Optimally biased Tullock contests

This paper examines optimally biased Tullock contests. We consider a multi-player Tullock contest in which players differ in their prize valuations. The designer is allowed to impose identity-dependent treatments – i.e., multiplicative biases – to vary their relative competitiveness. The literature has been limited, because a closed-form solution to the equilibrium is in general unavailable when the number of contestants exceeds two, which nullifies the usual implicit programming approach. We develop an algorithmic technique adapted from the general approach of Fu and Wu (2020) and obtain a closed-form solution to the optimum that addresses a broad array of design objectives. We further analyze a resource allocation problem in a research tournament and adapt Fu and Wu’s (2020) approach to this noncanonical setting. Our analysis paves the way for future research in this vein.     

Optimally combining censored and uncensored datasets

We develop a simple semiparametric framework for combining censored and uncensored samples so that the resulting estimators are consistent, asymptotically normal, and use all information optimally. No nonparametric smoothing is required to implement our estimators. To illustrate our results in an empirical setting, we show how to estimate the effect of changes in compulsory schooling laws on age at first marriage, a variable that is censored for younger individuals. Results from a small simulation experiment suggest that the estimator proposed in this paper can work very well in finite samples.     

对资源分配状态最优化的一种讨论——严格局部Pareto最佳的一个充分条件

经济活动就是使用给定的资源及已具备的生产技术进行生产。生产出来的财为构成这一经济的个人所消费。生产出来的财的一种分配结果就形成了一个经济状态,即资源分配状态。这个分配状态是否是有效率的呢?又怎样去评价这个分配状态的效率性呢?经济学家们经常使用pareto最佳化这一概念。     

Matching rules

Institutions often utilize matching rules to achieve cooperative outcomes. However, the equilibrium induced by a matching rule may not be socially optimal. After presenting the case in which matching rules yield privately and socially optimal levels of cooperation, this article identifies the conditions which generate inefficient cooperation. Matching rules undershoot (i.e. parties cooperate less than is socially optimal) in one group of cases. In a second, more puzzling case, matching rules overshoot (i.e. parties that interact under a matching constraint are induced to cooperate more than is socially optimal). This paper identifies the conditions for such occurrences. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Social indicators and social accounts

This paper defines “social indicators” as statistics which have two denning characteristics. They are, first, measures of direct normative interest; that is, what the economist would call measures of “welfare” and “illfare”. Most existing government statistics are not of this type, because a large proportion of existing statistics are measures of government or other institutional activity, produced as a by-product of accounting or administrative routine. The second defining characteristic of a social indicator is that it should fit into a systematic scheme of classification or aggregation which would make possible a balanced assessment of socio-economic progress or retrogression in some broad area, as well as disaggregated and detailed study of particular problems.

The work in government on social indicators was designed in part to meet the needs of Toward a Social Report, a preliminary study of the condition of American society issued by the U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (Superintendent of Documents, Wash. D.C. 20402; 1969). Social indicators can also fit, with other statistics, into a set of “policy accounts” or scheme of social accounting, which would relate social expenditures to the social indicator they were designed to affect. This would encourage broadened cost-benefit analysis and rational public decision-making.     

Targets,indicators and milestones

Area-based initiatives are a major feature of the new public policy agenda of the Labour government in the UK. They are aimed at key policy goals of combating social exclusion and improving the operation of public services, through the encouragement of partnership and participation. However, the delivery of programmes has been heavily influenced by performance management and the use of targets, indicators and milestones to monitor activity. This is creating contradictory pressures on the managers and practitioners within programmes. These issues are discussed and their impact in one area-based activity (the Health Action Zones) is explored.     

Limiting Dictatorial rules

We consider the preference aggregation problem in infinite societies. In our model, there are arbitrarily many agents and alternatives, and admissible coalitions may be restricted to lie in an algebra. In this framework (which includes the standard one), we characterize, in terms of Strict Neutrality, the Ultrafilter Property of preference aggregation rules. Based on this property, we define the concept of Limiting Dictatorial rules, which are characterized by the existence of arbitrarily small decisive coalitions. We show that, in infinite societies which can be well approximated by finite ones, any Arrovian rule is limiting.     

差异化HR管理的"四项基本原则"

差异化HR管理,核心人才就应该养尊处优吗? A公司是一家大型的销售企业,员工20000多人,在广东地区占有60％的市场份额。公司高层认为,只要能留住占公司20%的核心人才,就可以保证其在市场中的竞争优势。于是,A公司决定对这20％的核心员工实行差异化的管理策略,给以特别的待遇。公司规定要为核心人才提供竞争性的薪酬福利,提供更多的培训与晋升的机会,为每一位核心人才设计了职业生     

Binary effectivity rules

A social choice rule (SCR) is a collection of social choice correspondences, one for each agenda. An effectivity rule is a collection of effectivity functions, one for each agenda. We prove that every monotonic and superadditive effectivity rule is the effectivity rule of some SCR. A SCR is binary if it is rationalized by an acyclic binary relation. The foregoing result motivates our definition of a binary effectivity rule as the effectivity rule of some binary SCR. A binary SCR is regular if it satisfies unanimity, monotonicity, and independence of infeasible alternatives. A binary effectivity rule is regular if it is the effectivity rule of some regular binary SCR. We characterize completely the family of regular binary effectivity rules. Quite surprisingly, intrinsically defined von Neumann–Morgenstern solutions play an important role in this characterization.     

