The Importance of Corporate Foreign Debt in Managing Exchange Rate Exposures in Non‐Financial Companies

This empirical study of the exchange rate exposure management of Danish non‐financial firms listed on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange shows that debt denominated in foreign currency (‘foreign debt’) is a very important alternative to the use of currency derivatives. The results show that the relative importance of foreign debt is positively related to (1) the extent of foreign subsidiaries, (2) the relative value of assets in place, and (3) the debt ratio. The pivotal role of time horizon is emphasised. These findings are important to firms in other countries with open economies.     

Non‐Audit Service Fees and Financial Reporting Quality: A Meta‐Analysis

Auditing as a corporate governance mechanism has attracted considerable research attention. Because of the information asymmetry between corporate managers and outside shareholders, auditors are hired to provide independent assurance that financial statements are prepared following generally accepted accounting principles. The credibility of such assurance depends on the independence, both in fact and in appearance, of the auditor. Over the years, however, the independence of auditors has come under increased scrutiny because of their joint provision of both audit and non‐audit services. A sizable literature on the impact of non‐audit fees on financial reporting quality has developed. The evidence from this literature, however, remains inconclusive. This paper provides a meta‐analysis of the available literature by assessing (a) the net effect of non‐audit fees on financial reporting quality, and (b) whether there is homogeneity in the financial reporting quality proxies used in the extant literature. Findings suggest that the level of client‐specific non‐audit fees is associated with reduced financial reporting quality. However, the underlying studies used to conduct this meta‐analysis are not homogenous.     

Using Four‐Moment Tail Risk to Examine Financial and Commodity Instrument Diversification

We consider the effect of higher moments on diversification, since most assets possess a potential for tail losses. In particular, we examine higher‐moment Value‐at‐Risk measures for individual instruments and diversified portfolios. We find that a naïve futures portfolio is consistently superior to common stock indexes. As few as ten randomly chosen instruments diversify away 85% of the unsystematic four‐moment tail risk. We also compare the two‐ and four‐moment tail risks for different size portfolios. Finally, the tail risk for naïve portfolios varies much less over time than other portfolios.     

Tax‐Aided Financial Services Companies and the Cost of Capital

Over the past two decades, the governments of several European countries have implemented special tax devices to attract the finance centres of multinational companies. This paper determines how the cost of capital for investments made by multinationals is affected by the tax regimes, bringing into play the Irish financial services company, the Belgian co‐ordination centre, the Dutch finance company and the Luxemburg company coupled with a Swiss finance branch. It gives evidence that intermediation of a tax‐aided services company in the financing scheme of a foreign subsidiary provides an important tax saving. However, the home and source countries' tax regimes influence the hierarchy of the less heavily taxed treasury and finance centres. The methodology relies on the marginal effective tax rates theory and consists of an extension of Alworth's (1988) model to include treasury centres.     

Predicting Long‐Term Financial Returns: VAR versus DSGE Model—A Horse Race

This paper considers a U.S. institutional investor who is implementing a long‐term portfolio allocation using forecasts of financial returns. We compare the predictive performance of two competing macrofinance models—an unrestricted vector autoRegression (VAR) and a fully‐structural dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model—for horizons up to 15 years. Although the performances are similar for short horizons, the DSGE model outperforms the VAR at forecasting financial returns in the long term. This model also generates substantially higher Sharpe ratios. Although it contains fewer unknown parameters, it benefits from economically grounded restrictions that help anchor financial returns in the long term.     

Predicting Private Company Failures in Italy Using Financial and Non‐financial Information

The study assesses the use of non‐financial information in predicting financial distress in private companies by developing credit risk models tailored to Italian private companies. The in‐sample and out‐of‐sample prediction test results are indicative of the incremental predictive ability of the two new non‐financial variables, that is, number of shareholders and number of subsidiaries, over accounting ratios and other widely used non‐financial information, including firm age and industry dummies. To be more specific, number of shareholders and number of subsidiaries are negatively associated with private company failures, and the models augmented by the two non‐financial variables improve forecasting performance from acceptable discrimination to excellent discrimination over one‐ to three‐year time horizons.     

Use of Derivatives and Analysts’ Forecasts: New Evidence from Non‐financial Brazilian Companies

This study investigates whether market analysts’ forecasts are influenced by the presence of derivative financial instruments in listed firms. From a sample of firms comprising 1173 derivative users and 7797 non‐users for the 2006–14 period, the results indicate the existence of less error behaviour (bias) on earnings per share forecasts for derivative user firms compared to non‐user firms. This finding suggests that these instruments may be used to protect businesses and provide greater stability in the results of companies that use them. The presence of derivative financial instruments is increasing among listed firms, and management can use them for hedging or speculation (thus mitigating or increasing risk). The literature contains few studies on this issue, and the general understanding relies on the assumption that derivative financial instruments provide relevant information for decision making.     

Return Characteristics of State‐Owned and Non‐State‐Owned Chinese A Shares

This study examines and compares stock returns and volatilities between state‐owned (SO) and non‐state‐owned (NSO) firms on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges. Results vary significantly by exchange. Returns for both firm types, on both exchanges, exhibit negative skewness and high kurtosis inconsistent with a normal distribution. Returns display significant autocorrelation, even after the removal of lower‐order effects. Granger causality tests reveal that Shenzhen returns significantly lead Shanghai returns. Within both exchanges, SO firms lead NSO firms. Neither SO nor NSO firm shares are dominated in terms of second‐order stochastic dominance.     

