Does military expenditure crowd out health-care spending? Cross-country empirics

The trade-off between military expenditure and public health spending has remained an unsettled empirical issue. This paper investigates whether military expenditure has crowded out public health spending in 116 countries (including a subsample of 87 non-OECD countries) over the period 2000–2017. Through our system generalized methods of moments (GMM) estimations, we find that military expenditure, whether it is measured on a per-capita basis or as a proportion of total government expenditure, has a positive impact on the demand for health care. Nonetheless, we find a significant crowding-out effect of military expenditure on domestic government health spending by taking into account government fiscal capacity. The evidence we present supports the long-standing view that military expenditure has a particular ability to compete government financial resources away from publicly funded health spending. By interacting the military expenditure variable with income per capita, we find that an increase in income per capita has neutralized the crowding-out effect of military expenditure on domestic government health spending – less well-off countries stand to suffer most, and wealthy ones stand to suffer least, from the crowding-out effect. The crowding-out effect is statistically more specific to middle- and low-income countries in our samples.

     

Sources of labour productivity: a panel investigation of the role of military expenditure

The objective of this paper is to examine the effect of military expenditure on productivity performance in 70 countries, over the period 1989–2011. We employ the labour productivity as a measure of productivity, while the military burden is initially utilized as an indicator of the level of military expenditure within the framework of a transcendental production function. Applying the system GMM method, it is observed that defence expenditure exerts a negative and statistically significant effect on labour productivity. The negative impact of military expenditure still holds, when an alternative measure of military spending is introduced into the model. The main policy implication of these results is that the overall productivity would be expected to improve, if military expenditures are replaced by civilian expenditures.     

The conflict mitigating effects of trade in the India-Pakistan case

We examine whether greater inter-state trade, democracy and reduced military spending lower belligerence between India and Pakistan, beginning with a theoretical model covering the opportunity costs of conflict in terms of trade losses and security spending, as well as the costs of making concessions to rivals. Conflict between the two nations is best understood in a multivariate framework where variables such as economic performance, integration with rest of the world, bilateral trade, military expenditure, democracy orientation and population are simultaneously considered. Our empirical investigation based on time series econometrics from 1950 to 2005 suggests that reduced bilateral trade, greater military expenditure, less development expenditure, lower levels of democracy, lower growth rates and less general trade openness are all conflict enhancing. Globalization, or a greater openness to international trade with the rest of the world, is the most significant driver of a liberal peace, rather than a common democratic orientation.     

Unintended Consequences: Does Aid Promote Arms Races?*

Using global data for the period 1960–99, we model military expenditure. Neighbours’ military spending and development aid are important determinants of military expenditure. An implication of the model is that there are regional arms races which are fuelled by aid. Potentially, aid is encouraging a ‘regional public bad’. There may, however, be an offsetting public good effect if military spending deters rebellions. In a simultaneous equation model, we find no deterrence effect of spending on the risk of civil war. Hence, there appears to be no regional public good effect offsetting the public bad arising from a neighbourhood arms race.     

Military expenditure in post-conflict societies

Post-conflict situations face a high risk of reversion to conflict. We investigate the effect of military expenditure by the government during the first decade post-conflict on the risk of reversion. We contrast two theories as to the likely effects. In one, military spending deters conflict by reducing the prospects of rebel success. In the other it acts as a signal to the rebels of government intentions. In the signalling model, low military spending signals that the government intends to adhere to the terms of the peace settlement and so reduces the risk of renewed rebellion. We investigate the effects of post-conflict military spending on the risk of conflict, using our existing models of military expenditure and of conflict risk. We find that, consistent with the signalling model, high military spending post-conflict significantly increases the risk of renewed conflict. This effect of military spending is distinctive to post-conflict period, and becomes progressively more pronounced over the decade. Received: April 2004, Accepted: December 2004, JEL Classification: H56, F35, O10     

Military expenditure and economic development: An endogenous growth perspective

This paper attempts to analyse the interrelationships between government and military expenditure and economic growth in particular, and between security and development in general, in a new framework. It has three novel features. First, the impact of military spending (as well as any other government spending which has similar externalities) is studied in an endogenous growth framework unlike most of the previous research in the field. Second, growth, welfare and security effects are studied simultaneously. Third, simulation studies are made for specific countries to capture long-term steady state effects which are difficult to analyze in longitudinal case studies.     

