Asymmetric Information Problems in Taiwan's Automobile Insurance Market: The Effect of Policy Design on Loss Characteristics

This article investigates asymmetric information problems for the automobile insurance market in Taiwan. Using panel data for the comprehensive automobile insurance coverage from 1995 to 1999, this article analyzes how types of coverage, deductible amounts, and experience ratings have affected the adverse selection and moral hazard problems in Taiwan's automobile insurance market. The empirical results provide partial evidence to demonstrate that the loss frequency and loss ratio were reduced by the addition of self-selection mechanisms in policies with different levels of coverage. In addition, the deductible amounts, experience ratings, and better control of underwriting and claims processing were shown possibly to have decreased potential losses from adverse selection and moral hazard problems.     

Testing for Asymmetric Information in the Automobile Insurance Market Under Rate Regulation

This article examines whether adverse selection or moral hazard could be induced by rate regulation, which prohibits insurance companies from considering some attributes of drivers in setting premiums. Using an individual data set from a heavily regulated automobile insurance market, we arrived at several conclusions, as follows. First, no evidence of adverse selection or moral hazard is found in general: conditional on all the variables observed by insurer, the null hypothesis of independence between risk and coverage is not rejected at reasonable levels of statistical significance. Second, this result is robust in the sense that it holds under several empirical procedures and different definitions of risk and coverage. Third, we find that unobserved variables do not induce adverse selection: the null hypothesis that consumers in risky regions are more likely to purchase insurance is tested against the alternative and rejected. Our study supports the view that the adverse selection phenomenon exists only to a very limited extent in this market.     

保险保障基金最优规模的积累规律及影响因素——基于动态视角和SYS-GMM方法的研究

保险保障基金是解决保险业风险的有力工具,但由于道德风险的存在,该基金并非越多越好,而是存在一个最优规模。本文首先通过最优控制方法构建关于保险保障基金最优规模积累规律的动态模型,通过恰当地控制各期基金的使用量,可以使其规模达到最优规模的要求。基于此,运用中国寿险公司和财险公司近10年来的面板数据,通过系统广义矩方法研究保险保障基金规模的影响因素。研究发现:财险业相对于寿险业更倾向通过保险保障基金方式进行风险管理;当保险公司采取目标集聚战略和差异化战略时,倾向提高保险保障基金的提取规模,而采取总成本领先战略则会降低提取规模;保险公司的竞争战略不同的组合方式会对保障基金的提取规模产生复杂的影响。     

Insurance law and incomplete contracts

We analyze how insurance law can mitigate moral hazard by allowing insurers to reduce or cancel coverage in some circumstances. We consider an incomplete contract setting in which the insurer may obtain information related to the policyholder's behavior through a costly audit of the circumstances of the loss. Court decisions are based on a standard of proof such as the balance of probabilities. We show that an optimal insurance law brings efficiency gains compared to the no-audit case. We also highlight the conditions under which the burden of proof should be on the insured, provided that insurers are threatened with sanctions for bad faith.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Increasing Deductibles on Moral Hazard

Using information on timing and number of claims in a unique data set pertaining to comprehensive automobile insurance with the increasing deductible provision in Taiwan, the authors provide new evidence for moral hazard. Time-varying correlations between the choice of the insurance coverage and claim occurrence are significantly positive and exhibit a smirk pattern across policy months. This empirical finding supports the existence of asymmetric information. A subsample estimation depicts insured drivers' significant responses to increasing deductibles, which implies the existence of moral hazard. According to the probit regression results, the increasing deductible makes policyholders who have ever filed claims less likely to file additional claims later in the policy year. The empirical findings strongly support the notion that the increasing deductible provision helps control moral hazard.     

On the design of optimal health insurance contracts under ex post moral hazard

We analyze the design of optimal medical insurance under ex post moral hazard, i.e., when illness severity cannot be observed by insurers and policyholders decide for themselves on their health expenditures. The trade-off between ex ante risk sharing and ex post incentive compatibility is analyzed in an optimal revelation mechanism under hidden information and risk aversion. The optimal contract provides partial insurance at the margin, with a deductible when insurers’ rates are affected by a positive loading, and it may also include an upper limit on coverage. The potential to audit the health state leads to an upper limit on out-of-pocket expenses.     