Monetary rules: Theory and practice

President Charles Plosser discusses his views on the benefits of a systematic and rule-like approach to monetary policy.President Plosser outlines his proposals to indicate the likely behavior of the policy rate based on a few different Taylor-like rules that have been consistent with past conduct of monetary policy and are robust to our uncertainties regarding the true economic model.President Plosser believes that the model created by the Federal Reserve Board staff, called FRB/US, seems to be a reasonable starting point for providing economic forecasts based on those rule-based policies; however, other models would be useful to consider.     

Competition,work rules and productivity

I develop a theory to explain why workers want restrictive work rules, those that induce wages to be paid for non-productive labor hours, and why competition reduces them. Work rules allow workers to maintain both high levels of employment and wages. They generate a fixed payment that transfers the firm׳s surplus to workers, which wages alone cannot do, making them robust to alternative modeling assumptions. Competition loosens work rules by reducing the firm׳s surplus, which increases productivity.     

Weakened WARP and top-cycle choice rules

We propose the following weakened version of WARP: if the decision maker selects an alternative x and rejects another alternative y in some context, he cannot select y and reject x in another context. This axiom is consistent with cyclic choices. It is necessary and sufficient for the choice from every subset A of a (finite) universal set X to coincide with the weak upper-contour set of the transitive closure of some fixed complete relation at some alternative in A. Adding further simple axioms forces the choice from each subset to coincide with the top cycle (in that subset) of some fixed tournament over the universal set.     

Demographic forecasts and fiscal policy rules

All quantitative evaluations of fiscal sustainability that include the effects of population ageing must utilize demographic forecasts. It is well known that such forecasts are uncertain, and some studies have taken that into account by using stochastic population projections jointly with economic models. We develop this approach further by introducing regular demographic forecast revisions that are embedded in stochastic population projections. This allows us to separate, for each demographic outcome and under different policy rules, the expected and realized effects of population ageing on public finances. In our Finnish application, demographic uncertainty produces a considerable sustainability risk. We consider policies that reduce the likelihood of getting highly indebted and demonstrate that, although demographic forecasts are uncertain, they contain enough information to be useful in forward-looking policy rules.     

Scoring rules and survey density forecasts

This article provides a practical evaluation of some leading density forecast scoring rules in the context of forecast surveys. We analyse the density forecasts of UK inflation obtained from the Bank of England’s Survey of External Forecasters, considering both the survey average forecasts published in the Bank’s quarterly Inflation Report, and the individual survey responses recently made available to researchers by the Bank. The density forecasts are collected in histogram format, and the ranked probability score (RPS) is shown to have clear advantages over other scoring rules. Missing observations are a feature of forecast surveys, and we introduce an adjustment to the RPS, based on the Yates decomposition, to improve its comparative measurement of forecaster performance in the face of differential non-response. The new measure, denoted RPS*, is recommended to analysts of forecast surveys.     

Uncertain tax rules and futures hedging

This paper considers the optimal futures hedging decision under uncertain tax treatment. If the Corn Products (CP) rule applies, gains or losses from futures trading can offset business gains or losses. However, under the Arkansas Best (AB) doctrine, offsetting is not allowed. We show that the risk neutral firm will not trade futures contracts if the probability the CP rule prevails is small. When the probability is sufficiently large, the firm will assume an underhedge. A risk averse firm is likely to trade, even if the AB rule prevails. As long as the CP ruling is not a sure thing, the firm will engage in underhedge. The effects of average business profits, the volatility of business profits, and risk aversion on the optimal futures position are provided. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

高等学校财务资源优化配置评价指标体系研究

本文认为,高等学校财务资源是高等教育赖以开展的物质基础,高等教育财务资源的状况与利用效率直接影响到高等教育的质量与水平。确立适应高校财务资源优化配置的评价指标体系,是了解高校资金使用状况的重要手段,也是改进高校管理工作的重要途径。     

Social indicators and urban policy analysis

Although there are natural ties among the social indicators movement, productivity studies and urban service delivery research, these have been overlooked. This paper presents a systems framework involving policy variables, performance variables, state variables, citizen behaviors and citizen perceptions, and linking government with citizen subsystems. Four hypotheses derived from this framework are presented for assessing citizens' perceptions of local government performance and of the state of their municipality. Ultimately such a framework should be useful for setting local policy and evaluating its impact.