Models of military expenditure

A brief review of the extensive empirical literature devoted to explaining levels of military expenditure indicates a wide variety of unreconciled results. However, comparing the alternative models is not straightforward. This paper uses British post-war military expenditures to illustrate some of the methodological issues involved in model comparison, evaluation and selection. Starting from two published models for the UK, a systematic specification search leads to a new model, which dominates alternative specifications, passes a wide range of misspecification tests, and also fits well to French data.     

On the role of government in a stochastically growing open economy

The relationship between the size of government, economic growth, and volatility in a small open economy is analyzed. First, we characterize the stochastic equilibrium for a centrally planned economy, contrasting it with a closed economy. The role of government consumption expenditure both as a stabilizing and a destabilizing factor is discussed. The optimal size of government is derived and we find that an open economy will have a larger government if and only if it is a net creditor. Second, the stochastic equilibrium in a decentralized economy is characterized and the optimal tax structure derived. Finally, the role of government production expenditure and its impact on risk is briefly discussed.     

应急物流中军事运输优化决策

在应急物流中,军事运输占有重要的地位,直接影响到应急物流的成败。运用运筹学的理论和方法,充分考虑应急物流的环境因素,把握影响应急物流中军事运输决策的各个要素,综合分析军事运输中的任务指派、运输方式的确定、运输路线的选择,并建立对应的数学模型,进行军事运输决策,制定出最优或近似最优的物资运输方案,为军事运输的决策过程提供了一种新的方法。     

生产性公共支出、最优税收与经济增长

本文在严成樑和龚六堂(2009)的基础上将消费性公共支出内生到家庭的效用函数中,在一个DGE框架下求解竞争性均衡问题,以此来考察生产性公共支出和税收对经济增长的影响。结论表明,生产性支出具有正的产出效应;生产性支出对家庭私人消费、公共消费的影响取决于政府设定的平滑税率。根据经验分析可知,生产性支出对经济的促进作用不如人口效应大,其中,基本建设支出并未对经济起到促进作用,可能已凸显出过度投资、重复建设等问题,这一现象在东西部地区更为明显;教育支出的增加促进了经济增长,并且在东中部地区较明显,而在西部地区仍未体现出来。     

逆向装备物流管理信息系统的设计与实现方法研究

目前,加快逆向装备物流的发展是提高军费使用效能、节约资源的必由之路.本文探讨了基于C/S和B/S模式下的逆向装备管理信息系统的设计方案和实现方法,为加快我军逆向装备物流信息化建设进行了积极的探索.     

关于新常态下政府财政支出绩效管理的思考

新常态下,我国社会经济不断发展,社会主义建设也在不断推进,城镇化建设逐渐完善,政府部门的财政支出也在不断加大.为了进一步实现对政府财政支出的优化管理,针对政府财政支出进行的绩效管理体系建设也逐渐铺开.为了有效提升政府财政支出的绩效管理,以及政府财政支出的工作效率和工作质量,需要从绩效管理角度对财政支出管理进行优化和创新性改革.     

试论军地物流一体化的内涵及着力点

为最大程度地发挥军地物流资源的综合效益,充分发挥各种保障力量和保障手段的互补优势和整体效能,实现军地物流一体化保障,通过对军地物流现状、战时物流保障的需要以及军事物流费用等问题进行分析,提出了加快相关立法和理论研究、推进军地物流技术标准的一体化、选择第三方优化利用军外物流资源等军地物流一体化的对策。     

The Economic Effects Of The End Of The Cold War

The end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact have raised a host of new questions. Will there be a Peace Dividend: more security and more money to spend on other things, or a Peace Penalty: mass unemployment in the arms industry and financial difficulty for many leading high-technology firms? Will there even be Peace at all or will there be instead a new ‘Second World War’ as the old Second World of the Centrally Planned Economies relapses into internecine nationalist conflict? Many of these questions are unanswerable, but this paper reviews what is known about the likely trend in military spending and its economic impact on Western Economies. It examines the strategic context which will determine the size of the reductions in military expenditure; the policy response which will determine how governments adjust their budgetary stance to reduced military outlays; and the macroeconomic and industrial impact of these changes.     