Disease‐Specific Moral Hazard and Optimal Health Insurance Design for Physician Services

This article analyzes disease‐specific moral hazard effects in the demand for physician office visits and explores whether optimal insurance for physician services should be designed to have disease‐specific cost sharing. Generalized method of moments is implemented to address the endogeneity of private health insurance, and the nonnegativity and the discreteness of physician services use. The results indicate that the moral hazard effect varies considerably across disease‐specific specialist care. The strongest moral hazard (for no‐condition related specialist visits) is almost twice the moral hazard effect of the weakest (for chronic condition related specialist visits). Although the findings indicate some variation in the moral hazard effect across disease‐specific general practitioner visits, the variation is less considerable. The main policy implication is that optimal insurance for physician services should be designed to have differential cost sharing based on disease status rather than to have uniform cost sharing.     

Hidden insurance in a moral‐hazard economy

We analyze the general equilibrium of an economy in which a competitive industry produces nonexclusive insurance services. The equilibrium is inefficient because insurance contracts cannot control moral hazard, and welfare can be improved by policies that reduce insurance by increasing its price above marginal cost. We discuss how insurance production costs that exceed expected claim payments interact with moral hazard in determining the equilibrium's inefficiency, and show that these costs can make insurance premia so actuarially unfair as to validate the standard first‐order conditions we exploit in our analysis.     

医疗保险、健康异质性与精准脱贫——基于贫困脆弱性的分析

医疗保险能否有效减少贫困,尚未达成共识。本文利用CHARLS全国调查数据,基于资产度量个体的贫困脆弱性(即陷贫概率),实证分析医疗保险参保行为及其保障水平对贫困脆弱性的影响。研究表明,参与医疗保险和提高医疗保险保障水平的减贫效果都存在健康异质性,对健康状况差的群体有显著的减贫效果,而对健康状况好的群体减贫效果不显著。此外,本文证实了改善劳动供给是医疗保险减贫的重要中介渠道之一。     

Testing for Adverse Selection in Insurance Markets

This article reviews and evaluates the empirical literature on adverse selection in insurance markets. We focus on empirical work that seeks to test the basic coverage–risk prediction of adverse selection theory—that is, that policyholders who purchase more insurance coverage tend to be riskier. The analysis of this body of work, we argue, indicates that whether such a correlation exists varies across insurance markets and pools of insurance policies. We discuss various reasons why a coverage–risk correlation may not be found in some pools of insurance policies. The presence of a coverage–risk correlation can be explained either by moral hazard or adverse selection, and we discuss methods for distinguishing between them. Finally, we review the evidence on learning by policyholders and insurers.     

The pricing of deposit insurance considering bankruptcy costs and closure policies

The paper aims to study the pricing issue of deposit insurance with explicit consideration of bankruptcy costs and closure policies. Full coverage from deposit insurance is imposed by many regulators to stabilize the banking system in the current financial crisis, despite of the potential moral hazard problems. We argue that bankruptcy cost is an important factor in pricing deposit insurance, especially when the insured institution is insolvent. Applying the isomorphic relationship between deposit insurance and put option, we first derive a closed-form solution for the pricing model with bankruptcy costs and closure policies. Then, we modify the barrier option approach to price the deposit insurance in which the bankruptcy cost is set as a function of asset return volatility and more realistic closure policies considering possible forbearance can be accounted for. The properties of the models are supported by numerical simulations and are consistent with the risk-based pricing scheme.     

Pure Versus Mutual Health Insurance: Evidence From Swedish Historical Data

Using data from voluntary Swedish health insurance societies 1902‐1910, this article analyzes the coexistence of pure and mutual insurance societies where pure societies are characterized by charging ex ante premiums only while mutuals in addition charge ex post assessments. On average, mutual insurance societies are found to be larger and to offer greater insurance coverage per member. Pure insurance societies have, on average, higher insurance coverage per day, greater mean levels of moral hazard controls, a higher mean number of policy categories, and greater longevity.     

农业保险可以减轻自然灾害对农业经济的负面影响吗?

建立融合自然灾害、农业保险以及道德风险的动态模型.模型显示:自然灾害会降低农业产出,而农业保险可以降低自然灾害对农业生产的负面影响,但前提是道德风险的影响较小.实证表明,每增加1元农业保险保费对应的保障水平,可以降低由自然灾害导致的第一产业产出约8.19元的损失.同时,未发现农业保险市场在省级加总层面存在显著的道德风险.     

Impact of regulatory interactions on bank capital structure

This article examines a bank's optimal capital structure and risk-taking decisions in a regulated environment. We focus on the interactive nature of the Fed's collateralized discount window lending and the FDIC's deposit insurance. Such regulatory interactions are shown to have nonlinear and nonuniform impacts on the bank's leverage and risk-taking decisions. Thus, bank moral hazard problems may persist, even when banks are charged risk-adjusted deposit insurance premia and are also subject to market discipline through subordinate debt. Our analysis yields several new policy implications about the design and pricing of bank regulations.     