Regulatory Capital Charges for Too‐Connected‐to‐Fail Institutions: A Practical Proposal

The recent financial crisis has highlighted once more that interconnectedness in the financial system is a major source of systemic risk. I suggest a practical way to levy regulatory capital charges based on the degree of interconnectedness among financial institutions. Namely, the charges are based on the institution's incremental contribution to systemic risk based on a risk budgeting approach. The imposition of such capital charges could go a long way towards internalizing the negative externalities associated with too‐connected‐to‐fail institutions and providing managerial incentives to strengthen an institution's solvency position, and avoid too much homogeneity and excessive reliance on the same counterparties in the financial industry.     

A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short‐Term Unemployment

This paper examines the behavior of U.S. core inflation, as measured by the weighted median of industry price changes. We find that core inflation since 1985 is well‐explained by an expectations‐augmented Phillips curve in which expected inflation is measured with professional forecasts and labor‐market slack is captured by the short‐term unemployment rate. We also find that expected inflation was backward‐looking until the late 1990s, but then became strongly anchored at the Federal Reserve's target. This shift in expectations changed the relationship between inflation and unemployment from an accelerationist Phillips curve to a level‐level Phillips curve. Our specification explains why high unemployment during the Great Recession did not reduce inflation greatly: partly because inflation expectations were anchored, and partly because short‐term unemployment rose less sharply than total unemployment.     

商业银行与金融租赁合作模式探讨

一、商业银行和金融租赁合作的必要性与可行性分析 1、功能上的互补 我国国有商业银行长期以来一直担负着企业设备长期贷款的重任,但在目前的经济环境之下,设备抵押担保的形式不能保证抵押物变现后所得资金可以全部优先受偿.租赁业务和银行信贷业务一样,都具有债权融资的功能,但租赁融资债权是一种不可单方撤消的、以物为载体的债权,出租人作为债权人,拥有租赁物的所有权,可以更好地锁定风险.正是因为租赁业务集债权和物权于一身的特性,使租赁成为货币市场、证券市场和设备市场之间进行资本形态转化和传导的有效机制.     

Financing Shipping Companies and Shipping Operations: A Risk‐Management Perspective

Shipping has always been a volatile and cyclical business. The extreme changes in revenues, operating cash flows, and asset values during the recent financial crises have upset the usual means of financing shipping companies. While bank debt will remain important in the future, the new regulatory environment has been forcing shipping banks to shift these risks from their balance sheets to capital markets through instruments such as loan securitization. As a result, the shipping industry will increasingly look to capital markets for external funds. And shipping banks are likely to change from being commercial bank lending institutions to becoming more like investment banks that arrange a variety of financing solutions, including high yield bonds or public equity. Risk management will be central to shipping companies in this new environment. Shipping companies can manage their own risks by modifying operations, employing freight and vessel price derivatives, or adjusting their capital structures. To arrive at the value‐maximizing combination of these three basic methods, they must decide which risks to bear, which to manage internally, and which to transfer to the capital markets. These decisions require shipping financial managers to assess the effect of each risk on firm value, understand how each contributes to total risk, and determine the most cost‐effective way to limit that risk to an acceptable level.     

Commitment and Lapse Behavior in Long‐Term Insurance: A Case Study

This article presents a case study of a portfolio of individual long‐term insurance contracts sold by a Spanish mutual company. We describe the risk levels, the rating structure, and the implied cross‐subsidies on a portfolio of policies providing health, life, and long‐term care insurance. We show evidence of reclassification risk through the history of disability spells. We also analyze the lapse behavior and seek to provide a rationale for the portfolio’s dynamics. We discuss the lack of commitment from the policyholders (lapses) and from the mutual company (which took a run‐off decision). Finally, we draw conclusions regarding the design of such contracts.     

A CEO's Playbook for Creating Long‐Term Value: Ten Essential Resource Allocation Practices

A former CEO of a large and successful public company teams up with a former chief investment strategist and a well‐known academic to suggest ten practices for public companies intent on creating long‐run value:

1. Establish long‐term value creation as the company's governing objective.
2. Ensure that annual plans are consistent with the company's long‐term strategic plan.
3. Understand the expectations embedded in today's stock price.
4. Conduct a “premortem”—and so gain a solid understanding of what can go wrong—before making any large capital allocation decisions.
5. Incorporate the “outside view” in the strategic planning process.
6. Reallocate capital to its highest‐valued use, selling corporate assets that are worth more to or in the hands of others.
7. Prioritize strategies rather than individual projects.
8. Avoid public commitments, such as earnings guidance, that can compromise a company's capital allocation flexibility.
9. Apply best private equity practices to public companies.
10. CEOs should work closely with their boards of directors to set clear expectations for creating long‐term value.

These practices, as the authors note in closing, “are meant to provide a starting point for public companies in carrying out their mission of creating long‐run value—and in a way that earns the respect, if not the admiration and support, of all its important stakeholders.”     

Who Will Pay for Long‐Term Care in the UK? Projections Linking Macro‐ and Micro‐Simulation Models

The long‐term care funding system continues to attract much debate in the UK. We produce projections of state and private long‐term care expenditure and analyse the distributional impact of state‐financed care, through innovative linking of macro‐ and micro‐simulation models. Variant assumptions about life expectancy, dependency and care costs are examined and the impact of universal state‐financed (‘free’) personal care, based on need but not ability to pay, is investigated. We find that future long‐term care expenditure is subject to considerable uncertainty and is particularly sensitive to assumed future trends in real input costs. On a central set of assumptions, free personal care would, by 2051, increase public spending on long‐term care from 1.1 per cent of GDP to 1.3 per cent, or more if it generated an increase in demand. Among the care‐home population aged 85 or over, the immediate beneficiaries of free personal care would be those with relatively high incomes.