheltered and exposed sector allowing us to model wage bargaining between a labor union and the exposed sector, reflecting Scandinavian wage formation institutions. Wages are subject to a downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR). Inspired by many countries' fiscal policy responses to the Great Recession and the coronavirus pandemic, we investigate the model's ability to generate state-dependent fiscal multipliers. We find, that both the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and DNWR individually can account for higher fiscal multipliers during recessions. In joint presence, however, the existence of DNWR reduces the multiplier at the ZLB. Moreover, the DNWR significantly relaxes the paradox of toil at the ZLB. We show that the state-dependency is robust to alternative assumptions about the origin of the recession, the nature of the fiscal stimulus and its financing source.     

Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments under velocity and fiscal shocks

This paper, in the spirit of Poole [Poole, William, 1970. The Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Macro Model. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 84, 192–216.], studies how differently monetary and fiscal shocks influence the appropriate choice of the monetary policy regime. Velocity shocks are introduced by embedding a stochastic cash-in-advance constraint within the New Keynesian framework. In addition to optimal policy under discretion, three classic rules, interest rate targeting, monetary targeting, and the Taylor rule are ranked under both fiscal and velocity shocks. The non-stationarity of prices under the Taylor rule makes it inferior to the other rules under which prices are stationary. Monetary targeting, by stabilizing aggregate demand under fiscal shocks, outperforms interest rate targeting, while the latter provides a better insulation against velocity shocks. Monetary targeting (under fiscal shocks) and interest rate targeting (under velocity shocks) even outperform the optimal policy under discretion for sufficiently high intertemporal elasticities of consumption substitution.     

A tool for fiscal policy planning in a medium-term fiscal framework: The FMM-MTFF model

This paper describes the FMM-MTFF model, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model developed to support the implementation of a Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF) in emerging market and developing economies. The model exhibits the following features. First, fiscal policy is defined in terms of multi-year fiscal plans, instead of restricting attention to univariate, single-period fiscal shocks. Second, the model temporarily deactivates the fiscal rule to avoid forcing fiscal policy to be mechanically countercyclical and sustainable. Third, the model is calibrated to match a three-sector, stylized version of a country’s input-output table, and finally, the model uses a chain-weighted procedure to measure GDP, a method consistent with what national account compilers do. The model is calibrated to Colombian and Peruvian data to illustrate the use of the model as a tool to quantify the scale of the fiscal challenges, to provide consistent medium-term macro fiscal projections and to assess the quantitative implications of past reforms and alternative fiscal policy plans on the economies, i.e., the typical questions of interest to an MTFF.