Rediscounting under Aggregate Risk with Moral Hazard

Freeman (1999) proposes a model in which discount window lending and open‐market operations have different effects. This is important because in most of the literature these policies are indistinguishable. However, Freeman's argument that the central bank should absorb losses associated with default to provide risk sharing stands in stark contrast to the concern that central banks should limit their exposure to credit risk. We extend Freeman's model by introducing moral hazard. With moral hazard, the central bank should avoid absorbing losses and Freeman's argument breaks down. However, we show that policies resembling discount window lending and open‐market operations can still be distinguished in this new framework. The optimal policy is for the central bank to make a restricted number of creditors compete for funds. By restricting the number of agents, the central bank can limit the moral hazard problem. By making them compete with each other, the central bank can exploit market information that reveals the state of the economy.     

Medical Insurance Coverage and Health Production Efficiency

Conventional economic theory predicts that medical insurance coverage causes an inefficient production of health because of  ex ante  and  ex post  moral hazard effects. However, no research has empirically examined the magnitude of the inefficiency. This study empirically examines the impact of medical insurance on the technical efficiency of health production at the metropolitan level. The underlying health production function allows for preventive care, curative care, and behavioral factors. Data envelopment analysis determines relative technical efficiency. The multiple regression results indicate that insurance coverage generates inefficiency but the efficiency loss appears to be relatively small on the extensive margin.     

Inherent Virtue or Inevitable Evil: The Effects of Directors' and Officers' Insurance on Firm Value

Whether directors’ and officers’ (D&O) insurance improves firm value is a controversial issue. We perform a literature review about the effect of D&O insurance and find mixed results. The proponents of D&O insurance believe it enhances corporate monitoring and improves firm value, while the opponents of D&O insurance argue that it creates a moral hazard problem and diminishes firm value. Against this backdrop, we argue that the trade‐off between the monitoring and moral hazard effects depends on the information acquired by the outside directors. Using a sample of listed Canadian firms, we find that (1) a change in D&O insurance coverage has no net effect on a firm's subsequent value when we ignore the information acquired by outside directors, (2) an increase in D&O insurance coverage improves a firm's subsequent value when the outside directors are well informed, and (3) an increase in D&O insurance coverage reduces a firm's subsequent value when the outside directors are poorly informed. Our findings are robust to endogeneity checks and have important implications for the regulation of D&O insurance.     

存在道德风险的医院等级选择与最优公共医疗保险合同

通过构造一个医疗服务系统的均衡模型,分析了医院等级、居民道德风险与最优公共医疗保险合同之间的关系。研究表明只存在公共医疗保险体系时,如果政府部门之间缺乏协调机制,各自为政,中国的公共医疗保险支付方式将不能实现社会最优并消除道德风险;公共医疗保险合同可能引起社会福利的损失或引致道德风险。政府应该完善医院评价系统,对不同医院的水平给予准确的评级,特别是要建立起政府各部门之间的协调机制;理顺医疗服务价格体系;鼓励更多市场参与主体进入医疗保险领域,建立合理的疾病风险分担机制。     

BANK REGULATIONS,CAPITAL STRUCTURE,AND RISK

The joint influence of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) discount window credit and reserve requirements and FDIC's deposit insurance on a bank's optimal capital structure and asset risk choices is analyzed. The specific seniority of such regulatory claims, and potentially strong negative correlation between bank asset classes, significantly alters our traditional view of such regulatory influences on bank behavior. I find that the discount window's presence does not always prompt bank risk taking and leverage, but it does partially offset such incentives under certain conditions. In addition to its cost, a reserve requirement provides the bank with an indirect subsidy that may encourage deposit funding. Thus, regulatory reforms, such as the FDIC Improvement Act of 1991, which curtail banks' access to the discount window, may not always be appropriate to resolve a bank's incentive for moral hazard behavior. The Fed's presence needs to be more comprehensively examined to design effective regulatory policy.     

Optimal insurance and reinsurance policies chosen jointly in the individual risk model

The paper studies the so-called individual risk model where both a policy of per-claim insurance and a policy of reinsurance are chosen jointly by the insurer in order to maximize his/her expected utility. The insurance and reinsurance premiums are defined by the expected value principle. The problem is solved under additional constraints on the reinsurer’s risk and the residual risk of the insured. It is shown that the solution to the problem is the following: The optimal reinsurance is a modification of stop-loss reinsurance policy, so-called stop-loss reinsurance with an upper limit; the optimal insurer’s indemnity is a combination of stop-loss- and deductible policies. The results are illustrated by a numerical example for the case of exponential utility function. The effects of changing model parameters on optimal insurance and reinsurance policies are considered.