Austerity and military expenditures in developing countries: The case of Venezuela

In times of economic austerity, governments faced with declining revenues and political restraints on increasing taxes, must resort to major budgetary cutbacks. However, relatively little is known about how the governments of developing countries make expenditure decisions, or perhaps more importantly, how they trade off between consumption and investment or between functional categories of expenditures. Some sectors are often thought to be more vulnerable than others to reductions; social sectors are usually considered more and defense sectors less susceptible. An analysis of Venezuelan military expenditures over the 1950–1983 period confirms the fact that a high level of stability exists in the country's pattern of defense expenditures and that during the country's current period of austerity, defense expenditures are likely to be cutback less than other functional expenditures such as health, education and economic development.     

On minimizing the welfare cost of fiscal policy: evidence from South Asia

This study evaluates whether India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka minimized the welfare cost of their fiscal policies? For this purpose it tests tax smoothing hypothesis and finds that there is a weak tax smoothing in Pakistan and Sri Lanka whilst fiscal policy in India has not been conducted in an optimal fashion in accordance with the predictions of the hypothesis. The difference in results is due to difference in budget deficits as the deficits of Pakistan and Sri Lanka are higher as compare to India so they are careful to reduce volatility in budget deficits by trying to keep close correspondence between taxes and expenditures while India, with comparatively less deficit, was more careful regarding its debt. Therefore, to minimize the cost a close correspondence between permanent expenditure and taxes are required. In this context the best policy option would be an initiation of prompt action program of tax base expansions and expenditure rationalization.     

军事油料输送蚁群算法

针对军队油料输送的特点,采用改进蚁群算法,引入云模型理论对参数进行动态调整,最后提出基于安全系数的军队油料输送优化方法。实例求解表明,该方法可以有效、快速地求得军队油料输送问题的全局最优解。     

Optimal mechanism design when both allocative inefficiency and expenditure inefficiency matter

We characterize the structure of optimal assignment rules when both allocative inefficiency and expenditure inefficiency (e.g., rent-seeking) are present. We find that the optimal structure critically depends on how the hazard rate of the value distribution behaves, and that it is often optimal to use probabilistic assignment rules so that the winner of the object is not always the one with the highest valuation. We also find that the inefficiency of the optimal assignment rule decreases as the variability of the value distribution increases.     

Tax smoothing in a business cycle model with capital-skill complementarity

This paper undertakes a normative investigation of the quantitative properties of optimal tax smoothing in a business cycle model with state contingent debt, capital-skill complementarity and endogenous skill acquisition under technology and public expenditure shocks. We find that skilled and unskilled labour tax smoothing maintain quantitatively under externalities and exogenous shocks in skill acquisition, as well as when the relative skill supply is exogenously determined. We further find that the government finds it optimal to reduce both the size of the wedge between the marginal rates of substitution and transformation in skill attainment in the long-run and the standard deviation of this wedge over the business cycle. This is achieved by subsidising skill creation and taxing both types of labour income.     

Reprint to: Infrastructure provision and macroeconomic performance

This paper studies the differences between private and government provision of infrastructure. Capital utilization decisions and their differential role in determining market prices for capital goods under the two regimes of infrastructure provision serve as a critical transmission mechanism for fiscal policy. A subsidy to private providers of infrastructure is preferable to direct government provision irrespective of how the subsidy or expenditure is financed. The case for private provision is much stronger in economies characterized by high levels of congestion. The choice between private and government provision also has a crucial effect on the design of optimal fiscal policy.